NeurIPS 2023 论文列表

Split Inference (SI) is an emerging deep learning paradigm that addresses computational constraints on edge devices and preserves data privacy through collaborative edge-cloud approaches. However, SI is vulnerable to Data Reconstruction Attacks (DRA), which aim to reconstruct users' private prediction instances. Existing attack methods suffer from various limitations. Optimization-based DRAs do not leverage public data effectively, while Learning-based DRAs depend heavily on auxiliary data quantity and distribution similarity. Consequently, these approaches yield unsatisfactory attack results and are sensitive to defense mechanisms. To overcome these challenges, we propose a GAN-based LAtent Space Search attack (GLASS) that harnesses abundant prior knowledge from public data using advanced StyleGAN technologies. Additionally, we introduce GLASS++ to enhance reconstruction stability. Our approach represents the first GAN-based DRA against SI, and extensive evaluation across different split points and adversary setups demonstrates its state-of-the-art performance. Moreover, we thoroughly examine seven defense mechanisms, highlighting our method's capability to reveal private information even in the presence of these defenses.

For partially observable environments, imitation learning with observation histories (ILOH) assumes that control-relevant information is sufficiently captured in the observation histories for imitating the expert actions. In the offline setting wherethe agent is required to learn to imitate without interaction with the environment, behavior cloning (BC) has been shown to be a simple yet effective method for imitation learning. However, when the information about the actions executed in the past timesteps leaks into the observation histories, ILOH via BC often ends up imitating its own past actions. In this paper, we address this catastrophic failure by proposing a principled regularization for BC, which we name Past Action Leakage Regularization (PALR). The main idea behind our approach is to leverage the classical notion of conditional independence to mitigate the leakage. We compare different instances of our framework with natural choices of conditional independence metric and its estimator. The result of our comparison advocates the use of a particular kernel-based estimator for the conditional independence metric. We conduct an extensive set of experiments on benchmark datasets in order to assess the effectiveness of our regularization method. The experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms prior related approaches, highlighting its potential to successfully imitate expert actions when the past action information leaks into the observation histories.

Drawbacks of ignoring the causal mechanisms when performing imitation learning have recently been acknowledged. Several approaches both to assess the feasibility of imitation and to circumvent causal confounding and causal misspecifications have been proposed in the literature. However, the potential benefits of the incorporation of additional information about the underlying causal structure are left unexplored. An example of such overlooked information is context-specific independence (CSI), i.e., independence that holds only in certain contexts. We consider the problem of causal imitation learning when CSI relations are known. We prove that the decision problem pertaining to the feasibility of imitation in this setting is NP-hard. Further, we provide a necessary graphical criterion for imitation learning under CSI and show that under a structural assumption, this criterion is also sufficient. Finally, we propose a sound algorithmic approach for causal imitation learning which takes both CSI relations and data into account.

We study causal representation learning, the task of inferring latent causal variables and their causal relations from high-dimensional functions (“mixtures”) of the variables. Prior work relies on weak supervision, in the form of counterfactual pre- and post-intervention views or temporal structure; places restrictive assumptions, such as linearity, on the mixing function or latent causal model; or requires partial knowledge of the generative process, such as the causal graph or intervention targets. We instead consider the general setting in which both the causal model and the mixing function are nonparametric. The learning signal takes the form of multiple datasets, or environments, arising from unknown interventions in the underlying causal model. Our goal is to identify both the ground truth latents and their causal graph up to a set of ambiguities which we show to be irresolvable from interventional data. We study the fundamental setting of two causal variables and prove that the observational distribution and one perfect intervention per node suffice for identifiability, subject to a genericity condition. This condition rules out spurious solutions that involve fine-tuning of the intervened and observational distributions, mirroring similar conditions for nonlinear cause-effect inference. For an arbitrary number of variables, we show that at least one pair of distinct perfect interventional domains per node guarantees identifiability. Further, we demonstrate that the strengths of causal influences among the latent variables are preserved by all equivalent solutions, rendering the inferred representation appropriate for drawing causal conclusions from new data. Our study provides the first identifiability results for the general nonparametric setting with unknown interventions, and elucidates what is possible and impossible for causal representation learning without more direct supervision.

