变分推断

Group Equivariant CNNs (G-CNNs) have shown promising efficacy in various tasks, owing to their ability to capture hierarchical features in an equivariant manner. However, their equivariance is fixed to the symmetry of the whole group, limiting adaptability to diverse partial symmetries in real-world datasets, such as limited rotation symmetry of handwritten digit images and limited color-shift symmetry of flower images. Recent efforts address this limitation, one example being Partial G-CNN which restricts the output group space of convolution layers to break full equivariance. However, such an approach still fails to adjust equivariance levels across data. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, Variational Partial G-CNN (VP G-CNN), to capture varying levels of partial equivariance specific to each data instance. VP G-CNN redesigns the distribution of the output group elements to be conditioned on input data, leveraging variational inference to avoid overfitting. This enables the model to adjust its equivariance levels according to the needs of individual data points. Additionally, we address training instability inherent in discrete group equivariance models by redesigning the reparametrizable distribution. We demonstrate the effectiveness of VP G-CNN on both toy and real-world datasets, including MNIST67-180, CIFAR10, ColorMNIST, and Flowers102. Our results show robust performance, even in uncertainty metrics.

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) extends traditional variational families with semi-implicit distributions defined in a hierarchical manner. Due to the intractable densities of semi-implicit distributions, classical SIVI often resorts to surrogates of evidence lower bound (ELBO) that would introduce biases for training. A recent advancement in SIVI, named SIVI-SM, utilizes an alternative score matching objective made tractable via a minimax formulation, albeit requiring an additional lower-level optimization. In this paper, we propose kernel SIVI (KSIVI), a variant of SIVI-SM that eliminates the need for the lower-level optimization through kernel tricks. Specifically, we show that when optimizing over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), the lower-level problem has an explicit solution. This way, the upper-level objective becomes the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which is readily computable for stochastic gradient descent due to the hierarchical structure of semi-implicit variational distributions. An upper bound for the variance of the Monte Carlo gradient estimators of the KSD objective is derived, which allows us to establish novel convergence guarantees of KSIVI. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of KSIVI on both synthetic distributions and a variety of real data Bayesian inference tasks.

Stochastic natural gradient variational inference (NGVI) is a popular posterior inference method with applications in various probabilistic models. Despite its wide usage, little is known about the non-asymptotic convergence rate in the *stochastic* setting. We aim to lessen this gap and provide a better understanding. For conjugate likelihoods, we prove the first $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{T})$ non-asymptotic convergence rate of stochastic NGVI. The complexity is no worse than stochastic gradient descent (a.k.a. black-box variational inference) and the rate likely has better constant dependency that leads to faster convergence in practice. For non-conjugate likelihoods, we show that stochastic NGVI with the canonical parameterization implicitly optimizes a non-convex objective. Thus, a global convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{T})$ is unlikely without some significant new understanding of optimizing the ELBO using natural gradients.

Schrödinger bridge (SB) has emerged as the go-to method for optimizing transportation plans in diffusion models. However, SB requires estimating the intractable forward score functions, inevitably resulting in the (costly) implicit training loss based on simulated trajectories. To improve the scalability while preserving efficient transportation plans, we leverage variational inference to linearize the forward score functions (variational scores) of SB and restore *simulation-free* properties in training backward scores. We propose the variational Schrödinger diffusion model (VSDM), where the forward process is a multivariate diffusion and the variational scores are adaptively optimized for efficient transport. Theoretically, we use stochastic approximation to prove the convergence of the variational scores and show the convergence of the adaptively generated samples based on the optimal variational scores. Empirically, we test the algorithm in simulated examples and observe that VSDM is efficient in generations of anisotropic shapes and yields straighter sample trajectories compared to the single-variate diffusion. We also verify the scalability of the algorithm in real-world data and achieve competitive unconditional generation performance in CIFAR10 and conditional generation in time series modeling. Notably, VSDM no longer depends on warm-up initializations required by SB.

In network games, individuals interact strategically within network environments to maximize their utilities. However, obtaining network structures is challenging. In this work, we propose an unsupervised learning model, called data-dependent gated-prior graph variational autoencoder (GPGVAE), that infers the underlying latent interaction type (strategic complement vs. substitute) among individuals and the latent network structure based on their observed actions. Specially, we propose a spectral graph neural network (GNN) based encoder to predict the interaction type and a data-dependent gated prior that models network structures conditioned on the interaction type. We further propose a Transformer based mixture of Bernoulli encoder of network structures and a GNN based decoder of game actions. We systematically study the Monte Carlo gradient estimation methods and effectively train our model in a stage-wise fashion. Extensive experiments across various synthetic and real-world network games demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performances in inferring network structures and well captures interaction types.

