NeurIPS 2023 论文列表

Neural SDEs are continuous-time generative models for sequential data. State-of-the-art performance for irregular time series generation has been previously obtained by training these models adversarially as GANs. However, as typical for GAN architectures, training is notoriously unstable, often suffers from mode collapse, and requires specialised techniques such as weight clipping and gradient penalty to mitigate these issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel class of scoring rules on pathspace based on signature kernels and use them as objective for training Neural SDEs non-adversarially. By showing strict properness of such kernel scores and consistency of the corresponding estimators, we provide existence and uniqueness guarantees for the minimiser. With this formulation, evaluating the generator-discriminator pair amounts to solving a system of linear path-dependent PDEs which allows for memory-efficient adjoint-based backpropagation. Moreover, because the proposed kernel scores are well-defined for paths with values in infinite dimensional spaces of functions, our framework can be easily extended to generate spatiotemporal data. Our procedure significantly outperforms alternative ways of training Neural SDEs on a variety of tasks including the simulation of rough volatility models, the conditional probabilistic forecasts of real-world forex pairs where the conditioning variable is an observed past trajectory, and the mesh-free generation of limit order book dynamics.

Time series forecasting has played the key role in different industrial, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare domains. While existing literatures have designed many sophisticated architectures based on RNNs, GNNs, or Transformers, another kind of approaches based on multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) are proposed with simple structure, low complexity, and superior performance. However, most MLP-based forecasting methods suffer from the point-wise mappings and information bottleneck, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome this problem, we explore a novel direction of applying MLPs in the frequency domain for time series forecasting. We investigate the learned patterns of frequency-domain MLPs and discover their two inherent characteristic benefiting forecasting, (i) global view: frequency spectrum makes MLPs own a complete view for signals and learn global dependencies more easily, and (ii) energy compaction: frequency-domain MLPs concentrate on smaller key part of frequency components with compact signal energy. Then, we propose FreTS, a simple yet effective architecture built upon Frequency-domain MLPs for Time Series forecasting. FreTS mainly involves two stages, (i) Domain Conversion, that transforms time-domain signals into complex numbers of frequency domain; (ii) Frequency Learning, that performs our redesigned MLPs for the learning of real and imaginary part of frequency components. The above stages operated on both inter-series and intra-series scales further contribute to channel-wise and time-wise dependency learning. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world benchmarks (including 7 benchmarks for short-term forecasting and 6 benchmarks for long-term forecasting) demonstrate our consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/aikunyi/FreTS.

Generating high-fidelity time series data using generative adversarial networks (GANs) remains a challenging task, as it is difficult to capture the temporal dependence of joint probability distributions induced by time-series data. Towards this goal, a key step is the development of an effective discriminator to distinguish between time series distributions. We propose the so-called PCF-GAN, a novel GAN that incorporates the path characteristic function (PCF) as the principled representation of time series distribution into the discriminator to enhance its generative performance. On the one hand, we establish theoretical foundations of the PCF distance by proving its characteristicity, boundedness, differentiability with respect to generator parameters, and weak continuity, which ensure the stability and feasibility of training the PCF-GAN. On the other hand, we design efficient initialisation and optimisation schemes for PCFs to strengthen the discriminative power and accelerate training efficiency. To further boost the capabilities of complex time series generation, we integrate the auto-encoder structure via sequential embedding into the PCF-GAN, which provides additional reconstruction functionality. Extensive numerical experiments on various datasets demonstrate the consistently superior performance of PCF-GAN over state-of-the-art baselines, in both generation and reconstruction quality.

