NeurIPS 2023 论文列表

Structural causal models (SCMs) are widely used in various disciplines to represent causal relationships among variables in complex systems. Unfortunately, the underlying causal structure is often unknown, and estimating it from data remains a challenging task. In many situations, however, the end goal is to localize the changes (shifts) in the causal mechanisms between related datasets instead of learning the full causal structure of the individual datasets. Some applications include root cause analysis, analyzing gene regulatory network structure changes between healthy and cancerous individuals, or explaining distribution shifts. This paper focuses on identifying the causal mechanism shifts in two or more related datasets over the same set of variables---*without estimating the entire DAG structure of each SCM*. Prior work under this setting assumed linear models with Gaussian noises; instead, in this work we assume that each SCM belongs to the more general class of *nonlinear* additive noise models (ANMs). A key technical contribution of this work is to show that the Jacobian of the score function for the *mixture distribution* allows for the identification of shifts under general non-parametric functional mechanisms. Once the shifted variables are identified, we leverage recent work to estimate the structural differences, if any, for the shifted variables. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data are provided to showcase the applicability of this approach. Code implementing the proposed method is open-source and publicly available at https://github.com/kevinsbello/iSCAN.

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for discrete statistical models, which can find exact solutions to a large class of discrete inference problems, even with infinite support and continuous priors. To express such models, we introduce a probabilistic programming language that supports discrete and continuous sampling, discrete observations, affine functions, (stochastic) branching, and conditioning on discrete events. Our key tool is *probability generating functions*: they provide a compact closed-form representation of distributions that are definable by programs, thus enabling the exact computation of posterior probabilities, expectation, variance, and higher moments. Our inference method is provably correct and fully automated in a tool called *Genfer*, which uses automatic differentiation (specifically, Taylor polynomials), but does not require computer algebra. Our experiments show that Genfer is often faster than the existing exact inference tools PSI, Dice, and Prodigy. On a range of real-world inference problems that none of these exact tools can solve, Genfer's performance is competitive with approximate Monte Carlo methods, while avoiding approximation errors.

Transformer large language models (LLMs) have sparked admiration for their exceptional performance on tasks that demand intricate multi-step reasoning. Yet, these models simultaneously show failures on surprisingly trivial problems. This begs the question: Are these errors incidental, or do they signal more substantial limitations? In an attempt to demystify transformer LLMs, we investigate the limits of these models across three representative compositional tasks---multi-digit multiplication, logic grid puzzles, and a classic dynamic programming problem. These tasks require breaking problems down into sub-steps and synthesizing these steps into a precise answer. We formulate compositional tasks as computation graphs to systematically quantify the level of complexity, and break down reasoning steps into intermediate sub-procedures. Our empirical findings suggest that transformer LLMs solve compositional tasks by reducing multi-step compositional reasoning into linearized subgraph matching, without necessarily developing systematic problem-solving skills. To round off our empirical study, we provide theoretical arguments on abstract multi-step reasoning problems that highlight how autoregressive generations' performance can rapidly decay with increased task complexity.

Sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance suffers from redundant projections due to independent uniform random projecting directions. To partially overcome the issue, max K sliced Wasserstein (Max-K-SW) distance ($K\geq 1$), seeks the best discriminative orthogonal projecting directions. Despite being able to reduce the number of projections, the metricity of the Max-K-SW cannot be guaranteed in practice due to the non-optimality of the optimization. Moreover, the orthogonality constraint is also computationally expensive and might not be effective. To address the problem, we introduce a new family of SW distances, named Markovian sliced Wasserstein (MSW) distance, which imposes a first-order Markov structure on projecting directions. We discuss various members of the MSW by specifying the Markov structure including the prior distribution, the transition distribution, and the burning and thinning technique. Moreover, we investigate the theoretical properties of MSW including topological properties (metricity, weak convergence, and connection to other distances), statistical properties (sample complexity, and Monte Carlo estimation error), and computational properties (computational complexity and memory complexity). Finally, we compare MSW distances with previous SW variants in various applications such as gradient flows, color transfer, and deep generative modeling to demonstrate the favorable performance of the MSW.

Flexible models for probability distributions are an essential ingredient in many machine learning tasks. We develop and investigate a new class of probability distributions, which we call a Squared Neural Family (SNEFY), formed by squaring the 2-norm of a neural network and normalising it with respect to a base measure. Following the reasoning similar to the well established connections between infinitely wide neural networks and Gaussian processes, we show that SNEFYs admit closed form normalising constants in many cases of interest, thereby resulting in flexible yet fully tractable density models. SNEFYs strictly generalise classical exponential families, are closed under conditioning, and have tractable marginal distributions. Their utility is illustrated on a variety of density estimation, conditional density estimation, and density estimation with missing data tasks.