Being the most classical generative model for serial data, state-space models (SSM) are fundamental in AI and statistical machine learning. In SSM, any form of parameter learning or latent state inference typically involves the computation of complex latent-state posteriors. In this work, we build upon the variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) method, which provides computationally efficient and accurate model parameter estimation and Bayesian latent-state inference by combining particle methods and variational inference. While standard VSMC operates in the offline mode, by re-processing repeatedly a given batch of data, we distribute the approximation of the gradient of the VSMC surrogate ELBO in time using stochastic approximation, allowing for online learning in the presence of streams of data. This results in an algorithm, online VSMC, that is capable of performing efficiently, entirely on-the-fly, both parameter estimation and particle proposal adaptation. In addition, we provide rigorous theoretical results describing the algorithm's convergence properties as the number of data tends to infinity as well as numerical illustrations of its excellent convergence properties and usefulness also in batch-processing settings.

Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is (typically) the reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Despite its empirical success, the theoretical properties of VI have only recently received attention, and is restricted to the Gaussian case. This research paper aims to contribute to the theoretical study of VI in the non-Gaussian case by investigating the setting of Mixture of Gaussians with fixed covariance. In this view, VI over this specific family can be casted as the minimization of a Mollified relative entropy, i.e. the KL between the convolution (with respect to a Gaussian kernel) of an atomic measure supported on Diracs, where the support of the atomic measure correspond to the localization of the Gaussian components, and the target distribution. Hence, solving variational inference is equivalent to optimizing the positions of the Diracs (the particles), which can be done through gradient descent and takes the form of an interacting particle system. We study two sources of error in variational inference in this context. The first is an optimization result that is a descent lemma establishing that the algorithm decreases the objective at each iteration. The second is an approximation error that upper bounds the mollified relative entropy between an optimal finite mixture and the target distribution.

Monte Carlo methods, Variational Inference, and their combinations play a pivotal role in sampling from intractable probability distributions. However, current studies lack a unified evaluation framework, relying on disparate performance measures and limited method comparisons across diverse tasks, complicating the assessment of progress and hindering the decision-making of practitioners. In response to these challenges, our work introduces a benchmark that evaluates sampling methods using a standardized task suite and a broad range of performance criteria. Moreover, we study existing metrics for quantifying mode collapse and introduce novel metrics for this purpose. Our findings provide insights into strengths and weaknesses of existing sampling methods, serving as a valuable reference for future developments.

Mean-field variational inference (MFVI) methods provide computationally cheap approximations to the posterior of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) when compared to alternatives like MCMC. However, applying MFVI to BNNs encounters limitations due to the Monte Carlo sampling problem. This problem stems from two main issues. *First*, most samples do not accurately represent the most probable weights. *Second*, random sampling from variational distributions introduces high variance in gradient estimates, which can hinder the optimization process, leading to slow convergence or even failure. In this paper, we introduce a novel sampling method called *Reparameterized Importance Sampling* (RIS) to estimate the first moment in neural networks, reducing variance during feed-forward propagation. We begin by analyzing the generalized form of the optimal proposal distribution and presenting an inexpensive approximation. Next, we describe the sampling process from the proposal distribution as a transformation that combines exogenous randomness with the variational parameters. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RIS method in three critical aspects: improved convergence, enhanced predictive performance, and successful uncertainty estimation for out-of-distribution data.

The objective to be minimized in the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) has a restricted form, which allows a specialized sequential minimal optimization (SMO) that requires only a few observations in each iteration. However, the SMO iteration is still costly due to the observation noise---one *observation* at a point typically requires averaging over hundreds to thousands of repeated quantum *measurement shots* for achieving a reasonable noise level. In this paper, we propose an adaptive cost control method, named *subspace in confident region* (SubsCoRe), for SMO. SubsCoRe uses the Gaussian process (GP) surrogate, and requires it to have low uncertainty over the subspace being updated, so that optimization in each iteration is performed with guaranteed accuracy. Adaptive cost control is performed by setting the required accuracy according to the progress of the optimization, and identifying the minimum number of measurement shots, as well as their distribution, satisfying the SubsCoRe requirement.

