ICLR 2026 论文列表

International Conference on Learning Representations

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5,358篇论文

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  • Oral
    2244.2%
  • Poster
    5,13495.8%

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Spilled Energy in Large Language Models

Adrian Robert Minut, Hazem Dewidar, Iacopo Masi

展开摘要

We reinterpret the final Large Language Model (LLM) softmax classifier as an Energy-Based Model (EBM), decomposing the sequence-to-sequence probability chain into multiple interacting EBMs at inference. This principled approach allows us to track “energy spills” during decoding, which we empirically show correlate with factual errors, biases, and failures. Similar to Orgad et al. (2025), our method localizes the exact answer token and subsequently tests for hallucinations. Crucially, however, we achieve this without requiring trained probe classifiers or activation ablations. Instead, we introduce two completely training-free metrics derived directly from output logits: **spilled energy**, which captures the discrepancy between energy values across consecutive generation steps that should theoretically match, and **marginalized energy**, which is measurable at a single step. Evaluated on nine benchmarks across state-of-the-art LLMs (including LLaMA, Mistral, and Gemma) and on synthetic algebraic operations (Qwen3), our approach demonstrates robust, competitive hallucination detection and cross-task generalization. Notably, these results hold for both pretrained and instruction-tuned variants without introducing any training overhead.

Poster
SDErasure: Concept-Specific Trajectory Shifting for Concept Erasure via Adaptive Diffusion Classifier

Fengyuan Miao, Shancheng Fang, Lingyun Yu, Yadong Qu, Yuhao Sun, Xiaorui Wang, Hongtao Xie

展开摘要

Concept erasure methods have proven effective in mitigating the potential for text‑to‑image diffusion models to produce harmful content. Nevertheless, prevailing methods based on post fine-tuning introduce substantial disruption to the original model’s parameter distribution and suffer from excessive model intrusiveness in two dimensions. (1) Images generated under erased concepts are perceptually aberrant. (2) Images generated under unrelated concepts exhibit pronounced quality degradation. We attribute these limitations to applying a uniform strategy to erase diverse concepts, failing to account for concept-specific generative mechanisms. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis, we identify that the generative process of each concept hinges on a narrow subset of critical timesteps. This insight motivates a targeted intervention strategy that enables precise and minimally invasive concept erasure. Therefore, we introduce $\textbf{SDErasure}$, a novel training framework for concept-specific erasure via adaptive trajectory shifting. First, a Step Selection algorithm that utilizes a diffusion classifier is proposed to guide the model in pinpointing the key timesteps associated with the undesired concept’s generation. Second, a Score Rematching loss is introduced to align the model’s predicted score function with that of anchor concepts, extending its applicability to both anchor-free erasing and anchor-based altering. Third, a Quality Regulation consisting of early-preserve loss and concept-retain loss is introduced to maintain the model's generative quality along two dimensions. Empirical results demonstrate that SDErasure achieves state-of-the-art concept erasure performance, reducing FID from 9.51 to 6.74 while effectively eliminating the target concept.

Poster
Occupancy Reward Shaping: Improving Credit Assignment for Offline Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning

Aravind Venugopal, Jiayu Chen, Xudong Wu, Chongyi Zheng, Benjamin Eysenbach, Jeff Schneider

展开摘要

While offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) provides a simple recipe to train generalist policies from large unlabeled datasets, Offline GCRL agents trained with sparse rewards typically struggle on long-horizon tasks. Manually designing task-specific reward functions undermines the simplicity, scalability and generality of this paradigm. Moreover, prior approaches to learn rewards for effective credit assignment fail to adequately capture goal-reaching information as tasks scale in complexity. To address this gap, we propose $\textrm{\textbf{Occupancy Reward Shaping(ORS)}}$, a novel reward-shaping approach that leverages a learned occupancy measure; a distribution that naturally captures complex long-horizon temporal dependencies between states; and distills goal-reaching information from the occupancy measure into a general-purpose reward function for effective credit assignment. We demonstrate that ORS achieves a $\mathbf{2.3\times}$ improvement in performance on average over its base RL algorithm across a diverse set of long-horizon locomotion and manipulation tasks and outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods.

