ICML 2024 论文列表

We examine two types of binary betting markets, whose primary goal is for profit (such as sports gambling) or to gain information (such as prediction markets). We articulate the interplay between belief and price-setting to analyse both types of markets, and show that the goals of maximising bookmaker profit and eliciting information are fundamentally incompatible. A key insight is that profit hinges on the deviation between (the distribution of) bettor and true beliefs, and that heavier tails in bettor belief distribution implies higher profit. Our algorithmic contribution is to introduce online learning methods for price-setting. Traditionally bookmakers update their prices rather infrequently, we present two algorithms that guide price updates upon seeing each bet, assuming very little of bettor belief distributions. The online pricing algorithm achieves stochastic regret of $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$ against the worst local maximum, or $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T \log T})$ with high probability against the global maximum under fair odds. More broadly, the inherent tradeoff between profit and information-seeking in binary betting may inspire new understandings of large-scale multi-agent behaviour.

In online continual learning, a neural network incrementally learns from a non-i.i.d. data stream. Nearly all online continual learning methods employ experience replay to simultaneously prevent catastrophic forgetting and underfitting on past data. Our work demonstrates a limitation of this approach: neural networks trained with experience replay tend to have unstable optimization trajectories, impeding their overall accuracy. Surprisingly, these instabilities persist even when the replay buffer stores all previous training examples, suggesting that this issue is orthogonal to catastrophic forgetting. We minimize these instabilities through a simple modification of the optimization geometry. Our solution, Layerwise Proximal Replay (LPR), balances learning from new and replay data while only allowing for gradual changes in the hidden activation of past data. We demonstrate that LPR consistently improves replay-based online continual learning across multiple problem settings, regardless of the amount of available replay memory.

The anomaly detection literature is abundant with offline methods, which require repeated access to data in memory, and impose impractical assumptions when applied to a streaming context. Existing online anomaly detection methods also generally fail to address these constraints, resorting to periodic retraining to adapt to the online context. We propose Online-iForest, a novel method explicitly designed for streaming conditions that seamlessly tracks the data generating process as it evolves over time. Experimental validation on real-world datasets demonstrated that Online-iForest is on par with online alternatives and closely rivals state-of-the-art offline anomaly detection techniques that undergo periodic retraining. Notably, Online-iForest consistently outperforms all competitors in terms of efficiency, making it a promising solution in applications where fast identification of anomalies is of primary importance such as cybersecurity, fraud and fault detection.

Speculative decoding is a pivotal technique to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) by employing a smaller draft model to predict the target model's outputs. However, its efficacy can be limited due to the low predictive accuracy of the draft model, particularly when faced with diverse text inputs and a significant capability gap between the draft and target models. We introduce online speculative decoding to address this challenge. The main idea is to continuously update the (multiple) draft model(s) on observed user query data. Adapting to query distribution mitigates the shifts between the training distribution of the draft model and the query distribution, enabling the draft model to more accurately predict the target model's outputs. We develop a prototype of online speculative decoding based on knowledge distillation and evaluate it using both synthetic and real query data. The results show a substantial increase in the token acceptance rate by 0.1 to 0.65, bringing 1.42x to 2.17x latency reduction. Our code is available at https://github.com/LiuXiaoxuanPKU/OSD.

In proof assistants, the physical proximity between two formal mathematical concepts is a strong predictor of their mutual relevance. Furthermore, lemmas with close proximity regularly exhibit similar proof structures. We show that this _locality_ property can be exploited through online learning techniques to obtain solving agents that far surpass offline learners when asked to prove theorems in an unseen mathematical setting. We extensively benchmark two such online solvers implemented in the Tactician platform for the Coq proof assistant: First, Tactician's online $k$-nearest neighbor solver, which can learn from recent proofs, shows a $1.72\times$ improvement in theorems proved over an offline equivalent. Second, we introduce a graph neural network, Graph2Tac, with a novel approach to build hierarchical representations for new definitions. Graph2Tac's online definition task realizes a $1.5\times$ improvement in theorems solved over an offline baseline. The $k$-NN and Graph2Tac solvers rely on orthogonal online data, making them highly complementary. Their combination improves $1.27\times$ over their individual performances. Both solvers outperform all other general purpose provers for Coq, including CoqHammer, Proverbot9001, and a transformer baseline by at least $1.48\times$ and are available for practical use by end-users.

We develop algorithms for online linear regression which achieve optimal static and dynamic regret guarantees *even in the complete absence of prior knowledge*. We present a novel analysis showing that a discounted variant of the Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth forecaster achieves dynamic regret of the form $R_{T}(\vec{u})\le O\Big(d\log(T)\vee \sqrt{dP_{T}^{\gamma}(\vec{u})T}\Big)$, where $P_{T}^{\gamma}(\vec{u})$ is a measure of variability of the comparator sequence, and show that the discount factor achieving this result can be learned on-the-fly. We show that this result is optimal by providing a matching lower bound. We also extend our results to *strongly-adaptive* guarantees which hold over every sub-interval $[a,b]\subseteq[1,T]$ simultaneously.

