NeurIPS 2023 论文列表

To check the accuracy of Bayesian computations, it is common to use rank-based simulation-based calibration (SBC). However, SBC has drawbacks: The test statistic is somewhat ad-hoc, interactions are difficult to examine, multiple testing is a challenge, and the resulting p-value is not a divergence metric. We propose to replace the marginal rank test with a flexible classification approach that learns test statistics from data. This measure typically has a higher statistical power than the SBC test and returns an interpretable divergence measure of miscalibration, computed from classification accuracy. This approach can be used with different data generating processes to address simulation-based inference or traditional inference methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational inference. We illustrate an automated implementation using neural networks and statistically-inspired features, and validate the method with numerical and real data experiments.

Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) is a nonparametric particle-based deterministic sampling algorithm. Despite its wide usage, understanding the theoretical properties of SVGD has remained a challenging problem. For sampling from a Gaussian target, the SVGD dynamics with a bilinear kernel will remain Gaussian as long as the initializer is Gaussian. Inspired by this fact, we undertake a detailed theoretical study of the Gaussian-SVGD, i.e., SVGD projected to the family of Gaussian distributions via the bilinear kernel, or equivalently Gaussian variational inference (GVI) with SVGD. We present a complete picture by considering both the mean-field PDE and discrete particle systems. When the target is strongly log-concave, the mean-field Gaussian-SVGD dynamics is proven to converge linearly to the Gaussian distribution closest to the target in KL divergence. In the finite-particle setting, there is both uniform in time convergence to the mean-field limit and linear convergence in time to the equilibrium if the target is Gaussian. In the general case, we propose a density-based and a particle-based implementation of the Gaussian-SVGD, and show that several recent algorithms for GVI, proposed from different perspectives, emerge as special cases of our unified framework. Interestingly, one of the new particle-based instance from this framework empirically outperforms existing approaches. Our results make concrete contributions towards obtaining a deeper understanding of both SVGD and GVI.

We provide the first finite-particle convergence rate for Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), a popular algorithm for approximating a probability distribution with a collection of particles. Specifically, whenever the target distribution is sub-Gaussian with a Lipschitz score, SVGD with $n$ particles and an appropriate step size sequence drives the kernel Stein discrepancy to zero at an order ${1/}{\sqrt{\log\log n}}$ rate. We suspect that the dependence on $n$ can be improved, and we hope that our explicit, non-asymptotic proof strategy will serve as a template for future refinements.