NeurIPS 2023 论文列表

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

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3,584篇论文

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Pareto Frontiers in Deep Feature Learning: Data, Compute, Width, and Luck

Benjamin L. Edelman, Surbhi Goel, Sham M. Kakade, eran malach, Cyril Zhang

展开摘要

In modern deep learning, algorithmic choices (such as width, depth, and learning rate) are known to modulate nuanced resource tradeoffs. This work investigates how these complexities necessarily arise for feature learning in the presence of computational-statistical gaps. We begin by considering offline sparse parity learning, a supervised classification problem which admits a statistical query lower bound for gradient-based training of a multilayer perceptron. This lower bound can be interpreted as a *multi-resource tradeoff frontier*: successful learning can only occur if one is sufficiently rich (large model), knowledgeable (large dataset), patient (many training iterations), or lucky (many random guesses). We show, theoretically and experimentally, that sparse initialization and increasing network width yield significant improvements in sample efficiency in this setting. Here, width plays the role of parallel search: it amplifies the probability of finding "lottery ticket" neurons, which learn sparse features more sample-efficiently. Finally, we show that the synthetic sparse parity task can be useful as a proxy for real problems requiring axis-aligned feature learning. We demonstrate improved sample efficiency on tabular classification benchmarks by using wide, sparsely-initialized MLP models; these networks sometimes outperform tuned random forests.

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STEVE-1: A Generative Model for Text-to-Behavior in Minecraft

Shalev Lifshitz, Keiran Paster, Harris Chan, Jimmy Ba, Sheila A. McIlraith

展开摘要

Constructing AI models that respond to text instructions is challenging, especially for sequential decision-making tasks. This work introduces a methodology, inspired by unCLIP, for instruction-tuning generative models of behavior without relying on a large dataset of instruction-labeled trajectories. Using this methodology, we create an instruction-tuned Video Pretraining (VPT) model called STEVE-1, which can follow short-horizon open-ended text and visual instructions in Minecraft. STEVE-1 is trained in two steps: adapting the pretrained VPT model to follow commands in MineCLIP's latent space, then training a prior to predict latent codes from text. This allows us to finetune VPT through self-supervised behavioral cloning and hindsight relabeling, reducing the need for costly human text annotations, and all for only $60 of compute. By leveraging pretrained models like VPT and MineCLIP and employing best practices from text-conditioned image generation, STEVE-1 sets a new bar for open-ended instruction following in Minecraft with low-level controls (mouse and keyboard) and raw pixel inputs, far outperforming previous baselines and robustly completing 12 of 13 tasks in our early-game evaluation suite. We provide experimental evidence highlighting key factors for downstream performance, including pretraining, classifier-free guidance, and data scaling. All resources, including our model weights, training scripts, and evaluation tools are made available for further research.

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3D-LLM: Injecting the 3D World into Large Language Models

Yining Hong, Haoyu Zhen, Peihao Chen, Shuhong Zheng, Yilun Du, Zhenfang Chen, Chuang Gan

展开摘要

Large language models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have been proved to excel at multiple tasks, such as commonsense reasoning. Powerful as these models can be, they are not grounded in the 3D physical world, which involves richer concepts such as spatial relationships, affordances, physics, layout, and so on. In this work, we propose to inject the 3D world into large language models, and introduce a whole new family of 3D-LLMs. Specifically, 3D-LLMs can take 3D point clouds and their features as input and perform a diverse set of 3D-related tasks, including captioning, dense captioning, 3D question answering, task decomposition, 3D grounding, 3D-assisted dialog, navigation, and so on. Using three types of prompting mechanisms that we design, we are able to collect over 300k 3D-language data covering these tasks. To efficiently train 3D-LLMs, we first utilize a 3D feature extractor that obtains 3D features from rendered multi-view images. Then, we use 2D VLMs as our backbones to train our 3D-LLMs. By introducing a 3D localization mechanism, 3D-LLMs could better capture 3D spatial information. Experiments on ScanQA show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by a large margin (\textit{e.g.}, the BLEU-1 score surpasses state-of-the-art score by 9\%). Furthermore, experiments on our held-in datasets for 3D captioning, task composition, and 3D-assisted dialogue show that our model outperforms 2D VLMs. Qualitative examples also show that our model could perform more tasks beyond the scope of existing LLMs and VLMs. Our model and data will be publicly available.