We give extensive empirical evidence against the common belief that variational learning is ineffective for large neural networks. We show that an optimizer called Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) consistently matches or outperforms Adam for training large networks such as GPT-2 and ResNets from scratch. IVON's computational costs are nearly identical to Adam but its predictive uncertainty is better. We show several new use cases of IVON where we improve finetuning and model merging in Large Language Models, accurately predict generalization error, and faithfully estimate sensitivity to data. We find overwhelming evidence that variational learning is effective. Code is available at https://github.com/team-approx-bayes/ivon.

Most leading implementations of black-box variational inference (BBVI) are based on optimizing a stochastic evidence lower bound (ELBO). But such approaches to BBVI often converge slowly due to the high variance of their gradient estimates and their sensitivity to hyperparameters. In this work, we propose _batch and match_ (BaM), an alternative approach to BBVI based on a score-based divergence. Notably, this score-based divergence can be optimized by a closed-form proximal update for Gaussian variational families with full covariance matrices. We analyze the convergence of BaM when the target distribution is Gaussian, and we prove that in the limit of infinite batch size the variational parameter updates converge exponentially quickly to the target mean and covariance. We also evaluate the performance of BaM on Gaussian and non-Gaussian target distributions that arise from posterior inference in hierarchical and deep generative models. In these experiments, we find that BaM typically converges in fewer (and sometimes significantly fewer) gradient evaluations than leading implementations of BBVI based on ELBO maximization.

We present an algorithm for skill discovery from expert demonstrations. The algorithm first utilizes Large Language Models (LLMs) to propose an initial segmentation of the trajectories. Following that, a hierarchical variational inference framework incorporates the LLM-generated segmentation information to discover reusable skills by merging trajectory segments. To further control the trade-off between compression and reusability, we introduce a novel auxiliary objective based on the Minimum Description Length principle that helps guide this skill discovery process. Our results demonstrate that agents equipped with our method are able to discover skills that help accelerate learning and outperform baseline skill learning approaches on new long-horizon tasks in BabyAI, a grid world navigation environment, as well as ALFRED, a household simulation environment.

In this paper, we introduce and analyze a variant of the Thompson sampling (TS) algorithm for contextual bandits. At each round, traditional TS requires samples from the current posterior distribution, which is usually intractable. To circumvent this issue, approximate inference techniques can be used and provide samples with distribution close to the posteriors. However, current approximate techniques yield to either poor estimation (Laplace approximation) or can be computationally expensive (MCMC methods, Ensemble sampling...). In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, Varational Inference TS $\mathtt{VITS}$, based on Gaussian Variational Inference. This scheme provides powerful posterior approximations which are easy to sample from, and is computationally efficient, making it an ideal choice for TS. In addition, we show that $\mathtt{VITS}$ achieves a sub-linear regret bound of the same order in the dimension and number of round as traditional TS for linear contextual bandit. Finally, we demonstrate experimentally the effectiveness of $\mathtt{VITS}$ on both synthetic and real world datasets

Amortized variational inference is an often employed framework in simulation-based inference that produces a posterior approximation that can be rapidly computed given any new observation. Unfortunately, there are few guarantees about the quality of these approximate posteriors. We propose Conformalized Amortized Neural Variational Inference (CANVI), a procedure that is scalable, easily implemented, and provides guaranteed marginal coverage. Given a collection of candidate amortized posterior approximators, CANVI constructs conformalized predictors based on each candidate, compares the predictors using a metric known as predictive efficiency, and returns the most efficient predictor. CANVI ensures that the resulting predictor constructs regions that contain the truth with a user-specified level of probability. CANVI is agnostic to design decisions in formulating the candidate approximators and only requires access to samples from the forward model, permitting its use in likelihood-free settings. We prove lower bounds on the predictive efficiency of the regions produced by CANVI and explore how the quality of a posterior approximation relates to the predictive efficiency of prediction regions based on that approximation. Finally, we demonstrate the accurate calibration and high predictive efficiency of CANVI on a suite of simulation-based inference benchmark tasks and an important scientific task: analyzing galaxy emission spectra.