The average treatment effect, which is the difference in expectation of the counterfactuals, is probably the most popular target effect in causal inference with binary treatments. However, treatments may have effects beyond the mean, for instance decreasing or increasing the variance. We propose a new kernel-based test for distributional effects of the treatment. It is, to the best of our knowledge, the first kernel-based, doubly-robust test with provably valid type-I error. Furthermore, our proposed algorithm is computationally efficient, avoiding the use of permutations.

We introduce a suite of new particle-based algorithms for sampling in constrained domains which are entirely learning rate free. Our approach leverages coin betting ideas from convex optimisation, and the viewpoint of constrained sampling as a mirrored optimisation problem on the space of probability measures. Based on this viewpoint, we also introduce a unifying framework for several existing constrained sampling algorithms, including mirrored Langevin dynamics and mirrored Stein variational gradient descent. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on a range of numerical examples, including sampling from targets on the simplex, sampling with fairness constraints, and constrained sampling problems in post-selection inference. Our results indicate that our algorithms achieve competitive performance with existing constrained sampling methods, without the need to tune any hyperparameters.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.

Designing flexible probabilistic models over tree topologies is important for developing efficient phylogenetic inference methods. To do that, previous works often leverage the similarity of tree topologies via hand-engineered heuristic features which would require domain expertise and may suffer from limited approximation capability. In this paper, we propose a deep autoregressive model for phylogenetic inference based on graph neural networks (GNNs), called ARTree. By decomposing a tree topology into a sequence of leaf node addition operations and modeling the involved conditional distributions based on learnable topological features via GNNs, ARTree can provide a rich family of distributions over tree topologies that have simple sampling algorithms, without using heuristic features. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method on a benchmark of challenging real data tree topology density estimation and variational Bayesian phylogenetic inference problems.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating statistics to infer parameters of intractable likelihood models. However, such methods are known to yield untrustworthy and misleading inference outcomes under model misspecification, thus hindering their widespread applicability. In this work, we propose the first general approach to handle model misspecification that works across different classes of SBI methods. Leveraging the fact that the choice of statistics determines the degree of misspecification in SBI, we introduce a regularized loss function that penalizes those statistics that increase the mismatch between the data and the model. Taking NPE and ABC as use cases, we demonstrate the superior performance of our method on high-dimensional time-series models that are artificially misspecified. We also apply our method to real data from the field of radio propagation where the model is known to be misspecified. We show empirically that the method yields robust inference in misspecified scenarios, whilst still being accurate when the model is well-specified.

We establish conditions under which latent causal graphs are nonparametrically identifiable and can be reconstructed from unknown interventions in the latent space. Our primary focus is the identification of the latent structure in measurement models without parametric assumptions such as linearity or Gaussianity. Moreover, we do not assume the number of hidden variables is known, and we show that at most one unknown intervention per hidden variable is needed. This extends a recent line of work on learning causal representations from observations and interventions. The proofs are constructive and introduce two new graphical concepts---_imaginary subsets_ and _isolated edges_---that may be useful in their own right. As a matter of independent interest, the proofs also involve a novel characterization of the limits of edge orientations within the equivalence class of DAGs induced by _unknown_ interventions. These are the first results to characterize the conditions under which causal representations are identifiable without making any parametric assumptions in a general setting with unknown interventions and without faithfulness.

In this work, we deepen on the use of normalizing flows for causal reasoning. Specifically, we first leverage recent results on non-linear ICA to show that causal models are identifiable from observational data given a causal ordering, and thus can be recovered using autoregressive normalizing flows (NFs). Second, we analyze different design and learning choices for *causal normalizing flows* to capture the underlying causal data-generating process. Third, we describe how to implement the *do-operator* in causal NFs, and thus, how to answer interventional and counterfactual questions. Finally, in our experiments, we validate our design and training choices through a comprehensive ablation study; compare causal NFs to other approaches for approximating causal models; and empirically demonstrate that causal NFs can be used to address real-world problems—where the presence of mixed discrete-continuous data and partial knowledge on the causal graph is the norm. The code for this work can be found at https://github.com/psanch21/causal-flows.

