ICLR 2026 论文列表

Training time-series forecast models requires aligning the conditional distribution of model forecasts with that of the label sequence. The standard direct forecast (DF) approach seeks to minimize the conditional negative log-likelihood of the label sequence, typically estimated using the mean squared error. However, this estimation proves to be biased in the presence of label autocorrelation. In this paper, we propose DistDF, which achieves alignment by alternatively minimizing a discrepancy between the conditional forecast and label distributions. Because conditional discrepancies are difficult to estimate from finite time-series observations, we introduce a newly proposed joint-distribution Wasserstein discrepancy for time-series forecasting, which provably upper bounds the conditional discrepancy of interest. This discrepancy admits tractable, differentiable estimation from empirical samples and integrates seamlessly with gradient-based training. Extensive experiments show that DistDF improves the performance diverse forecast models and achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DistDF-F66B.

Incremental Object Detection (IOD) enables AI systems to continuously learn new object classes over time while retaining knowledge of previously learned categories. This capability is essential for adapting to dynamic environments without forgetting prior information. Although existing IOD methods have made progress in mitigating catastrophic forgetting, they usually lack explicit and quantitative modeling of information conflicts during knowledge preservation, making task boundaries ambiguous. Such conflicts often stem from the fact that a single image can contain objects belonging to previous, present, and future tasks, where unlabeled past and future objects are often mistakenly treated as background. In this paper, we propose a novel approach grounded in Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC) to alleviate conflict knowledge preservation caused by task interference. Specifically, we introduce the Interference Knowledge Isolated Elastic Weight Consolidation (IKI-EWC) framework for IOD, which leverages the mispredictions of the old detector on new task data to estimate task conflicts and suppresses them at the parameter level. By reformulating the Bayesian posterior of model parameters, we derive a mathematical relationship between previously learned knowledge and interference knowledge, enabling targeted elimination of conflicts during model weight updates. In addition, we also propose a prototype-based knowledge calibration (PKC) mechanism to further preserve old knowledge during the training of the objector's classification head. This method employs a learnable projection layer to compensate semantic drift in old class prototypes, and then jointly trains the classification head using both calibrated prototypes and current task features, thereby mitigating forgetting caused by classifier updates. Extensive experiments on PASCAL VOC and MS-COCO benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, outperforming state-of-the-art approaches across various settings.

Catastrophic forgetting, the tendency of neural networks to forget previously learned knowledge when learning new tasks, has been a major challenge in continual learning (CL). To tackle this challenge, CL methods have been proposed and shown to reduce forgetting. Furthermore, CL models deployed in mission-critical settings can benefit from uncertainty awareness by calibrating their predictions to reliably assess their confidences. However, existing uncertainty-aware continual learning methods suffer from high computational overhead and incompatibility with mainstream replay methods. To address this, we propose idempotent experience replay (IDER), a novel approach based on the idempotent property where repeated function applications yield the same output. Specifically, we first adapt the training loss to make model idempotent on current data streams. In addition, we introduce an idempotence distillation loss. We feed the output of the current model back into the old checkpoint and then minimize the distance between this reprocessed output and the original output of the current model. This yields a simple and effective new baseline for building reliable continual learners, which can be seamlessly integrated with other CL approaches. Extensive experiments on different CL benchmarks demonstrate that IDER consistently improves prediction reliability while simultaneously boosting accuracy and reducing forgetting. Our results suggest the potential of idempotence as a promising principle for deploying efficient and trustworthy continual learning systems in real-world applications. Our code will be released upon publication.

Despite its recent successes, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is notoriously sample-inefficient. We argue that this inefficiency stems from the standard practice of optimizing policies directly in the high-dimensional and highly redundant parameter space $\\Theta$. This challenge is greatly compounded in multi-task settings. In this work, we develop a novel, unsupervised approach that compresses the policy parameter space $\\Theta$ into a low-dimensional latent space $\\mathcal Z$. We train a generative model $g:\\mathcal Z\\to\\Theta$ by optimizing a behavioral reconstruction loss, which ensures that the latent space is organized by functional similarity rather than proximity in parameterization. We conjecture that the inherent dimensionality of this manifold is a function of the environment's complexity, rather than the size of the policy network. We validate our approach in continuous control domains, showing that the parameterization of standard policy networks can be compressed up to five orders of magnitude while retaining most of its expressivity. As a byproduct, we show that the learned manifold enables task-specific adaptation via Policy Gradient operating in the latent space $\\mathcal{Z}$.

