变分推断

High-energy collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) provide valuable insights into open questions in particle physics. However, detector effects must be corrected before measurements can be compared to certain theoretical predictions or measurements from other detectors. Methods to solve this inverse problem of mapping detector observations to theoretical quantities of the underlying collision are essential parts of many physics analyses at the LHC. We investigate and compare various generative deep learning methods to approximate this inverse mapping. We introduce a novel unified architecture, termed latent variational diffusion models, which combines the latent learning of cutting-edge generative art approaches with an end-to-end variational framework. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach for reconstructing global distributions of theoretical kinematic quantities, as well as for ensuring the adherence of the learned posterior distributions to known physics constraints. Our unified approach achieves a distribution-free distance to the truth of over 20 times smaller than non-latent state-of-the-art baseline and 3 times smaller than traditional latent diffusion models.

Single-call stochastic extragradient methods, like stochastic past extragradient (SPEG) and stochastic optimistic gradient (SOG), have gained a lot of interest in recent years and are one of the most efficient algorithms for solving large-scale min-max optimization and variational inequalities problems (VIP) appearing in various machine learning tasks. However, despite their undoubted popularity, current convergence analyses of SPEG and SOG require strong assumptions like bounded variance or growth conditions. In addition, several important questions regarding the convergence properties of these methods are still open, including mini-batching, efficient step-size selection, and convergence guarantees under different sampling strategies. In this work, we address these questions and provide convergence guarantees for two large classes of structured non-monotone VIPs: (i) quasi-strongly monotone problems (a generalization of strongly monotone problems) and (ii) weak Minty variational inequalities (a generalization of monotone and Minty VIPs). We introduce the expected residual condition, explain its benefits, and show how it allows us to obtain a strictly weaker bound than previously used growth conditions, expected co-coercivity, or bounded variance assumptions. Finally, our convergence analysis holds under the arbitrary sampling paradigm, which includes importance sampling and various mini-batching strategies as special cases.

Decision trees are a well-established tool in machine learning for classification and regression tasks. In this paper, we introduce a novel non-parametric Bayesian model that uses variational inference to approximate a posterior distribution over the space of stochastic decision trees. We evaluate the model's performance on 18 datasets and demonstrate its competitiveness with other state-of-the-art methods in regression tasks. We also explore its application to causal inference problems. We provide a fully vectorized implementation of our algorithm in PyTorch.

Particle-based variational inference methods (ParVIs) such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) update the particles based on the kernelized Wasserstein gradient flow for the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. However, the design of kernels is often non-trivial and can be restrictive for the flexibility of the method. Recent works show that functional gradient flow approximations with quadratic form regularization terms can improve performance. In this paper, we propose a ParVI framework, called generalized Wasserstein gradient descent (GWG), based on a generalized Wasserstein gradient flow of the KL divergence, which can be viewed as a functional gradient method with a broader class of regularizers induced by convex functions. We show that GWG exhibits strong convergence guarantees. We also provide an adaptive version that automatically chooses Wasserstein metric to accelerate convergence. In experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed framework on both simulated and real data problems.

Variational Gaussian processes (GPs) approximate exact GP inference by using a small set of inducing points to form a sparse approximation of the true posterior, with the fidelity of the model increasing with additional inducing points. Although the approximation error in principle can be reduced through the use of more inducing points, this leads to scaling optimization challenges and computational complexity. To achieve scalability, inducing point methods typically introduce conditional independencies and then approximations to the training and test conditional distributions. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach to modifying the training and test conditionals, in which we make them more flexible. In particular, we investigate decoupling the parametric form of the predictive mean and covariance in the conditionals, and learn independent parameters for predictive mean and covariance. We derive new evidence lower bounds (ELBO) under these more flexible conditionals, and provide two concrete examples of applying the decoupled conditionals. Empirically, we find this additional flexibility leads to improved model performance on a variety of regression tasks and Bayesian optimization (BO) applications.