Above Ground Biomass is an important variable as forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change as they act as an efficient, natural and cost-effective carbon sink. Traditional field and airborne LiDAR measurements have been proven to provide reliable estimations of forest biomass. Nevertheless, the use of these techniques at a large scale can be challenging and expensive. Satellite data have been widely used as a valuable tool in estimating biomass on a global scale. However, the full potential of dense multi-modal satellite time series data, in combination with modern deep learning approaches, has yet to be fully explored. The aim of the "BioMassters" data challenge and benchmark dataset is to investigate the potential of multi-modal satellite data (Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI) to estimate forest biomass at a large scale using the Finnish Forest Centre's open forest and nature airborne LiDAR data as a reference. The performance of the top three baseline models shows the potential of deep learning to produce accurate and higher-resolution biomass maps. Our benchmark dataset is publically available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nascetti-a/BioMassters (doi:10.57967/hf/1009) and the implementation of the top three winning models are available at https://github.com/drivendataorg/the-biomassters.

We investigate the problem of reducing mistake severity for fine-grained classification. Fine-grained classification can be challenging, mainly due to the requirement of knowledge or domain expertise for accurate annotation. However, humans are particularly adept at performing coarse classification as it requires relatively low levels of expertise. To this end, we present a novel approach for Post-Hoc Correction called Hierarchical Ensembles (HiE) that utilizes label hierarchy to improve the performance of fine-grained classification at test-time using the coarse-grained predictions. By only requiring the parents of leaf nodes, our method significantly reduces avg. mistake severity while improving top-1 accuracy on the iNaturalist-19 and tieredImageNet-H datasets, achieving a new state-of-the-art on both benchmarks. We also investigate the efficacy of our approach in the semi-supervised setting. Our approach brings notable gains in top-1 accuracy while significantly decreasing the severity of mistakes as training data decreases for the fine-grained classes. The simplicity and post-hoc nature of HiE renders it practical to be used with any off-the-shelf trained model to improve its predictions further.

Time series analysis is widely used in extensive areas. Recently, to reduce labeling expenses and benefit various tasks, self-supervised pre-training has attracted immense interest. One mainstream paradigm is masked modeling, which successfully pre-trains deep models by learning to reconstruct the masked content based on the unmasked part. However, since the semantic information of time series is mainly contained in temporal variations, the standard way of randomly masking a portion of time points will seriously ruin vital temporal variations of time series, making the reconstruction task too difficult to guide representation learning. We thus present SimMTM, a Simple pre-training framework for Masked Time-series Modeling. By relating masked modeling to manifold learning, SimMTM proposes to recover masked time points by the weighted aggregation of multiple neighbors outside the manifold, which eases the reconstruction task by assembling ruined but complementary temporal variations from multiple masked series. SimMTM further learns to uncover the local structure of the manifold, which is helpful for masked modeling. Experimentally, SimMTM achieves state-of-the-art fine-tuning performance compared to the most advanced time series pre-training methods in two canonical time series analysis tasks: forecasting and classification, covering both in- and cross-domain settings.

Although we have witnessed great success of pre-trained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV), limited progress has been made for general time series analysis. Unlike NLP and CV where a unified model can be used to perform different tasks, specially designed approach still dominates in each time series analysis task such as classification, anomaly detection, forecasting, and few-shot learning. The main challenge that blocks the development of pre-trained model for time series analysis is the lack of a large amount of data for training. In this work, we address this challenge by leveraging language or CV models, pre-trained from billions of tokens, for time series analysis. Specifically, we refrain from altering the self-attention and feedforward layers of the residual blocks in the pre-trained language or image model. This model, known as the Frozen Pretrained Transformer (FPT), is evaluated through fine-tuning on all major types of tasks involving time series. Our results demonstrate that pre-trained models on natural language or images can lead to a comparable or state-of-the-art performance in all main time series analysis tasks, as illustrated in Figure1. We also found both theoretically and empirically that the self-attention module behaviors similarly to principle component analysis (PCA), an observation that helps explains how transformer bridges the domain gap and a crucial step towards understanding the universality of a pre-trained transformer. The code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Pretrained-LM-for-TSForcasting-C561.

