ICLR 2026 论文列表

International Conference on Learning Representations

录用类型

5,358篇论文

按官方录用论文列表统计,可能与会议公布的数字略有出入。

  • Oral
    2244.2%
  • Poster
    5,13495.8%

浏览全部论文

Bridging Fairness and Explainability: Can Input-Based Explanations Promote Fairness in Hate Speech Detection?

Yifan Wang, Mayank Jobanputra, Ji-Ung Lee, Soyoung Oh, Isabel Valera, Vera Demberg

展开摘要

Natural language processing (NLP) models often replicate or amplify social bias from training data, raising concerns about fairness. At the same time, their black-box nature makes it difficult for users to recognize biased predictions and for developers to effectively mitigate them. While some studies suggest that input-based explanations can help detect and mitigate bias, others question their reliability in ensuring fairness. Existing research on explainability in fair NLP has been predominantly qualitative, with limited large-scale quantitative analysis. In this work, we conduct the first systematic study of the relationship between explainability and fairness in hate speech detection, focusing on both encoder- and decoder-only models. We examine three key dimensions: (1) identifying biased predictions, (2) selecting fair models, and (3) mitigating bias during model training. Our findings show that input-based explanations can effectively detect biased predictions and serve as useful supervision for reducing bias during training, but they are unreliable for selecting fair models among candidates. Our code is available at https://github.com/Ewanwong/fairness_x_explainability.

Poster
Stage-wise Dynamics of Classifier-Free Guidance in Diffusion Models

Cheng Jin, Qitan Shi, Yuantao Gu

展开摘要

Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) is widely used to improve conditional fidelity in diffusion models, but its impact on sampling dynamics remains poorly understood. Prior studies, often restricted to unimodal conditional distributions or simplified cases, provide only a partial picture. We analyze CFG under multimodal conditionals and show that the sampling process unfolds in three successive stages. In the Direction Shift stage, guidance accelerates movement toward the weighted mean, introducing initialization bias and norm growth. In the Mode Separation stage, local dynamics remain largely neutral, but the inherited bias suppresses weaker modes, reducing global diversity. In the Concentration stage, guidance amplifies within-mode contraction, diminishing fine-grained variability. This unified view explains a widely observed phenomenon: stronger guidance improves semantic alignment but inevitably reduces diversity. Experiments support these predictions, showing that early strong guidance erodes global diversity, while late strong guidance suppresses fine-grained variation. Moreover, our theory naturally suggests a time-varying guidance schedule, and empirical results confirm that it consistently improves both quality and diversity.

Poster
DeepWeightFlow: Re-Basined Flow Matching for Generating Neural Network Weights

Saumya Gupta, Scott Biggs, Moritz Laber, Zohair Shafi, Robin Walters, Ayan Paul

展开摘要

Building efficient and effective generative models for neural network weights has been a research focus of significant interest that faces challenges posed by the high-dimensional weight spaces of modern neural networks and their symmetries. Several prior generative models are limited to generating partial neural network weights, particularly for larger models, such as ResNet and ViT. Those that do generate complete weights struggle with generation speed or require finetuning of the generated models. In this work, we present \ours, a Flow Matching model that operates directly in weight space to generate diverse and high-accuracy neural network weights for a variety of architectures, neural network sizes, and data modalities. The neural networks generated by \ours do not require fine-tuning to perform well and can scale to large networks. We apply Git Re-Basin and TransFusion for neural network canonicalization in the context of generative weight models to account for the impact of neural network permutation symmetries and to improve generation efficiency for larger model sizes. The generated networks excel at transfer learning, and ensembles of hundreds of neural networks can be generated in minutes, far exceeding the efficiency of diffusion-based methods. DeepWeightFlow models pave the way for more efficient and scalable generation of diverse sets of neural networks.