The elusive nature of gradient-based optimization in neural networks is tied to their loss landscape geometry, which is poorly understood. However recent work has brought solid evidence that there is essentially no loss barrier between the local solutions of gradient descent, once accounting for weight-permutations that leave the network's computation unchanged. This raises questions for approximate inference in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), where we are interested in marginalizing over multiple points in the loss landscape. In this work, we first extend the formalism of marginalized loss barrier and solution interpolation to BNNs, before proposing a matching algorithm to search for linearly connected solutions. This is achieved by aligning the distributions of two independent approximate Bayesian solutions with respect to permutation matrices. Building on the work of Ainsworth et al. (2023), we frame the problem as a combinatorial optimization one, using an approximation to the sum of bilinear assignment problem. We then experiment on a variety of architectures and datasets, finding nearly zero marginalized loss barriers for linearly connected solutions.

Since their inception, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have become central in machine learning. Despite their widespread use, numerous questions regarding their theoretical properties remain open. Using PAC-Bayesian theory, this work develops statistical guarantees for VAEs. First, we derive the first PAC-Bayesian bound for posterior distributions conditioned on individual samples from the data-generating distribution. Then, we utilize this result to develop generalization guarantees for the VAE's reconstruction loss, as well as upper bounds on the distance between the input and the regenerated distributions. More importantly, we provide upper bounds on the Wasserstein distance between the input distribution and the distribution defined by the VAE's generative model.

Large language models (LLMs) can be seen as atomic units of computation mapping sequences to a distribution over sequences. Thus, they can be seen as stochastic language layers in a language network, where the learnable parameters are the natural language prompts at each layer. By stacking two such layers and feeding the output of one layer to the next, we obtain a Deep Language Network (DLN). We first show how to effectively perform prompt optimization for a 1-Layer language network (DLN-1). Then, we present an extension that applies to 2-layer DLNs (DLN-2), where two prompts must be learned. The key idea is to consider the output of the first layer as a latent variable, which requires inference, and prompts to be learned as the parameters of the generative distribution. We first test the effectiveness of DLN-1 in multiple reasoning and natural language understanding tasks. Then, we show that DLN-2 can reach higher performance than a single layer, showing promise that we might reach comparable performance to GPT-4, even when each LLM in the network is smaller and less powerful.

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) has been introduced to expand the analytical variational families by defining expressive semi-implicit distributions in a hierarchical manner. However, the single-layer architecture commonly used in current SIVI methods can be insufficient when the target posterior has complicated structures. In this paper, we propose hierarchical semi-implicit variational inference, called HSIVI, which generalizes SIVI to allow more expressive multi-layer construction of semi-implicit distributions. By introducing auxiliary distributions that interpolate between a simple base distribution and the target distribution, the conditional layers can be trained by progressively matching these auxiliary distributions one layer after another. Moreover, given pre-trained score networks, HSIVI can be used to accelerate the sampling process of diffusion models with the score matching objective. We show that HSIVI significantly enhances the expressiveness of SIVI on several Bayesian inference problems with complicated target distributions. When used for diffusion model acceleration, we show that HSIVI can produce high quality samples comparable to or better than the existing fast diffusion model based samplers with a small number of function evaluations on various datasets.

The neural network structures of generative models and their corresponding inference models paired in variational autoencoders (VAEs) play a critical role in the models' generative performance. However, powerful VAE network structures are hand-crafted and fixed prior to training, resulting in a one-size-fits-all approach that requires heavy computation to tune for given data. Moreover, existing VAE regularization methods largely overlook the importance of network structures and fail to prevent overfitting in deep VAE models with cascades of hidden layers. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian inference framework that automatically adapts VAE network structures to data and prevent overfitting as they grow deeper. We model the number of hidden layers with a beta process to infer the most plausible encoding/decoding network depths warranted by data and perform layer-wise dropout regularization with a conjugate Bernoulli process. We develop a scalable estimator that performs joint inference on both VAE network structures and latent variables. Our experiments show that the inference framework effectively prevents overfitting in both shallow and deep VAE models, yielding state-of-the-art performance. We demonstrate that our framework is compatible with different types of VAE backbone networks and can be applied to various VAE variants, further improving their performance.

Black-box variational inference is widely used in situations where there is no proof that its stochastic optimization succeeds. We suggest this is due to a theoretical gap in existing stochastic optimization proofs—namely the challenge of gradient estimators with unusual noise bounds, and a composite non-smooth objective. For dense Gaussian variational families, we observe that existing gradient estimators based on reparameterization satisfy a quadratic noise bound and give novel convergence guarantees for proximal and projected stochastic gradient descent using this bound. This provides rigorous guarantees that methods similar to those used in practice converge on realistic inference problems.