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Which Models have Perceptually-Aligned Gradients? An Explanation via Off-Manifold Robustness

Suraj Srinivas, Sebastian Bordt, Himabindu Lakkaraju

展开摘要

One of the remarkable properties of robust computer vision models is that their input-gradients are often aligned with human perception, referred to in the literature as perceptually-aligned gradients (PAGs). Despite only being trained for classification, PAGs cause robust models to have rudimentary generative capabilities, including image generation, denoising, and in-painting. However, the underlying mechanisms behind these phenomena remain unknown. In this work, we provide a first explanation of PAGs via \emph{off-manifold robustness}, which states that models must be more robust off- the data manifold than they are on-manifold. We first demonstrate theoretically that off-manifold robustness leads input gradients to lie approximately on the data manifold, explaining their perceptual alignment. We then show that Bayes optimal models satisfy off-manifold robustness, and confirm the same empirically for robust models trained via gradient norm regularization, randomized smoothing, and adversarial training with projected gradient descent. Quantifying the perceptual alignment of model gradients via their similarity with the gradients of generative models, we show that off-manifold robustness correlates well with perceptual alignment. Finally, based on the levels of on- and off-manifold robustness, we identify three different regimes of robustness that affect both perceptual alignment and model accuracy: weak robustness, bayes-aligned robustness, and excessive robustness. Code is available at https://github.com/tml-tuebingen/pags.

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Posterior Contraction Rates for Matérn Gaussian Processes on Riemannian Manifolds

Paul Rosa, Viacheslav Borovitskiy, Alexander Terenin, Judith Rousseau

展开摘要

Gaussian processes are used in many machine learning applications that rely on uncertainty quantification. Recently, computational tools for working with these models in geometric settings, such as when inputs lie on a Riemannian manifold, have been developed. This raises the question: can these intrinsic models be shown theoretically to lead to better performance, compared to simply embedding all relevant quantities into $\mathbb{R}^d$ and using the restriction of an ordinary Euclidean Gaussian process? To study this, we prove optimal contraction rates for intrinsic Matérn Gaussian processes defined on compact Riemannian manifolds. We also prove analogous rates for extrinsic processes using trace and extension theorems between manifold and ambient Sobolev spaces: somewhat surprisingly, the rates obtained turn out to coincide with those of the intrinsic processes, provided that their smoothness parameters are matched appropriately. We illustrate these rates empirically on a number of examples, which, mirroring prior work, show that intrinsic processes can achieve better performance in practice. Therefore, our work shows that finer-grained analyses are needed to distinguish between different levels of data-efficiency of geometric Gaussian processes, particularly in settings which involve small data set sizes and non-asymptotic behavior.

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Regularized Behavior Cloning for Blocking the Leakage of Past Action Information

Seokin Seo, HyeongJoo Hwang, Hongseok Yang, Kee-Eung Kim

展开摘要

For partially observable environments, imitation learning with observation histories (ILOH) assumes that control-relevant information is sufficiently captured in the observation histories for imitating the expert actions. In the offline setting wherethe agent is required to learn to imitate without interaction with the environment, behavior cloning (BC) has been shown to be a simple yet effective method for imitation learning. However, when the information about the actions executed in the past timesteps leaks into the observation histories, ILOH via BC often ends up imitating its own past actions. In this paper, we address this catastrophic failure by proposing a principled regularization for BC, which we name Past Action Leakage Regularization (PALR). The main idea behind our approach is to leverage the classical notion of conditional independence to mitigate the leakage. We compare different instances of our framework with natural choices of conditional independence metric and its estimator. The result of our comparison advocates the use of a particular kernel-based estimator for the conditional independence metric. We conduct an extensive set of experiments on benchmark datasets in order to assess the effectiveness of our regularization method. The experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms prior related approaches, highlighting its potential to successfully imitate expert actions when the past action information leaks into the observation histories.

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Structure-free Graph Condensation: From Large-scale Graphs to Condensed Graph-free Data

Xin Zheng, Miao Zhang, Chunyang Chen, Quoc Viet Hung Nguyen, Xingquan Zhu, Shirui Pan

