深度学习 · probabilistic methods

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are tractable representations of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. Recent advancements have improved the scalability of PCs either by leveraging their sparse properties or through the use of tensorized operations for better hardware utilization. However, no existing method fully exploits both aspects simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a novel sparse and structured parameterization for the sum blocks in PCs. By replacing dense matrices with sparse Monarch matrices, we significantly reduce the memory and computation costs, enabling unprecedented scaling of PCs. From a theory perspective, our construction arises naturally from circuit multiplication; from a practical perspective, compared to previous efforts on scaling up tractable probabilistic models, our approach not only achieves state-of-the-art generative modeling performance on challenging benchmarks like Text8, LM1B and ImageNet, but also demonstrates superior scaling behavior, achieving the same performance with substantially less compute as measured by the number of floating-point operations (FLOPs) during training.

Conformal prediction is a flexible framework for calibrating machine learning predictions, providing distribution-free statistical guarantees. In outlier detection, this calibration relies on a reference set of labeled inlier data to control the type-I error rate. However, obtaining a perfectly labeled inlier reference set is often unrealistic, and a more practical scenario involves access to a contaminated reference set containing a small fraction of outliers. This paper analyzes the impact of such contamination on the validity of conformal methods. We prove that under realistic, non-adversarial settings, calibration on contaminated data yields conservative type-I error control, shedding light on the inherent robustness of conformal methods. This conservativeness, however, typically results in a loss of power. To alleviate this limitation, we propose a novel, active data-cleaning framework that leverages a limited labeling budget and an outlier detection model to selectively annotate data points in the contaminated reference set that are suspected as outliers. By removing only the annotated outliers in this ``suspicious'' subset, we can effectively enhance power while mitigating the risk of inflating the type-I error rate, as supported by our theoretical analysis. Experiments on real datasets validate the conservative behavior of conformal methods under contamination and show that the proposed data-cleaning strategy improves power without sacrificing validity.

Bayesian phylogenetics is vital for understanding evolutionary dynamics, and requires accurate and efficient approximation of posterior distributions over trees. In this work, we develop a variational Bayesian approach for ultrametric phylogenetic trees. We present a novel variational family based on coalescent times of a single-linkage clustering and derive a closed-form density for the resulting distribution over trees. Unlike existing methods for ultrametric trees, our method performs inference over all of tree space, it does not require any Markov chain Monte Carlo subroutines, and our variational family is differentiable. Through experiments on benchmark genomic datasets and an application to the viral RNA of SARS-CoV-2, we demonstrate that our method achieves competitive accuracy while requiring significantly fewer gradient evaluations than existing state-of-the-art techniques.

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to Z-estimation problems such as inference of means and quantiles. In this paper, we apply ideas of prediction-powered inference to e-values. By doing so, we inherit all the usual benefits of e-values -- such as anytime-validity, post-hoc validity and versatile sequential inference -- as well as greatly expand the set of inferences achievable in a prediction-powered manner. In particular, we show that every inference procedure that can be framed in terms of e-values has a prediction-powered counterpart, given by our method. We showcase the effectiveness of our framework across a wide range of inference tasks, from simple hypothesis testing and confidence intervals to more involved procedures for change-point detection and causal discovery, which were out of reach of previous techniques. Our approach is modular and easily integrable into existing algorithms, making it a compelling choice for practical applications.

Decision making under uncertainty is challenging as the data-generating process (DGP) is often unknown. Bayesian inference proceeds by estimating the DGP through posterior beliefs on the model’s parameters. However, minimising the expected risk under these beliefs can lead to suboptimal decisions due to model uncertainty or limited, noisy observations. To address this, we introduce Distributionally Robust Optimisation with Bayesian Ambiguity Sets (DRO-BAS) which hedges against model uncertainty by optimising the worst-case risk over a posterior-informed ambiguity set. We provide two such sets, based on the posterior expectation (DRO-BAS(PE)) or the posterior predictive (DRO-BAS(PP)) and prove that both admit, under conditions, strong dual formulations leading to efficient single-stage stochastic programs which are solved with a sample average approximation. For DRO-BAS(PE), this covers all conjugate exponential family members while for DRO-BAS(PP) this is shown under conditions on the predictive's moment generating function. Our DRO-BAS formulations outperform existing Bayesian DRO on the Newsvendor problem and achieve faster solve times with comparable robustness on the Portfolio problem.

