NeurIPS 2015 论文列表

We consider an adversarial formulation of the problem ofpredicting a time series with square loss. The aim is to predictan arbitrary sequence of vectors almost as well as the bestsmooth comparator sequence in retrospect. Our approach allowsnatural measures of smoothness such as the squared norm ofincrements. More generally, we consider a linear time seriesmodel and penalize the comparator sequence through the energy ofthe implied driving noise terms. We derive the minimax strategyfor all problems of this type and show that it can be implementedefficiently. The optimal predictions are linear in the previousobservations. We obtain an explicit expression for the regret interms of the parameters defining the problem. For typical,simple definitions of smoothness, the computation of the optimalpredictions involves only sparse matrices. In the case ofnorm-constrained data, where the smoothness is defined in termsof the squared norm of the comparator's increments, we show thatthe regret grows as $T/\sqrt{\lambda_T}$, where $T$ is the lengthof the game and $\lambda_T$ is an increasing limit on comparatorsmoothness.

We present the Mind the Gap Model (MGM), an approach for interpretable feature extraction and selection. By placing interpretability criteria directly into the model, we allow for the model to both optimize parameters related to interpretability and to directly report a global set of distinguishable dimensions to assist with further data exploration and hypothesis generation. MGM extracts distinguishing features on real-world datasets of animal features, recipes ingredients, and disease co-occurrence. It also maintains or improves performance when compared to related approaches. We perform a user study with domain experts to show the MGM's ability to help with dataset exploration.

Inference is typically intractable in high-treewidth undirected graphical models, making maximum likelihood learning a challenge. One way to overcome this is to restrict parameters to a tractable set, most typically the set of tree-structured parameters. This paper explores an alternative notion of a tractable set, namely a set of “fast-mixing parameters” where Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference can be guaranteed to quickly converge to the stationary distribution. While it is common in practice to approximate the likelihood gradient using samples obtained from MCMC, such procedures lack theoretical guarantees. This paper proves that for any exponential family with bounded sufficient statistics, (not just graphical models) when parameters are constrained to a fast-mixing set, gradient descent with gradients approximated by sampling will approximate the maximum likelihood solution inside the set with high-probability. When unregularized, to find a solution epsilon-accurate in log-likelihood requires a total amount of effort cubic in 1/epsilon, disregarding logarithmic factors. When ridge-regularized, strong convexity allows a solution epsilon-accurate in parameter distance with an effort quadratic in 1/epsilon. Both of these provide of a fully-polynomial time randomized approximation scheme.

Learning-from-crowds aims to design proper aggregation strategies to infer the unknown true labels from the noisy labels provided by ordinary web workers. This paper presents max-margin majority voting (M^3V) to improve the discriminative ability of majority voting and further presents a Bayesian generalization to incorporate the flexibility of generative methods on modeling noisy observations with worker confusion matrices. We formulate the joint learning as a regularized Bayesian inference problem, where the posterior regularization is derived by maximizing the margin between the aggregated score of a potential true label and that of any alternative label. Our Bayesian model naturally covers the Dawid-Skene estimator and M^3V. Empirical results demonstrate that our methods are competitive, often achieving better results than state-of-the-art estimators.

Deep generative models (DGMs) are effective on learning multilayered representations of complex data and performing inference of input data by exploring the generative ability. However, little work has been done on examining or empowering the discriminative ability of DGMs on making accurate predictions. This paper presents max-margin deep generative models (mmDGMs), which explore the strongly discriminative principle of max-margin learning to improve the discriminative power of DGMs, while retaining the generative capability. We develop an efficient doubly stochastic subgradient algorithm for the piecewise linear objective. Empirical results on MNIST and SVHN datasets demonstrate that (1) max-margin learning can significantly improve the prediction performance of DGMs and meanwhile retain the generative ability; and (2) mmDGMs are competitive to the state-of-the-art fully discriminative networks by employing deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as both recognition and generative models.

We take a new look at parameter estimation for Gaussian Mixture Model (GMMs). Specifically, we advance Riemannian manifold optimization (on the manifold of positive definite matrices) as a potential replacement for Expectation Maximization (EM), which has been the de facto standard for decades. An out-of-the-box invocation of Riemannian optimization, however, fails spectacularly: it obtains the same solution as EM, but vastly slower. Building on intuition from geometric convexity, we propose a simple reformulation that has remarkable consequences: it makes Riemannian optimization not only match EM (a nontrivial result on its own, given the poor record nonlinear programming has had against EM), but also outperform it in many settings. To bring our ideas to fruition, we develop a well-tuned Riemannian LBFGS method that proves superior to known competing methods (e.g., Riemannian conjugate gradient). We hope that our results encourage a wider consideration of manifold optimization in machine learning and statistics.