The marriage of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and Homomorphic Encryption (HE) enables the inference of graph data on the cloud with significantly enhanced client data privacy. However, the tremendous computation and memory overhead associated with HE operations challenges the practicality of HE-based GCN inference. GCN inference involves a sequence of expensive matrix-matrix multiplications, and we observe that directly applying the state-of-the-art HE-based secure matrix-matrix multiplication solutions to accelerate HE-GCN inference is far less efficient as it does not exploit the unique aggregation mechanism of two-dimension graph node-features in GCN layer computation. As a result, in this paper, we propose a novel HE-based ciphertext packing technique, i.e., Penguin, that can take advantage of the unique computation pattern during the HE-GCN inference to significantly reduce the computation and memory overhead associated with HE operations. Specifically, Penguin employs (i) an effective two-dimension parallel packing technique for feature ciphertext with optimal graph node partitioning and graph feature interleaving, and (ii) an interleaved assembly technique that can effectively make use of the blank slots to merge ciphertexts after feature reduction and significantly reduce the costly rotation operation. We provide theoretical analysis and experimental validation to demonstrate the speedup achieved by Penguin in accelerating GCN inference using popular GCN models and datasets. Our results show that Penguin can achieve up to $\sim10\times$ speedup and around $\sim79$% reduction in computational memory overhead, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art solutions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that can ensure the protection of both graph structure and features when accelerating HE-GCN inference on encrypted data. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ranran0523/Penguin.

We propose a notion of common information that allows one to quantify and separate the information that is shared between two random variables from the information that is unique to each. Our notion of common information is defined by an optimization problem over a family of functions and recovers the G\'acs-K\"orner common information as a special case. Importantly, our notion can be approximated empirically using samples from the underlying data distribution. We then provide a method to partition and quantify the common and unique information using a simple modification of a traditional variational auto-encoder. Empirically, we demonstrate that our formulation allows us to learn semantically meaningful common and unique factors of variation even on high-dimensional data such as images and videos. Moreover, on datasets where ground-truth latent factors are known, we show that we can accurately quantify the common information between the random variables.

We provide the first convergence guarantee for black-box variational inference (BBVI) with the reparameterization gradient. While preliminary investigations worked on simplified versions of BBVI (e.g., bounded domain, bounded support, only optimizing for the scale, and such), our setup does not need any such algorithmic modifications. Our results hold for log-smooth posterior densities with and without strong log-concavity and the location-scale variational family. Notably, our analysis reveals that certain algorithm design choices commonly employed in practice, such as nonlinear parameterizations of the scale matrix, can result in suboptimal convergence rates. Fortunately, running BBVI with proximal stochastic gradient descent fixes these limitations and thus achieves the strongest known convergence guarantees. We evaluate this theoretical insight by comparing proximal SGD against other standard implementations of BBVI on large-scale Bayesian inference problems.

Existing regression models tend to fall short in both accuracy and uncertainty estimation when the label distribution is imbalanced. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic deep learning model, dubbed variational imbalanced regression (VIR), which not only performs well in imbalanced regression but naturally produces reasonable uncertainty estimation as a byproduct. Different from typical variational autoencoders assuming I.I.D. representations (a data point's representation is not directly affected by other data points), our VIR borrows data with similar regression labels to compute the latent representation's variational distribution; furthermore, different from deterministic regression models producing point estimates, VIR predicts the entire normal-inverse-gamma distributions and modulates the associated conjugate distributions to impose probabilistic reweighting on the imbalanced data, thereby providing better uncertainty estimation. Experiments in several real-world datasets show that our VIR can outperform state-of-the-art imbalanced regression models in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty estimation. Code will soon be available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/variational-imbalanced-regression.