Poster
Cancer-Myth: Evaluating Large Language Models on Patient Questions with False Presuppositions

Wang Bill Zhu, Tian-qi Chen, Xinyan Velocity Yu, Ching Ying Lin, Jade Law, Mazen Jizzini, Jorge J. Nieva, Ruishan Liu, Robin Jia

展开摘要

Cancer patients are increasingly turning to large language models (LLMs) for medical information, making it critical to assess how well these models handle complex, personalized questions. However, current medical benchmarks focus on medical exams or consumer-searched questions and do not evaluate LLMs on real patient questions with patient details. In this paper, we first have three hematology-oncology physicians evaluate cancer-related questions drawn from real patients. While LLM responses are generally accurate, the models frequently fail to recognize or address false presuppositions} in the questions, posing risks to safe medical decision-making. To study this limitation systematically, we introduce Cancer-Myth, an expert-verified adversarial dataset of 585 cancer-related questions with false presuppositions. On this benchmark, no frontier LLM---including GPT-5, Gemini-2.5-Pro, and Claude-4-Sonnet---corrects these false presuppositions more than $43\%$ of the time. To study mitigation strategies, we further construct a 150-question Cancer-Myth-NFP set, in which physicians confirm the absence of false presuppositions. We find typical mitigation strategies, such as adding precautionary prompts with GEPA optimization, can raise accuracy on Cancer-Myth to $80\%$, but at the cost of misidentifying presuppositions in $41\%$ of Cancer-Myth-NFP questions and causing a $10\%$ relative performance drop on other medical benchmarks. These findings highlight a critical gap in the reliability of LLMs, show that prompting alone is not a reliable remedy for false presuppositions, and underscore the need for more robust safeguards in medical AI systems.

Poster
Towards Multimodal Time Series Anomaly Detection with Semantic Alignment and Condensed Interaction

Shiyan Hu, Jianxin Jin, Yang Shu, Peng Chen, Bin Yang, Chenjuan Guo

展开摘要

Time series anomaly detection plays a critical role in many dynamic systems. However, previous approaches have primarily relied on unimodal numerical data, overlooking the importance of complementary information from other modalities. In this paper, we propose a novel multimodal time series anomaly detection model (MindTS) that focuses on addressing two key challenges: (1) how to achieve semantically consistent alignment across heterogeneous multimodal data, and (2) how to filter out redundant modality information to enhance cross-modal interaction effectively. To address the first challenge, we propose Fine-grained Time-text Semantic Alignment. It integrates exogenous and endogenous text information through cross-view text fusion and a multimodal alignment mechanism, achieving semantically consistent alignment between time and text modalities. For the second challenge, we introduce Content Condenser Reconstruction, which filters redundant information within the aligned text modality and performs cross-modal reconstruction to enable interaction. Extensive experiments on six real-world multimodal datasets demonstrate that the proposed MindTS achieves competitive or superior results compared to existing methods.

Poster
AutoCodeBench: Large Language Models are Automatic Code Benchmark Generators

Changzhi Zhou, Ao Liu, Yuchi Deng, Zhiying Zeng, Tao Zhang, Haotian Zhu, Jianwei Cai, Yue Mao, Chenchen Zhang, Lingyun Tan, ZiyanXU, Bohui Zhai, HengyiLIu, Speed Zhu, Wiggin Zhou, Fengzong Lian

