ICML 2024 论文列表

In many problems, the measured variables (e.g., image pixels) are just mathematical functions of the latent causal variables (e.g., the underlying concepts or objects). For the purpose of making predictions in changing environments or making proper changes to the system, it is helpful to recover the latent causal variables $Z_i$ and their causal relations represented by graph $\mathcal{G}_Z$. This problem has recently been known as causal representation learning. This paper is concerned with a general, completely nonparametric setting of causal representation learning from multiple distributions (arising from heterogeneous data or nonstationary time series), without assuming hard interventions behind distribution changes. We aim to develop general solutions in this fundamental case; as a by product, this helps see the unique benefit offered by other assumptions such as parametric causal models or hard interventions. We show that under the sparsity constraint on the recovered graph over the latent variables and suitable sufficient change conditions on the causal influences, interestingly, one can recover the moralized graph of the underlying directed acyclic graph, and the recovered latent variables and their relations are related to the underlying causal model in a specific, nontrivial way. In some cases, most latent variables can even be recovered up to component-wise transformations. Experimental results verify our theoretical claims.

Causal representation learning aims at identifying high-level causal variables from perceptual data. Most methods assume that all latent causal variables are captured in the high-dimensional observations. We instead consider a partially observed setting, in which each measurement only provides information about a subset of the underlying causal state. Prior work has studied this setting with multiple domains or views, each depending on a fixed subset of latents. Here, we focus on learning from unpaired observations from a dataset with an instance-dependent partial observability pattern. Our main contribution is to establish two identifiability results for this setting: one for linear mixing functions without parametric assumptions on the underlying causal model, and one for piecewise linear mixing functions with Gaussian latent causal variables. Based on these insights, we propose two methods for estimating the underlying causal variables by enforcing sparsity in the inferred representation. Experiments on different simulated datasets and established benchmarks highlight the effectiveness of our approach in recovering the ground-truth latents.

Collaboration between different data centers is often challenged by heterogeneity across sites. To account for the heterogeneity, the state-of-the-art method is to re-weight the covariate distributions in each site to match the distribution of the target population. Nevertheless, this method still relies on the concept of traditional meta-analysis after adjusting for the distribution shift. This work proposes a collaborative inverse propensity score weighting estimator for causal inference with heterogeneous data. Instead of adjusting the distribution shift separately, we use weighted propensity score models to collaboratively adjust for the distribution shift. Our method shows significant improvements over the methods based on meta-analysis when heterogeneity increases. By incorporating outcome regression models, we prove the asymptotic normality when the covariates have dimension $d<8$. Our methods preserve privacy at individual sites by implementing federated learning protocols.

We investigate the problem of explainability for machine learning models, focusing on Feature Attribution Methods (FAMs) that evaluate feature importance through perturbation tests. Despite their utility, FAMs struggle to distinguish the contributions of different features, when their prediction changes are similar after perturbation. To enhance FAMs' discriminative power, we introduce Feature Attribution with Necessity and Sufficiency (FANS), which find a neighborhood of the input such that perturbing samples within this neighborhood have a high Probability of being Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS) cause for the change in predictions, and use this PNS as the importance of the feature. Specifically, FANS compute this PNS via a heuristic strategy for estimating the neighborhood and a perturbation test involving two stages (factual and interventional) for counterfactual reasoning. To generate counterfactual samples, we use a resampling-based approach on the observed samples to approximate the required conditional distribution. We demonstrate that FANS outperforms existing attribution methods on six benchmarks. Please refer to the source code via https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/FANS.

Many applications of RCTs involve the presence of multiple treatment administrators---from field experiments to online advertising---that compete for the subjects' attention. In the face of competition, estimating a causal effect becomes difficult, as the position at which a subject sees a treatment influences their response, and thus the treatment effect. In this paper, we build a game-theoretic model of agents who wish to estimate causal effects in the presence of competition, through a bidding system and a utility function that minimizes estimation error. Our main technical result establishes an approximation with a tractable objective that maximizes the sample value obtained through strategically allocating budget on subjects. This allows us to find an equilibrium in our model: we show that the tractable objective has a pure Nash equilibrium, and that any Nash equilibrium is an approximate equilibrium for our general objective that minimizes estimation error under broad conditions. Conceptually, our work successfully combines elements from causal inference and game theory to shed light on the equilibrium behavior of experimentation under competition.