Unit testing is a core practice in programming, enabling systematic evaluation of programs produced by human developers or large language models (LLMs). Given the challenges in writing comprehensive unit tests, LLMs have been employed to automate unit test generation, yet methods for training LLMs to produce high-quality unit tests remain underexplored. In this work, we propose UTRL, a novel reinforcement learning (RL) framework that trains an LLM to generate high-quality unit test given a programming instruction. Our key idea is to iteratively train two LLMs, the unit test generator and the code generator, in an adversarial manner via RL: (1) the unit test generator is trained to maximize a discrimination reward, encouraging it to produce tests that reveal faults in the code generator’s solutions; and (2) the code generator is trained to maximize a code reward, encouraging it to produce solutions that pass the unit tests generated by the unit test generator. In our experiment, we demonstrate that unit tests generated by Qwen3-4B trained via UTRL show higher quality compared to unit tests generated by the same model trained via supervised fine-tuning on ground-truth unit tests, yielding code evaluations that more closely align with those induced by the ground-truth tests. Moreover, Qwen3-4B trained with UTRL outperforms frontier models like GPT-4.1 and GPT-4o in generating high-quality unit tests, highlighting the effectiveness of UTRL in training LLMs for the unit test generation.

To mitigate the trade-offs between performance and costs, LLM providers route user tasks to different models based on task difficulty and latency. We study the effect of LLM routing with respect to user behavior. We propose a game between an LLM provider with two models (standard and reasoning) and a user who can re-prompt or abandon tasks if the routed model cannot solve them. The user's goal is to maximize their utility minus the delay from using the model, while the provider minimizes the cost of servicing the user. We solve this Stackelberg game by fully characterizing the user best response and simplifying the provider problem. We observe that in nearly all cases, the optimal routing policy involves a static policy with no cascading that depends on the expected utility of the models to the user. Furthermore, we reveal a misalignment gap between the provider-optimal and user-preferred routes when the user's and provider's rankings of the models with respect to utility and cost differ. Finally, we demonstrate conditions for extreme misalignment where providers are incentivized to throttle the latency of the models to minimize their costs, consequently depressing user utility. The results yield simple threshold rules for single-provider, single-user interactions and clarify when routing, cascading, and throttling help or harm.

We introduce SpatialHand, a novel framework for generative object insertion with precise 3D control. Current generative object manipulation methods primarily operate within the 2D image plane, but often fail to grasp 3D scene complexities, leading to ambiguities in an object's 3D position, orientation, and occlusion relations. SpatialHand addresses this by conceptualizing object insertion from a true ``3D perspective," enabling manipulation with a complete 6 Degrees-of-Freedom (6DoF) controllability. Specifically, our solution naturally and implicitly encodes the 6DoF pose condition by decomposing it into 2D location (via masked image), depth (via composited depth map), and 3D orientation (embedded into latent features). To overcome the scarcity of paired training data, we develop an automated data construction pipeline using synthetic 3D assets, rendering, and subject-driven generation, complemented by visual foundation models for pose estimation. We further design a multi-stage training scheme to progressively drive SpatialHand to robustly follow multiple complex conditions. Extensive experiments reveal our approach's superiority over existing alternatives and its great potential for enabling more versatile and intuitive AR/VR-like object manipulation within images.

With the rapid progress of large language models (LLMs) trained on every available piece of data, it becomes increasingly challenging to reliably evaluate their intelligence due to potential data contamination and benchmark overfitting. To overcome these challenges, we investigate a new angle of benchmarking LLMs' intelligence by evaluating their capability in forecasting real-world future events, a paradigm we call "LLM-as-a-Prophet". Such forecasting tasks require combination of sophisticated capabilities while remaining free from data contamination or overfitting. To systematically evaluate such predictive intelligence of LLMs, we introduce $\texttt{Prophet Arena}$, a general evaluation benchmark that continuously collects live forecasting tasks and decomposes each task into distinct pipeline stages, supporting our controlled and large-scale experimentation. Our comprehensive evaluation reveals that many LLMs already exhibit impressive forecasting capabilities, reflected in, e.g., their small calibration errors, consistent prediction confidence and promising market returns. However, we also uncover key bottlenecks even in frontier models, such as inaccurate event recalls, misunderstanding of data sources and slower information aggregation compared to markets when resolution nears.