Poster
Late-to-Early Training: LET LLMs Learn Earlier, So Faster and Better

Ji Zhao, Shitong Shao, Yufei Gu, Xun Zhou, liang xiang, Zeke Xie

展开摘要

As Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve remarkable empirical success through scaling model and data size, pretraining has become increasingly critical yet computationally prohibitive, hindering rapid development. Despite the availability of numerous pretrained LLMs developed at significant computational expense, a fundamental real-world question remains underexplored: Can we leverage existing small pretrained models to accelerate the training of larger models? In this paper, we propose a Late-to-Early Training (LET) paradigm that enables LLMs to explicitly learn later knowledge in earlier steps and earlier layers. The core idea is to guide the early layers of an LLM during early training using representations from the late layers of a pretrained (i.e. late training phase) model. We identify two key mechanisms that drive LET's effectiveness: late-to-early-step learning and late-to-early-layer learning. These mechanisms significantly accelerate training convergence while robustly enhancing both language modeling capabilities and downstream task performance, enabling faster training with superior performance. Extensive experiments on 1.4B and 7B parameter models demonstrate LET's efficiency and effectiveness. Notably, when training a 1.4B LLM on the Pile dataset, our method achieves up to 1.6× speedup with nearly 5% improvement in downstream task accuracy compared to standard training, even when using a pretrained model with 10x fewer parameters than the target model.

Poster
Diverse Text-to-Image Generation via Contrastive Noise Optimization

Byungjun Kim, Soobin Um, Jong Chul Ye

展开摘要

Text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models have demonstrated impressive performance in generating high-fidelity images, largely enabled by text-guided inference. However, this advantage often comes with a critical drawback: limited diversity, as outputs tend to collapse into similar modes under strong text guidance. Existing approaches typically optimize intermediate latents or text conditions during inference, but these methods deliver only modest gains or remain sensitive to hyperparameter tuning. In this work, we introduce Contrastive Noise Optimization, a simple yet effective method that addresses the diversity issue from a distinct perspective. Unlike prior techniques that adapt intermediate latents, our approach shapes the initial noise to promote diverse outputs. Specifically, we develop a contrastive loss defined in the Tweedie data space and optimize a batch of noise latents. Our contrastive optimization repels instances within the batch to maximize diversity while keeping them anchored to a reference sample to preserve fidelity. We further provide theoretical insights into the mechanism of this preprocessing to substantiate its effectiveness. Extensive experiments across multiple T2I backbones demonstrate that our approach achieves a superior quality-diversity Pareto frontier while remaining robust to hyperparameter choices.

Poster
Context Learning for Multi-Agent Discussion

Xingyuan Hua, Sheng Yue, Xinyi Li, Yizhe Zhao, Jinrui Zhang, Ju Ren

展开摘要

Multi-Agent Discussion (MAD) has garnered increasing attention very recently, where multiple LLM instances collaboratively solve problems via structured discussion. However, we find that current MAD methods easily suffer from discussion inconsistency—LLMs fail to reach a coherent solution—due to the misalignment between their individual contexts. In this paper, we introduce a multi-LLM context learning method (M2CL) that learns a context generator for each agent, capable of dynamically generating context instructions per discussion round via automatic information organization and refinement. Specifically, inspired by our theoretical insights on the context instruction, M2CL trains the generators to control context coherence and output discrepancies via a carefully crafted self-adaptive mechanism. It enables LLMs to avoid premature convergence on “majority noise” and progressively reach the correct consensus. We evaluate M2CL on challenging tasks, including academic reasoning, embodied tasks, and mobile control. The results show that the performance of M2CL significantly surpasses existing methods by 20\%--50\%, while enjoying favorable transferability and computational efficiency.\footnote{Code is available at \url{https://github.com/HansenHua/M2CL-ICLR26}.}

Poster
Context parroting: A simple but tough-to-beat baseline for foundation models in scientific machine learning

Yuanzhao Zhang, William Gilpin

展开摘要

Recent time-series foundation models exhibit strong abilities to predict physical systems. These abilities include zero-shot forecasting, in which a model forecasts future states of a system given only a short trajectory as context, without knowledge of the underlying physics. Here, we show that foundation models often forecast through a simple parroting strategy, and when they are not parroting they exhibit some shared failure modes such as converging to the mean. As a result, a naive context parroting model that copies directly from the context scores higher than leading time-series foundation models on predicting a diverse range of dynamical systems, including low-dimensional chaos, turbulence, coupled oscillators, and electrocardiograms, at a tiny fraction of the computational cost. We draw a parallel between context parroting and induction heads, which explains recent works showing that large language models can often be repurposed for time series forecasting. Our dynamical systems perspective also ties the scaling between forecast accuracy and context length to the fractal dimension of the underlying chaotic attractor, providing insight into previously observed in-context neural scaling laws. By revealing the performance gaps and failure modes of current time-series foundation models, context parroting can guide the design of future foundation models and help identify in-context learning strategies beyond parroting.