展开摘要

Graph condensation, which reduces the size of a large-scale graph by synthesizing a small-scale condensed graph as its substitution, has immediate benefits for various graph learning tasks. However, existing graph condensation methods rely on the joint optimization of nodes and structures in the condensed graph, and overlook critical issues in effectiveness and generalization ability. In this paper, we advocate a new Structure-Free Graph Condensation paradigm, named SFGC, to distill a large-scale graph into a small-scale graph node set without explicit graph structures, i.e., graph-free data. Our idea is to implicitly encode topology structure information into the node attributes in the synthesized graph-free data, whose topology is reduced to an identity matrix. Specifically, SFGC contains two collaborative components: (1) a training trajectory meta-matching scheme for effectively synthesizing small-scale graph-free data; (2) a graph neural feature score metric for dynamically evaluating the quality of the condensed data. Through training trajectory meta-matching, SFGC aligns the long-term GNN learning behaviors between the large-scale graph and the condensed small-scale graph-free data, ensuring comprehensive and compact transfer of informative knowledge to the graph-free data. Afterward, the underlying condensed graph-free data would be dynamically evaluated with the graph neural feature score, which is a closed-form metric for ensuring the excellent expressiveness of the condensed graph-free data. Extensive experiments verify the superiority of SFGC across different condensation ratios.

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On the Minimax Regret for Online Learning with Feedback Graphs

Khaled Eldowa, Emmanuel Esposito, Tommaso Cesari, Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi

展开摘要

In this work, we improve on the upper and lower bounds for the regret of online learning with strongly observable undirected feedback graphs. The best known upper bound for this problem is $\mathcal{O}\bigl(\sqrt{\alpha T\ln K}\bigr)$, where $K$ is the number of actions, $\alpha$ is the independence number of the graph, and $T$ is the time horizon. The $\sqrt{\ln K}$ factor is known to be necessary when $\alpha = 1$ (the experts case). On the other hand, when $\alpha = K$ (the bandits case), the minimax rate is known to be $\Theta\bigl(\sqrt{KT}\bigr)$, and a lower bound $\Omega\bigl(\sqrt{\alpha T}\bigr)$ is known to hold for any $\alpha$. Our improved upper bound $\mathcal{O}\bigl(\sqrt{\alpha T(1+\ln(K/\alpha))}\bigr)$ holds for any $\alpha$ and matches the lower bounds for bandits and experts, while interpolating intermediate cases. To prove this result, we use FTRL with $q$-Tsallis entropy for a carefully chosen value of $q \in [1/2, 1)$ that varies with $\alpha$. The analysis of this algorithm requires a new bound on the variance term in the regret. We also show how to extend our techniques to time-varying graphs, without requiring prior knowledge of their independence numbers. Our upper bound is complemented by an improved $\Omega\bigl(\sqrt{\alpha T(\ln K)/(\ln\alpha)}\bigr)$ lower bound for all $\alpha > 1$, whose analysis relies on a novel reduction to multitask learning. This shows that a logarithmic factor is necessary as soon as $\alpha < K$.

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Hierarchical Integration Diffusion Model for Realistic Image Deblurring

Zheng Chen, Yulun Zhang, Ding Liu, Bin Xia, Jinjin Gu, Linghe Kong, Xin Yuan

展开摘要

Diffusion models (DMs) have recently been introduced in image deblurring and exhibited promising performance, particularly in terms of details reconstruction. However, the diffusion model requires a large number of inference iterations to recover the clean image from pure Gaussian noise, which consumes massive computational resources. Moreover, the distribution synthesized by the diffusion model is often misaligned with the target results, leading to restrictions in distortion-based metrics. To address the above issues, we propose the Hierarchical Integration Diffusion Model (HI-Diff), for realistic image deblurring. Specifically, we perform the DM in a highly compacted latent space to generate the prior feature for the deblurring process. The deblurring process is implemented by a regression-based method to obtain better distortion accuracy. Meanwhile, the highly compact latent space ensures the efficiency of the DM. Furthermore, we design the hierarchical integration module to fuse the prior into the regression-based model from multiple scales, enabling better generalization in complex blurry scenarios. Comprehensive experiments on synthetic and real-world blur datasets demonstrate that our HI-Diff outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Code and trained models are available at https://github.com/zhengchen1999/HI-Diff.

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Provable Training for Graph Contrastive Learning

Yue Yu, Xiao Wang, Mengmei Zhang, Nian Liu, Chuan Shi

展开摘要

Graph Contrastive Learning (GCL) has emerged as a popular training approach for learning node embeddings from augmented graphs without labels. Despite the key principle that maximizing the similarity between positive node pairs while minimizing it between negative node pairs is well established, some fundamental problems are still unclear. Considering the complex graph structure, are some nodes consistently well-trained and following this principle even with different graph augmentations? Or are there some nodes more likely to be untrained across graph augmentations and violate the principle? How to distinguish these nodes and further guide the training of GCL? To answer these questions, we first present experimental evidence showing that the training of GCL is indeed imbalanced across all nodes. To address this problem, we propose the metric "node compactness", which is the lower bound of how a node follows the GCL principle related to the range of augmentations. We further derive the form of node compactness theoretically through bound propagation, which can be integrated into binary cross-entropy as a regularization. To this end, we propose the PrOvable Training (POT) for GCL, which regularizes the training of GCL to encode node embeddings that follows the GCL principle better. Through extensive experiments on various benchmarks, POT consistently improves the existing GCL approaches, serving as a friendly plugin.