Structural causal bandit provides a framework for online decision-making problems when causal information is available. It models the stochastic environment with a structural causal model (SCM) that governs the causal relations between random variables. In each round, an agent applies an intervention (or no intervention) by setting certain variables to some constants and receives a stochastic reward from a non-manipulable variable. Though the causal structure is given, the observational and interventional distributions of these random variables are unknown beforehand, and they can only be learned through interactions with the environment. Therefore, to maximize the expected cumulative reward, it is critical to balance the explore-versus-exploit tradeoff. We assume each random variable takes a finite number of distinct values, and consider a semi-Markovian setting, where random variables are affected by unobserved confounders. Using the canonical SCM formulation to discretize the domains of unobserved variables, we efficiently integrate samples to reduce model uncertainty. This gives the decision maker a natural advantage over those in a classical multi-armed bandit setup. We provide a logarithmic asymptotic regret lower bound for the structural causal bandit problem. Inspired by the lower bound, we design an algorithm that can utilize the causal structure to accelerate the learning process and take informative and rewarding interventions. We establish that our algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret and demonstrate that it outperforms the existing methods via simulations.

Randomized experiments have been the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of a treatment, policy, or intervention, spanning various fields, including social sciences, biomedical studies, and e-commerce. The classical complete randomization approach assigns treatments based on a pre-specified probability and may lead to inefficient use of data. Adaptive experiments improve upon complete randomization by sequentially learning and updating treatment assignment probabilities using accrued evidence during the experiment. Hence, they can help achieve efficient data use and higher estimation efficiency. However, their application can also raise fairness and equity concerns, as assignment probabilities may vary drastically across groups of participants. Furthermore, when treatment is expected to be extremely beneficial to certain groups of participants, it is more appropriate to expose many of these participants to favorable treatment. In response to these challenges, we propose a fair adaptive experiment strategy that simultaneously enhances data use efficiency, achieves an ``envy-free'' treatment assignment guarantee, and improves the overall welfare of participants. An important feature of our proposed strategy is that we do not impose parametric modeling assumptions on the outcome variables, making it more versatile and applicable to a wider array of applications. Through our theoretical investigation, we characterize the convergence rate of the estimated treatment effects and the associated standard deviations at the group level and further prove that our adaptive treatment assignment algorithm, despite not having a closed-form expression, approaches the optimal allocation rule asymptotically. Our proof strategy takes into account the fact that the allocation decisions in our design depend on sequentially accumulated data, which poses a significant challenge in characterizing the properties and conducting statistical inference of our method. We further provide simulation evidence and two synthetic data studies to showcase the performance of our fair adaptive experiment strategy.

A fundamental problem of causal discovery is cause-effect inference, to learn the correct causal direction between two random variables. Significant progress has been made through modelling the effect as a function of its cause and a noise term, which allows us to leverage assumptions about the generating function class. The recently introduced heteroscedastic location-scale noise functional models (LSNMs) combine expressive power with identifiability guarantees. LSNM model selection based on maximizing likelihood achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, when the noise distributions are correctly specified. However, through an extensive empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that the accuracy deteriorates sharply when the form of the noise distribution is misspecified by the user. Our analysis shows that the failure occurs mainly when the conditional variance in the anti-causal direction is smaller than that in the causal direction. As an alternative, we find that causal model selection through residual independence testing is much more robust to noise misspecification and misleading conditional variance.

Federated or multi-site studies have distinct advantages over single-site studies, including increased generalizability, the ability to study underrepresented populations, and the opportunity to study rare exposures and outcomes. However, these studies are complicated by the need to preserve the privacy of each individual's data, heterogeneity in their covariate distributions, and different data structures between sites. We propose a novel federated approach to derive valid causal inferences for a target population using multi-site data. We adjust for covariate shift and accommodate covariate mismatch between sites by developing a multiply-robust and privacy-preserving nuisance function estimation approach. Our methodology incorporates transfer learning to estimate ensemble weights to combine information from source sites. We show that these learned weights are efficient and optimal under different scenarios. We showcase the finite sample advantages of our approach in terms of efficiency and robustness compared to existing state-of-the-art approaches. We apply our approach to study the treatment effect of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) on the duration of hospitalization for patients experiencing acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with data from the Centers for Medicare \& Medicaid Services (CMS).