Poster
USTBench: Benchmarking and Dissecting Spatiotemporal Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs as Urban Agents

Siqi Lai, Yansong Ning, Zirui Yuan, Zhixi Chen, Hao Liu

展开摘要

Large language models (LLMs) have shown emerging potential in spatiotemporal reasoning, making them promising candidates for building urban agents that support diverse urban downstream applications. Despite these benefits, existing studies primarily focus on evaluating urban LLM agent on outcome-level metrics (e.g., prediction accuracy, traffic efficiency), offering limited insight into their underlying reasoning processes. As a result, the strengths and limitations of urban LLM agents in spatiotemporal reasoning remain poorly understood. To this end, we introduce USTBench, the first benchmark to evaluate LLMs’ spatiotemporal reasoning abilities as urban agents across four decomposed dimensions: spatiotemporal understanding, forecasting, planning, and reflection. Specifically, USTBench supports five diverse urban decision-making and four spatiotemporal prediction tasks, all running within our constructed interactive city environment UAgentEnv. The benchmark includes 62,466 structured QA pairs for process-based evaluation and standardized end-to-end task assessments, enabling fine-grained diagnostics and broad task-level comparison across diverse urban scenarios. Through extensive evaluation of fourteen leading LLMs, we reveal that although LLMs show promising potential across various urban downstream tasks, they still struggle in long-horizon planning and reflective adaptation in dynamic urban contexts. Notably, recent advanced reasoning models (e.g., DeepSeek-R1) trained on general logic or mathematical problems do not consistently outperform non-reasoning LLMs. This discrepancy highlights the need for domain-specialized adaptation methods to enhance urban spatiotemporal reasoning. Overall, USTBench provides a foundation to build more adaptive and effective LLM-based urban agents and broad smart city applications. Our project is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/USTBench.

Poster
Self-Destructive Language Models

Yuhui Wang, Rongyi Zhu, Ting Wang

展开摘要

Harmful fine-tuning attacks represent a major threat to the security of large language models (LLMs), allowing adversaries to compromise safety guardrails with minimal harmful data. While existing defenses attempt to reinforce LLM alignment, they fail to address models' inherent `trainability' on harmful data, leaving them vulnerable to stronger attacks with increased learning rates or larger harmful datasets. To overcome this limitation, we introduce SEAM, a novel alignment-enhancing defense that transforms LLMs into self-destructive models with intrinsic resilience to misalignment attempts. Specifically, these models retain their capabilities for legitimate tasks while exhibiting substantial performance degradation when fine-tuned on harmful data. The protection is achieved through a novel loss function that couples the optimization trajectories of benign and harmful data, enhanced with adversarial gradient ascent to amplify the self-destructive effect. To enable practical training, we develop an efficient Hessian-free gradient estimate with theoretical error bounds. Extensive evaluation across LLMs and datasets demonstrates that SEAM creates a no-win situation for adversaries: the self-destructive models achieve state-of-the-art robustness against low-intensity attacks and undergo catastrophic performance collapse under high-intensity attacks, rendering them effectively unusable. The code is available: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/seam-5C7E (warning: this paper contains potentially harmful content generated by LLMs.)

Poster
Riemannian Optimization on Relaxed Indicator Matrix Manifold

Jh Yuan, Fangyuan Xie, Feiping Nie, Xuelong Li

展开摘要

The indicator matrix plays an important role in machine learning, but optimizing it is an NP-hard problem. We propose a new relaxation of the indicator matrix and compared with other existing relaxations, it can flexibly incorporate class information. We prove that this relaxation forms a manifold, which we call the Relaxed Indicator Matrix Manifold (RIM manifold). Based on Riemannian geometry, we develop a Riemannian toolbox for optimization on the RIM manifold. Specifically, we provide several methods of Retraction, including a fast Retraction method to obtain geodesics. We point out that the RIM manifold is a generalization of the double stochastic manifold, and it is much faster than existing methods on the double stochastic manifold, which has a complexity of \( \mathcal{O}(n^3) \), while RIM manifold optimization is \( \mathcal{O}(n) \) and often yields better results. We conducted extensive experiments, including image denoising, with millions of variables to support our conclusion, and applied the RIM manifold to Ratio Cut, we provide a rigorous convergence proof and achieve clustering results that outperform the state-of-the-art methods. Our Code is presented in Appendix H.