Inferring causal structures from time series data is the central interest of many scientific inquiries. A major barrier to such inference is the problem of subsampling, *i.e.*, the frequency of measurement is much lower than that of causal influence. To overcome this problem, numerous methods have been proposed, yet either was limited to the linear case or failed to achieve identifiability. In this paper, we propose a constraint-based algorithm that can identify the entire causal structure from subsampled time series, without any parametric constraint. Our observation is that the challenge of subsampling arises mainly from hidden variables at the unobserved time steps. Meanwhile, every hidden variable has an observed proxy, which is essentially itself at some observable time in the future, benefiting from the temporal structure. Based on these, we can leverage the proxies to remove the bias induced by the hidden variables and hence achieve identifiability. Following this intuition, we propose a proxy-based causal discovery algorithm. Our algorithm is nonparametric and can achieve full causal identification. Theoretical advantages are reflected in synthetic and real-world experiments.

We present a $O(1)$-approximate fully dynamic algorithm for the $k$-median and $k$-means problems on metric spaces with amortized update time $\tilde O(k)$ and worst-case query time $\tilde O(k^2)$. We complement our theoretical analysis with the first in-depth experimental study for the dynamic $k$-median problem on general metrics, focusing on comparing our dynamic algorithm to the current state-of-the-art by Henzinger and Kale [ESA'20]. Finally, we also provide a lower bound for dynamic $k$-median which shows that any $O(1)$-approximate algorithm with $\tilde O(\text{poly}(k))$ query time must have $\tilde \Omega(k)$ amortized update time, even in the incremental setting.

The success of contrastive learning is well known to be dependent on data augmentation. Although the degree of data augmentations has been well controlled by utilizing pre-defined techniques in some domains like vision, time-series data augmentation is less explored and remains a challenging problem due to the complexity of the data generation mechanism, such as the intricate mechanism involved in the cardiovascular system. Moreover, there is no widely recognized and general time-series augmentation method that can be applied across different tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel data augmentation method for time-series tasks that aims to connect intra-class samples together, and thereby find order in the latent space. Our method builds upon the well-known data augmentation technique of mixup by incorporating a novel approach that accounts for the non-stationary nature of time-series data. Also, by controlling the degree of chaos created by data augmentation, our method leads to improved feature representations and performance on downstream tasks. We evaluate our proposed method on three time-series tasks, including heart rate estimation, human activity recognition, and cardiovascular disease detection. Extensive experiments against the state-of-the-art methods show that the proposed method outperforms prior works on optimal data generation and known data augmentation techniques in three tasks, reflecting the effectiveness of the presented method. The source code is available at double-blind policy.

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical science. Here, we consider this problem for a class of non-stationary time series. The structural causal model (SCM) of this type of time series, called the semi-stationary time series, exhibits that a finite number of different causal mechanisms occur sequentially and periodically across time. This model holds considerable practical utility because it can represent periodicity, including common occurrences such as seasonality and diurnal variation. We propose a constraint-based, non-parametric algorithm for discovering causal relations in this setting. The resulting algorithm, PCMCI$_{\Omega}$, can capture the alternating and recurring changes in the causal mechanisms and then identify the underlying causal graph with conditional independence (CI) tests. We show that this algorithm is sound in identifying causal relations on discrete time series. We validate the algorithm with extensive experiments on continuous and discrete simulated data. We also apply our algorithm to a real-world climate dataset.

Short-term forecasting of residential and commercial building energy consumption is widely used in power systems and continues to grow in importance. Data-driven short-term load forecasting (STLF), although promising, has suffered from a lack of open, large-scale datasets with high building diversity. This has hindered exploring the pretrain-then-fine-tune paradigm for STLF. To help address this, we present BuildingsBench, which consists of: 1) Buildings-900K, a large-scale dataset of 900K simulated buildings representing the U.S. building stock; and 2) an evaluation platform with over 1,900 real residential and commercial buildings from 7 open datasets. BuildingsBench benchmarks two under-explored tasks: zero-shot STLF, where a pretrained model is evaluated on unseen buildings without fine-tuning, and transfer learning, where a pretrained model is fine-tuned on a target building. The main finding of our benchmark analysis is that synthetically pretrained models generalize surprisingly well to real commercial buildings. An exploration of the effect of increasing dataset size and diversity on zero-shot commercial building performance reveals a power-law with diminishing returns. We also show that fine-tuning pretrained models on real commercial and residential buildings improves performance for a majority of target buildings. We hope that BuildingsBench encourages and facilitates future research on generalizable STLF. All datasets and code can be accessed from https://github.com/NREL/BuildingsBench.

