ICLR 2026 论文列表

International Conference on Learning Representations

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5,358篇论文

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  • Poster
    5,13495.8%

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Randomization Boosts KV Caching, Learning Balances Query Load: A Joint Perspective

Fangzhou Wu, Sandeep Silwal, Qiuyi Zhang

展开摘要

KV caching is a fundamental technique for accelerating Large Language Model (LLM) inference by reusing key-value (KV) pairs from previous queries, but its effectiveness under limited memory is highly sensitive to the eviction policy. The default Least Recently Used (LRU) eviction algorithm struggles with dynamic online query arrivals, especially in multi-LLM serving scenarios, where balancing query load across workers and maximizing cache hit rate of each worker are inherently conflicting objectives. We give the first unified mathematical model that captures the core trade-offs between KV cache eviction and query routing. Our analysis reveals the theoretical limitations of existing methods and leads to principled algorithms that integrate provably competitive randomized KV cache eviction with learning-based methods to adaptively route queries with evolving patterns, thus balancing query load and cache hit rate. Our theoretical results are validated by extensive experiments across 4 benchmarks and 3 prefix-sharing settings, demonstrating improvements of up to **6.92$\times$** in cache hit rate, **11.96$\times$** reduction in latency, **14.06$\times$** reduction in time-to-first-token (TTFT), and **77.4%** increase in throughput over the state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/fzwark/KVRouting.

Poster
Scaling Linear Attention with Sparse State Expansion

Yuqi Pan, Yongqi An, Zheng Li, Yuhong Chou, Rui-Jie Zhu, Xiaohui Wang, Mingxuan Wang, Jinqiao Wang, Guoqi Li

展开摘要

The Transformer architecture, despite its widespread success, struggles with long-context scenarios due to quadratic computation and linear memory growth. While various linear attention variants mitigate these efficiency constraints by compressing context into fixed-size states, they often degrade performance in tasks such as in-context retrieval and reasoning. To address this limitation and achieve more effective context compression, we propose two key innovations. First, we introduce a row-sparse update formulation for linear attention by conceptualizing state updating as information classification. This enables sparse state updates via softmax-based top-$k$ hard classification, thereby extending receptive fields and reducing inter-class interference. Second, we present Sparse State Expansion (SSE) within the sparse framework, which expands the contextual state into multiple partitions, effectively decoupling parameter size from state capacity while maintaining the sparse classification paradigm. Supported by efficient parallelized implementations, our design achieves effective classification and highly discriminative state representations. We extensively validate SSE in both pure linear and hybrid (SSE-H) architectures across language modeling, in-context retrieval, and mathematical reasoning benchmarks. SSE demonstrates strong retrieval performance and scales favorably with state size. Moreover, after reinforcement learning (RL) training, our 2B SSE-H model achieves state-of-the-art mathematical reasoning performance among small reasoning models, scoring 64.5 on AIME24 and 50.2 on AIME25, significantly outperforming similarly sized open-source Transformers. These results highlight SSE as a promising and efficient architecture for long-context modeling.

Poster
Exploring State-Space Models for Data-Specific Neural Representations

Jinsung Lee, Suha Kwak

展开摘要

This paper studies the problem of data-specific neural representations, aiming for compact, flexible, and modality-agnostic storage of individual visual data using neural networks. Our approach considers a visual datum as a set of discrete observations of an underlying continuous signal, thus requiring models capable of capturing the inherent structure of the signal. For this purpose, we investigate state-space models (SSMs), which are well-suited for modeling latent signal dynamics. We first explore the appealing properties of SSMs for data-specific neural representation and then present a novel framework that integrates SSMs into the representation pipeline. The proposed framework achieved compact representations and strong reconstruction performance across a range of visual data formats, suggesting the potential of SSMs for data-specific neural representations.

Poster
Improving 2D Diffusion Models for 3D Medical Imaging with Inter‑Slice Consistent Stochasticity