Poster
HiddenEcho: Mitigating Noise Amplification in Differentially Private LLMs with Hidden-State Correction

Wenhao Li, Kunhao Li, Lei Yang

展开摘要

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has driven the adoption of Model-as-a-Service (MaaS). However, transmitting raw text to servers raises critical privacy concerns. Existing approaches employ deep neural networks (DNNs) or differential privacy (DP) to perturb inputs. Yet, these approaches suffer notable limitations: DNN-based methods often require task-specific pre-training, and conventional DP techniques, though privacy-preserving, suffer from noise amplification as perturbed inputs propagate through the deep transformer layer, leading to significant degradation in downstream task performance. To alleviate this, we propose HIDDENECHO, an end-to-end framework with client noise correction, where hidden states are sent from the server to the client and refined by a lightweight module using both embeddings and intermediate representations. HIDDENECHO suppresses inter-layer noise amplification without pretraining, effectively preserving task-relevant signals under DP constraints. To further reduce communication, HIDDENECHO incorporates gradient-based hidden layer selection and information bottleneck compression, reducing communication cost while preserving essential task information. Experiments across text classification and generation tasks demonstrate that HIDDENECHO achieves up to 46.89\% performance improvement over DP baselines, over 85\% communication reduction, and up to 72.52\% faster training compared to existing denoising approaches, establishing a new privacy-utility trade-off for privatized LLMs. Codes are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/hidden-echo.

Poster
ComPhy: Composing Physical Models with end-to-end Alignment

Alessandro Trenta, Andrea Cossu, Davide Bacciu

展开摘要

Real-world phenomena typically involve multiple, interwoven dynamics that can be elegantly captured by systems of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). However, accurately solving such systems remains a challenge. In this paper, we introduce ComPhy (CP), a novel modular framework designed to leverage the inherent physical structure of the problem to solve systems of PDEs. CP assigns each PDE to a dedicated learning module, each capable of incorporating state-of-the-art methodologies such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks or Neural Conservation Laws. Crucially, CP introduces an end-to-end alignment mechanism, explicitly designed around the physical interplay of shared variables, enabling knowledge transfer between modules, and promoting solutions that are the result of the collective effort of all modules. CP is the first approach specifically designed to tackle systems of PDEs, and our results show that it outperforms state-of-the-art approaches where a single model is trained on all PDEs at once.

Poster
Shoot First, Ask Questions Later? Building Rational Agents that Explore and Act Like People

Gabriel Grand, Valerio Pepe, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Jacob Andreas

展开摘要

Many high-stakes applications of AI require forming data-driven hypotheses and making targeted guesses; e.g., in scientific and diagnostic settings. Given limited resources, to what extent do agents based on language models (LMs) act rationally? We develop methods to benchmark and enhance agentic information-seeking, drawing on insights from human behavior. First, we introduce a strategic decision-oriented dialogue task called *Collaborative Battleship*, in which a partially-informed *Captain* must balance exploration (asking questions) and action (taking shots), while a fully-informed *Spotter* must provide accurate answers under an information bottleneck. Compared to human players (N=42), we find that LM agents struggle to ground answers in context, generate informative questions, and select high-value actions. Next, to address these gaps, we develop novel Monte Carlo inference strategies for LMs based on principles from Bayesian Experimental Design (BED). For Spotter agents, our approach boosts accuracy by up to 14.7% absolute over LM-only baselines; for Captain agents, it raises expected information gain (EIG) by up to 0.227 bits (94.2% of the achievable noise ceiling). Combined, these components yield sharper targeting (+0.303–0.374 F1), and enable weaker LMs, such as Llama-4-Scout, to outperform both humans (8% → 82% win rate) and frontier models (0% → 67% win rate vs. GPT-5) at ≈1% of GPT-5's cost. We replicate these findings on *Guess Who?* where our methods significantly boost accuracy (+28.3–42.4 p.p.), demonstrating their general applicability for building rational information-seeking agents.

