ICML 2025 论文列表

Multilayer matrix factorization (MMF) has recently emerged as a generalized model of, and potentially a more expressive approach than, the classic matrix factorization. This paper considers MMF under a probabilistic formulation, and our focus is on inference methods under variational inference. The challenge in this context lies in determining a variational process that leads to a computationally efficient and accurate approximation of the maximum likelihood inference. One well-known example is the variational autoencoder (VAE), which uses neural networks for the variational process. In this work, we take insight from variational diffusion models in the context of generative models to develop variational inference for MMF. We propose a dimension-reducing diffusion process that results in a new way to interact with the layered structures of the MMF model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed diffusion variational inference method leads to improved performance scores compared to several existing methods, including the VAE.

Consistency Training (CT) has recently emerged as a strong alternative to diffusion models for image generation. However, non-distillation CT often suffers from high variance and instability, motivating ongoing research into its training dynamics. We propose Variational Consistency Training (VCT), a flexible and effective framework compatible with various forward kernels, including those in flow matching. Its key innovation is a learned noise-data coupling scheme inspired by Variational Autoencoders, where a data-dependent encoder models noise emission. This enables VCT to adaptively learn noise-to-data pairings, reducing training variance relative to the fixed, unsorted pairings in classical CT. Experiments on multiple image datasets demonstrate significant improvements: our method surpasses baselines, achieves state-of-the-art FID among non-distillation CT approaches on CIFAR-10, and matches SoTA performance on ImageNet 64x64 with only two sampling steps. Code is available at https://github.com/sony/vct.

This study considers multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) through the information gain of the Pareto-frontier. To calculate the information gain, a predictive distribution conditioned on the Pareto-frontier plays a key role, which is defined as a distribution truncated by the Pareto-frontier. However, it is usually impossible to obtain the entire Pareto-frontier in a continuous domain, and therefore, the complete truncation cannot be known. We consider an approximation of the truncated distribution by using a mixture distribution consisting of two possible approximate truncations obtainable from a subset of the Pareto-frontier, which we call over- and under-truncation. Since the optimal balance of the mixture is unknown beforehand, we propose optimizing the balancing coefficient through the variational lower bound maximization framework, by which the approximation error of the information gain can be minimized. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method particularly when the number of objective functions is large.

Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting (PTSF) plays a crucial role in decision-making across various fields, including economics, energy, and transportation. Most existing methods excell at short-term forecasting, while overlooking the hurdles of Long-term Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting (LPTSF). As the forecast horizon extends, the inherent nonlinear dynamics have a significant adverse effect on prediction accuracy, and make generative models inefficient by increasing the cost of each iteration. To overcome these limitations, we introduce $K^2$VAE, an efficient VAE-based generative model that leverages a KoopmanNet to transform nonlinear time series into a linear dynamical system, and devises a KalmanNet to refine predictions and model uncertainty in such linear system, which reduces error accumulation in long-term forecasting. Extensive experiments demonstrate that $K^2$VAE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both short- and long-term PTSF, providing a more efficient and accurate solution.

Various data modalities are common in real-world applications. (e.g., EHR, medical images and clinical notes in healthcare). Thus, it is essential to develop multimodal learning methods to aggregate information from multiple modalities. The main challenge is appropriately aligning and fusing the representations of different modalities into a joint distribution. Existing methods mainly rely on concatenation or the Kronecker product, oversimplifying interactions structure between modalities and indicating a need to model more complex interactions. Additionally, the joint distribution of latent representations with higher-order interactions is underexplored. Copula is a powerful statistical structure in modelling the interactions between variables, as it bridges the joint distribution and marginal distributions of multiple variables. In this paper, we propose a novel copula modelling-driven multimodal learning framework, which focuses on learning the joint distribution of various modalities to capture the complex interaction among them. The key idea is interpreting the copula model as a tool to align the marginal distributions of the modalities efficiently. By assuming a Gaussian mixture distribution for each modality and a copula model on the joint distribution, our model can also generate accurate representations for missing modalities. Extensive experiments on public MIMIC datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our model over other competitors. The code is anonymously available at https://github.com/HKU-MedAI/CMCM.

Simulation modeling offers a flexible approach to constructing high-fidelity synthetic representations of complex real-world systems. However, the increased complexity of such models introduces additional complications, for example when carrying out statistical inference procedures. This has motivated a large and growing literature on *likelihood-free* or *simulation-based* inference methods, which approximate (e.g., Bayesian) inference without assuming access to the simulator's intractable likelihood function. A hitherto neglected problem in the simulation-based Bayesian inference literature is the challenge of constructing minimally informative *reference priors* for complex simulation models. Such priors maximise an expected Kullback-Leibler distance from the prior to the posterior, thereby influencing posterior inferences minimally and enabling an ``objective'' approach to Bayesian inference that does not necessitate the incorporation of strong subjective prior beliefs. In this paper, we propose and test a selection of likelihood-free methods for learning reference priors for simulation models, using variational approximations to these priors and a variety of mutual information estimators. Our experiments demonstrate that good approximations to reference priors for simulation models are in this way attainable, providing a first step towards the development of likelihood-free objective Bayesian inference procedures.

We propose a novel method for simulating conditioned diffusion processes (diffusion bridges) in Euclidean spaces. By training a neural network to approximate bridge dynamics, our approach eliminates the need for computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods or reverse-process modeling. Compared to existing methods, it offers greater robustness across various diffusion specifications and conditioning scenarios. This applies in particular to rare events and multimodal distributions, which pose challenges for score-learning- and MCMC-based approaches. We propose a flexible variational family for approximating the diffusion bridge path measure which is partially specified by a neural network. Once trained, it enables efficient independent sampling at a cost comparable to sampling the unconditioned (forward) process.