We investigate the low rank matrix completion problem in an online setting with ${M}$ users, ${N}$ items, ${T}$ rounds, and an unknown rank-$r$ reward matrix ${R}\in \mathbb{R}^{{M}\times {N}}$. This problem has been well-studied in the literature and has several applications in practice. In each round, we recommend ${S}$ carefully chosen distinct items to every user and observe noisy rewards. In the regime where ${M},{N} >> {T}$, we propose two distinct computationally efficient algorithms for recommending items to users and analyze them under the benign *hott items* assumption 1) First, for ${S}=1$, under additional incoherence/smoothness assumptions on ${R}$, we propose the phased algorithm PhasedClusterElim. Our algorithm obtains a near-optimal per-user regret of $\tilde{O}({N}{M}^{-1}(\Delta^{-1}+\Delta_{\text{hott}}^{-2}))$ where $\Delta_{\text{hott}},\Delta$ are problem-dependent gap parameters with $\Delta_{\text{hott}} >> \Delta$ almost always. 2) Second, we consider a simplified setting with ${S}=r$ where we make significantly milder assumptions on ${R}$. Here, we introduce another phased algorithm, DeterminantElim, to derive a regret guarantee of $\tilde{O}({N}{M}^{-1/r}\Delta_\text{det}^{-1}))$ where $\Delta_{\text{det}}$ is another problem-dependent gap. Both algorithms crucially use collaboration among users to jointly eliminate sub-optimal items for groups of users successively in phases, but with distinctive and novel approaches.

In many reinforcement learning (RL) applications, we want policies that reach desired states and then keep the controlled system within an acceptable region around the desired states over an indefinite period of time. This latter objective is called *stability* and is especially important when the state space is unbounded, such that the states can be arbitrarily far from each other and the agent can drift far away from the desired states. For example, in stochastic queuing networks, where queues of waiting jobs can grow without bound, the desired state is all-zero queue lengths. Here, a stable policy ensures queue lengths are finite while an optimal policy minimizes queue lengths. Since an optimal policy is also stable, one would expect that RL algorithms would implicitly give us stable policies. However, in this work, we find that deep RL algorithms that directly minimize the distance to the desired state during online training often result in unstable policies, i.e., policies that drift far away from the desired state. We attribute this instability to poor credit-assignment for destabilizing actions. We then introduce an approach based on two ideas: 1) a Lyapunov-based cost-shaping technique and 2) state transformations to the unbounded state space. We conduct an empirical study on various queueing networks and traffic signal control problems and find that our approach performs competitively against strong baselines with knowledge of the transition dynamics. Our code is available here: https://github.com/Badger-RL/STOP

We study the problem of online unweighted bipartite matching with $n$ offline vertices and $n$ online vertices where one wishes to be competitive against the optimal offline algorithm. While the classic RANKING algorithm of (Karp et al., 1990) provably attains competitive ratio of $1-1/e > 1/2$, we show that no learning-augmented method can be both 1-consistent and strictly better than 1/2-robust under the adversarial arrival model. Meanwhile, under the random arrival model, we show how one can utilize methods from distribution testing to design an algorithm that takes in external advice about the online vertices and provably achieves competitive ratio interpolating between any ratio attainable by advice-free methods and the optimal ratio of 1, depending on the advice quality.

We study the problem of full-information online learning in the ``bounded recall'' setting popular in the study of repeated games. An online learning algorithm $\mathcal{A}$ is $M$-*bounded-recall* if its output at time $t$ can be written as a function of the $M$ previous rewards (and not e.g. any other internal state of $\mathcal{A}$). We first demonstrate that a natural approach to constructing bounded-recall algorithms from mean-based no-regret learning algorithms (e.g., running Hedge over the last $M$ rounds) fails, and that any such algorithm incurs constant regret per round. We then construct a stationary bounded-recall algorithm that achieves a per-round regret of $\Theta(1/\sqrt{M})$, which we complement with a tight lower bound. Finally, we show that unlike the perfect recall setting, any low regret bound bounded-recall algorithm must be aware of the ordering of the past $M$ losses -- any bounded-recall algorithm which plays a symmetric function of the past $M$ losses must incur constant regret per round.

We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes. Like previous methods, ours possesses a retrospective guarantee of coverage for arbitrary sequences. However, unlike previous methods, we can simultaneously estimate a population quantile when it exists. Our theory and experiments indicate substantially improved practical properties: in particular, when the distribution is stable, the coverage is close to the desired level *for every time point*, not just on average over the observed sequence.

Ensuring alignment of language model's outputs with human preferences is critical to guarantee a useful, safe, and pleasant user experience. Thus, human alignment has been extensively studied recently and several methods such as Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), Direct Policy Optimisation (DPO) and Sequence Likelihood Calibration (SLiC) have emerged. In this paper, our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the equivalence between two recent alignment methods, namely Identity Policy Optimisation (IPO) and Nash Mirror Descent (Nash-MD). Second, we introduce a generalisation of IPO, named IPO-MD, that leverages the regularised sampling approach proposed by Nash-MD. This equivalence may seem surprising at first sight, since IPO is an offline method whereas Nash-MD is an online method using a preference model. However, this equivalence can be proven when we consider the online version of IPO, that is when both generations are sampled by the online policy and annotated by a trained preference model. Optimising the IPO loss with such a stream of data becomes then equivalent to finding the Nash equilibrium of the preference model through self-play. Building on this equivalence, we introduce the IPO-MD algorithm that generates data with a mixture policy (between the online and reference policy) similarly as the general Nash-MD algorithm. We compare online-IPO and IPO-MD to different online versions of existing losses on preference data such as DPO and SLiC on a summarisation task.