展开摘要

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance across diverse domains, with code generation emerging as a particularly prominent application. However, existing benchmarks designed to evaluate code generation exhibit several critical limitations. First, most rely on manual annotations, which are time-consuming and difficult to scale across programming languages and problem complexities. Second, the majority focus primarily on Python, while the few multilingual benchmarks suffer from limited difficulty and imbalanced language coverage. To overcome these challenges, we present AutoCodeGen, an automated framework for constructing high-difficulty, multilingual code generation datasets without manual annotations. Our approach guarantees correctness and completeness by generating test inputs with LLMs, obtaining test outputs within a multilingual sandbox, and further enhancing quality through reverse problem generation and multi-stage filtering. Based on this novel method, we introduce AutoCodeBench, a large-scale benchmark suite spanning 20 programming languages with balanced coverage. AutoCodeBench is designed to rigorously evaluate LLMs on diverse, challenging, and realistic multilingual programming tasks. Extensive experiments reveal that even state-of-the-art models struggle on these tasks, particularly in low-resource languages. Besides, we release complementary training and evaluation resources, including a large-scale, verifiable multilingual instruction dataset generated via the same pipeline, as well as a multilingual sandbox with high-concurrency support. We hope these contributions will provide a solid foundation for future research and inspire the community to explore more automatic and scalable approaches to multilingual code generation, with a particular emphasis on advancing progress in low-resource languages.

Poster
UltraViCo: Breaking Extrapolation Limits in Video Diffusion Transformers

Min Zhao, Hongzhou Zhu, Yingze Wang, Bokai Yan, Jintao Zhang, Guande He, Ling Yang, Chongxuan Li, Jun Zhu

展开摘要

Despite advances, video diffusion transformers still struggle to generalize beyond their training length, a challenge we term video length extrapolation. We identify two failure modes: model-specific periodic content repetition and a universal quality degradation. Prior works attempt to solve repetition via positional encodings, overlooking quality degradation and achieving only limited extrapolation. In this paper, we revisit this challenge from a more fundamental view—attention maps, which directly govern how context influences outputs. We identify that both failure modes arise from a unified cause: attention dispersion, where tokens beyond the training window dilute learned attention patterns. This leads to quality degradation and repetition emerges as a special case when this dispersion becomes structured into periodic attention patterns, induced by harmonic properties of positional encodings. Building on this insight, we propose UltraViCo, a training-free, plug-and-play method that suppresses attention for tokens beyond the training window via a constant decay factor. By jointly addressing both failure modes, we outperform a broad set of baselines largely across models and extrapolation ratios, pushing the extrapolation limit from $~2\times$ to $4\times$. Remarkably, it improves Dynamic Degree and Imaging Quality by 233\% and 40.5\% over the previous best method at $4\times$ extrapolation. Furthermore, our method generalizes seamlessly to downstream tasks such as controllable video synthesis and editing.

Poster
DiMeR: Disentangled Mesh Reconstruction Model with Normal-only Geometry Training

Lutao Jiang, Jiantao Lin, Kanghao Chen, Wenhang Ge, Xin Yang, Yifan Jiang, Yuanhuiyi Lyu, Xu Zheng, Li Jing, Yinchuan Li, Ying-Cong Chen

展开摘要

We propose DiMeR, a novel geometry-texture disentangled feed-forward model with 3D supervision for sparse-view mesh reconstruction. Existing methods confront two persistent obstacles: (i) textures can conceal geometric errors, i.e., visually plausible images can be rendered even with wrong geometry, producing multiple ambiguous optimization objectives in geometry-texture mixed solution space for similar objects; and (ii) prevailing mesh extraction methods are redundant, unstable, and lack 3D supervision. To solve these challenges, we rethink the inductive bias for mesh reconstruction. First, we disentangle the unified geometry-texture solution space, where a single input admits multiple feasible solutions, into geometry and texture spaces individually. Specifically, given that normal maps are strictly consistent with geometry and accurately capture surface variations, the normal maps serve as the only input for geometry prediction in DiMeR, while the texture is estimated from RGB images. Second, we streamline the algorithm of mesh extraction by eliminating modules with low performance/cost ratios and redesigning regularization losses with 3D supervision. Notably, DiMeR still accepts raw RGB images as input by leveraging foundation models for normal prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DiMeR generalises across sparse‑views-3D, single‑image-3D, and text‑to‑3D tasks, consistently outperforming baselines. On the GSO and OmniObject3D datasets, DiMeR significantly reduces Chamfer Distance by more than 30%.

