ICML 2026 论文列表

AI-based weather forecasting now rivals traditional physics-based ensembles, but state-of-the-art (SOTA) models rely on specialized architectures and massive computational budgets, creating a high barrier to entry. We demonstrate that such complexity is unnecessary for frontier performance. We introduce U-Cast, a probabilistic forecaster built on a standard U-Net backbone trained with a simple recipe: deterministic pre-training on Mean Absolute Error followed by short probabilistic fine-tuning on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) using Monte Carlo Dropout for stochasticity. As a result, our model matches or exceeds the probabilistic skill of GenCast and IFS ENS at $1.5^\circ$ resolution while reducing training compute by over $10\times$ compared to leading CRPS-based models and inference latency by over $10\times$ compared to diffusion-based models. U-Cast trains in under 12 H200 GPU-days and generates a 15-day ensemble forecast in 3 seconds. These results suggest that scalable, general-purpose architectures paired with efficient training curricula can match complex domain-specific designs at a fraction of the cost, opening the training of frontier probabilistic weather models to the broader community.

Randomized experiments (or A/B tests) are widely used to evaluate interventions in dynamic systems such as recommendation platforms, marketplaces, and digital health. In these settings, interventions affect both current and future system states, so estimating the global average treatment effect (GATE) requires accounting for temporal dynamics, which is especially challenging in the presence of nonstationarity; existing approaches suffer from high bias, high variance, or both. In this paper, we address this challenge via the novel Truncated Policy Gradient (TPG) estimator, which replaces instantaneous outcomes with short-horizon outcome trajectories. The estimator admits a policy gradient interpretation: it is a truncation of the first-order approximation to the GATE, yielding provable reductions in bias and variance in nonstationary Markovian settings. We further establish a central limit theorem for the TPG estimator and develop a consistent variance estimator that remains valid under nonstationarity with single-trajectory data. We validate our theory with two real-world case studies. The results show that relative to existing approaches, a well-calibrated TPG estimator can achieve a favorable balance between bias and variance in nonstationary settings, highlighting the value of the policy-gradient perspective for designing effective estimators under complex dynamics.

Long-context Large Language Models (LLMs) enable powerful applications but incur high memory costs due to the key-value states (KV-Cache). Recent studies attempt to share KV-Cache across layers, but these approaches either require expensive pretraining or rely on per-token cross-layer cosine similarity that is often limited in practice. We show, via Centered Kernel Alignment (CKA), that the dominant singular vectors of KV-Cache are well aligned across layers. Motivated by this observation, we propose xKV, a post-training compression method that jointly factorizes grouped-layer KV-Cache into a shared low-rank subspace, substantially reducing KV-Cache memory. Across widely used LLMs, xKV achieves up to 8× KV-Cache compression while preserving accuracy on long-context tasks and in multi-turn settings. To further improve efficiency, we introduce Selective Reconstruction (SR) at decode time. Combined with SR, xKV achieves up to 4.23× end-to-end speedup over the full attention baseline, and surpasses notable baselines with 30% higher throughput under a similar accuracy level. Overall, xKV provides a plug-and-play approach to reduce both memory and latency for long-context LLM inference. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/abdelfattah-lab/xKV.

Accurately predicting the future trajectories of traffic participants is critical for safe, efficient, and human-friendly autonomous driving. Existing learning-based trajectory prediction methods are predominantly time-domain and insufficiently exploit latent frequency information, which limits their capability to capture low-frequency long-term dependencies and high-frequency short-term dynamics. To address this, we propose TF-FACE, a time-frequency learning framework via frequency-domain adaptive and controllable enhancement. TF-FACE introduces a fusion encoder with learnable gated frequency-domain attention that adaptively manipulates band-specific features for trajectory prediction. Building on the fused representation, we design a dual-stage decoder and a band-specific time–frequency dual-consistency loss to enable controllable decoupling and coupling across long- and short-term temporal scales, global and local scales, and then generate final multimodal predictions. Experiments on Argoverse 1 demonstrate that TF-FACE achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, while maintaining real-time inference for autonomous driving. Additional experiments are conducted on Argoverse 2, further validating TF-FACE's performance and generalizability.