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Aleatoric and Epistemic Discrimination: Fundamental Limits of Fairness Interventions

Hao Wang, Luxi He, Rui Gao, Flavio Calmon

展开摘要

Machine learning (ML) models can underperform on certain population groups due to choices made during model development and bias inherent in the data. We categorize sources of discrimination in the ML pipeline into two classes: aleatoric discrimination, which is inherent in the data distribution, and epistemic discrimination, which is due to decisions made during model development. We quantify aleatoric discrimination by determining the performance limits of a model under fairness constraints, assuming perfect knowledge of the data distribution. We demonstrate how to characterize aleatoric discrimination by applying Blackwell's results on comparing statistical experiments. We then quantify epistemic discrimination as the gap between a model's accuracy when fairness constraints are applied and the limit posed by aleatoric discrimination. We apply this approach to benchmark existing fairness interventions and investigate fairness risks in data with missing values. Our results indicate that state-of-the-art fairness interventions are effective at removing epistemic discrimination on standard (overused) tabular datasets. However, when data has missing values, there is still significant room for improvement in handling aleatoric discrimination.

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On the Planning Abilities of Large Language Models - A Critical Investigation

Karthik Valmeekam, Matthew Marquez, Sarath Sreedharan, Subbarao Kambhampati

展开摘要

Intrigued by the claims of emergent reasoning capabilities in LLMs trained on general web corpora, in this paper, we set out to investigate their planning capabilities. We aim to evaluate (1) the effectiveness of LLMs in generating plans autonomously in commonsense planning tasks and (2) the potential of LLMs as a source of heuristic guidance for other agents (AI planners) in their planning tasks. We conduct a systematic study by generating a suite of instances on domains similar to the ones employed in the International Planning Competition and evaluate LLMs in two distinct modes: autonomous and heuristic. Our findings reveal that LLMs’ ability to generate executable plans autonomously is rather limited, with the best model (GPT-4) having an average success rate of ~12% across the domains. However, the results in the heuristic mode show more promise. In the heuristic mode, we demonstrate that LLM-generated plans can improve the search process for underlying sound planners and additionally show that external verifiers can help provide feedback on the generated plans and back-prompt the LLM for better plan generation.

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Differentiable Registration of Images and LiDAR Point Clouds with VoxelPoint-to-Pixel Matching

Junsheng Zhou, Baorui Ma, Wenyuan Zhang, Yi Fang, Yu-Shen Liu, Zhizhong Han

展开摘要

Cross-modality registration between 2D images captured by cameras and 3D point clouds from LiDARs is a crucial task in computer vision and robotic. Previous methods estimate 2D-3D correspondences by matching point and pixel patterns learned by neural networks, and use Perspective-n-Points (PnP) to estimate rigid transformation during post-processing. However, these methods struggle to map points and pixels to a shared latent space robustly since points and pixels have very different characteristics with patterns learned in different manners (MLP and CNN), and they also fail to construct supervision directly on the transformation since the PnP is non-differentiable, which leads to unstable registration results. To address these problems, we propose to learn a structured cross-modality latent space to represent pixel features and 3D features via a differentiable probabilistic PnP solver. Specifically, we design a triplet network to learn VoxelPoint-to-Pixel matching, where we represent 3D elements using both voxels and points to learn the cross-modality latent space with pixels. We design both the voxel and pixel branch based on CNNs to operate convolutions on voxels/pixels represented in grids, and integrate an additional point branch to regain the information lost during voxelization. We train our framework end-to-end by imposing supervisions directly on the predicted pose distribution with a probabilistic PnP solver. To explore distinctive patterns of cross-modality features, we design a novel loss with adaptive-weighted optimization for cross-modality feature description. The experimental results on KITTI and nuScenes datasets show significant improvements over the state-of-the-art methods.