Poster
Scaling Sequence-to-Sequence Generative Neural Rendering

Shikun Liu, Kam Woh Ng, Wonbong Jang, Jiadong Guo, Junlin Han, Haozhe Liu, Yiannis Douratsos, Juan Camilo Perez, Zijian Zhou, Khanh Chi Phung, Tao Xiang, Juan-Manuel Perez-Rua

展开摘要

We present Kaleido, a family of generative models designed for photorealistic, unified object- and scene-level neural rendering. Kaleido is driven by the principle of treating 3D as a specialised sub-domain of video, which we formulate purely as a sequence-to-sequence image synthesis task. Through a systemic study of scaling sequence-to-sequence generative neural rendering, we introduce key architectural innovations that enable our model to: i) perform generative view synthesis without explicit 3D representations; ii) generate any number of 6-DoF target views conditioned on any number of reference views via a masked autoregressive framework; and iii) seamlessly unify 3D and video modelling within a single decoder-only rectified flow transformer. Within this unified framework, Kaleido leverages large-scale video data for pre-training, which significantly improves spatial consistency and reduces reliance on scarce, camera-labelled 3D datasets --- all without any architectural modifications. Kaleido sets a new state-of-the-art on a range of view synthesis benchmarks. Its zero-shot performance substantially outperforms other generative methods in few-view settings, and, for the first time, matches the quality of per-scene optimisation methods in many-view settings. For supplementary materials, including Kaleido's generated renderings and videos, please refer to our website: https://shikun.io/projects/kaleido.

Poster
Talk, Evaluate, Diagnose: User-aware Agent Evaluation with Automated Error Analysis

Penny Chong, Harshavardhan Abichandani, Jiyuan SHEN, Atin Ghosh, Min Pyae Moe, Yifan Mai, Daniel Dahlmeier

展开摘要

Agent applications are increasingly adopted to automate workflows across diverse tasks. However, due to the heterogeneous domains they operate in, it is challenging to create a scalable evaluation framework. Prior work each employ their own methods to determine task success, such as database lookups, regex match, etc., adding complexity to the development of a unified agent evaluation approach. Moreover, they do not systematically account for the user’s role nor expertise in the interaction, providing incomplete insights into agent’s performance. We argue that effective agent evaluation goes beyond correctness alone, incorporating conversation quality, efficiency and systematic diagnosis of agent errors. To address this, we introduce the TED framework (Talk, Evaluate, Diagnose). (1) Talk: We leverage reusable, generic expert and non-expert user persona templates for user-agent interaction. (2) Evaluate: We adapt existing datasets by representing subgoals—such as tool signatures, and responses—as natural language grading notes, evaluated automatically with LLM-as-a-judge. We propose new metrics that capture both turn efficiency and intermediate progress of the agent complementing the user-aware setup. (3) Diagnose: We introduce an automated error analysis tool that analyzes the inconsistencies of the judge and agents, uncovering common errors, and providing actionable feedback for agent improvement. We show that our TED framework reveals new insights regarding agent performance across models and user expertise levels. We also demonstrate potential gains in agent performance with peaks of 8-10% on our proposed metrics after incorporating the identified error remedies into the agent’s design.

Poster
Decoding Open-Ended Information Seeking Goals from Eye Movements in Reading

Cfir Avraham Hadar, Omer Shubi, Yoav Meiri, Amit Heshes, Yevgeni Berzak

展开摘要

When reading, we often have specific information that interests us in a text. For example, you might be reading this paper because you are curious about LLMs for eye movements in reading, the experimental design, or perhaps you wonder ``This sounds like science fiction. Does it actually work?''. More broadly, in daily life, people approach texts with any number of text-specific goals that guide their reading behavior. In this work, we ask, for the first time, whether open-ended reading goals can be automatically decoded solely from eye movements in reading. To address this question, we introduce goal decoding tasks and evaluation frameworks using large-scale eye tracking for reading data in English with hundreds of text-specific information seeking tasks. We develop and compare several discriminative and generative multimodal text and eye movements LLMs for these tasks. Our experiments show considerable success on the task of selecting the correct goal among several options, and even progress towards free-form textual reconstruction of the precise goal formulation. These results open the door for further scientific investigation of goal driven reading, as well as the development of educational and assistive technologies that will rely on real-time decoding of reader goals from their eye movements.