Most studies on causal inference tackle the issue of confounding bias by reducing the distribution shift between the control and treated groups. However, it remains an open question to adopt an appropriate metric for distribution shift in practice. In this paper, we define a generic balancing error on reweighted samples to characterize the confounding bias, and study the connection between the balancing error and the Wasserstein discrepancy derived from the theory of optimal transport. We not only regard the Wasserstein discrepancy as the metric of distribution shift, but also explore the association between the balancing error and the underlying cost function involved in the Wasserstein discrepancy. Motivated by this, we propose to reduce the balancing error under the framework of optimal transport with learnable marginal distributions and the cost function, which is implemented by jointly learning weights and representations associated with factual outcomes. The experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

The decoder-only Transformer architecture with causal masking and relative position encoding (RPE) has become the de facto choice in language modeling. Despite its exceptional performance across various tasks, we have identified two limitations: First, it prevents all attended tokens from having zero weights during the softmax stage, even if the current embedding has sufficient self-contained information. This compels the model to assign disproportional excessive attention to specific tokens. Second, RPE-based Transformers are not universal approximators due to their limited capacity at encoding absolute positional information, which limits their application in position-critical tasks. In this work, we propose StableMask: a parameter-free method to address both limitations by refining the causal mask. It introduces pseudo-attention values to balance attention distributions and encodes absolute positional information via a progressively decreasing mask ratio. StableMask's effectiveness is validated both theoretically and empirically, showing significant enhancements in language models with parameter sizes ranging from 71M to 1.4B across diverse datasets and encoding methods. We further show that it supports integration with existing optimization techniques, making it easily usable in practical applications.

The weighted squared loss is a common component in several Collaborative Filtering (CF) algorithms for item recommendation, including the representative implicit Alternating Least Squares (iALS). Despite its widespread use, this loss function lacks a clear connection to ranking objectives such as Discounted Cumulative Gain (DCG), posing a fundamental challenge in explaining the exceptional ranking performance observed in these algorithms. In this work, we make a breakthrough by establishing a connection between squared loss and ranking metrics through a Taylor expansion of the DCG-consistent surrogate loss—softmax loss. We also discover a new surrogate squared loss function, namely Ranking-Generalizable Squared (RG$^2$) loss, and conduct thorough theoretical analyses on the DCG-consistency of the proposed loss function. Later, we present an example of utilizing the RG$^2$ loss with Matrix Factorization (MF), coupled with a generalization upper bound and an ALS optimization algorithm that leverages closed-form solutions over all items. Experimental results over three public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the RG$^2$ loss, exhibiting ranking performance on par with, or even surpassing, the softmax loss while achieving faster convergence.

We study the generic identifiability of causal effects in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) with latent variables. We consider the problem in two main settings: When the causal graph is known a priori, and when it is unknown. In both settings, we provide a complete graphical characterization of the identifiable direct or total causal effects among observed variables. Moreover, we propose efficient algorithms to certify the graphical conditions. Finally, we propose an adaptation of the reconstruction independent component analysis (RICA) algorithm that estimates the causal effects from the observational data given the causal graph. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in estimating the causal effects.

Regulators and academics are increasingly interested in the causal effect that algorithmic actions of a digital platform have on user consumption. In pursuit of estimating this effect from observational data, we identify a set of assumptions that permit causal identifiability without assuming randomized platform actions. Our results are applicable to platforms that rely on machine-learning-powered predictions and leverage knowledge from historical data. The key novelty of our approach is to explicitly model the dynamics of consumption over time, exploiting the repeated interaction of digital platforms with their participants to prove our identifiability results. By viewing the platform as a controller acting on a dynamical system, we can show that exogenous variation in consumption and appropriately responsive algorithmic control actions are sufficient for identifying the causal effect of interest. We complement our claims with an analysis of ready-to-use finite sample estimators and empirical investigations. More broadly, our results deriving identifiability conditions tailored to digital platform settings illustrate a fruitful interplay of control theory and causal inference.

In this paper, we propose a new recommendation algorithm for addressing the problem of two-sided online matching markets with complementary preferences and quota constraints, where agents' preferences are unknown a priori and must be learned from data. The presence of mixed quota and complementary preferences constraints can lead to instability in the matching process, making this problem challenging to solve. To overcome this challenge, we formulate the problem as a bandit learning framework and propose the Multi-agent Multi-type Thompson Sampling (MMTS) algorithm. The algorithm combines the strengths of Thompson Sampling for exploration with a new double matching technique to provide a stable matching outcome. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of MMTS as it can achieve stability and has a total $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(Q{\sqrt{K_{\max}T}})$-Bayesian regret with high probability, which exhibits linearity with respect to the total firm's quota $Q$, the square root of the maximum size of available type workers $\sqrt{K_{\max}}$ and time horizon $T$. In addition, simulation studies also demonstrate MMTS' effectiveness in various settings. We provide code used in our experiments https://github.com/Likelyt/Double-Matching.

Scaling laws play an instrumental role in the sustainable improvement in model quality. Unfortunately, recommendation models to date do not exhibit such laws similar to those observed in the domain of large language models, due to the inefficiencies of their upscaling mechanisms. This limitation poses significant challenges in adapting these models to increasingly more complex real-world datasets. In this paper, we propose an effective network architecture based purely on stacked factorization machines, and a synergistic upscaling strategy, collectively dubbed Wukong, to establish a scaling law in the domain of recommendation. Wukong’s unique design makes it possible to capture diverse, any-order of interactions simply through taller and wider layers. We conducted extensive evaluations on six public datasets, and our results demonstrate that Wukong consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models quality-wise. Further, we assessed Wukong’s scalability on an internal, large-scale dataset. The results show that Wukong retains its superiority in quality over state-of-the-art models, while holding the scaling law across two orders of magnitude in model complexity, extending beyond 100 GFLOP/example, where prior arts fall short.