*Molecular dynamics* (MD) simulation is a widely used technique to simulate molecular systems, most commonly at the all-atom resolution where equations of motion are integrated with timesteps on the order of femtoseconds ($1\textrm{fs}=10^{-15}\textrm{s}$). MD is often used to compute equilibrium properties, which requires sampling from an equilibrium distribution such as the Boltzmann distribution. However, many important processes, such as binding and folding, occur over timescales of milliseconds or beyond, and cannot be efficiently sampled with conventional MD. Furthermore, new MD simulations need to be performed for each molecular system studied. We present *Timewarp*, an enhanced sampling method which uses a normalising flow as a proposal distribution in a Markov chain Monte Carlo method targeting the Boltzmann distribution. The flow is trained offline on MD trajectories and learns to make large steps in time, simulating the molecular dynamics of $10^{5} - 10^{6} \textrm{fs}$. Crucially, Timewarp is *transferable* between molecular systems: once trained, we show that it generalises to unseen small peptides (2-4 amino acids) at all-atom resolution, exploring their metastable states and providing wall-clock acceleration of sampling compared to standard MD. Our method constitutes an important step towards general, transferable algorithms for accelerating MD.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is a special and practical setting in unsupervised domain adaptation, which allows a pre-trained model in a source domain to adapt to unlabeled test data in another target domain. To avoid the computation-intensive backbone fine-tuning process, the zero-shot generalization potentials of the emerging pre-trained vision-language models (e.g., CLIP, CoOp) are leveraged to only tune the run-time prompt for unseen test domains. However, existing solutions have yet to fully exploit the representation capabilities of pre-trained models as they only focus on the entropy-based optimization and the performance is far below the supervised prompt adaptation methods, e.g., CoOp. In this paper, we propose SwapPrompt, a novel framework that can effectively leverage the self-supervised contrastive learning to facilitate the test-time prompt adaptation. SwapPrompt employs a dual prompts paradigm, i.e., an online prompt and a target prompt that averaged from the online prompt to retain historical information. In addition, SwapPrompt applies a swapped prediction mechanism, which takes advantage of the representation capabilities of pre-trained models to enhance the online prompt via contrastive learning. Specifically, we use the online prompt together with an augmented view of the input image to predict the class assignment generated by the target prompt together with an alternative augmented view of the same image. The proposed SwapPrompt can be easily deployed on vision-language models without additional requirement, and experimental results show that it achieves state-of-the-art test-time adaptation performance on ImageNet and nine other datasets. It is also shown that SwapPrompt can even achieve comparable performance with supervised prompt adaptation methods.

We propose a novel framework for analyzing the dynamics of distribution shift in real-world systems that captures the feedback loop between learning algorithms and the distributions on which they are deployed. Prior work largely models feedback-induced distribution shift as adversarial or via an overly simplistic distribution-shift structure. In contrast, we propose a coupled partial differential equation model that captures fine-grained changes in the distribution over time by accounting for complex dynamics that arise due to strategic responses to algorithmic decision-making, non-local endogenous population interactions, and other exogenous sources of distribution shift. We consider two common settings in machine learning: cooperative settings with information asymmetries, and competitive settings where a learner faces strategic users. For both of these settings, when the algorithm retrains via gradient descent, we prove asymptotic convergence of the retraining procedure to a steady-state, both in finite and in infinite dimensions, obtaining explicit rates in terms of the model parameters. To do so we derive new results on the convergence of coupled PDEs that extends what is known on multi-species systems. Empirically, we show that our approach captures well-documented forms of distribution shifts like polarization and disparate impacts that simpler models cannot capture.

Length generalization, the ability to generalize from small training context sizes to larger ones, is a critical challenge in the development of Transformer-based language models. Positional encoding (PE) has been identified as a major factor influencing length generalization, but the exact impact of different PE schemes on extrapolation in downstream tasks remains unclear. In this paper, we conduct a systematic empirical study comparing the length generalization performance of decoder-only Transformers with five different position encoding approaches including Absolute Position Embedding (APE), T5's Relative PE, ALiBi, and Rotary, in addition to Transformers without positional encoding (NoPE). Our evaluation encompasses a battery of reasoning and mathematical tasks. Our findings reveal that the most commonly used positional encoding methods, such as ALiBi, Rotary, and APE, are not well suited for length generalization in downstream tasks. More importantly, NoPE outperforms other explicit positional encoding methods while requiring no additional computation. We theoretically demonstrate that NoPE can represent both absolute and relative PEs, but when trained with SGD, it mostly resembles T5's relative PE attention patterns. Finally, we find that scratchpad is not always helpful to solve length generalization and its format highly impacts the model's performance. Overall, our work suggests that explicit position embeddings are not essential for decoder-only Transformers to generalize well to longer sequences.