Poster
Genie Envisioner: A Unified World Foundation Platform for Robotic Manipulation

Yue Liao, Pengfei Zhou, Siyuan Huang, Donglin Yang, Shengcong Chen, Yuxin Jiang, Yue Hu, Si Liu, Jianlan Luo, Liliang Chen, Shuicheng YAN, Maoqing Yao, Guanghui Ren

展开摘要

We introduce Genie Envisioner (GE), a unified world foundation platform for robotic manipulation that jointly learns visual representations and action policies within a single video-generative framework. At its core, GE-Base is a large-scale instruction-conditioned video diffusion model that captures the spatial, temporal, and semantic dynamics of real-world robotic interactions in a structured latent space. Building on this foundation, GE-Act employs a lightweight flow-matching decoder to map latent representations into executable action trajectories, enabling precise and generalizable policy inference across diverse embodiments with minimal supervision. Trained on over 1 million manipulation episodes, GE supports both short- and long-horizon tasks, and generalizes across embodiments. All code, models, and benchmarks will be released publicly.

Poster
VisuRiddles: Fine-grained Perception is a Primary Bottleneck for Multimodal Large Language Models in Abstract Visual Reasoning

Hao Yan, Xingchen Liu, Hao Wang, Zhenbiao Cao, Handong Zheng, Liang Yin, Xinxing Su, Zihao Chen, Jihao Wu, Minghui Liao, CHAO WENG, Wei Chen, Yuliang Liu, Xiang Bai

展开摘要

Recent strides in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated significant progress in many reasoning tasks, but they still fail in Abstract Visual Reasoning (AVR) tasks. Our experimental findings indicate that the core bottleneck lies not only in the reasoning capabilities of MLLMs but more critically in their absence of fine-grained perception. To address this issue, we present VisuRiddles, a dedicated resource for AVR research. It consists of (i) a benchmark, collected from real-world data, for the systematic evaluation of MLLMs' AVR capabilities, and (ii) a synthesizer, which automatically generates AVR instances enriched with perceptual descriptions and reasoning chains, enabling supervised training and deeper investigation. Building on VisuRiddles, we propose a two-stage training paradigm that progressively enhances perceptual ability and strengthens reasoning, producing the Perception-Augmented Visual Reasoner (PAVR). Experiments demonstrate that PAVR unifies perception and reasoning, substantially outperforming both open-source and commercial MLLMs, thereby underscoring fine-grained perception as the primary bottleneck in AVR.

Poster
Variational Reasoning for Language Models

Xiangxin Zhou, Zichen Liu, Haonan Wang, Chao Du, Min Lin, Chongxuan Li, Liang Wang, Tianyu Pang

展开摘要

We introduce a **variational reasoning** framework for language models that treats thinking traces as latent variables and optimizes them through variational inference. Starting from the evidence lower bound (ELBO), we extend it to a multi-trace objective for tighter bounds and propose a forward-KL formulation that stabilizes the training of the variational posterior. We further show that rejection sampling finetuning and binary-reward RL, including GRPO, can be interpreted as local forward-KL objectives, where *an implicit weighting by model accuracy* naturally arises from the derivation and reveals a previously unnoticed bias toward easier questions. We empirically validate our method on the Qwen 2.5 and Qwen 3 model families across a wide range of reasoning tasks. Overall, our work provides a principled probabilistic perspective that unifies variational inference with RL-style methods and yields stable objectives for improving the reasoning ability of language models.