Chenhe Du, Qing Wu, Xuanyu Tian, Jingyi Yu, Hongjiang Wei, Yuyao Zhang

展开摘要

3D medical imaging is in high demand and essential for clinical diagnosis and scientific research. Currently, diffusion models have become an effective tool for medical imaging reconstruction thanks to their ability to learn rich, high‑quality data priors. However, learning the 3D data distribution with diffusion models in medical imaging is challenging, not only due to the difficulties in data collection but also because of the significant computational burden during model training. A common compromise is to train the diffusion model on 2D data priors and reconstruct stacked 2D slices to address 3D medical inverse problems. However, the intrinsic randomness of diffusion sampling causes severe inter‑slice discontinuities of reconstructed 3D volumes. Existing methods often enforce continuity regularizations along the $z$‑axis, which introduces sensitive hyper‑parameters and may lead to over-smoothing results. In this work, we revisit the origin of stochasticity in diffusion sampling and introduce Inter‑Slice Consistent Stochasticity (ISCS), a simple yet effective strategy that encourages inter‑slice consistency during diffusion sampling. Our key idea is to control the consistency of stochastic noise components during diffusion sampling, thereby aligning their sampling trajectories without adding any new loss terms or optimization steps. Importantly, the proposed ISCS is plug‑and‑play and can be dropped into any 2D‑trained diffusion‑based 3D reconstruction pipeline without additional computational cost. Experiments on several medical imaging problems show that our method can effectively improve the performance of medical 3D imaging problems based on 2D diffusion models. Our findings suggest that controlling inter‑slice stochasticity is a principled and practically attractive route toward high‑fidelity 3D medical imaging with 2D diffusion priors. The code is available at: [https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ICLR-ISCS-3281](https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ICLR-ISCS-3281).

Poster
Learning to Reason Efficiently with Discounted Reinforcement Learning

Alex Ayoub, Kavosh Asadi, Dale Schuurmans, Csaba Szepesvari, Karim Bouyarmane

展开摘要

Large reasoning models (LRMs) often consume excessive tokens, inflating computational cost and latency. We challenge the assumption that longer responses improve accuracy. By penalizing the reasoning tokens using a discounted reinforcement-learning setup (interpretable as a small per-token cost) and analyzing Blackwell optimality in restricted policy classes, we encourage concise yet accurate reasoning; in practice we discount only the environment (correctness) reward. Experiments confirm our theoretical results that this approach shortens chains of thought while preserving accuracy.

Poster
Statistical Advantage of Softmax Attention: Insights from Single-Location Regression

O Duranthon, Pierre Marion, Claire Boyer, Bruno Loureiro, Lenka Zdeborová

展开摘要

Large language models rely on attention mechanisms with a softmax activation. Yet the dominance of softmax over alternatives (e.g., component-wise or linear) remains poorly understood, and many theoretical works have focused on the easier-to-analyze linearized attention. In this work, we address this gap through a principled study of the single-location regression task, where the output depends on a linear transformation of a single input token at a random location. Building on ideas from statistical physics, we develop an analysis of attention-based predictors in the high-dimensional limit, where generalization performance is captured by a small set of order parameters. At the population level, we show that softmax achieves the Bayes risk, whereas linear attention fundamentally falls short. We then examine other activation functions to identify which properties are necessary for optimal performance. Finally, we analyze the finite-sample regime: we provide an asymptotic characterization of the test error and show that, while softmax is no longer Bayes-optimal, it consistently outperforms linear attention. We discuss the connection with optimization by gradient-based algorithms.

Poster
Task-Aware Data Selection via Proxy-Label Enhanced Distribution Matching for LLM Finetuning

Hao Cheng, Rui Zhang, Ling Li, Na Di, Jiaheng Wei, Zhaowei Zhu, Bo Han

展开摘要

Task-specific fine-tuning of foundation models is critically dependent on the quality and relevance of the instruction data. While prevailing data selection methods rely exclusively on instruction instances X to approximate the target distribution, we argue that selection should align with the joint distribution of instructions and task-specific labels (X,Y), However, task-specific labels Y are typically unavailable in practice. To address this, we reformulate the task-specific data selection problem and present a novel pipeline that leverages the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to infer proxy labels, thereby facilitating joint distribution alignment. Our approach begins by propagating proxy labels from a small target set to a large, unlabeled source corpus. A two-stage filtering process then removes instances with label noise and refines the subset through distribution alignment. This strategy produces more semantically meaningful and task-aware selections than conventional similarity measures based on X alone. Experimental results show that fine-tuning on a subset of only 10K samples—selected from a pool of 300K—achieves performance competitive or superior to state-of-the-art methods.