The completion of low rank matrices from few entries is a task with many practical applications. We consider here two aspects of this problem: detectability, i.e. the ability to estimate the rank $r$ reliably from the fewest possible random entries, and performance in achieving small reconstruction error. We propose a spectral algorithm for these two tasks called MaCBetH (for Matrix Completion with the Bethe Hessian). The rank is estimated as the number of negative eigenvalues of the Bethe Hessian matrix, and the corresponding eigenvectors are used as initial condition for the minimization of the discrepancy between the estimated matrix and the revealed entries. We analyze the performance in a random matrix setting using results from the statistical mechanics of the Hopfield neural network, and show in particular that MaCBetH efficiently detects the rank $r$ of a large $n\times m$ matrix from $C(r)r\sqrt{nm}$ entries, where $C(r)$ is a constant close to $1$. We also evaluate the corresponding root-mean-square error empirically and show that MaCBetH compares favorably to other existing approaches.

Most recent results in matrix completion assume that the matrix under consideration is low-rank or that the columns are in a union of low-rank subspaces. In real-world settings, however, the linear structure underlying these models is distorted by a (typically unknown) nonlinear transformation. This paper addresses the challenge of matrix completion in the face of such nonlinearities. Given a few observations of a matrix that are obtained by applying a Lipschitz, monotonic function to a low rank matrix, our task is to estimate the remaining unobserved entries. We propose a novel matrix completion method that alternates between low-rank matrix estimation and monotonic function estimation to estimate the missing matrix elements. Mean squared error bounds provide insight into how well the matrix can be estimated based on the size, rank of the matrix and properties of the nonlinear transformation. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the competitiveness of the proposed approach.

Gaussian process (GP) models form a core part of probabilistic machine learning. Considerable research effort has been made into attacking three issues with GP models: how to compute efficiently when the number of data is large; how to approximate the posterior when the likelihood is not Gaussian and how to estimate covariance function parameter posteriors. This paper simultaneously addresses these, using a variational approximation to the posterior which is sparse in sup- port of the function but otherwise free-form. The result is a Hybrid Monte-Carlo sampling scheme which allows for a non-Gaussian approximation over the function values and covariance parameters simultaneously, with efficient computations based on inducing-point sparse GPs.

Detecting the emergence of an abrupt change-point is a classic problem in statistics and machine learning. Kernel-based nonparametric statistics have been proposed for this task which make fewer assumptions on the distributions than traditional parametric approach. However, none of the existing kernel statistics has provided a computationally efficient way to characterize the extremal behavior of the statistic. Such characterization is crucial for setting the detection threshold, to control the significance level in the offline case as well as the average run length in the online case. In this paper we propose two related computationally efficient M-statistics for kernel-based change-point detection when the amount of background data is large. A novel theoretical result of the paper is the characterization of the tail probability of these statistics using a new technique based on change-of-measure. Such characterization provides us accurate detection thresholds for both offline and online cases in computationally efficient manner, without the need to resort to the more expensive simulations such as bootstrapping. We show that our methods perform well in both synthetic and real world data.

We consider the problem of finding M best diverse solutions of energy minimization problems for graphical models. Contrary to the sequential method of Batra et al., which greedily finds one solution after another, we infer all $M$ solutions jointly. It was shown recently that such jointly inferred labelings not only have smaller total energy but also qualitatively outperform the sequentially obtained ones. The only obstacle for using this new technique is the complexity of the corresponding inference problem, since it is considerably slower algorithm than the method of Batra et al. In this work we show that the joint inference of $M$ best diverse solutions can be formulated as a submodular energy minimization if the original MAP-inference problem is submodular, hence fast inference techniques can be used. In addition to the theoretical results we provide practical algorithms that outperform the current state-of-the art and can be used in both submodular and non-submodular case.

Abstract We propose a family of non-uniform sampling strategies to provably speed up a class of stochastic optimization algorithms with linear convergence including Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient (SVRG) and Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent (SDCA). For a large family of penalized empirical risk minimization problems, our methods exploit data dependent local smoothness of the loss functions near the optimum, while maintaining convergence guarantees. Our bounds are the first to quantify the advantage gained from local smoothness which are significant for some problems significantly better. Empirically, we provide thorough numerical results to back up our theory. Additionally we present algorithms exploiting local smoothness in more aggressive ways, which perform even better in practice.