We propose a causal interpretation of self-attention in the Transformer neural network architecture. We interpret self-attention as a mechanism that estimates a structural equation model for a given input sequence of symbols (tokens). The structural equation model can be interpreted, in turn, as a causal structure over the input symbols under the specific context of the input sequence. Importantly, this interpretation remains valid in the presence of latent confounders. Following this interpretation, we estimate conditional independence relations between input symbols by calculating partial correlations between their corresponding representations in the deepest attention layer. This enables learning the causal structure over an input sequence using existing constraint-based algorithms. In this sense, existing pre-trained Transformers can be utilized for zero-shot causal-discovery. We demonstrate this method by providing causal explanations for the outcomes of Transformers in two tasks: sentiment classification (NLP) and recommendation.

Attention networks such as transformers have achieved state-of-the-art performance in many domains. These networks rely heavily on the dot product attention operator, which computes the similarity between two points by taking their inner product. However, the inner product does not explicitly model the complex structural properties of real world datasets, such as hierarchies between data points. To remedy this, we introduce cone attention, a drop-in replacement for dot product attention based on hyperbolic entailment cones. Cone attention associates two points by the depth of their lowest common ancestor in a hierarchy defined by hyperbolic cones, which intuitively measures the divergence of two points and gives a $\textit{hierarchy aware}$ similarity score. We test cone attention on a wide variety of models and tasks and show that it improves task-level performance over dot product attention and other baselines, and is able to match dot-product attention with significantly fewer parameters. Our results suggest that cone attention is an effective way to capture hierarchical relationships when calculating attention.

In real applications, interaction between machine learning models and domain experts is critical; however, the classical machine learning paradigm that usually produces only a single model does not facilitate such interaction. Approximating and exploring the Rashomon set, i.e., the set of all near-optimal models, addresses this practical challenge by providing the user with a searchable space containing a diverse set of models from which domain experts can choose. We present algorithms to efficiently and accurately approximate the Rashomon set of sparse, generalized additive models with ellipsoids for fixed support sets and use these ellipsoids to approximate Rashomon sets for many different support sets. The approximated Rashomon set serves as a cornerstone to solve practical challenges such as (1) studying the variable importance for the model class; (2) finding models under user-specified constraints (monotonicity, direct editing); and (3) investigating sudden changes in the shape functions. Experiments demonstrate the fidelity of the approximated Rashomon set and its effectiveness in solving practical challenges.

A Top Two sampling rule for bandit identification is a method which selects the next arm to sample from among two candidate arms, a *leader* and a *challenger*. Due to their simplicity and good empirical performance, they have received increased attention in recent years. However, for fixed-confidence best arm identification, theoretical guarantees for Top Two methods have only been obtained in the asymptotic regime, when the error level vanishes. In this paper, we derive the first non-asymptotic upper bound on the expected sample complexity of a Top Two algorithm, which holds for any error level. Our analysis highlights sufficient properties for a regret minimization algorithm to be used as leader. These properties are satisfied by the UCB algorithm, and our proposed UCB-based Top Two algorithm simultaneously enjoys non-asymptotic guarantees and competitive empirical performance.

The promising zero-shot generalization of vision-language models such as CLIP has led to their adoption using prompt learning for numerous downstream tasks. Previous works have shown test-time prompt tuning using entropy minimization to adapt text prompts for unseen domains. While effective, this overlooks the key cause for performance degradation to unseen domains -- distribution shift. In this work, we explicitly handle this problem by aligning the out-of-distribution (OOD) test sample statistics to those of the source data using prompt tuning. We use a single test sample to adapt multi-modal prompts at test time by minimizing the feature distribution shift to bridge the gap in the test domain. Evaluating against the domain generalization benchmark, our method improves zero-shot top-1 accuracy beyond existing prompt-learning techniques, with a 3.08% improvement over the baseline MaPLe. In cross-dataset generalization with unseen categories across 10 datasets, our method improves consistently across all datasets compared to the existing state-of-the-art. Our source code and models are available at [https://jameelhassan.github.io/promptalign](https://jameelhassan.github.io/promptalign)