Poster
Boosting Multi-Domain Reasoning of LLMs via Curvature-Guided Policy Optimization

Xize Liang, Lin Yang, Jie Wang, Rui Liu, Yang Lu, Jinliang Zeng, Hanzhu Chen, Dong Li, Jianye Hao

展开摘要

Multi-domain reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models (LLMs) involves highly intricate reward surfaces, posing significant challenges in finding parameters that excel across all domains. Recent empirical studies have further highlighted conflicts among domains, where gains in one capability often come at the expense of another. However, approaches to mitigate such conflicts and enhance multi-domain reasoning remain largely underexplored. To address this challenge, we propose **C**urvature-**G**uided **P**olicy **O**ptimization (**CGPO**), a principled and scalable training framework to advance the multi-domain reasoning of LLMs. Inspired by Newton's method, CGPO exploits the geometric structure in the reward surface, while sidestepping the prohibitive cost of Hessian computation. At each update, CGPO processes domains in random order, preconditioning their gradients with curvature information from other domains to foster richer cross-domain interactions. This mechanism further promotes implicit gradient alignment by maximizing inter-domain inner products in expectation, steering the parameters toward regions that jointly enhance multi-domain performance. Extensive experiments on a mixed dataset covering math, coding, science, and creative writing, evaluated across seven widely-used benchmarks, show that CGPO significantly outperforms all baselines in terms of faster reward improvement and stronger multi-domain capability.

Poster
GAS: Improving Discretization of Diffusion ODEs via Generalized Adversarial Solver

Aleksandr Oganov, Ilya Bykov, Eva Neudachina, Mishan Aliev, Alexander Tolmachev, Alexander Sidorov, Zuev Aleksandr, Andrey Okhotin, Denis Rakitin, Aibek Alanov

展开摘要

While diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art generation quality, they still suffer from computationally expensive sampling. Recent works address this issue with gradient-based optimization methods that distill a few-step ODE diffusion solver from the full sampling process, reducing the number of function evaluations from dozens to just a few. However, these approaches often rely on intricate training techniques and do not explicitly focus on preserving fine-grained details. In this paper, we introduce the Generalized Solver: a simple parameterization of the ODE sampler that does not require additional training tricks and improves quality over existing approaches. We further combine the original distillation loss with adversarial training, which mitigates artifacts and enhances detail fidelity. We call the resulting method the Generalized Adversarial Solver and demonstrate its superior performance compared to existing solver training methods under similar resource constraints.

Poster
MUSE: Model-Agnostic Tabular Watermarking via Multi-Sample Selection

Liancheng Fang, Aiwei Liu, Henry Peng Zou, Yankai Chen, Hengrui Zhang, Zhongfen Deng, Philip S. Yu

展开摘要

We introduce MUSE, a novel watermarking paradigm for tabular generative models. Existing approaches often exploit DDIM invertibility to watermark tabular diffusion models, but tabular diffusion models suffer from poor invertibility, leading to degraded performance. To overcome this limitation, we leverage the computational efficiency of tabular generative models and propose a multi-sample selection paradigm, where watermarks are embedded by generating multiple candidate samples and selecting one according to a specialized scoring function. The key advantages of MUSE include (1) Model-agnostic: compatible with any tabular generative model that supports repeated sampling; (2) Flexible: offers flexible designs to navigate the trade-off between generation quality, detectability, and robustness; (3) Calibratable: theoretical analysis provides principled calibration of watermarking strength, ensuring minimal distortion to the original data distribution. Extensive experiments on five datasets demonstrate that MUSE substantially outperforms existing methods. Notably, it reduces the distortion rates by 84-88% for fidelity metrics compared with the best performing baselines, while achieving 1.0 TPR@0.1%FPR detection rate.

Poster
Tricks or Traps? A Deep Dive into RL for LLM Reasoning

Zihe Liu, Jiashun Liu, Yancheng He, Weixun Wang, Jiaheng Liu, Ling Pan, Xinyu Hu, Shaopan Xiong, Ju Huang, Jian Hu, Shengyi Huang, Siran Yang, Jiamang Wang, Wenbo Su, Bo Zheng

展开摘要

Reinforcement learning (RL) for LLM reasoning has rapidly emerged as a prominent research area, marked by a significant surge in related studies on both algorithmic innovations and practical applications. Despite this progress, several critical challenges remain, including the absence of standardized guidelines for applying RL techniques and a fragmented understanding of their underlying mechanisms. In addition, inconsistent experimental settings, variations in training data, and differences in model initialization have led to conflicting conclusions, obscuring the key characteristics of these techniques and creating confusion among practitioners when selecting appropriate techniques. This paper systematically reviews widely adopted RL techniques through rigorous reproductions and isolated evaluations within a unified open-source framework. We analyze the internal mechanisms, applicable scenarios, and core principles of each technique through fine-grained experiments, including datasets of varying difficulty, model sizes, and architectures. Based on these insights, we present clear guidelines for selecting RL techniques tailored to specific setups and provide a reliable roadmap for practitioners navigating the RL for the LLM domain. Finally, we show that a minimalist combination of two techniques can unlock the learning capability of critic-free policies with a vanilla PPO loss. The results demonstrate that our simple combination consistently improves performance, surpassing strategies such as GRPO and DAPO.