We introduce local expectation gradients which is a general purpose stochastic variational inference algorithm for constructing stochastic gradients by sampling from the variational distribution. This algorithm divides the problem of estimating the stochastic gradients over multiple variational parameters into smaller sub-tasks so that each sub-task explores intelligently the most relevant part of the variational distribution. This is achieved by performing an exact expectation over the single random variable that most correlates with the variational parameter of interest resulting in a Rao-Blackwellized estimate that has low variance. Our method works efficiently for both continuous and discrete random variables. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm has interesting similarities with Gibbs sampling but at the same time, unlike Gibbs sampling, can be trivially parallelized.

We focus on the discovery and identification of direct causes and effects of a target variable in a causal network. State-of-the-art algorithms generally need to find the global causal structures in the form of complete partial directed acyclic graphs in order to identify the direct causes and effects of a target variable. While these algorithms are effective, it is often unnecessary and wasteful to find the global structures when we are only interested in one target variable (such as class labels). We propose a new local causal discovery algorithm, called Causal Markov Blanket (CMB), to identify the direct causes and effects of a target variable based on Markov Blanket Discovery. CMB is designed to conduct causal discovery among multiple variables, but focuses only on finding causal relationships between a specific target variable and other variables. Under standard assumptions, we show both theoretically and experimentally that the proposed local causal discovery algorithm can obtain the comparable identification accuracy as global methods but significantly improve their efficiency, often by more than one order of magnitude.

We study an idealised sequential resource allocation problem. In each time step the learner chooses an allocation of several resource types between a number of tasks. Assigning more resources to a task increases the probability that it is completed. The problem is challenging because the alignment of the tasks to the resource types is unknown and the feedback is noisy. Our main contribution is the new setting and an algorithm with nearly-optimal regret analysis. Along the way we draw connections to the problem of minimising regret for stochastic linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise. We also present some new results for stochastic linear bandits on the hypercube that significantly out-performs existing work, especially in the sparse case.

Symmetry breaking is a technique for speeding up propositional satisfiability testing by adding constraints to the theory that restrict the search space while preserving satisfiability. In this work, we extend symmetry breaking to the problem of model finding in weighted and unweighted relational theories, a class of problems that includes MAP inference in Markov Logic and similar statistical-relational languages. We introduce term symmetries, which are induced by an evidence set and extend to symmetries over a relational theory. We provide the important special case of term equivalent symmetries, showing that such symmetries can be found in low-degree polynomial time. We show how to break an exponential number of these symmetries with added constraints whose number is linear in the size of the domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques through experiments in two relational domains. We also discuss the connections between relational symmetry breaking and work on lifted inference in statistical-relational reasoning.

Lifted inference rules exploit symmetries for fast reasoning in statistical rela-tional models. Computational complexity of these rules is highly dependent onthe choice of the constraint language they operate on and therefore coming upwith the right kind of representation is critical to the success of lifted inference.In this paper, we propose a new constraint language, called setineq, which allowssubset, equality and inequality constraints, to represent substitutions over the vari-ables in the theory. Our constraint formulation is strictly more expressive thanexisting representations, yet easy to operate on. We reformulate the three mainlifting rules: decomposer, generalized binomial and the recently proposed singleoccurrence for MAP inference, to work with our constraint representation. Exper-iments on benchmark MLNs for exact and sampling based inference demonstratethe effectiveness of our approach over several other existing techniques.

In this work we aim at extending theoretical foundations of lifelong learning. Previous work analyzing this scenario is based on the assumption that the tasks are sampled i.i.d. from a task environment or limited to strongly constrained data distributions. Instead we study two scenarios when lifelong learning is possible, even though the observed tasks do not form an i.i.d. sample: first, when they are sampled from the same environment, but possibly with dependencies, and second, when the task environment is allowed to change over time. In the first case we prove a PAC-Bayesian theorem, which can be seen as a direct generalization of the analogous previous result for the i.i.d. case. For the second scenario we propose to learn an inductive bias in form of a transfer procedure. We present a generalization bound and show on a toy example how it can be used to identify a beneficial transfer algorithm.

Learning to predict multi-label outputs is challenging, but in many problems there is a natural metric on the outputs that can be used to improve predictions. In this paper we develop a loss function for multi-label learning, based on the Wasserstein distance. The Wasserstein distance provides a natural notion of dissimilarity for probability measures. Although optimizing with respect to the exact Wasserstein distance is costly, recent work has described a regularized approximation that is efficiently computed. We describe an efficient learning algorithm based on this regularization, as well as a novel extension of the Wasserstein distance from probability measures to unnormalized measures. We also describe a statistical learning bound for the loss. The Wasserstein loss can encourage smoothness of the predictions with respect to a chosen metric on the output space. We demonstrate this property on a real-data tag prediction problem, using the Yahoo Flickr Creative Commons dataset, outperforming a baseline that doesn't use the metric.