Poster
Risk Phase Transitions in Spiked Regression: Alignment Driven Benign and Catastrophic Overfitting

Jiping Li, Rishi Sonthalia

展开摘要

This paper analyzes the generalization error of minimum-norm interpolating solutions in linear regression using spiked covariance data models. The paper characterizes how varying spike strengths and target-spike alignments can affect risk, especially in overparameterized settings. The study presents an exact expression for the generalization error, leading to a comprehensive classification of benign, tempered, and catastrophic overfitting regimes based on spike strength, the aspect ratio $c=d/n$ (particularly as $c \to \infty$), and target alignment. Notably, in well-specified aligned problems, increasing spike strength can surprisingly induce catastrophic overfitting before achieving benign overfitting. The paper also reveals that target-spike alignment is not always advantageous, identifying specific, sometimes counterintuitive, conditions for its benefit or detriment. Alignment with the spike being detrimental is empirically demonstrated to persist in nonlinear models.

Poster
FlowNIB: An Information Bottleneck Analysis of Bidirectional vs. Unidirectional Language Models

Md Kowsher, Nusrat Jahan Prottasha, Shiyun Xu, Shetu Mohanto, Niloofar Yousefi, Ozlem Garibay, Chen Chen

展开摘要

Bidirectional language models (LMs) consistently show stronger context understanding than unidirectional models, yet the theoretical reason remains unclear. We present a simple information bottleneck (IB) perspective: bidirectional representations preserve more mutual information (MI) about both the input and the target, yielding richer features for downstream tasks. We adopt a layer–wise view and hypothesize that, at comparable capacity, bidirectional layers retain more useful signal than unidirectional ones. To test this claim empirically, we present Flow Neural Information Bottleneck (FlowNIB), a lightweight, post-hoc framework capable of estimating comparable mutual information values for individual layers in LMs, quantifying how much mutual information each layer carries for a dataset. FlowNIB takes three inputs—(i) the original LM’s inputs/dataset, (ii) ground–truth labels, and (iii) layer activations—simultaneously estimates the mutual information for both the input–layer and layer–label pairs. Empirically, bidirectional LM layers exhibit higher mutual information than similar—and even larger—unidirectional LMs. As a result, bidirectional LMs outperform unidirectional LMs across extensive experiments on NLU benchmarks (e.g., GLUE), commonsense reasoning, and regression tasks, demonstrating superior context understanding.

Poster
AP-OOD: Attention Pooling for Out-of- Distribution Detection

Claus Hofmann, Christian Huber, Bernhard Lehner, Daniel Klotz, Sepp Hochreiter, Werner Zellinger

展开摘要

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, which maps high-dimensional data into a scalar OOD score, is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning models. A key challenge in recent research is how to effectively leverage and aggregate token embeddings from language models to obtain the OOD score. In this work, we propose AP-OOD, a novel OOD detection method for natural language that goes beyond simple average-based aggregation by exploiting token-level information. AP-OOD is a semi-supervised approach that flexibly interpolates between unsupervised and supervised settings, enabling the use of limited auxiliary outlier data. Empirically, AP-OOD sets a new state of the art in OOD detection for text: in the unsupervised setting, it reduces the FPR95 (false positive rate at 95% true positives) from 27.77% to 5.91% on XSUM summarization, and from 75.19% to 68.13% on WMT15 En–Fr translation.

Poster
WebGen-Agent: Enhancing Interactive Website Generation with Multi-Level Feedback and Step-Level Reinforcement Learning

Zimu Lu, Houxing Ren, Yunqiao Yang, Ke Wang, Zhuofan Zong, Junting Pan, Mingjie Zhan, Hongsheng Li