Reasoning system dynamics is one of the most important analytical approaches for many scientific studies. With the initial state of a system as input, the recent graph neural networks (GNNs)-based methods are capable of predicting the future state distant in time with high accuracy. Although these methods have diverse designs in modeling the coordinates and interacting forces of the system, we show that they actually share a common paradigm that learns the integration of the velocity over the interval between the initial and terminal coordinates. However, their integrand is constant w.r.t. time. Inspired by this observation, we propose a new approach to predict the integration based on several velocity estimations with Newton–Cotes formulas and prove its effectiveness theoretically. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks empirically demonstrate consistent and significant improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

Agents with the ability to comprehend and reason about the dynamics of objects would be expected to exhibit improved robustness and generalization in novel scenarios. However, achieving this capability necessitates not only an effective scene representation but also an understanding of the mechanisms governing interactions among object subsets. Recent studies have made significant progress in representing scenes using object slots. In this work, we introduce Reusable Slotwise Mechanisms, or RSM, a framework that models object dynamics by leveraging communication among slots along with a modular architecture capable of dynamically selecting reusable mechanisms for predicting the future states of each object slot. Crucially, RSM leverages the Central Contextual Information (CCI), enabling selected mechanisms to access the remaining slots through a bottleneck, effectively allowing for modeling of higher order and complex interactions that might require a sparse subset of objects. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of RSM compared to state-of-the-art methods across various future prediction and related downstream tasks, including Visual Question Answering and action planning. Furthermore, we showcase RSM’s Out-of-Distribution generalization ability to handle scenes in intricate scenarios.

Image classifiers are information-discarding machines, by design. Yet, how these models discard information remains mysterious. We hypothesize that one way for image classifiers to reach high accuracy is to first zoom to the most discriminative region in the image and then extract features from there to predict image labels, discarding the rest of the image. Studying six popular networks ranging from AlexNet to CLIP, we find that proper framing of the input image can lead to the correct classification of 98.91% of ImageNet images. Furthermore, we uncover positional biases in various datasets, especially a strong center bias in two popular datasets: ImageNet-A and ObjectNet. Finally, leveraging our insights into the potential of zooming, we propose a test-time augmentation (TTA) technique that improves classification accuracy by forcing models to explicitly perform zoom-in operations before making predictions. Our method is more interpretable, accurate, and faster than MEMO, a state-of-the-art (SOTA) TTA method. We introduce ImageNet-Hard, a new benchmark that challenges SOTA classifiers including large vision-language models even when optimal zooming is allowed.

To avoid failures on out-of-distribution data, recent works have sought to extract features that have an invariant or stable relationship with the label across domains, discarding "spurious" or unstable features whose relationship with the label changes across domains. However, unstable features often carry complementary information that could boost performance if used correctly in the test domain. In this work, we show how this can be done without test-domain labels. In particular, we prove that pseudo-labels based on stable features provide sufficient guidance for doing so, provided that stable and unstable features are conditionally independent given the label. Based on this theoretical insight, we propose Stable Feature Boosting (SFB), an algorithm for: (i) learning a predictor that separates stable and conditionally-independent unstable features; and (ii) using the stable-feature predictions to adapt the unstable-feature predictions in the test domain. Theoretically, we prove that SFB can learn an asymptotically-optimal predictor without test-domain labels. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SFB on real and synthetic data.

In everyday conversations, humans can take on different roles and adapt their vocabulary to their chosen roles. We explore whether LLMs can take on, that is impersonate, different roles when they generate text in-context. We ask LLMs to assume different personas before solving vision and language tasks. We do this by prefixing the prompt with a persona that is associated either with a social identity or domain expertise. In a multi-armed bandit task, we find that LLMs pretending to be children of different ages recover human-like developmental stages of exploration. In a language-based reasoning task, we find that LLMs impersonating domain experts perform better than LLMs impersonating non-domain experts. Finally, we test whether LLMs' impersonations are complementary to visual information when describing different categories. We find that impersonation can improve performance: an LLM prompted to be a bird expert describes birds better than one prompted to be a car expert. However, impersonation can also uncover LLMs' biases: an LLM prompted to be a man describes cars better than one prompted to be a woman. These findings demonstrate that LLMs are capable of taking on diverse roles and that this in-context impersonation can be used to uncover their strengths and hidden biases. Our code is available at https://github.com/ExplainableML/in-context-impersonation.