A Bayesian pseudocoreset is a compact synthetic dataset summarizing essential information of a large-scale dataset and thus can be used as a proxy dataset for scalable Bayesian inference. Typically, a Bayesian pseudocoreset is constructed by minimizing a divergence measure between the posterior conditioning on the pseudocoreset and the posterior conditioning on the full dataset. However, evaluating the divergence can be challenging, particularly for the models like deep neural networks having high-dimensional parameters. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian pseudocoreset construction method that operates on a function space. Unlike previous methods, which construct and match the coreset and full data posteriors in the space of model parameters (weights), our method constructs variational approximations to the coreset posterior on a function space and matches it to the full data posterior in the function space. By working directly on the function space, our method could bypass several challenges that may arise when working on a weight space, including limited scalability and multi-modality issue. Through various experiments, we demonstrate that the Bayesian pseudocoresets constructed from our method enjoys enhanced uncertainty quantification and better robustness across various model architectures.

Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately---unless the tails of the base distribution are appropriately calibrated. To overcome this deficiency, we propose a systematic approach for analyzing the tails of random variables, and we illustrate how this approach can be used during the static analysis (before drawing samples) pass of a probabilistic programming language (PPL) compiler. To characterize how the tails change under various operations, we develop an algebra which acts on a three-parameter family of tail asymptotics and which is based on the generalized Gamma distribution. Our algebraic operations are closed under addition and multiplication; they are capable of distinguishing sub-Gaussians with differing scales; and they handle ratios sufficiently well to reproduce the tails of most important statistical distributions directly from their definitions. Our empirical results confirm that inference algorithms that leverage our heavy-tailed algebra attain superior performance across a number of density modeling and variational inference (VI) tasks.

We consider the problem of solving stochastic monotone variational inequalities with a separable structure using a stochastic first-order oracle. Building on standard extragradient for variational inequalities we propose a novel algorithm---stochastic \emph{accelerated gradient-extragradient} (AG-EG)---for strongly monotone variational inequalities (VIs). Our approach combines the strengths of extragradient and Nesterov acceleration. By showing that its iterates remain in a bounded domain and applying scheduled restarting, we prove that AG-EG has an optimal convergence rate for strongly monotone VIs. Furthermore, when specializing to the particular case of bilinearly coupled strongly-convex-strongly-concave saddle-point problems, including bilinear games, our algorithm achieves fine-grained convergence rates that match the respective lower bounds, with the stochasticity being characterized by an additive statistical error term that is optimal up to a constant prefactor.

We consider the problem of variational Bayesian inference in a latent variable model where a (possibly complex) observed stochastic process is governed by the unobserved solution of a latent stochastic differential equation (SDE). Motivated by the challenges that arise when trying to learn a latent SDE in $\mathbb{R}^n$ from large-scale data, such as efficient gradient computation, we take a step back and study a specific subclass instead. In our case, the SDE evolves inside a homogeneous latent space and is induced by stochastic dynamics of the corresponding (matrix) Lie group. In the context of learning problems, SDEs on the $n$-dimensional unit sphere are arguably the most relevant incarnation of this setup. For variational inference, the sphere not only facilitates using a uniform prior on the initial state of the SDE, but we also obtain a particularly simple and intuitive expression for the KL divergence between the approximate posterior and prior process in the evidence lower bound. We provide empirical evidence that a latent SDE of the proposed type can be learned efficiently by means of an existing one-step geometric Euler-Maruyama scheme. Despite restricting ourselves to a less diverse class of SDEs, we achieve competitive or even state-of-the-art performance on a collection of time series interpolation and classification benchmarks.

Data assimilation, in its most comprehensive form, addresses the Bayesian inverse problem of identifying plausible state trajectories that explain noisy or incomplete observations of stochastic dynamical systems. Various approaches have been proposed to solve this problem, including particle-based and variational methods. However, most algorithms depend on the transition dynamics for inference, which becomes intractable for long time horizons or for high-dimensional systems with complex dynamics, such as oceans or atmospheres. In this work, we introduce score-based data assimilation for trajectory inference. We learn a score-based generative model of state trajectories based on the key insight that the score of an arbitrarily long trajectory can be decomposed into a series of scores over short segments. After training, inference is carried out using the score model, in a non-autoregressive manner by generating all states simultaneously. Quite distinctively, we decouple the observation model from the training procedure and use it only at inference to guide the generative process, which enables a wide range of zero-shot observation scenarios. We present theoretical and empirical evidence supporting the effectiveness of our method.