Offline data are both valuable and practical resources for teaching robots complex behaviors. Ideally, learning agents should not be constrained by the scarcity of available demonstrations, but rather generalize beyond the training distribution. However, the complexity of real-world scenarios typically requires huge amounts of data to prevent neural network policies from picking up on spurious correlations and learning non-causal relationships. We propose CAIAC, a data augmentation method that can create feasible synthetic transitions from a fixed dataset without having access to online environment interactions. By utilizing principled methods for quantifying causal influence, we are able to perform counterfactual reasoning by swapping $\textit{action}$-unaffected parts of the state-space between independent trajectories in the dataset. We empirically show that this leads to a substantial increase in robustness of offline learning algorithms against distributional shift.

Identifying and estimating a causal effect is a fundamental task when researchers want to infer a causal effect using an observational study without experiments. A conventional assumption is the strict positivity of the given distribution, or so called positivity (or overlap) under the unconfounded assumption that the probabilities of treatments are positive. However, there exist many environments where neither observational data exhibits strict positivity nor unconfounded assumption holds. Against this background, we examine the graphical counterpart of the conventional positivity condition so as to license the use of identification formula without strict positivity. In particular, we explore various approaches, including analysis in a post-hoc manner, do-calculus, $Q$-decomposition, and algorithmic, to yielding a positivity condition for an identification formula, where we relate them, providing a comprehensive view. We further discuss the design of a positivity-aware identification algorithm based on the theoretical characterization of identification formulas.

This paper studies the causal relations from subsampled time series, in which measurements are sparse and sampled at a coarser timescale than the causal timescale of the underlying system. In such data, because there are numerous missing time-slices (i.e., cross-sections at each time point) between two consecutive measurements, conventional causal discovery methods designed for standard time series data would produce significant errors. To learn causal relations from subsampled time series, a typical solution is to conduct different interventions and then make a comparison. However, full interventions are often expensive, unethical, or even infeasible, particularly in fields such as health and social science. In this paper, we first explore how readily available two-time-slices data can replace intervention data to improve causal ordering, and propose a novel Descendant Hierarchical Topology algorithm with Conditional Independence Test (DHT-CIT) to learn causal relations from subsampled time series using only two time-slices. Specifically, we develop a conditional independence criterion that can be applied iteratively to test each node from time series and identify all of its descendant nodes. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our DHT-CIT algorithm.

Causal effect estimation under networked interference is an important but challenging problem. Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, while previous semiparametric methods, e.g., leveraging neural networks to fit only one single nuisance function, may still encounter misspecification problems under networked interference without appropriate assumptions on the data generation process. To mitigate bias stemming from misspecification, we propose a novel doubly robust causal effect estimator under networked interference, by adapting the targeted learning technique to the training of neural networks. Specifically, we generalize the targeted learning technique into the networked interference setting and establish the condition under which an estimator achieves double robustness. Based on the condition, we devise an end-to-end causal effect estimator by transforming the identified theoretical condition into a targeted loss. Moreover, we provide a theoretical analysis of our designed estimator, revealing a faster convergence rate compared to a single nuisance model. Extensive experimental results on two real-world networks with semisynthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed estimators.

Causal inference on networks faces challenges posed in part by violations of standard identification assumptions due to dependencies between treatment units. Although graph geometry fundamentally influences such dependencies, the potential of geometric tools for causal inference on networked treatment units is yet to be unlocked. Moreover, despite significant progress utilizing graph neural networks (GNNs) for causal inference on networks, methods for evaluating their achievable reliability without ground truth are lacking. In this work we establish for the first time a theoretical link between network geometry, the graph Ricci curvature in particular, and causal inference, formalizing the intrinsic challenges that negative curvature poses to estimating causal parameters. The Ricci curvature can then be used to assess the reliability of causal estimates in structured data, as we empirically demonstrate. Informed by this finding, we propose a method using the geometric Ricci flow to reduce causal effect estimation error in networked data, showcasing how this newfound connection between graph geometry and causal inference could improve GNN-based causal inference. Bridging graph geometry and causal inference, this paper opens the door to geometric techniques for improving causal estimation on networks.

Discovering causal relationships from observational data, particularly in the presence of latent variables, poses a challenging problem. While current local structure learning methods have proven effective and efficient when the focus lies solely on the local relationships of a target variable, they operate under the assumption of causal sufficiency. This assumption implies that all the common causes of the measured variables are observed, leaving no room for latent variables. Such a premise can be easily violated in various real-world applications, resulting in inaccurate structures that may adversely impact downstream tasks. In light of this, our paper delves into the primary investigation of locally identifying potential parents and children of a target from observational data that may include latent variables. Specifically, we harness the causal information from m-separation and V-structures to derive theoretical consistency results, effectively bridging the gap between global and local structure learning. Together with the newly developed stop rules, we present a principled method for determining whether a variable is a direct cause or effect of a target. Further, we theoretically demonstrate the correctness of our approach under the standard causal Markov and faithfulness conditions, with infinite samples. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data validate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.