ICML 2024 论文列表

Many applications of RCTs involve the presence of multiple treatment administrators---from field experiments to online advertising---that compete for the subjects' attention. In the face of competition, estimating a causal effect becomes difficult, as the position at which a subject sees a treatment influences their response, and thus the treatment effect. In this paper, we build a game-theoretic model of agents who wish to estimate causal effects in the presence of competition, through a bidding system and a utility function that minimizes estimation error. Our main technical result establishes an approximation with a tractable objective that maximizes the sample value obtained through strategically allocating budget on subjects. This allows us to find an equilibrium in our model: we show that the tractable objective has a pure Nash equilibrium, and that any Nash equilibrium is an approximate equilibrium for our general objective that minimizes estimation error under broad conditions. Conceptually, our work successfully combines elements from causal inference and game theory to shed light on the equilibrium behavior of experimentation under competition.

Most studies on causal inference tackle the issue of confounding bias by reducing the distribution shift between the control and treated groups. However, it remains an open question to adopt an appropriate metric for distribution shift in practice. In this paper, we define a generic balancing error on reweighted samples to characterize the confounding bias, and study the connection between the balancing error and the Wasserstein discrepancy derived from the theory of optimal transport. We not only regard the Wasserstein discrepancy as the metric of distribution shift, but also explore the association between the balancing error and the underlying cost function involved in the Wasserstein discrepancy. Motivated by this, we propose to reduce the balancing error under the framework of optimal transport with learnable marginal distributions and the cost function, which is implemented by jointly learning weights and representations associated with factual outcomes. The experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

The decoder-only Transformer architecture with causal masking and relative position encoding (RPE) has become the de facto choice in language modeling. Despite its exceptional performance across various tasks, we have identified two limitations: First, it prevents all attended tokens from having zero weights during the softmax stage, even if the current embedding has sufficient self-contained information. This compels the model to assign disproportional excessive attention to specific tokens. Second, RPE-based Transformers are not universal approximators due to their limited capacity at encoding absolute positional information, which limits their application in position-critical tasks. In this work, we propose StableMask: a parameter-free method to address both limitations by refining the causal mask. It introduces pseudo-attention values to balance attention distributions and encodes absolute positional information via a progressively decreasing mask ratio. StableMask's effectiveness is validated both theoretically and empirically, showing significant enhancements in language models with parameter sizes ranging from 71M to 1.4B across diverse datasets and encoding methods. We further show that it supports integration with existing optimization techniques, making it easily usable in practical applications.

AI systems have been shown to produce unfair results for certain subgroups of population, highlighting the need to understand bias on certain sensitive attributes. Current research often falls short, primarily focusing on the subgroups characterized by a single sensitive attribute, while neglecting the nature of intersectional fairness of multiple sensitive attributes. This paper focuses on its one fundamental aspect by discovering diverse high-bias intersectional sensitive attributes. Specifically, we propose a Bias-Guided Generative Network (BGGN). By treating each bias value as a reward, BGGN efficiently generates high-bias intersectional sensitive attributes. Experiments on real-world text and image datasets demonstrate a diverse and efficient discovery of BGGN. To further evaluate the generated unseen but possible unfair intersectional sensitive attributes, we formulate them as prompts and use modern generative AI to produce new text and images. The results of frequently generating biased data provides new insights of discovering potential unfairness in popular modern generative AI systems. **Warning: This paper contains examples that are offensive in nature.**

Score-based methods have demonstrated their effectiveness in discovering causal relationships by scoring different causal structures based on their goodness of fit to the data. Recently, Huang et al. proposed a generalized score function that can handle general data distributions and causal relationships by modeling the relations in reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). The selection of an appropriate kernel within this score function is crucial for accurately characterizing causal relationships and ensuring precise causal discovery. However, the current method involves manual heuristic selection of kernel parameters, making the process tedious and less likely to ensure optimality. In this paper, we propose a kernel selection method within the generalized score function that automatically selects the optimal kernel that best fits the data. Specifically, we model the generative process of the variables involved in each step of the causal graph search procedure as a mixture of independent noise variables. Based on this model, we derive an automatic kernel selection method by maximizing the marginal likelihood of the variables involved in each search step. We conduct experiments on both synthetic data and real-world benchmarks, and the results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms heuristic kernel selection methods.

Statistical model discovery is a challenging search over a vast space of models subject to domain-specific constraints. Efficiently searching over this space requires expertise in modeling and the problem domain. Motivated by the domain knowledge and programming capabilities of large language models (LMs), we introduce a method for language model driven automated statistical model discovery. We cast our automated procedure within the principled framework of Box’s Loop: the LM iterates between proposing statistical models represented as probabilistic programs, acting as a modeler, and critiquing those models, acting as a domain expert. By leveraging LMs, we do not have to define a domain-specific language of models or design a handcrafted search procedure, which are key restrictions of previous systems. We evaluate our method in three settings in probabilistic modeling: searching within a restricted space of models, searching over an open-ended space, and improving expert models under natural language constraints (e.g., this model should be interpretable to an ecologist). Our method identifies models on par with human expert designed models and extends classic models in interpretable ways. Our results highlight the promise of LM-driven model discovery.