Large language models (LLMs) demand extensive memory capacity during both fine-tuning and inference. To enable memory-efficient fine-tuning, existing methods apply block-wise quantization techniques, such as NF4 and AF4, to the network weights. We show that these quantization techniques incur suboptimal quantization errors. Therefore, as a first novelty, we propose an optimization approach for block-wise quantization. Using this method, we design a family of quantizers named 4-bit block-wise optimal float (BOF4), which consistently reduces the quantization error compared to both baseline methods. We provide both a theoretical and a data-driven solution for the optimization process and prove their practical equivalence. Secondly, we propose a modification to the employed normalization method based on the signed absolute block maximum (BOF4-S), enabling further reduction of the quantization error and empirically achieving less degradation in language modeling performance. Thirdly, we explore additional variations of block-wise quantization methods applied to LLMs through an experimental study on the importance of accurately representing zero and large-amplitude weights on the one hand, and optimization towards various error metrics on the other hand. Lastly, we introduce a mixed-precision quantization strategy dubbed outlier-preserving quantization (OPQ) to address the distributional mismatch induced by outlier weights in block-wise quantization. By storing outlier weights in 16-bit precision (OPQ) while applying BOF4-S, we achieve top performance among 4-bit block-wise quantization techniques w.r.t. perplexity.

Multimodal spatiotemporal learning on real-world experimental data is constrained by two challenges: within-modality measurements are sparse, irregular, and noisy (QA/QC artifacts) but cross-modally correlated; the set of available modalities varies across space and time, shrinking the usable record unless models can adapt to arbitrary subsets at train and test time. We propose OmniField, a continuity-aware framework that learns a continuous neural field conditioned on available modalities and iteratively fuses cross-modal context. A multimodal crosstalk block architecture paired with iterative cross-modal refinement aligns signals prior to the decoder, enabling unified reconstruction, interpolation, forecasting, and cross-modal prediction without gridding or surrogate preprocessing. Extensive evaluations show that OmniField consistently outperforms eight strong multimodal spatiotemporal baselines. Under heavy simulated sensor noise, performance remains close to clean-input levels, highlighting robustness to corrupted measurements.

Federated Learning (FL) offers a powerful paradigm for training models on decentralized data, but its promise is often undermined by the immense complexity of designing and deploying robust systems. The need to select, combine, and tune strategies for multifaceted challenges like data heterogeneity and system constraints has become a critical bottleneck, resulting in brittle, bespoke solutions. To address this, we introduce Helmsman, a novel LLM-based multi-agent framework that automates the end-to-end synthesis of federated learning systems from high-level user specifications. It emulates a principled research and development workflow through three collaborative phases: (1) interactive human-in-the-loop planning to formulate a sound research plan, (2) modular code generation by supervised generative agent teams, and (3) a closed-loop of autonomous evaluation and refinement in a sandboxed simulation environment. To facilitate rigorous evaluation, we also introduce AgentFL-Bench, a new benchmark comprising 16 diverse tasks designed to assess the system-level generation capabilities of LLM-driven agentic systems in FL. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach generates solutions competitive with, and often superior to, established hand-crafted baselines. Our work represents a significant step towards the automated engineering of complex decentralized AI systems. Code is available at: https://github.com/haoyuan-l/Helmsman.

The prevailing paradigm for enhancing the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) revolves around post-training on high-quality, reasoning-intensive data. While emerging literature suggests that reasoning data is increasingly incorporated also during the mid-training stage---a practice that is relatively more proprietary and less openly characterized---the role of such data in pretraining remains unclear. In particular, due to the opaqueness of pretraining corpora in most frontier models, the effect of reasoning data introduced at different phases of pre- and/or post-training is relatively less reported in the scientific literature. This raises several important but unsettled questions: Is adding reasoning data earlier during pre-training any better than introducing it during post-training, when the token counts are controlled? Could earlier inclusion risk overfitting and harm generalization, or instead establish durable foundations that later fine-tuning cannot recover? To address these questions, we conduct the first systematic study of how reasoning data—varying in scale, diversity, and quality—affects LLM performance when introduced at different stages of training. Our findings reveal that front-loading reasoning data into pretraining is critical (19% average gain), establishing foundational capabilities that cannot be fully replicated by later-stage SFT, even with more data. We uncover an asymmetric principle for optimal data allocation: pretraining benefits most from broad diversity in reasoning patterns (11% average gain), while SFT is more sensitive to data quality (15% average gain with high quality data). Furthermore, we show that high-quality pretraining data has latent effects, activated only after SFT, and that naively scaling SFT data can be detrimental, washing away the benefits of early reasoning injection. Collectively, our results challenge the conventional separation of language modeling and reasoning, providing a principled guide for strategically allocating data across the entire training pipeline to build more capable models.