Oral
DreamOn: Diffusion Language Models For Code Infilling Beyond Fixed-size Canvas

Zirui Wu, Lin Zheng, Zhihui Xie, Jiacheng Ye, JIAHUI GAO, Shansan Gong, Yansong Feng, Zhenguo Li, Wei Bi, Guorui Zhou, Lingpeng Kong

展开摘要

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) present a compelling alternative to autoregressive models, offering flexible, any-order infilling without specialized prompting design. However, their practical utility is blocked by a critical limitation: the requirement of a fixed-length masked sequence for generation. This constraint severely degrades code infilling performance when the predefined mask size mismatches the ideal completion length. To address this, we propose DreamOn, a novel diffusion framework that enables dynamic, variable-length generation. DreamOn augments the diffusion process with two length control states, allowing the model to autonomously expand or contract the output length based solely on its own predictions. We integrate this mechanism into existing DLMs with minimal modifications to the training objective and no architectural changes. Built upon Dream-Coder-7B and DiffuCoder-7B, DreamOn achieves infilling performance on par with state-of-the-art autoregressive models on HumanEval-Infilling and SantaCoder-FIM and matches oracle performance achieved with ground-truth length. Our work removes a fundamental barrier to the practical deployment of DLMs, significantly advancing their flexibility and applicability for variable-length generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/DreamLM/DreamOn.

Poster
Enhancing Stability of Physics-Informed Neural Network Training Through Saddle-Point Reformulation

Dmitry Bylinkin, Mikhail Aleksandrov, Savelii Chezhegov, Aleksandr Beznosikov

展开摘要

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have gained prominence in recent years and are now effectively used in a number of applications. However, their performance remains unstable due to the complex landscape of the loss function. To address this issue, we reformulate PINN training as a nonconvex-strongly concave saddle-point problem. After establishing the theoretical foundation for this approach, we conduct an extensive experimental study, evaluating its effectiveness across various tasks and architectures. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the current state-of-the-art techniques.

Poster
A^2TG: Adaptive Anisotropic Textured Gaussians for Efficient 3D Scene Representation

Sheng-Chi Hsu, Ting-Yu Yen, Shih-Hsuan Hung, Hung-Kuo Chu

展开摘要

Gaussian Splatting has emerged as a powerful representation for high-quality, real-time 3D scene rendering. While recent works extend Gaussians with learnable textures to enrich visual appearance, existing approaches allocate a fixed square texture per primitive, leading to inefficient memory usage and limited adaptability to scene variability. In this paper, we introduce adaptive anisotropic textured Gaussians (A$^2$TG), a novel representation that generalizes textured Gaussians by equipping each primitive with an anisotropic texture. Our method employs a gradient-guided adaptive rule to jointly determine texture resolution and aspect ratio, enabling non-uniform, detail-aware allocation that aligns with the anisotropic nature of Gaussian splats. This design significantly improves texture efficiency, reducing memory consumption while enhancing image quality. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that A$^2$TG consistently outperforms fixed-texture Gaussian Splatting methods, achieving comparable rendering fidelity with substantially lower memory requirements.

Poster
Adaptive Acquisition Selection for Bayesian Optimization with Large Language Models

Giang Ngo, Dat Phan Trong, Dang Nguyen, Sunil Gupta, Svetha Venkatesh

展开摘要

Bayesian Optimization critically depends on the choice of acquisition function, but no single strategy is universally optimal; the best choice is non-stationary and problem-dependent. Existing adaptive portfolio methods often base their decisions on past function values while ignoring richer information like remaining budget or surrogate model characteristics. To address this, we introduce LMABO, a novel framework that casts a pre-trained Large Language Model (LLM) as a zero-shot, online strategist for the BO process. At each iteration, LMABO uses a structured state representation to prompt the LLM to select the most suitable acquisition function from a diverse portfolio. In an evaluation across 50 benchmark problems, LMABO demonstrates a significant performance improvement over strong static, adaptive portfolio, and other LLM-based baselines. We show that the LLM's behavior is a comprehensive strategy that adapts to real-time progress, proving its advantage stems from its ability to process and synthesize the complete optimization state into an effective, adaptive policy.