The Generative Flow Network (GFlowNet) is a probabilistic framework in which an agent learns a stochastic policy and flow functions to sample objects with probability proportional to an unnormalized reward function. GFlowNets share a strong connection with reinforcement learning (RL) that typically aims to maximize reward. A number of recent works explored connections between GFlowNets and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) RL, which incorporates entropy regularization into the standard RL objective. However, the relationship between GFlowNets and standard RL remains largely unexplored, despite the inherent similarities in their sequential decision-making nature. While GFlowNets can discover diverse solutions through specialized flow-matching objectives, connecting them to standard RL can simplify their implementation through well-established RL principles and also improve RL's capabilities in diverse solution discovery (a critical requirement in many real-world applications), and bridging this gap can further unlock the potential of both fields. In this paper, we bridge this gap by revealing a fundamental connection between GFlowNets and one of the most basic components of RL -- policy evaluation. Surprisingly, we find that the value function obtained from evaluating a uniform policy is closely associated with the flow functions in GFlowNets. Building upon these insights, we introduce a rectified random policy evaluation (RPE) algorithm, which achieves the same reward-matching effect as GFlowNets based on simply evaluating a fixed random policy, offering a new perspective. Empirical results across extensive benchmarks demonstrate that RPE achieves competitive results compared to previous approaches, shedding light on the previously overlooked connection between (non-MaxEnt) RL and GFlowNets.

We explore the single-spiked covariance model within the context of sparse principal component analysis (PCA), which aims to recover a sparse unit vector from noisy samples. From an information-theoretic perspective, $O(k \log p)$ observations are sufficient to recover a $k$-sparse $p$-dimensional vector $\mathbf{v}$. However, existing polynomial-time methods require at least $O(k^2)$ samples for successful recovery, highlighting a significant gap in sample efficiency. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel thresholding-based algorithm that requires only $\Omega(k \log p)$ samples, provided the signal strength $\lambda = \Omega(||\mathbf{v}||_\infty^{-1})$. We also propose a two-stage nonconvex algorithm that further enhances estimation performance. This approach integrates our thresholding algorithm with truncated power iteration, achieving the minimax optimal rate of statistical error under the desired sample complexity. Numerical experiments validate the superior performance of our algorithms in terms of estimation accuracy and computational efficiency.

Vovk (2015) introduced cross-conformal prediction, a modification of split conformal designed to improve the width of prediction sets. The method, when trained with a miscoverage rate equal to $\alpha$ and $n \gg K$, ensures a marginal coverage of at least $1 - 2\alpha - 2(1-\alpha)(K-1)/(n+K)$, where $n$ is the number of observations and $K$ denotes the number of folds. A simple modification of the method achieves coverage of at least $1-2\alpha$. In this work, we propose new variants of both methods that yield smaller prediction sets without compromising the latter theoretical guarantees. The proposed methods are based on recent results deriving more statistically efficient combination of p-values that leverage exchangeability and randomization. Simulations confirm the theoretical findings and bring out some important tradeoffs.

The idea of value-aware model learning, that models should produce accurate value estimates, has gained prominence in model-based reinforcement learning. The MuZero loss, which penalizes a model's value function prediction compared to the ground-truth value function, has been utilized in several prominent empirical works in the literature. However, theoretical investigation into its strengths and weaknesses is limited. In this paper, we analyze the family of value-aware model learning losses, which includes the popular MuZero loss. We show that these losses, as normally used, are uncalibrated surrogate losses, which means that they do not always recover the correct model and value function. Building on this insight, we propose corrections to solve this issue. Furthermore, we investigate the interplay between the loss calibration, latent model architectures, and auxiliary losses that are commonly employed when training MuZero-style agents. We show that while deterministic models can be sufficient to predict accurate values, learning calibrated stochastic models is still advantageous.

Marginalization -- summing a function over all assignments to a subset of its inputs -- is a fundamental computational problem with applications from probabilistic inference to formal verification. Despite its computational hardness in general, there exist many classes of functions (e.g., probabilistic models) for which marginalization remains tractable, and they can all be commonly expressed by arithmetic circuits computing multilinear polynomials. This raises the question, can *all* functions with polynomial time marginalization algorithms be succinctly expressed by such circuits? We give a negative answer, exhibiting simple functions with tractable marginalization yet no efficient representation by known models, assuming $\\mathsf{FP} \\neq \\#\\mathsf{P}$ (an assumption implied by $\\mathsf{P} \\neq \\mathsf{NP}$). To this end, we identify a hierarchy of complexity classes corresponding to stronger forms of marginalization, all of which are efficiently computable on the known circuit models. We conclude with a completeness result, showing that whenever there is an efficient real RAM performing virtual evidence marginalization for a function, then there are small arithmetic circuits for that function's multilinear representation.