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled Bayesian framework for uncertainty estimation, but their computational complexity severely limits scalability to large datasets. We propose SIKA-GP, which accelerates GP inference using sparse inducing kernel approximations based on a dyadic ordered template basis, incurring only ${O}(\log M)$ complexity dependence on the number of inducing points. Our approach constructs compact and expressive kernel representations from sparsely activated bases, enabling efficient tensorized GPU computation and seamless integration with modern large-scale models. SIKA-GP can be naturally embedded into Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with sparse activations, yielding significant speedups in both training and inference without sacrificing predictive performance. The method naturally extends to deep feature learning, addressing the scalability challenges introduced by deep architectures and high-dimensional feature representations. Empirical results on vision and transformer-based language benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently delivers fast and accurate GP models, providing a principled path toward scalable kernel learning.

Graphs with heterophily, where adjacent nodes carry different labels, are prevalent in real-world applications, from social networks to molecular interactions. However, existing spectral Graph Neural Network (GNN) approaches tailored for heterophilous graph classification suffer from hub-dominated (node with large degree) aggregation and oversmoothing, as their suboptimal polynomial filters introduce approximation errors and blend distant signals. To address the degree-biased aggregation and suboptimal polynomial filtering, we introduce a Hierarchical Multi‐view HAAR (HMH), a novel spectral graph‐learning framework that scales in near‑linear time. HMH first learns feature- and structure-aware \emph{signed} affinities via a heterophily-aware encoder, then constructs a soft graph hierarchy guided by these embeddings. At each hierarchical level, HMH constructs a sparse, orthonormal, and locality-aware Haar basis to apply learnable spectral filters in the frequency domain. Finally, skip-connection unpooling layers combine outputs from all hierarchical levels back into the original graph, effectively preventing hub domination and long-range signal bottleneck (over-squashing). Experimentation shows that HMH outperforms state‑of‑the‑art spectral baselines, achieving up to a 3 \% improvement on node classification and 7 \% on graph classification datasets, all while maintaining linear scalability. Our code is available at https://github.com/sazzad1008/Scalable-HMH101

Image editing has achieved impressive results with the development of large-scale generative models. However, existing models mainly focus on the editing effects of intended objects and regions, often leading to unwanted changes in unintended regions. We present a post-training framework for $\textbf{Co}$ntent-$\textbf{Co}$nsistent $\textbf{Edit}$ing ($\textbf{CoCoEdit}$) by using region regularized reinforcement learning. We first augment existing editing datasets with refined instructions and masks, from which 40K diverse and high quality samples are curated as training set. We introduce a pixel-level similarity reward that complements MLLM-based rewards, enabling models to ensure both editing quality and content consistency during the editing process. To overcome the spatial-agnostic nature of the rewards, we propose a region-based regularizer, aiming to preserve non-edited regions for high-reward samples while encouraging editing effects for low-reward samples. For evaluation, we annotate editing masks for GEdit-Bench and ImgEdit-Bench, introducing pixel-level similarity metrics to measure content consistency and editing quality. Applying CoCoEdit to Qwen-Image-Edit and FLUX-Kontext, we achieve not only superior editing scores to state-of-the-art models, but also significantly better content consistency, measured by PSNR/SSIM metrics and human subjective ratings. Codes, data and models of CoCoEdit can be found at https://github.com/langmanbusi/CoCoEdit.