Poster
Convergence of Regret Matching in Potential Games and Constrained Optimization

Ioannis Anagnostides, Emanuel Tewolde, Brian Hu Zhang, Ioannis Panageas, Vincent Conitzer, Tuomas Sandholm

展开摘要

Regret matching (RM)---and its modern variants---is a foundational online algorithm that has been at the heart of many AI breakthrough results in solving benchmark zero-sum games, such as poker. Yet, surprisingly little is known so far in theory about its convergence beyond two-player zero-sum games. For example, whether regret matching converges to Nash equilibria in potential games has been an open problem for two decades. Even beyond games, one could try to use RM variants for general constrained optimization problems. Recent empirical evidence suggests that they---particularly regret matching$^+$ (RM$^+$)---attain strong performance on benchmark constrained optimization problems, outperforming traditional gradient descent-type algorithms. We show that alternating RM$^+$ converges to an $\epsilon$-KKT point after $O_\epsilon(1/\epsilon^4)$ iterations, establishing for the first time that it is a sound and fast first-order optimizer. Our argument relates the KKT gap to the accumulated regret, two quantities that are entirely disparate in general but interact in an intriguing way in our setting, so much so that when regrets are bounded, our complexity bound improves all the way to $O_\epsilon(1/\epsilon^2)$. From a technical standpoint, while RM$^+$ does not have the usual one-step improvement property in general, we show that it does in a certain region that the algorithm will quickly reach and remain in thereafter. In sharp contrast, our second main result establishes a lower bound: RM, with or without alternation, can take an exponential number of iterations to reach a crude approximate solution even in two-player potential games. This represents the first worst-case separation between RM and RM$^+$. Our lower bound shows that convergence to coarse correlated equilibria in potential games is exponentially faster than convergence to Nash equilibria.

Poster
Do Large Language Models Know What They Are Capable Of?

Casey O. Barkan, Sidney Black, Oliver Sourbut

展开摘要

We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can predict whether they will succeed on a given task and whether their predictions improve as they progress through multi-step tasks. We also investigate whether LLMs can learn from in-context experiences to make better decisions about whether to pursue a task in scenarios where failure is costly. All LLMs we tested are overconfident, but most predict their success with better-than-random discriminatory power. We find that newer and larger LLMs generally do not have greater discriminatory power, though Claude models do show such a trend. On multi-step agentic tasks, the overconfidence of several frontier LLMs worsens as they progress through the tasks, and reasoning LLMs perform comparable to or worse than non-reasoning LLMs. With in-context experiences of failure, some LLMs reduce their overconfidence leading to significantly improved decision making, while others do not. Interestingly, all LLMs’ decisions are approximately rational given their estimated probabilities of success, yet their overly-optimistic estimates result in poor decision making. These results suggest that current LLM agents are hindered by their lack of awareness of their own capabilities. We discuss the implications of LLMs' awareness of their capabilities for AI misuse and misalignment risks.

Poster
GCGNet: Graph-Consistent Generative Network for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

Zhengyu Li, Xiangfei Qiu, Yuhan Zhu, Xingjian Wu, Jilin Hu, Chenjuan Guo, Bin Yang

展开摘要

Exogenous variables offer valuable supplementary information for predicting future endogenous variables. Forecasting with exogenous variables needs to consider both past-to-future dependencies (i.e., temporal correlations) and the influence of exogenous variables on endogenous variables (i.e., channel correlations). This is pivotal when future exogenous variables are available, because they may directly affect the future endogenous variables. Many methods have been proposed for time series forecasting with exogenous variables, focusing on modeling temporal and channel correlations. However, most of them use a two-step strategy, modeling temporal and channel correlations separately, which limits their ability to capture joint correlations across time and channels. Furthermore, in real-world scenarios, recorded time series are frequently affected by various forms of noises, underscoring the critical importance of robustness in such correlations modeling. To address these limitations, we propose GCGNet, a Graph-Consistent Generative Network for time series forecasting with exogenous variables. Specifically, GCGNet first employs a Variational Generator to produce coarse predictions. A Graph Discriminator then further guides it by evaluating the consistency between the generated and true correlations, where the correlations are represented as graphs, and are robust to noises. Finally, a Graph Refiner is proposed to refine the predictions to prevent degeneration and improve accuracy. Extensive experiments on 12 real-world datasets demonstrate that GCGNet outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Poster