We propose the stochastic optimal path which solves the classical optimal path problem by a probability-softening solution. This unified approach transforms a wide range of DP problems into directed acyclic graphs in which all paths follow a Gibbs distribution. We show the equivalence of the Gibbs distribution to a message-passing algorithm by the properties of the Gumbel distribution and give all the ingredients required for variational Bayesian inference of a latent path, namely Bayesian dynamic programming (BDP). We demonstrate the usage of BDP in the latent space of variational autoencoders (VAEs) and propose the BDP-VAE which captures structured sparse optimal paths as latent variables. This enables end-to-end training for generative tasks in which models rely on unobserved structural information. At last, we validate the behavior of our approach and showcase its applicability in two real-world applications: text-to-speech and singing voice synthesis. Our implementation code is available at https://github.com/XinleiNIU/LatentOptimalPathsBayesianDP.

Deep kernel learning (DKL) marries the uncertainty quantification of Gaussian processes (GPs) and the representational power of deep neural networks. However, training DKL is challenging and often leads to overfitting. Most notably, DKL often learns “non-local” kernels — incurring spurious correlations. To remedy this issue, we propose using amortized inducing points and a parameter-sharing scheme, which ties together the amortization and DKL networks. This design imposes an explicit dependency between the ELBO’s model fit and capacity terms. In turn, this prevents the former from dominating the optimization procedure and incurring the aforementioned spurious correlations. Extensive experiments show that our resulting method, *amortized varitional* DKL (AVDKL), i) consistently outperforms DKL and standard GPs for tabular data; ii) achieves significantly higher accuracy than DKL in node classification tasks; and iii) leads to substantially better accuracy and negative log-likelihood than DKL on CIFAR100.

Mixture variational distributions in black box variational inference (BBVI) have demonstrated impressive results in challenging density estimation tasks. However, currently scaling the number of mixture components can lead to a linear increase in the number of learnable parameters and a quadratic increase in inference time due to the evaluation of the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Our two key contributions address these limitations. First, we introduce the novel Multiple Importance Sampling Variational Autoencoder (MISVAE), which amortizes the mapping from input to mixture-parameter space using one-hot encodings. Fortunately, with MISVAE, each additional mixture component incurs a negligible increase in network parameters. Second, we construct two new estimators of the ELBO for mixtures in BBVI, enabling a tremendous reduction in inference time with marginal or even improved impact on performance. Collectively, our contributions enable scalability to hundreds of mixture components and provide superior estimation performance in shorter time, with fewer network parameters compared to previous Mixture VAEs. Experimenting with MISVAE, we achieve astonishing, SOTA results on MNIST. Furthermore, we empirically validate our estimators in other BBVI settings, including Bayesian phylogenetic inference, where we improve inference times for the SOTA mixture model on eight data sets.

High-probability analysis of stochastic first-order optimization methods under mild assumptions on the noise has been gaining a lot of attention in recent years. Typically, gradient clipping is one of the key algorithmic ingredients to derive good high-probability guarantees when the noise is heavy-tailed. However, if implemented naively, clipping can spoil the convergence of the popular methods for composite and distributed optimization (Prox-SGD/Parallel SGD) even in the absence of any noise. Due to this reason, many works on high-probability analysis consider only unconstrained non-distributed problems, and the existing results for composite/distributed problems do not include some important special cases (like strongly convex problems) and are not optimal. To address this issue, we propose new stochastic methods for composite and distributed optimization based on the clipping of stochastic gradient differences and prove tight high-probability convergence results (including nearly optimal ones) for the new methods. In addition, we also develop new methods for composite and distributed variational inequalities and analyze the high-probability convergence of these methods.

Despite not being designed for this purpose, the use of variational autoencoders (VAEs) has proven remarkably effective for disentangled representation learning (DRL). Recent research attributes this success to certain characteristics of the loss function that prevent latent space rotation, or hypothesize about the orthogonality properties of the decoder by drawing parallels with principal component analysis (PCA). This hypothesis, however, has only been tested experimentally for linear VAEs, and the theoretical justification still remains an open problem. Moreover, since real-world VAEs are often inherently non-linear due to the use of neural architectures, understanding DRL capabilities of real-world VAEs remains a critical task. Our work takes a step towards understanding disentanglement in real-world VAEs to theoretically establish how the orthogonality properties of the decoder promotes disentanglement in practical applications. Complementary to our theoretical contributions, our experimental results corroborate our analysis. Code is available at https://github.com/criticalml-uw/Disentanglement-in-VAE.