Time-series forecasting is critical in various scenarios, such as energy, transportation, and public health. However, most existing forecasters rely primarily on one-way inference, \textit{i.e.}, mapping \textbf{history} to \textbf{target}, and overlook the structural information provided by a revised natural chain (``\textbf{history} (model input) -- \textbf{target} (ground-truth output) -- \textbf{post-target continuation}''). The post-target continuation records how trajectories evolve after the target, which can help stabilize forecasting, but it is not observable at inference time. In this work, we aim to obtain an approximate proxy of the post-target continuation for the current input, providing structural knowledge for bidirectional forecasting. This idea is instantiated as KUP-BI (Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration), a new time-series modeling paradigm that distills continuation-style knowledge (as an approximate post-target continuation proxy) from a \emph{train-only} historical library and integrates it into standard forecasting backbones. The input stream and the continuation-proxy stream are fused via a lightweight feature-level gating module. This design does not introduce information beyond what is already contained in the training trajectories; instead, it provides a structured inductive bias that helps backbones exploit typical continuation patterns rather than relying solely on parametric extrapolation. Experimental results on six public datasets show that KUP-BI consistently improves the forecasting performance of state-of-the-art models, with small additional overhead.

Current LLM evaluations often conflate benchmark performance with intrinsic model capability. This is misleading, as observed outcomes arise from the entire evaluation system, including datasets, prompting methods, decoding parameters, and the software–hardware stack, rather than the model alone. When this system is under-specified, attribution becomes unreliable; in practice, evaluation choices alone can induce accuracy swings of up to 70%. This challenge is compounded by the open-ended nature of LLM evaluation, where questions span languages, domains, and usage styles, forming variable and implicitly shifting datasets. Consequently, strong performance on static benchmarks may reflect surface alignment or dataset-induced effects rather than robust capability. Prior studies often focus on individual components or manually-curated small-scale dataset variants, overlooking interactions and dataset-related confounding. To address these limitations, we propose LLM evaluatology, a principled framework that grounds LLM evaluation in a causally motivated system design. It combines structured causal modeling as an intervention-oriented lens with factorial decomposition under design of experiments, quantifying main and interaction effects while using instance-level interventions to probe dataset-induced effects. By jointly modeling evaluation components and structured question variations, LLM evaluatology enables more interpretable, reproducible, and carefully attributed assessment of model capability. Our framework is publicly available at [GitHub](https://github.com/BenchCouncil/llm-evaluatology).

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) interpret neural network representations by decomposing activations into sparse combinations of dictionary atoms. However, SAEs assume features combine additively through linear reconstruction, an assumption that cannot capture compositional structure: linear models cannot distinguish whether ''Starbucks'' arises from the composition of ''star'' and ''coffee'' features or merely their co-occurrence. This forces SAEs to allocate monolithic features for compound concepts rather than decomposing them into interpretable constituents. We introduce PolySAE, which extends the SAE decoder with higher-order terms to model feature interactions while preserving the linear encoder essential for interpretability. Through low-rank tensor factorization on a shared projection subspace, PolySAE captures pairwise and triple feature interactions with small parameter overhead (3\% on GPT2). Across four language models and three SAE variants, PolySAE achieves an average improvement of $\sim$8\% in probing F1 while maintaining comparable reconstruction error, and produces 2--10$\times$ larger Wasserstein distances between class-conditional feature distributions. Critically, learned interaction weights exhibit negligible correlation with co-occurrence frequency ($r = 0.06$ vs $r = 0.82$ for SAE feature covariance), suggesting that polynomial terms capture compositional structure largely independent of surface statistics. Finally, the learned interaction directions causally steer model outputs toward the corresponding compositional semantics.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) learns effective policies from pre-collected datasets, offering a practical solution for applications where online interactions are risky or costly. Model-based approaches are particularly advantageous for offline RL, owing to their data efficiency and generalizability. However, due to inherent model errors, model-based methods often artificially introduce conservatism guided by heuristic uncertainty estimation, which can be unreliable. In this paper, we introduce VIPO, a novel model-based offline RL algorithm that incorporates self-supervised feedback from value estimation to enhance model training. Specifically, the model is learned by additionally minimizing the inconsistency between the value learned directly from the offline data and the value estimated from the model. We perform comprehensive evaluations from multiple perspectives to show that VIPO can learn a highly accurate model efficiently and consistently outperform existing methods. In particular, it achieves state-of-the-art performance on almost all tasks in both D4RL and NeoRL benchmarks. Overall, VIPO offers a \textit{general framework} that can be readily integrated into existing model-based offline RL algorithms to systematically enhance model accuracy. Our code is available at~\url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/vipo2025-8FD4}.