Identifying and estimating a causal effect is a fundamental task when researchers want to infer a causal effect using an observational study without experiments. A conventional assumption is the strict positivity of the given distribution, or so called positivity (or overlap) under the unconfounded assumption that the probabilities of treatments are positive. However, there exist many environments where neither observational data exhibits strict positivity nor unconfounded assumption holds. Against this background, we examine the graphical counterpart of the conventional positivity condition so as to license the use of identification formula without strict positivity. In particular, we explore various approaches, including analysis in a post-hoc manner, do-calculus, $Q$-decomposition, and algorithmic, to yielding a positivity condition for an identification formula, where we relate them, providing a comprehensive view. We further discuss the design of a positivity-aware identification algorithm based on the theoretical characterization of identification formulas.

This paper studies the causal relations from subsampled time series, in which measurements are sparse and sampled at a coarser timescale than the causal timescale of the underlying system. In such data, because there are numerous missing time-slices (i.e., cross-sections at each time point) between two consecutive measurements, conventional causal discovery methods designed for standard time series data would produce significant errors. To learn causal relations from subsampled time series, a typical solution is to conduct different interventions and then make a comparison. However, full interventions are often expensive, unethical, or even infeasible, particularly in fields such as health and social science. In this paper, we first explore how readily available two-time-slices data can replace intervention data to improve causal ordering, and propose a novel Descendant Hierarchical Topology algorithm with Conditional Independence Test (DHT-CIT) to learn causal relations from subsampled time series using only two time-slices. Specifically, we develop a conditional independence criterion that can be applied iteratively to test each node from time series and identify all of its descendant nodes. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our DHT-CIT algorithm.

To make accurate predictions, understand mechanisms, and design interventions in systems of many variables, we wish to learn causal graphs from large scale data. Unfortunately the space of all possible causal graphs is enormous so scalably and accurately searching for the best fit to the data is a challenge. In principle we could substantially decrease the search space, or learn the graph entirely, by testing the conditional independence of variables. However, deciding if two variables are adjacent in a causal graph may require an exponential number of tests. Here we build a scalable and flexible method to evaluate if two variables are adjacent in a causal graph, the Differentiable Adjacency Test (DAT). DAT replaces an exponential number of tests with a provably equivalent relaxed problem. It then solves this problem by training two neural networks. We build a graph learning method based on DAT, DAT-Graph, that can also learn from data with interventions. DAT-Graph can learn graphs of 1000 variables with state of the art accuracy. Using the graph learned by DAT-Graph, we also build models that make much more accurate predictions of the effects of interventions on large scale RNA sequencing data.

Discovering causal relationships from observational data, particularly in the presence of latent variables, poses a challenging problem. While current local structure learning methods have proven effective and efficient when the focus lies solely on the local relationships of a target variable, they operate under the assumption of causal sufficiency. This assumption implies that all the common causes of the measured variables are observed, leaving no room for latent variables. Such a premise can be easily violated in various real-world applications, resulting in inaccurate structures that may adversely impact downstream tasks. In light of this, our paper delves into the primary investigation of locally identifying potential parents and children of a target from observational data that may include latent variables. Specifically, we harness the causal information from m-separation and V-structures to derive theoretical consistency results, effectively bridging the gap between global and local structure learning. Together with the newly developed stop rules, we present a principled method for determining whether a variable is a direct cause or effect of a target. Further, we theoretically demonstrate the correctness of our approach under the standard causal Markov and faithfulness conditions, with infinite samples. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data validate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

Causal discovery in the presence of missing data introduces a chicken-and-egg dilemma. While the goal is to recover the true causal structure, robust imputation requires considering the dependencies or, preferably, causal relations among variables. Merely filling in missing values with existing imputation methods and subsequently applying structure learning on the complete data is empirically shown to be sub-optimal. To address this problem, we propose a score-based algorithm for learning causal structures from missing data based on optimal transport. This optimal transport viewpoint diverges from existing score-based approaches that are dominantly based on expectation maximization. We formulate structure learning as a density fitting problem, where the goal is to find the causal model that induces a distribution of minimum Wasserstein distance with the observed data distribution. Our framework is shown to recover the true causal graphs more effectively than competing methods in most simulations and real-data settings. Empirical evidence also shows the superior scalability of our approach, along with the flexibility to incorporate any off-the-shelf causal discovery methods for complete data.