ICML 2025 论文列表

Density ratio estimation in high dimensions can be reframed as integrating a certain quantity, the time score, over probability paths which interpolate between the two densities. In practice, the time score has to be estimated based on samples from the two densities. However, existing methods for this problem remain computationally expensive and can yield inaccurate estimates. Inspired by recent advances in generative modeling, we introduce a novel framework for time score estimation, based on a conditioning variable. Choosing the conditioning variable judiciously enables a closed-form objective function. We demonstrate that, compared to previous approaches, our approach results in faster learning of the time score and competitive or better estimation accuracies of the density ratio on challenging tasks. Furthermore, we establish theoretical guarantees on the error of the estimated density ratio.

Motivated by applications in trajectory inference and particle tracking, we introduce **Smooth Schrödinger Bridges**. Our proposal generalizes prior work by allowing the reference process in the multi-marginal Schrödinger Bridge problem to be a smooth Gaussian process, leading to more regular and interpretable trajectories in applications. Though naïvely smoothing the reference process leads to a computationally intractable problem, we identify a class of processes (including the Matérn processes) for which the resulting Smooth Schrödinger Bridge problem can be *lifted* to a simpler problem on phase space, which can be solved in polynomial time. We develop a practical approximation of this algorithm that outperforms existing methods on numerous simulated and real single-cell RNAseq datasets.

Circular and non-flat data distribution are prevalent across diverse domains of data science, yet their specific geometric structures often remain underutilized in machine learning frameworks. A principled approach to accounting for the underlying geometry of such data is pivotal, particularly when extending statistical models, like the pervasive Gaussian distribution. In this work, we tackle those issue by focusing on the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices, a key focus in information geometry. We introduced a non-isotropic wrapped Gaussian by leveraging the exponential map, we derive theoretical properties of this distribution and propose a maximum likelihood framework for parameter estimation. Furthermore, we reinterpret established classifiers on SPD through a probabilistic lens and introduce new classifiers based on the wrapped Gaussian model. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the robustness and flexibility of this geometry-aware distribution, underscoring its potential to advance manifold-based data analysis. This work lays the groundwork for extending classical machine learning and statistical methods to more complex and structured data.

Optimizing high-dimensional and complex black-box functions is crucial in numerous scientific applications. While Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful method for sample-efficient optimization, it struggles with the curse of dimensionality and scaling to thousands of evaluations. Recently, leveraging generative models to solve black-box optimization problems has emerged as a promising framework. However, those methods often underperform compared to BO methods due to limited expressivity and difficulty of uncertainty estimation in high-dimensional spaces. To overcome these issues, we introduce \textbf{DiBO}, a novel framework for solving high-dimensional black-box optimization problems. Our method iterates two stages. First, we train a diffusion model to capture the data distribution and deep ensembles to predict function values with uncertainty quantification. Second, we cast the candidate selection as a posterior inference problem to balance exploration and exploitation in high-dimensional spaces. Concretely, we fine-tune diffusion models to amortize posterior inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across synthetic and real-world tasks. Our code is publicly available \href{https://github.com/umkiyoung/DiBO}{here}.

We consider the branch-length estimation problem on a bifurcating tree: a character evolves along the edges of a binary tree according to a two-state symmetric Markov process, and we seek to recover the edge transition probabilities from repeated observations at the leaves. This problem arises in phylogenetics, and is related to latent tree graphical model inference. In general, the log-likelihood function is non-concave and may admit many critical points. Nevertheless, simple coordinate maximization has been known to perform well in practice, defying the complexity of the likelihood landscape. In this work, we provide the first theoretical guarantee as to why this might be the case. We show that deep inside the Kesten-Stigum reconstruction regime, provided with polynomially many $m$ samples (assuming the tree is balanced), there exists a universal parameter regime (independent of the size of the tree) where the log-likelihood function is strongly concave and smooth with high probability. On this high-probability likelihood landscape event, we show that the standard coordinate maximization algorithm converges exponentially fast to the maximum likelihood estimator, which is within $O(1/\sqrt{m})$ from the true parameter, provided a sufficiently close initial point.