This paper introduces the Discrete Markov Probabilistic Model (DMPM), a novel algorithm for discrete data generation. The algorithm operates in discrete space, where the noising process is a continuous-time Markov chain that can be sampled exactly via a Poissonian clock that flips labels uniformly at random. The time-reversal process, like the forward noise process, is a jump process, with its intensity governed by a discrete analogue of the classical score function. Crucially, this intensity is proven to be the conditional expectation of a function of the forward process, strengthening its theoretical alignment with score-based generative models while ensuring robustness and efficiency. We further establish convergence bounds for the algorithm under minimal assumptions and demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments on low-dimensional Bernoulli-distributed datasets and high-dimensional binary MNIST data. The results highlight its strong performance in generating discrete structures. This work bridges theoretical foundations and practical applications, advancing the development of effective and theoretically grounded discrete generative modeling.

Probabilistic survival analysis models seek to estimate the distribution of the future occurrence (time) of an event given a set of covariates. In recent years, these models have preferred nonparametric specifications that avoid directly estimating survival distributions via discretization. Specifically, they estimate the probability of an individual event at fixed times or the time of an event at fixed probabilities (quantiles), using supervised learning. Borrowing ideas from the quantile regression literature, we propose a parametric survival analysis method based on the Asymmetric Laplace Distribution (ALD). This distribution allows for closed-form calculation of popular event summaries such as mean, median, mode, variation, and quantiles. The model is optimized by maximum likelihood to learn, at the individual level, the parameters (location, scale, and asymmetry) of the ALD distribution. Extensive results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms parametric and nonparametric approaches in terms of accuracy, discrimination and calibration.

Satisfiability Modulo Counting (SMC) is a recently proposed general language to reason about problems integrating statistical and symbolic Artificial Intelligence. An SMC problem is an extended SAT problem in which the truth values of a few Boolean variables are determined by probabilistic inference. Approximate solvers may return solutions that violate constraints. Directly integrating available SAT solvers and probabilistic inference solvers gives exact solutions but results in slow performance because of many back-and-forth invocations of both solvers. We propose KOCO-SMC, an integrated exact SMC solver that efficiently tracks lower and upper bounds in the probabilistic inference process. It enhances computational efficiency by enabling early estimation of probabilistic inference using only partial variable assignments, whereas existing methods require full variable assignments. In the experiment, we compare KOCO-SMC with currently available approximate and exact SMC solvers on large-scale datasets and real-world applications. The proposed KOCO-SMC finds exact solutions with much less time.

Causal inference is a key research area in machine learning, yet confusion reigns over the tools needed to tackle it. There are prevalent claims in the machine learning literature that you need a bespoke causal framework or notation to answer causal questions. In this paper, we make it clear that you can answer any causal inference question within the realm of probabilistic modelling and inference, without causal-specific tools or notation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate how causal questions can be tackled by writing down the probability of everything. We argue for the advantages of the generality of the probabilistic modelling lens, when compared to bespoke causal frameworks. Lastly, we reinterpret causal tools as emerging from standard probabilistic modelling and inference, elucidating their necessity and utility.

Effective modelling of large-scale spatio-temporal datasets is essential for many domains, yet existing approaches often impose rigid constraints on the input data, such as requiring them to lie on fixed-resolution grids. With the rise of foundation models, the ability to process diverse, heterogeneous data structures is becoming increasingly important. Neural processes (NPs), particularly transformer neural processes (TNPs), offer a promising framework for such tasks, but struggle to scale to large spatio-temporal datasets due to the lack of an efficient attention mechanism. To address this, we introduce gridded pseudo-token TNPs which employ specialised encoders and decoders to handle unstructured data and utilise a processor comprising gridded pseudo-tokens with efficient attention mechanisms. Furthermore, we develop equivariant gridded TNPs for applications where exact or approximate translation equivariance is a useful inductive bias, improving accuracy and training efficiency. Our method consistently outperforms a range of strong baselines in various synthetic and real-world regression tasks involving large-scale data, while maintaining competitive computational efficiency. Experiments with weather data highlight the potential of gridded TNPs and serve as just one example of a domain where they can have a significant impact.