When gradient information is unavailable, black-box optimization (BBO) methods provide a practical alternative. While Evolution Strategies (ES), Consensus-Based Optimization (CBO), Optimization via Integration (OVI), and related methods have each been studied independently, their connections remain underexplored. We unify these approaches within a common theoretical framework, revealing that they differ primarily in two design choices: fitness aggregation (controlling sharpness preference) and consensus scope (controlling modality). Leveraging these insights, we introduce hybrid optimizers that interpolate between existing methods. Our ES-OVI hybrid allows explicit control over the preference for flat minima, enabling a trade-off between performance and robustness in continuous control tasks. Our CBO-OVI hybrids combine the higher-dimensional efficiency of parametric methods with the multimodal capabilities of particle-based approaches, achieving competitive results on language model merging under limited evaluation budgets. We validate our methods on standard BBO benchmarks and higher-dimensional locomotion tasks, demonstrating that the hybrid methods can outperform their constituent algorithms.

While InfoNCE underlies modern contrastive learning, its geometric mechanisms remain under-characterized beyond the canonical alignment--uniformity decomposition. We develop a measure-theoretic framework in which representation measures evolve on a fixed embedding manifold. In the large-batch limit, we prove value and gradient consistency, linking the stochastic objective to explicit deterministic energy landscapes and revealing a geometric bifurcation between unimodal and symmetric multimodal regimes. In the unimodal case, the intrinsic energy is strictly convex and admits a unique Gibbs equilibrium, showing that entropy acts as a tie-breaker within the aligned basin. In the multimodal case, the intrinsic geometry becomes cross-coupled and contains a persistent negative symmetric divergence term: each modality's marginal reshapes the effective landscape of the other, allowing strong pairwise alignment to coexist with a persistent modality gap. Controlled synthetic experiments and analyses of pretrained CLIP representations support these predictions. Overall, our results shift the analytical lens from pointwise discrimination to population geometry, showing that pairwise alignment alone is insufficient to control cross-modal marginal structure.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) support arbitrary-order generation, yet their inference performance critically depends on the unmasking order. Existing strategies rely on heuristics that greedily optimize local confidence, offering limited guidance for identifying unmasking paths that are globally consistent and accurate. To bridge this gap, we introduce path log-likelihood (Path LL), a trajectory-conditioned objective that strongly correlates with downstream accuracy and enables principled selection of unmasking paths. To optimize Path LL at inference time, we propose POKE, an efficient value estimator that predicts the expected future Path LL of a partial decoding trajectory. We then integrate this lookahead signal into POKE-SMC, a Sequential Monte Carlo-based search framework for dynamically identifying optimal unmasking paths. Extensive experiments across 6 reasoning tasks show that POKE-SMC consistently improves accuracy, achieving 2\%--3\% average gains over strong decoding-time scaling baselines at comparable inference overhead on LLaDA models and advancing the accuracy--compute Pareto frontier.

Standard contrastive learning minimizes geometric distance between positive pairs, implicitly assuming that strict compactness optimizes discrimination. However, this topology-agnostic confusion neglects intrinsic data structures and topological complexity, leading to class confusion—particularly when aggressive augmentations induce semantic drift. To address this, we propose Topology-Aware Contrastive Learning, a framework that shifts the objective from geometric singularity to topological connectivity. Leveraging Persistent Homology, we explicitly regulate the connectivity of the latent space, ensuring positive pairs maintain an $\alpha\text{--}\beta$ connectivity that balances intra-class cohesion with separability. Theoretically, we formally define the topology-agnostic confusion phenomenon, prove that excessive compactness strictly lower-bounds the probability of confusion and derive a generalization bound demonstrating that richer topological connectivity tightens downstream risk. Furthermore, we establish a measure-theoretic framework to mitigating the sensitivity of our method against varying augmentation strengths. Empirical results on benchmarks confirm that our approach enhances representation quality and reduces reliance on specific augmentation strategies compared to standard baselines.