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the aleatoric-epistemic view being insufficiently expressive to capture all the distinct quantities that researchers are interested in. To address this we present a decision-theoretic perspective that relates rigorous notions of uncertainty, predictive performance and statistical dispersion in data. This serves to support clearer thinking as the field moves forward. Additionally we provide insights into popular information-theoretic quantities, showing they can be poor estimators of what they are often purported to measure, while also explaining how they can still be useful in guiding data acquisition.

Many machine learning models require setting a parameter that controls their size before training, e.g. number of neurons in DNNs, or inducing points in GPs. Increasing capacity typically improves performance until all the information from the dataset is captured. After this point, computational cost keeps increasing, without improved performance. This leads to the question "How big is big enough?" We investigate this problem for Gaussian processes (single-layer neural networks) in continual learning. Here, data becomes available incrementally, and the final dataset size will therefore not be known before training, preventing the use of heuristics for setting a fixed model size. We develop a method to automatically adjust model size while maintaining near-optimal performance. Our experimental procedure follows the constraint that any hyperparameters must be set without seeing dataset properties, and we show that our method performs well across diverse datasets without the need to adjust its hyperparameter, showing it requires less tuning than others.

Transformers have emerged as the dominant architecture in the field of deep learning, with a broad range of applications and remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities. While not yet fully understood, ICL has already proved to be an intriguing phenomenon, allowing transformers to learn in context—without requiring further training. In this paper, we further advance the understanding of ICL by demonstrating that transformers can perform full Bayesian inference for commonly used statistical models in context. More specifically, we introduce a general framework that builds on ideas from prior fitted networks and continuous normalizing flows and enables us to infer complex posterior distributions for models such as generalized linear models and latent factor models. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our ICL approach yields posterior samples that are similar in quality to state-of-the-art MCMC or variational inference methods that do not operate in context. The source code for this paper is available at https://github.com/ArikReuter/ICL_for_Full_Bayesian_Inference

Optimal allocation of scarce resources is a common problem for decision makers faced with choosing a limited number of locations for intervention. Spatiotemporal prediction models could make such decisions data-driven. A recent performance metric called fraction of best possible reach (BPR) measures the impact of using a model’s recommended size K subset of sites compared to the best possible top-K in hindsight. We tackle two open problems related to BPR. First, we explore *how to rank* all sites numerically given a probabilistic model that predicts event counts jointly across sites. Ranking via the per-site mean is suboptimal for BPR. Instead, we offer a better ranking for BPR backed by decision theory. Second, we explore*how to train* a probabilistic model's parameters to maximize BPR. Discrete selection of K sites implies all-zero parameter gradients which prevent standard gradient training. We overcome this barrier via advances in perturbed optimizers. We further suggest a training objective that combines likelihood with a BPR constraint to deliver high-quality top-K rankings as well as good forecasts for all sites. We demonstrate our approach on two where-to-intervene applications: mitigating opioid-related fatal overdoses for public health and monitoring endangered wildlife.

Neural networks capable of accurate, input-conditional uncertainty representation are essential for real-world AI systems. Deep ensembles of Gaussian networks have proven highly effective for continuous regression due to their ability to flexibly represent aleatoric uncertainty via unrestricted heteroscedastic variance, which in turn enables accurate epistemic uncertainty estimation. However, no analogous approach exists for $\textit{count}$ regression, despite many important applications. To address this gap, we propose the Deep Double Poisson Network (DDPN), a novel neural discrete count regression model that outputs the parameters of the Double Poisson distribution, enabling arbitrarily high or low predictive aleatoric uncertainty for count data and improving epistemic uncertainty estimation when ensembled. We formalize and prove that DDPN exhibits robust regression properties similar to heteroscedastic Gaussian models via learnable loss attenuation, and introduce a simple loss modification to control this behavior. Experiments on diverse datasets demonstrate that DDPN outperforms current baselines in accuracy, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection, establishing a new state-of-the-art in deep count regression.