We introduce FedGVI, a probabilistic Federated Learning (FL) framework that is robust to both prior and likelihood misspecification. FedGVI addresses limitations in both frequentist and Bayesian FL by providing unbiased predictions under model misspecification, with calibrated uncertainty quantification. Our approach generalises previous FL approaches, specifically Partitioned Variational Inference (Ashman et al., 2022), by allowing robust and conjugate updates, decreasing computational complexity at the clients. We offer theoretical analysis in terms of fixed-point convergence, optimality of the cavity distribution, and provable robustness to likelihood misspecification. Further, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of FedGVI in terms of improved robustness and predictive performance on multiple synthetic and real world classification data sets.

As large language models (LMs) advance, there is an increasing need to control their outputs to align with human values (e.g., detoxification) or desired attributes (e.g., personalization, topic). However, autoregressive models focus on next-token predictions and struggle with global properties that require looking ahead. Existing solutions either post-train LMs for each new attribute—expensive and inflexible—or approximate the Expected Attribute Probability (EAP) of future sequences by sampling or training, which is slow and unreliable for rare attributes. We introduce **TRACE** (Tractable Probabilistic Reasoning for Adaptable Controllable gEneration), a novel framework that efficiently computes EAP and adapts to new attributes through tractable *probabilistic* reasoning and lightweight *control*. TRACE distills a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) from an LM and pairs it with a small classifier to estimate attribute probabilities, enabling exact EAP computation over the HMM’s predicted futures. This EAP is then used to reweigh the LM’s next-token probabilities for globally compliant continuations. Empirically, TRACE achieves state-of-the-art detoxification results with only 20% decoding overhead, yields 76 low-resource personalized LMs within seconds, and seamlessly extends to composite attributes.

We introduce a novel one-parameter variational objective that lower bounds the data evidence and enables the estimation of approximate fractional posteriors. We extend this framework to hierarchical construction and Bayes posteriors, offering a versatile tool for probabilistic modelling. We demonstrate two cases where gradients can be obtained analytically and a simulation study on mixture models showing that our fractional posteriors can be used to achieve better calibration compared to posteriors from the conventional variational bound. When applied to variational autoencoders (VAEs), our approach attains higher evidence bounds and enables learning of high-performing approximate Bayes posteriors jointly with fractional posteriors. We show that VAEs trained with fractional posteriors produce decoders that are better aligned for generation from the prior.

We propose *LEAPS*, an algorithm to sample from discrete distributions known up to normalization by learning a rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). LEAPS can be seen as a continuous-time formulation of annealed importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods, extended so that the variance of the importance weights is offset by the inclusion of the CTMC. To derive these importance weights, we introduce a set of Radon-Nikodym derivatives of CTMCs over their path measures. Because the computation of these weights is intractable with standard neural network parameterizations of rate matrices, we devise a new compact representation for rate matrices via what we call \textit{locally equivariant} functions. To parameterize them, we introduce a family of locally equivariant multilayer perceptrons, attention layers, and convolutional networks, and provide an approach to make deep networks that preserve the local equivariance. This property allows us to propose a scalable training algorithm for the rate matrix such that the variance of the importance weights associated to the CTMC are minimal. We demonstrate the efficacy of LEAPS on problems in statistical physics. We provide code in https://github.com/malbergo/leaps/.

Denoising diffusion models have driven significant progress in the field of Bayesian inverse problems. Recent approaches use pre-trained diffusion models as priors to solve a wide range of such problems, only leveraging inference-time compute and thereby eliminating the need to retrain task-specific models on the same dataset. To approximate the posterior of a Bayesian inverse problem, a diffusion model samples from a sequence of intermediate posterior distributions, each with an intractable likelihood function. This work proposes a novel mixture approximation of these intermediate distributions. Since direct gradient-based sampling of these mixtures is infeasible due to intractable terms, we propose a practical method based on Gibbs sampling. We validate our approach through extensive experiments on image inverse problems, utilizing both pixel- and latent-space diffusion priors, as well as on source separation with an audio diffusion model. The code is available at \url{https://www.github.com/badr-moufad/mgdm}.