Active confocal non-line-of-sight (NLOS) imaging has successfully enabled seeing around corners relying on high-quality transient measurements. However, acquiring spatial-dense transient measurement is time-consuming, raising the question of how to reconstruct satisfactory results from under-scanning measurements (USM). The existing solutions, involving the traditional algorithms, however, are hindered by unsatisfactory results or long computing times. To this end, we propose the first deep-learning-based approach to NLOS imaging from USM. Our proposed end-to-end network is composed of two main components: the transient recovery network (TRN) and the volume reconstruction network (VRN). Specifically, TRN takes the under-scanning measurements as input, utilizes a multiple kernel feature extraction module and a multiple feature fusion module, and outputs sufficient-scanning measurements at the high-spatial resolution. Afterwards, VRN incorporates the linear physics prior of the light-path transport model and reconstructs the hidden volume representation. Besides, we introduce regularized constraints that enhance the perception of more local details while suppressing smoothing effects. The proposed method achieves superior performance on both synthetic data and public real-world data, as demonstrated by extensive experimental results with different under-scanning grids. Moreover, the proposed method delivers impressive robustness at an extremely low scanning grid (i.e., 8$\times$8) and offers high-speed inference (i.e., 50 times faster than the existing iterative solution).

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical properties of their data. Because causal discovery without further assumptions is an ill-posed problem, each algorithm comes with its own set of usually untestable assumptions, some of which are hard to meet in real datasets. Motivated by these considerations, this paper extensively benchmarks the empirical performance of recent causal discovery methods on observational _iid_ data generated under different background conditions, allowing for violations of the critical assumptions required by each selected approach. Our experimental findings show that score matching-based methods demonstrate surprising performance in the false positive and false negative rate of the inferred graph in these challenging scenarios, and we provide theoretical insights into their performance. This work is also the first effort to benchmark the stability of causal discovery algorithms with respect to the values of their hyperparameters. Finally, we hope this paper will set a new standard for the evaluation of causal discovery methods and can serve as an accessible entry point for practitioners interested in the field, highlighting the empirical implications of different algorithm choices.

We investigate the problem of machine learning-based (ML) predictive inference on individual treatment effects (ITEs). Previous work has focused primarily on developing ML-based “meta-learners” that can provide point estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE)—these are model-agnostic approaches for combining intermediate nuisance estimates to produce estimates of CATE. In this paper, we develop conformal meta-learners, a general framework for issuing predictive intervals for ITEs by applying the standard conformal prediction (CP) procedure on top of CATE meta-learners. We focus on a broad class of meta-learners based on two-stage pseudo-outcome regression and develop a stochastic ordering framework to study their validity. We show that inference with conformal meta-learners is marginally valid if their (pseudo-outcome) conformity scores stochastically dominate “oracle” conformity scores evaluated on the unobserved ITEs. Additionally, we prove that commonly used CATE meta-learners, such as the doubly-robust learner, satisfy a model- and distribution-free stochastic (or convex) dominance condition, making their conformal inferences valid for practically-relevant levels of target coverage. Whereas existing procedures conduct inference on nuisance parameters (i.e., potential outcomes) via weighted CP, conformal meta-learners enable direct inference on the target parameter (ITE). Numerical experiments show that conformal meta-learners provide valid intervals with competitive efficiency while retaining the favorable point estimation properties of CATE meta-learners.

Learning cause and effect relations is arguably one of the central challenges found throughout the data sciences. Formally, determining whether a collection of observational and interventional distributions can be combined to learn a target causal relation is known as the problem of generalized identification (or g-identification) [Lee et al., 2019]. Although g-identification has been well understood and solved in theory, it turns out to be challenging to apply these results in practice, in particular when considering the estimation of the target distribution from finite samples. In this paper, we develop a new, general estimator that exhibits multiply robustness properties for g-identifiable causal functionals. Specifically, we show that any g-identifiable causal effect can be expressed as a function of generalized multi-outcome sequential back-door adjustments that are amenable to estimation. We then construct a corresponding estimator for the g-identification expression that exhibits robustness properties to bias. We analyze the asymptotic convergence properties of the estimator. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed estimator in experimental studies. Simulation results corroborate the theory.