Neural ordinary differential equation (Neural ODE) is an elegant yet powerful framework to learn the temporal dynamics for time series modeling. However, we observe that existing Neural ODE forecasting models suffer from two disadvantages: i) controlling the latent states only through the linear transformation over the local change of the observed signals may be inadequate; ii) lacking the ability to capture the inherent periodical property in time series forecasting tasks; To overcome the two issues, we introduce a new neural ODE framework called \textbf{Neural Lad}, a \textbf{Neural} \textbf{La}tent \textbf{d}ynamics model in which the latent representations evolve with an ODE enhanced by the change of observed signal and seasonality-trend characterization. We incorporate the local change of input signal into the latent dynamics in an attention-based manner and design a residual architecture over basis expansion to depict the periodicity in the underlying dynamics. To accommodate the multivariate time series forecasting, we extend the Neural Lad through learning an adaptive relationship between multiple time series. Experiments demonstrate that our model can achieve better or comparable performance against existing neural ODE families and transformer variants in various datasets. Remarkably, the empirical superiority of Neural Lad is consistent across short and long-horizon forecasting for both univariate, multivariate and even irregular sampled time series.

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has shown great importance in numerous industries. Current state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting methods usually require both graph networks (e.g., GCN) and temporal networks (e.g., LSTM) to capture inter-series (spatial) dynamics and intra-series (temporal) dependencies, respectively. However, the uncertain compatibility of the two networks puts an extra burden on handcrafted model designs. Moreover, the separate spatial and temporal modeling naturally violates the unified spatiotemporal inter-dependencies in real world, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome these problems, we explore an interesting direction of directly applying graph networks and rethink MTS forecasting from a pure graph perspective. We first define a novel data structure, hypervariate graph, which regards each series value (regardless of variates or timestamps) as a graph node, and represents sliding windows as space-time fully-connected graphs. This perspective considers spatiotemporal dynamics unitedly and reformulates classic MTS forecasting into the predictions on hypervariate graphs. Then, we propose a novel architecture Fourier Graph Neural Network (FourierGNN) by stacking our proposed Fourier Graph Operator (FGO) to perform matrix multiplications in Fourier space. FourierGNN accommodates adequate expressiveness and achieves much lower complexity, which can effectively and efficiently accomplish {the forecasting}. Besides, our theoretical analysis reveals FGO's equivalence to graph convolutions in the time domain, which further verifies the validity of FourierGNN. Extensive experiments on seven datasets have demonstrated our superior performance with higher efficiency and fewer parameters compared with state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/aikunyi/FourierGNN.

Recent advancements in dense out-of-distribution (OOD) detection have primarily focused on scenarios where the training and testing datasets share a similar domain, with the assumption that no domain shift exists between them. However, in real-world situations, domain shift often exits and significantly affects the accuracy of existing out-of-distribution (OOD) detection models. In this work, we propose a dual-level OOD detection framework to handle domain shift and semantic shift jointly. The first level distinguishes whether domain shift exists in the image by leveraging global low-level features, while the second level identifies pixels with semantic shift by utilizing dense high-level feature maps. In this way, we can selectively adapt the model to unseen domains as well as enhance model's capacity in detecting novel classes. We validate the efficacy of our proposed method on several OOD segmentation benchmarks, including those with significant domain shifts and those without, observing consistent performance improvements across various baseline models. Code is available at https://github.com/gaozhitong/ATTA.