The target network update frequency (TUF) is a central stabilization mechanism in (deep) Q-learning. However, its selection remains poorly understood and is often treated merely as another tunable hyperparameter rather than as a principled design decision. This work provides a theoretical analysis of target fixing in tabular Q-learning through the lens of approximate dynamic programming. We view periodic Q-learning as a nested optimization scheme in which each outer iteration applies an inexact Bellman optimality operator, approximated by a generic inner loop optimizer. Rigorous theory yields a finite-time convergence analysis for the asynchronous sampling setting, specializing to stochastic gradient descent in the inner loop. Our results deliver an explicit characterization of the bias–variance trade-off induced by the target update period, showing how to optimally set this critical hyperparameter. We prove that constant target update schedules are suboptimal, incurring a logarithmic overhead in sample complexity that is entirely avoidable with adaptive schedules. Our analysis shows that the optimal target update frequency decreases geometrically over the course of the learning process.

Diffusion models learn a time-indexed score field $\mathbf{s}_\theta(\mathbf{x}_t,t)$ that often inherits approximate equivariances (flips, rotations, circular shifts) from in-distribution (ID) data and convolutional backbones. Most diffusion-based out-of-distribution (OOD) detectors exploit score magnitude or local geometry (energies, curvature, covariance spectra) and largely ignore equivariances. We introduce Group-Equivariant Posterior Consistency (GEPC), a training-free probe that measures how consistently the learned score transforms under a finite group $G$, detecting equivariance breaking even when score magnitude remains unchanged. At the population level, we propose the ideal GEPC residual which averages an equivariance-residual functional over $G$, and we derive ID upper bounds and OOD lower bounds under mild assumptions. GEPC requires only score evaluations and produces interpretable equivariance-breaking maps. On OOD image benchmark datasets, we show that GEPC achieves competitive or improved AUROC compared to recent diffusion-based baselines while remaining computationally lightweight. On high-resolution synthetic aperture radar imagery where OOD corresponds to targets or anomalies in clutter, GEPC yields strong target-background separation and visually interpretable equivariance-breaking maps. The official implementation is available at https://github.com/RouzAY/gepc-diffusion/.

We identify and analyze a surprising phenomenon of $\textit{Latent}$ Diffusion Models (LDMs) where the final steps of the diffusion can $\textit{degrade}$ sample quality. In contrast to conventional arguments that justify early stopping for numerical stability, this phenomenon is intrinsic to the dimensionality reduction in LDMs. We provide a principled explanation by analyzing the interaction between latent dimension and stopping time. Under a Gaussian framework with linear autoencoders, we characterize the conditions under which early stopping is needed to minimize the distance between generated and target distributions. More precisely, we show that lower-dimensional representations benefit from earlier termination, whereas higher-dimensional latent spaces require later stopping time. We further establish that the latent dimension interplays with other hyperparameters of the problem such as constraints in the parameters of score matching. Crucially, this framework suggests that the reconstruction quality of the autoencoder alone can serve as a proxy to estimate the potential performance of the full LDM. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets illustrate these properties, underlining that early stopping can improve generative quality. Together, our results offer a theoretical foundation for understanding how the latent dimension influences the sample quality, and highlight stopping time as a key hyperparameter in LDMs.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit a wide range of capabilities, including mathematical reasoning, code generation, and linguistic behaviors. We show that Transformer architectures contain small subsets of attention heads that are necessary for certain capabilities. Zeroing out as few as five task-specific heads can degrade performance by up to $60\\%$ on standard benchmarks measuring the capability of interest, while largely preserving performance on unrelated tasks. We introduce a compressed sensing-based method that exploits the sparsity of these heads to identify them via strategic knockouts and a small number of model evaluations. We validate these findings across Llama and Qwen models ranging from 1B to 14B parameters and a diverse set of capabilities including mathematical abilities and code generation, revealing a modular organization in which specialized capabilities are dependent on sparse, functionally distinct components. Overall, our results suggest that capability localization is a general organizational principle of Transformer language models, with implications for interpretability, model editing, and AI safety. Code is released at https://github.com/locuslab/llm-components.