展开摘要

Agent systems powered by large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on repository-level code-generation tasks. However, for tasks such as website codebase generation, which depend heavily on visual effects and user-interaction feedback, current code agents rely only on simple code execution for feedback and verification. This approach fails to capture the actual quality of the generated code. In this paper, we propose WebGen-Agent, a novel website-generation agent that leverages comprehensive and multi-level visual feedback to iteratively generate and refine the website codebase. Detailed and expressive text descriptions and suggestions regarding the screenshots and GUI-agent testing of the websites are generated by a visual language model (VLM), together with scores that quantify their quality. The screenshot and GUI-agent scores are further integrated with a backtracking and select-best mechanism, enhancing the performance of the agent. Utilizing the accurate visual scores inherent in the WebGen-Agent workflow, we further introduce Step-GRPO with Screenshot and GUI-Agent Feedback to improve the ability of LLMs to act as the agent-engine model. By using the screenshot and GUI-agent scores at each step as the reward in Step-GRPO, we provide a dense and reliable process supervision signal, which effectively improves the model's website-generation ability. On the WebGen-Bench dataset, WebGen-Agent increases the accuracy of Claude 3.5 Sonnet from 26.4\% to 51.9\% and its appearance score from 3.0 to 3.9, outperforming the previous state-of-the-art agent system. Additionally, our training approach increases the accuracy of Qwen2.5-Coder-7B-Instruct from 38.9\% to 45.4\% and raises the appearance score from 3.4 to 3.7.

Poster
Q-Learning with Fine-Grained Gap-Dependent Regret

Haochen Zhang, Zhong Zheng, Lingzhou Xue

展开摘要

We study fine-grained gap-dependent regret bounds for model-free reinforcement learning in episodic tabular Markov Decision Processes. Existing model-free algorithms achieve minimax worst-case regret, but their gap-dependent bounds remain coarse and fail to fully capture the structure of suboptimality gaps. We address this limitation by establishing fine-grained gap-dependent regret bounds for both UCB-based and non-UCB-based algorithms. In the UCB-based setting, we develop a novel analytical framework that explicitly separates the analysis of optimal and suboptimal state-action pairs, yielding the first fine-grained regret upper bound for UCB-Hoeffding (Jin et al., 2018). To highlight the generality of this framework, we introduce ULCB-Hoeffding, a new UCB-based algorithm inspired by AMB (Xu et al., 2021) but with a simplified structure, which enjoys fine-grained regret guarantees and empirically outperforms AMB. In the non-UCB-based setting, we revisit the only known algorithm AMB, and identify two key issues in its algorithm design and analysis: improper truncation in the $Q$-updates and violation of the martingale difference condition in its concentration argument. We propose a refined version of AMB that addresses these issues, establishing the first rigorous fine-grained gap-dependent regret for a non-UCB-based method, with experiments demonstrating improved performance over AMB.

Poster
Extreme Weather Nowcasting via Local Precipitation Pattern Prediction

Chang hoon Song, Teng Yuan Chang, Youngjoon Hong

展开摘要

Accurate forecasting of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall or storms is critical for risk management and disaster mitigation. Although high-resolution radar observations have spurred extensive research on nowcasting models, precipitation nowcasting remains particularly challenging due to pronounced spatial locality, intricate fine-scale rainfall structures, and variability in forecasting horizons. While recent diffusion-based generative ensembles show promising results, they are computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time applications. In contrast, deterministic models are computationally efficient but remain biased toward normal rainfall. Furthermore, the benchmark datasets commonly used in prior studies are themselves skewed--either dominated by ordinary rainfall events or restricted to extreme rainfall episodes--thereby hindering general applicability in real-world settings. In this paper, we propose exPreCast, an efficient deterministic framework for generating finely detailed radar forecasts, and introduce a newly constructed balanced radar dataset from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which encompasses both ordinary precipitation and extreme events. Our model integrates local spatiotemporal attention, a texture-preserving cubic dual upsampling decoder, and a temporal extractor to flexibly adjust forecasting horizons. Experiments on established benchmarks (SEVIR and MeteoNet) as well as on the balanced KMA dataset demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, delivering accurate and reliable nowcasts across both normal and extreme rainfall regimes.

Poster