Poster
MultiMat: Multimodal Program Synthesis for Procedural Materials using Large Multimodal Models

Jonas Belouadi, Tamy Boubekeur, Adrien Kaiser

展开摘要

Material node graphs are programs that generate the 2D channels of procedural materials, including geometry such as roughness and displacement maps, and reflectance such as albedo and conductivity maps. They are essential in computer graphics for representing the appearance of virtual 3D objects parametrically and at arbitrary resolution. In particular, their directed acyclic graph structure and intermediate states enable a modular, interpretable workflow for interactive appearance modeling. However, creating such graphs remains challenging and typically requires professional training. While recent neural program synthesis approaches attempt to simplify this process, they solely represent graphs as textual programs, failing to capture the inherently visual-spatial nature of node graphs that makes them accessible to humans. To address this gap, we present MultiMat, a multimodal program synthesis framework that leverages large multimodal models to process both visual and textual graph representations for improved generation of procedural material graphs. We train our models on a new dataset of production-quality procedural materials and combine them with a constrained tree search inference algorithm that ensures static correctness while efficiently navigating the program space. Our experimental results show that our multimodal program synthesis method is more efficient in both unconditional and conditional graph synthesis with higher visual quality and fidelity than text-only baselines, establishing new state-of-the-art performance.

Poster
No, of Course I Can! Deeper Fine-Tuning Attacks That Bypass Token-Level Safety Mechanisms

Joshua Kazdan, Abhay Puri, Rylan Schaeffer, Lisa Yu, Chris Cundy, Jason Stanley, Sanmi Koyejo, Krishnamurthy Dj Dvijotham

展开摘要

Leading language model (LM) providers like OpenAI and Anthopic allow customers to fine-tune frontier LMs for specific use cases. To prevent abuse, these providers apply filters to block fine-tuning on overtly harmful data. In this setting, we make three contributions: First, while past work has shown that safety alignment is superficial, we correspondingly demonstrate that existing fine-tuning attacks are "shallow" -- attacks target only the first several tokens of the model response, and consequently can be blocked by generating the first several response tokens with an aligned model. Second, we conceptually illustrate how to make attacks deeper by introducing a new fine-tuning attack that trains models to first refuse harmful requests before answering them; this ``refuse-then-comply" strategy bypasses shallow defenses and produces harmful responses that evade output filters. Third, we demonstrate the potency of our new fine-tuning attack by jailbreaking both open-source models equipped with defenses and production models, achieving attack success rates of 57% and 72% against GPT-4o and Claude Haiku, respectively. Our attack received a $2000 bug bounty from OpenAI and was acknowledged as a vulnerability by Anthropic.

Poster
Polynomial, trigonometric, and tropical activations

Ismail Khalfaoui-Hassani, Stefan Kesselheim

展开摘要

Which functions can be used as activations in deep neural networks? This article explores families of functions based on orthonormal bases, including the Hermite polynomial basis and the Fourier trigonometric basis, as well as a basis resulting from the tropicalization of a polynomial basis. Our study shows that, through a simple variance-preserving initialization and without additional clamping mechanisms, these activations can successfully be used to train deep models, such as GPT-2 for next-token prediction on OpenWebText and ConvNeXt for image classification on ImageNet. Our work addresses the issue of exploding and vanishing activations and gradients, particularly prevalent with polynomial activations, and opens the door for improving the efficiency of large-scale learning tasks. Furthermore, our approach provides insight into the structure of neural networks, revealing that networks with polynomial activations can be interpreted as multivariate polynomial mappings. Finally, using Hermite interpolation, we show that our activations can closely approximate classical ones in pre-trained models by matching both the function and its derivative, making them especially useful for fine-tuning tasks. These activations are available in the torchortho library.