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DeWave: Discrete Encoding of EEG Waves for EEG to Text Translation

Yiqun Duan, Charles Zhou, Zhen Wang, Yu-Kai Wang, Chin-teng Lin

展开摘要

The translation of brain dynamics into natural language is pivotal for brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), a field that has seen substantial growth in recent years. With the swift advancement of large language models, such as ChatGPT, the need to bridge the gap between the brain and languages becomes increasingly pressing. Current methods, however, require eye-tracking fixations or event markers to segment brain dynamics into word-level features, which can restrict the practical application of these systems. These event markers may not be readily available or could be challenging to acquire during real-time inference, and the sequence of eye fixations may not align with the order of spoken words. To tackle these issues, we introduce a novel framework, DeWave, that integrates discrete encoding sequences into open-vocabulary EEG-to-text translation tasks. DeWave uses a quantized variational encoder to derive discrete codex encoding and align it with pre-trained language models. This discrete codex representation brings forth two advantages: 1) it alleviates the order mismatch between eye fixations and spoken words by introducing text-EEG contrastive alignment training, and 2) it minimizes the interference caused by individual differences in EEG waves through an invariant discrete codex. Our model surpasses the previous baseline (40.1 and 31.7) by 3.06% and 6.34\%, respectively, achieving 41.35 BLEU-1 and 33.71 Rouge-F on the ZuCo Dataset. Furthermore, this work is the first to facilitate the translation of entire EEG signal periods without the need for word-level order markers (e.g., eye fixations), scoring 20.5 BLEU-1 and 29.5 Rouge-1 on the ZuCo Dataset, respectively.

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Max-Margin Token Selection in Attention Mechanism

Davoud Ataee Tarzanagh, Yingcong Li, Xuechen Zhang, Samet Oymak

展开摘要

Attention mechanism is a central component of the transformer architecture which led to the phenomenal success of large language models. However, the theoretical principles underlying the attention mechanism are poorly understood, especially its nonconvex optimization dynamics. In this work, we explore the seminal softmax-attention model $f(X)=\langle Xv, \texttt{softmax}(XWp)\rangle$, where $X$ is the token sequence and $(v,W,p)$ are trainable parameters. We prove that running gradient descent on $p$, or equivalently $W$, converges in direction to a max-margin solution that separates *locally-optimal* tokens from non-optimal ones. This clearly formalizes attention as an optimal token selection mechanism. Remarkably, our results are applicable to general data and precisely characterize *optimality* of tokens in terms of the value embeddings $Xv$ and problem geometry. We also provide a broader regularization path analysis that establishes the margin maximizing nature of attention even for nonlinear prediction heads. When optimizing $v$ and $p$ simultaneously with logistic loss, we identify conditions under which the regularization paths directionally converge to their respective hard-margin SVM solutions where $v$ separates the input features based on their labels. Interestingly, the SVM formulation of $p$ is influenced by the support vector geometry of $v$. Finally, we verify our theoretical findings via numerical experiments and provide insights.

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Full-Atom Protein Pocket Design via Iterative Refinement

ZAIXI ZHANG, Zepu Lu, Zhongkai Hao, Marinka Zitnik, Qi Liu

展开摘要

The design of \emph{de novo} functional proteins that bind with specific ligand molecules is crucial in various domains like therapeutics and bio-engineering. One vital yet challenging step is to design the protein pocket, the cavity region of protein where the ligand binds with. Existing methods suffer from inefficient generation, insufficient context modeling (ligand molecule), and incapability of generating sidechain atoms. To overcome the limitations, we propose a \textbf{F}ull-\textbf{A}tom \textbf{I}terative \textbf{R}efinement framework (\textbf{FAIR}) for protein pocket sequence (i.e., residue types) and 3D structure co-design. Generally, FAIR consists of two steps that follow a coarse-to-fine pipeline (backbone atoms to full atoms including sidechain) for full-atom generation. For efficiency, all residue types and structures are updated together in each round (i.e., full-shot refinement). In the first step, the residue types and backbone coordinates are updated with a hierarchical context encoder and two structure refinement modules capturing inter-residue and pocket-ligand interactions. The second step further models the sidechain atoms of pockets and updates residue types to achieve sequence-structure consistency. The structure of the binding ligand is also updated along with the above refinement iterations accounting for its flexibility. Finally, extensive evaluations show that FAIR outperforms baselines in efficiently designing high-quality pocket sequences and structures. Specifically, the average improvements on AAR and RMSD are over 10$\%$.