In dynamic financial market characterized by shifting regimes, how can we make effective investment decisions under the changing 1) market regimes and 2) their impact? Among many research fields in financial AI, portfolio allocation stands out as one of the most practically significant areas. Consequently, numerous researchers and financial institutions continually seek approaches that improve the risk–reward trade-off and strive to apply them in real-world investment scenarios. However, achieving robust risk-adjusted performance is extremely challenging, because each asset's return and volatility fluctuate according to the shifting market regime. In response, modern portfolio theory (MPT) addresses this issue by solving for asset weights that maximize a risk–reward objective, using estimates of the return mean and covariance from historical returns. Reinforcement learning (RL) frameworks have been introduced to directly decide portfolio allocations by optimizing risk‑adjusted objectives using asset prices and macroeconomic indices. In this work, we propose STABLE (Shift-Tolerant Allocation with Black-Litterman Using Conditional Diffusion Estimates), which combines a diffusion-based generative model that captures regime shifts with an estimation-based portfolio allocation module that maximizes expected risk-adjusted return. STABLE takes macroeconomic context and asset-specific signals as inputs and generates per-stock return trajectories that reflect the prevailing macro regime while preserving firm-specific dynamics. This yields regime-aware predictive return distributions at the single-stock level together with a coherent covariance structure, which are then incorporated as investor views within a Black-Litterman allocation module to obtain risk-diversified portfolio weights. Empirically, STABLE delivers superior portfolio outcomes, achieving up to 122.9% higher Sharpe ratios with reduced drawdowns across major equity markets. It also attains state‑of‑the‑art time‑series estimation, lowering MSE by up to 15.7% compared with generative baselines.

Local non-stationarity is pivotal to solving partial differential equations (PDEs). However, in operator learning, the spatially local information inherent in the data is often overlooked. Even when explicitly modeled, it is usually collapsed into local superpositions within the model architecture, preventing full exploitation of local features in physical phenomena. To address this limitation, our paper proposes a novel Riesz Neural Operator (RNO) based on the spectral derivative representation. Since PDEs are fundamentally governed by local derivatives, RNO leverages the Riesz transform, a natural spectral representation of derivatives, to mix global spectral information with local directional variations. This approach allows the RNO to outperform existing operators in complex scenarios that require sensitivity to local detail. Our design bridges the gap between physical interpretability and local dynamics. Experimental results demonstrate that the RNO consistently achieves superior prediction accuracy and generalization performance compared to existing approaches across various benchmark PDE problems and complex real-world datasets, presenting superior non-linear reconstruction capability in model analysis.

Deep reasoning is fundamental for solving complex tasks, especially in vision-centric scenarios that demand sequential, multimodal understanding. However, existing benchmarks typically evaluate agents with fully synthetic, single-turn queries, limited visual modalities, and lack a framework to assess reasoning quality over multiple steps as required in real-world settings. To address this, we introduce Agent-X, a large-scale benchmark for evaluating vision-centric agents’ multistep and deep reasoning capabilities in real-world, multimodal settings. AgentX features 828 agentic tasks with authentic visual contexts, including images, multi-image comparisons, videos, and instructional text. These tasks span six major agentic environments: general visual reasoning, web browsing, security and surveillance, autonomous driving, sports, and math reasoning. Our benchmark requires agents to integrate tool use with explicit, stepwise decision-making in these diverse settings. In addition, we propose a fine-grained, step-level evaluation framework that assesses the correctness and logical coherence of each reasoning step and the effectiveness of tool usage throughout the task. Our results reveal that even the best-performing models, including GPT, Gemini, and Qwen families, struggle to solve multi-step vision tasks, achieving less than 50% full-chain success. These findings highlight key bottlenecks in current LMM reasoning and tool-use capabilities and identify future research directions in vision-centric agentic reasoning models