Poster
ARTDECO: Toward High-Fidelity On-the-Fly Reconstruction with Hierarchical Gaussian Structure and Feed-Forward Guidance

Guanghao Li, Kerui Ren, Linning Xu, Zhewen Zheng, Changjian Jiang, Xin Gao, Bo Dai, Jian Pu, Mulin Yu, Jiangmiao Pang

展开摘要

On-the-fly 3D reconstruction from monocular image sequences is a long-standing challenge in computer vision, critical for applications such as real-to-sim, AR/VR, and robotics. Existing methods face a major tradeoff: per-scene optimization yields high fidelity but is computationally expensive, whereas feed-forward foundation models enable real-time inference but struggle with accuracy and robustness. In this work, we propose ARTDECO, a unified framework that combines the efficiency of feed-forward models with the reliability of SLAM-based pipelines. ARTDECO uses 3D foundation models for pose estimation and point prediction, coupled with a Gaussian decoder that transforms multi-scale features into structured 3D Gaussians. To sustain both fidelity and efficiency at scale, we design a hierarchical Gaussian representation with a LoD-aware rendering strategy, which improves rendering fidelity while reducing redundancy. Experiments on eight diverse indoor and outdoor benchmarks show that ARTDECO delivers interactive performance comparable to SLAM, robustness similar to feed-forward systems, and reconstruction quality close to per-scene optimization, providing a practical path toward on-the-fly digitization of real-world environments with both accurate geometry and high visual fidelity.

Poster
EventFlash: Towards Efficient MLLMs for Event-Based Vision

Shaoyu Liu, Jianing Li, guanghui zhao, Yunjian Zhang, Wen Jiang, Ming Li, Xiangyang Ji

展开摘要

Event-based multimodal large language models (MLLMs) enable robust perception in high-speed and low-light scenarios, addressing key limitations of frame-based MLLMs. However, current event-based MLLMs often rely on dense image-like processing paradigms, overlooking the spatiotemporal sparsity of event streams and resulting in high computational cost. In this paper, we propose EventFlash, the first efficient MLLM to explore spatiotemporal token sparsification for reducing data redundancy and accelerating inference. Technically, we first build EventMind, a large-scale and scene-diverse dataset with over 500k instruction sets, providing both short and long event stream sequences to support our curriculum training strategy. Then, we present the adaptive temporal window aggregation module for efficient temporal sampling, which adaptively compresses temporal tokens while retaining key temporal cues. Finally, the sparse density-guided attention module is designed to improve spatial token efficiency by selecting informative regions and suppressing empty or sparse areas. Experimental results show that EventFlash achieves a 12.4x throughput improvement over the baseline (EventFlash-Zero) while maintaining comparable performance. It supports long-range event stream processing with up to 1,000 bins, significantly outperforming EventGPT’s 5-bin limit. We believe EventFlash serves as an efficient foundation model for event-based vision. Our code and dataset details are provided in the supplementary.

Poster
Flash-Searcher: Fast and Effective Web Agents via DAG-Based Parallel Execution

Tianrui Qin, Qianben Chen, Sinuo Wang, He Xing, King Zhu, He Zhu, Dingfeng Shi, Xinxin Liu, Ge Zhang, Jiaheng Liu, Xitong Gao, Yuchen Eleanor Jiang, Wangchunshu Zhou

展开摘要

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex reasoning tasks when equipped with external tools. However, current frameworks predominantly rely on sequential processing, leading to inefficient execution particularly for tasks requiring extensive tool interaction. This paper introduces Flash-Searcher, a novel parallel agent reasoning framework that fundamentally reimagines the execution paradigm from sequential chains to directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). Flash-Searcher decomposes complex tasks into subtasks with explicit dependencies, enabling concurrent execution of independent reasoning paths while maintaining logical constraints. Through dynamic workflow optimization, our framework continuously refines the execution graph based on intermediate results, effectively integrating summary module. Comprehensive evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that Flash-Searcher consistently outperforms existing approaches. Specifically, it achieves **67.7%** accuracy on BrowseComp and **83%** on xbench-DeepSearch, while reducing agent execution steps by up to **35%** compared to current frameworks. Furthermore, when distilling this parallel reasoning pipeline into single models, we observe substantial performance gains across diverse backbone architectures, underscoring the generalizability of our methodology. Our work thus represents a significant advance in agent architecture design, offering a more scalable and efficient paradigm for complex reasoning tasks.