A maximal ancestral graph (MAG) is widely used to characterize the causal relations among observable variables in the presence of latent variables. However, given observational data, only a partial ancestral graph representing a Markov equivalence class (MEC) of MAGs is identifiable, which generally contains uncertain causal relations. Due to the uncertainties, \emph{MAG listing}, \emph{i.e.}, listing all the MAGs in the MEC, is critical for many downstream tasks. In this paper, we present the first \emph{polynomial-delay} MAG listing method, where delay refers to the time for outputting each MAG, through introducing enumerated structural knowledge in the form of \emph{singleton background knowledge (BK)}. To incorporate such knowledge, we propose the \emph{sound} and \emph{locally complete} orientation rules. By recursively introducing singleton BK and applying the rules, our method can output all and only MAGs in the MEC with polynomial delay. Additionally, while the proposed novel rules enable more efficient MAG listing, for the goal of incorporating general BK, we present two counterexamples to imply that existing rules including ours, are not yet \emph{complete}, which motivate two more rules. Experimental results validate the efficiency of the proposed MAG listing method.

Identifying the most representative subset for a close-to-submodular objective while satisfying the predefined partition constraint is a fundamental task with numerous applications in machine learning. However, the existing distorted local-search methods are often hindered by their prohibitive query complexities and the rigid requirement for prior knowledge of difficult-to-obtain structural parameters. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel algorithm titled **Multinoulli-SCG**, which not only is parameter-free, but also can achieve the same approximation guarantees as the distorted local-search methods with significantly fewer function evaluations. The core of our **Multinoulli-SCG** algorithm is an innovative continuous-relaxation framework named Multinoulli Extension(***ME***), which can effectively convert the discrete subset selection problem subject to partition constraints into a solvable continuous maximization focused on learning the optimal multinoulli priors across the considered partition. In sharp contrast with the well-established multi-linear extension for submodular subset selection, a notable advantage of our proposed ***ME*** is its intrinsic capacity to provide a lossless rounding scheme for any set function. Finally, we validate the practical efficacy of our proposed algorithms by applying them to video summarization, bayesian A-optimal design and coverage maximization.

Hierarchical classification offers an approach to incorporate the concept of mistake severity by leveraging a structured, labeled hierarchy. However, decoding in such settings frequently relies on heuristic decision rules, which may not align with task-specific evaluation metrics. In this work, we propose a framework for the optimal decoding of an output probability distribution with respect to a target metric. We derive optimal decision rules for increasingly complex prediction settings, providing universal algorithms when candidates are limited to the set of nodes. In the most general case of predicting a *subset of nodes*, we focus on rules dedicated to the hierarchical $\mathrm{hF}_{\beta}$ scores, tailored to hierarchical settings. To demonstrate the practical utility of our approach, we conduct extensive empirical evaluations, showcasing the superiority of our proposed optimal strategies, particularly in underdetermined scenarios. These results highlight the potential of our methods to enhance the performance and reliability of hierarchical classifiers in real-world applications.

We introduce $\texttt{TimeMCL}$, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit *quantization* objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

We present a conformal inference method for constructing lower prediction bounds for survival times from right-censored data, extending recent approaches designed for more restrictive type-I censoring scenarios. The proposed method imputes unobserved censoring times using a machine learning model, and then analyzes the imputed data using a survival model calibrated via weighted conformal inference. This approach is theoretically supported by an asymptotic double robustness property. Empirical studies on simulated and real data demonstrate that our method leads to relatively informative predictive inferences and is especially robust in challenging settings where the survival model may be inaccurate.

We revisit the problem of distribution learning within the framework of learning-augmented algorithms. In this setting, we explore the scenario where a probability distribution is provided as potentially inaccurate advice on the true, unknown distribution. Our objective is to develop learning algorithms whose sample complexity decreases as the quality of the advice improves, thereby surpassing standard learning lower bounds when the advice is sufficiently accurate. Specifically, we demonstrate that this outcome is achievable for the problem of learning a multivariate Gaussian distribution $N(\mu, \Sigma)$ in the PAC learning setting. Classically, in the advice-free setting, $\widetilde{\Theta}(d^2/\varepsilon^2)$ samples are sufficient and worst case necessary to learn $d$-dimensional Gaussians up to TV distance $\varepsilon$ with constant probability. When we are additionally given a parameter $\widetilde{\Sigma}$ as advice, we show that $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d^{2-\beta}/\varepsilon^2)$ samples suffices whenever $|| \widetilde{\Sigma}^{-1/2} \Sigma \widetilde{\Sigma}^{-1/2} - I_d ||_1 \leq \varepsilon d^{1-\beta}$ (where $||\cdot||_1$ denotes the entrywise $\ell_1$ norm) for any $\beta > 0$, yielding a polynomial improvement over the advice-free setting.