Neural networks trained with gradient descent often learn solutions of increasing complexity over time, a phenomenon known as simplicity bias. Despite being widely observed across architectures, existing theoretical treatments lack a unifying framework. We present a theoretical framework that explains a simplicity bias arising from saddle-to-saddle learning dynamics for a general class of neural networks, incorporating fully-connected, convolutional, and attention-based architectures. Here, simple means expressible with few hidden units, i.e., hidden neurons, convolutional kernels, or attention heads. Specifically, we show that linear networks learn solutions of increasing rank, ReLU networks learn solutions with an increasing number of kinks, convolutional networks learn solutions with an increasing number of convolutional kernels, and self-attention models learn solutions with an increasing number of attention heads. By analyzing fixed points, invariant manifolds, and dynamics of gradient descent learning, we show that saddle-to-saddle dynamics operates by iteratively evolving near an invariant manifold, approaching a saddle, and switching to another invariant manifold. Our analysis also illuminates the effects of data distribution and initialization on the duration and number of plateaus in learning, dissociating previously confounding factors. Overall, our theory offers a framework for understanding when and why gradient descent progressively learns increasingly complex solutions.

Understanding simplicity biases in deep learning offers a promising path toward developing reliable AI. A common metric for this, inspired by Boolean function analysis, is average sensitivity, which captures a model's robustness to single-token perturbations. We argue that average sensitivity has two key limitations: it lacks a natural generalization to real-valued domains and fails to explain the "junta-like" input dependence we empirically observe in modern LLMs. To address these limitations, we propose *noise stability* as a more comprehensive simplicity metric. Noise stability expresses a model's robustness to correlated noise applied to *all* input coordinates simultaneously. We provide a theoretical analysis of noise stability for single-layer attention and ReLU MLP layers and tackle the multi-layer propagation problem with a covariance interval propagation approach. Building on this theory, we develop a practical *noise stability regularization* method. Experiments on algorithmic and next-token-prediction tasks show that our regularizer consistently catalyzes grokking and accelerates training by approximately $35$\% and $75$\% respectively. Our results establish noise stability as a powerful tool for understanding and improving modern Transformers.

Test-time prompt tuning (TPT) has emerged as a promising technique for adapting large vision-language models (VLMs) to unseen tasks without relying on labeled data. However, the lack of dispersion between textual features can hurt calibration performance, which raises concerns about VLMs' reliability, trustworthiness, and safety. Current TPT approaches primarily focus on improving prompt calibration by either maximizing average textual feature dispersion or enforcing orthogonality constraints to encourage angular separation. However, these methods may not always have optimal angular separation between class-wise textual features, which implies overlooking the critical role of angular diversity. To address this, we propose A-TPT, a novel TPT framework that introduces angular diversity to encourage uniformity in the distribution of normalized textual features induced by corresponding learnable prompts. This uniformity is achieved by maximizing the minimum pairwise angular distance between features on the unit hypersphere. We show that our approach consistently surpasses state-of-the-art TPT methods in reducing the aggregate average calibration error while maintaining comparable accuracy through extensive experiments with various backbones on different datasets. Notably, our approach exhibits superior zero-shot calibration performance on natural distribution shifts and generalizes well to medical datasets. We provide extensive analyses, including theoretical aspects, to establish the grounding of A-TPT. These results highlight the potency of promoting angular diversity to achieve well-dispersed textual features, significantly improving VLM calibration during test-time adaptation. Our code will be made publicly available.

Determining the binding pose of a ligand to a protein, known as molecular docking, is a fundamental task in drug discovery. Generative approaches promise faster, improved, and more diverse pose sampling than physics-based methods, but are often hindered by chemically implausible outputs, poor generalisability, and high computational cost. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel fragmentation scheme, leveraging inductive biases from structural chemistry, to decompose ligands into rigid-body fragments. Building on this decomposition, we present SigmaDock, an SE(3) Riemannian diffusion model that generates poses by learning to reassemble these rigid bodies within the binding pocket. By operating at the level of fragments in SE(3), SigmaDock exploits well-established geometric priors while avoiding overly complex diffusion processes and unstable training dynamics. Experimentally, we show SigmaDock achieves state-of-the-art performance, reaching Top-1 success rates (RMSD <2 & PB-valid) above 79.9% on the PoseBusters set, compared to 12.7-32.8% reported by recent deep learning approaches, whilst demonstrating consistent generalisation to unseen proteins. SigmaDock is the first deep learning approach to surpass classical physics-based docking under the PB train-test split, marking a significant leap forward in the reliability and feasibility of deep learning for molecular modelling.