Poster
From Evaluation to Defense: Advancing Safety in Video Large Language Models

Yiwei Sun, Peiqi Jiang, Chuanbin Liu, Luohao Lin, Zhiying Lu, Hongtao Xie

展开摘要

While the safety risks of image-based large language models (Image LLMs) have been extensively studied, their video-based counterparts (Video LLMs) remain critically under-examined. To systematically study this problem, we introduce \textbf{VideoSafetyEval} - the first large-scale, real-world benchmark for Video LLM safety, which compromises 11.4k video-query pairs and spans 19 principal risk categories. Based on this, \textit{we reveal that integrating video modality degrades safety performance by an average of 34.2\%, exposing systemic risks in multimodal attack exploitation.} To address this vulnerability, we propose \textbf{VideoSafety-R1}, a dual-stage framework achieving unprecedented safety gains through three innovations: (1) VideoSafetyThinking dataset contains 46k video-query–thinking response triplets. (2) Alarm Token-Guided Safety Fine-Tuning (AT-SFT) injects learnable alarm tokens into visual and textual sequences, enabling explicit harm perception across modalities via multitask objectives. (3) Then, Safety-Guided GRPO enhances defensive reasoning through dynamic policy optimization with rule-based rewards derived from dual-modality verification. These components synergize to shift safety alignment from harm perception to active reasoning. The framework achieves a 71.1\% improvement on VSE-HH, and improves by 59.1\%, 44.3\%, and 15.0\% on the image safety datasets MMBench, VLGuard, and FigStep, respectively. \textit{Our codes are anonymously available at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/VSBr1-911E/README.md}.} \textcolor{red}{Note: This paper contains harmful language and image examples, and reader discretion is recommended.}

Poster
WeTok: Powerful Discrete Tokenization for High-Fidelity Visual Reconstruction

Shaobin Zhuang, Yiwei Guo, Fangyikang Wang, Canmiao Fu, Zhipeng Huang, Zeyue Tian, Xiaohui Li, Ying Zhang, Chen Li, Yali Wang

展开摘要

Visual tokenizer is a critical component for vision generation. However, the existing tokenizers often face unsatisfactory trade-off between compression ratios and reconstruction fidelity. To fill this gap, we introduce a powerful and concise WeTok tokenizer, which surpasses the previous leading tokenizers via two core innovations. (1) Group-wise lookup-free Quantization (GQ). We partition the latent features into groups, and perform lookup-free quantization for each group. As a result, GQ can efficiently overcome memory and computation limitations of prior tokenizers, while achieving a reconstruction breakthrough with more scalable codebooks. (2) Generative Decoding (GD). Different from prior tokenizers, we introduce a generative decoder with a prior of extra noise variable. In this case, GD can probabilistically model the distribution of visual data conditioned on discrete tokens, allowing WeTok to reconstruct visual details, especially at high compression ratios. On the ImageNet 50k validation set, at a high-fidelity setting, WeTok achieves a record-low zero-shot rFID of 0.12, outperforming leading continuous tokenizers like FLUX-VAE (0.18) and SD-VAE 3.5 (0.19) with 400% compression ratio. Furthermore, in a high-compression regime, WeTok achieves a zero-shot rFID of 3.49 at a 768× compression ratio, substantially surpassing Cosmos, which scores 4.57 at only 50% our compression ratio.

Poster
ARROW: An Adaptive Rollout and Routing Method for Global Weather Forecasting

Jindong Tian, Yifei Ding, Ronghui Xu, Hao Miao, Chenjuan Guo, Bin Yang

展开摘要

Weather forecasting is a fundamental task in spatiotemporal data analysis, with broad applications across a wide range of domains. Existing data-driven forecasting methods typically model atmospheric dynamics over a fixed short time interval, e.g., 6 hours, and rely on naive autoregression-based rollout for long-term forecastsing, e.g., 5 days. However, this paradigm suffers from two key limitations: (1) it often inadequately models the spatial and multi-scale temporal dependencies inherent in global weather systems, and (2) the rollout strategy struggles to balance error accumulation with the capture of fine-grained atmospheric variations. In this study, we propose ARROW, an Adaptive-Rollout Multi-scale temporal Routing method for Global Weather Forecasting. To contend with the first limitation, we construct a multi-interval forecasting model that forecasts weather across different time intervals. Within the model, the Shared-Private Mixture-of-Experts captures both shared patterns and specific characteristics of atmospheric dynamics across different time scales, while Ring Positional Encoding accurately encodes the circular latitude structure of the Earth when representing spatial information. For the second limitation, we develop an adaptive rollout scheduler based on reinforcement learning, which selects the most suitable time interval to forecast according to the current weather state. Experimental results demonstrate that ARROW achieves state-of-the-art performance in global weather forecasting, establishing a promising paradigm in this field.

Poster