Many unsupervised methods have recently been proposed for multivariate time series anomaly detection. However, existing works mainly focus on stable data yet often omit the drift generated from non-stationary environments, which may lead to numerous false alarms. We propose **D**ynamic **D**ecomposition with **D**iffusion **R**econstruction (D$^3$R), a novel anomaly detection network for real-world unstable data to fill the gap. D$^3$R tackles the drift via decomposition and reconstruction. In the decomposition procedure, we utilize data-time mix-attention to dynamically decompose long-period multivariate time series, overcoming the limitation of the local sliding window. The information bottleneck is critical yet difficult to determine in the reconstruction procedure. To avoid retraining once the bottleneck changes, we control it externally by noise diffusion and directly reconstruct the polluted data. The whole model can be trained end-to-end. Extensive experiments on various real-world datasets demonstrate that D$^3$R significantly outperforms existing methods, with a 11% average relative improvement over the previous SOTA models.

Over the last decade, deep neural networks have transformed our society, and they are already widely applied in various machine learning applications. State-of-the-art deep neural networks are becoming larger in size every year to deliver increasing model accuracy, and as a result, model training consumes substantial computing resources and will only consume more in the future. Using current training methods, in each iteration, to process a data point $x \in \mathbb{R}^d$ in a layer, we need to spend $\Theta(md)$ time to evaluate all the $m$ neurons in the layer. This means processing the entire layer takes $\Theta(nmd)$ time for $n$ data points. Recent work [Song, Yang and Zhang, NeurIPS 2021] reduces this time per iteration to $o(nmd)$, but requires exponential time to preprocess either the data or the neural network weights, making it unlikely to have practical usage. In this work, we present a new preprocessing method that simply stores the weight-data correlation in a tree data structure in order to quickly and dynamically detect which neurons fire at each iteration. Our method requires only $O(nmd)$ time in preprocessing and still achieves $o(nmd)$ time per iteration. We complement our new algorithm with a lower bound, proving that assuming a popular conjecture from complexity theory, one could not substantially speed up our algorithm for dynamic detection of firing neurons.

Irregularly sampled time series are increasingly prevalent, particularly in medical domains. While various specialized methods have been developed to handle these irregularities, effectively modeling their complex dynamics and pronounced sparsity remains a challenge. This paper introduces a novel perspective by converting irregularly sampled time series into line graph images, then utilizing powerful pre-trained vision transformers for time series classification in the same way as image classification. This method not only largely simplifies specialized algorithm designs but also presents the potential to serve as a universal framework for time series modeling. Remarkably, despite its simplicity, our approach outperforms state-of-the-art specialized algorithms on several popular healthcare and human activity datasets. Especially in the rigorous leave-sensors-out setting where a portion of variables is omitted during testing, our method exhibits strong robustness against varying degrees of missing observations, achieving an impressive improvement of 42.8% in absolute F1 score points over leading specialized baselines even with half the variables masked. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Leezekun/ViTST.

The real-world deployment of an autonomous driving system requires its components to run on-board and in real-time, including the motion prediction module that predicts the future trajectories of surrounding traffic participants. Existing agent-centric methods have demonstrated outstanding performance on public benchmarks. However, they suffer from high computational overhead and poor scalability as the number of agents to be predicted increases. To address this problem, we introduce the K-nearest neighbor attention with relative pose encoding (KNARPE), a novel attention mechanism allowing the pairwise-relative representation to be used by Transformers. Then, based on KNARPE we present the Heterogeneous Polyline Transformer with Relative pose encoding (HPTR), a hierarchical framework enabling asynchronous token update during the online inference. By sharing contexts among agents and reusing the unchanged contexts, our approach is as efficient as scene-centric methods, while performing on par with state-of-the-art agent-centric methods. Experiments on Waymo and Argoverse-2 datasets show that HPTR achieves superior performance among end-to-end methods that do not apply expensive post-processing or model ensembling. The code is available at https://github.com/zhejz/HPTR.