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Rank-N-Contrast: Learning Continuous Representations for Regression

Kaiwen Zha, Peng Cao, Jeany Son, Yuzhe Yang, Dina Katabi

展开摘要

Deep regression models typically learn in an end-to-end fashion without explicitly emphasizing a regression-aware representation. Consequently, the learned representations exhibit fragmentation and fail to capture the continuous nature of sample orders, inducing suboptimal results across a wide range of regression tasks. To fill the gap, we propose Rank-N-Contrast (RNC), a framework that learns continuous representations for regression by contrasting samples against each other based on their rankings in the target space. We demonstrate, theoretically and empirically, that RNC guarantees the desired order of learned representations in accordance with the target orders, enjoying not only better performance but also significantly improved robustness, efficiency, and generalization. Extensive experiments using five real-world regression datasets that span computer vision, human-computer interaction, and healthcare verify that RNC achieves state-of-the-art performance, highlighting its intriguing properties including better data efficiency, robustness to spurious targets and data corruptions, and generalization to distribution shifts.

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Exposing Attention Glitches with Flip-Flop Language Modeling

Bingbin Liu, Jordan T. Ash, Surbhi Goel, Akshay Krishnamurthy, Cyril Zhang

展开摘要

Why do large language models sometimes output factual inaccuracies and exhibit erroneous reasoning? The brittleness of these models, particularly when executing long chains of reasoning, currently seems to be an inevitable price to pay for their advanced capabilities of coherently synthesizing knowledge, pragmatics, and abstract thought. Towards making sense of this fundamentally unsolved problem, this work identifies and analyzes the phenomenon of _attention glitches_, in which the Transformer architecture's inductive biases intermittently fail to capture robust reasoning. To isolate the issue, we introduce _flip-flop language modeling_ (FFLM), a parametric family of synthetic benchmarks designed to probe the extrapolative behavior of neural language models. This simple generative task requires a model to copy binary symbols over long-range dependencies, ignoring the tokens in between. We find that Transformer FFLMs suffer from a long tail of sporadic reasoning errors, some of which we can eliminate using various regularization techniques. Our preliminary mechanistic analyses show why the remaining errors may be very difficult to diagnose and resolve. We hypothesize that attention glitches account for (some of) the closed-domain hallucinations in natural LLMs.

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Delegated Classification

Eden Saig, Inbal Talgam-Cohen, Nir Rosenfeld

展开摘要

When machine learning is outsourced to a rational agent, conflicts of interest might arise and severely impact predictive performance. In this work, we propose a theoretical framework for incentive-aware delegation of machine learning tasks. We model delegation as a principal-agent game, in which accurate learning can be incentivized by the principal using performance-based contracts. Adapting the economic theory of contract design to this setting, we define budget-optimal contracts and prove they take a simple threshold form under reasonable assumptions. In the binary-action case, the optimality of such contracts is shown to be equivalent to the classic Neyman-Pearson lemma, establishing a formal connection between contract design and statistical hypothesis testing. Empirically, we demonstrate that budget-optimal contracts can be constructed using small-scale data, leveraging recent advances in the study of learning curves and scaling laws. Performance and economic outcomes are evaluated using synthetic and real-world classification tasks.

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Auditing for Human Expertise

Rohan Alur, Loren Laine, Darrick K Li, Manish Raghavan, Devavrat Shah, Dennis Shung

展开摘要

High-stakes prediction tasks (e.g., patient diagnosis) are often handled by trained human experts. A common source of concern about automation in these settings is that experts may exercise intuition that is difficult to model and/or have access to information (e.g., conversations with a patient) that is simply unavailable to a would-be algorithm. This raises a natural question whether human experts add value which could not be captured by an algorithmic predictor. We develop a statistical framework under which we can pose this question as a natural hypothesis test. Indeed, as our framework highlights, detecting human expertise is more subtle than simply comparing the accuracy of expert predictions to those made by a particular learning algorithm. Instead, we propose a simple procedure which tests whether expert predictions are statistically independent from the outcomes of interest after conditioning on the available inputs (‘features’). A rejection of our test thus suggests that human experts may add value to any algorithm trained on the available data, and has direct implications for whether human-AI ‘complementarity’ is achievable in a given prediction task. We highlight the utility of our procedure using admissions data collected from the emergency department of a large academic hospital system, where we show that physicians’ admit/discharge decisions for patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (AGIB) appear to be incorporating information that is not available to a standard algorithmic screening tool. This is despite the fact that the screening tool is arguably more accurate than physicians’ discretionary decisions, highlighting that – even absent normative concerns about accountability or interpretability – accuracy is insufficient to justify algorithmic automation.

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