ICLR 2026 论文列表

International Conference on Learning Representations

录用类型

5,358篇论文

按官方录用论文列表统计,可能与会议公布的数字略有出入。

  • Oral
    2244.2%
  • Poster
    5,13495.8%

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RoboPARA: Dual-Arm Robot Planning with Parallel Allocation and Recomposition Across Tasks

Shiying Duan, Pei Ren, Nanxiang Jiang, Zhengping Che, Jian Tang, Zhaoxin Fan, Yifan Sun, Wenjun Wu

展开摘要

Dual-arm robots play a crucial role in improving efficiency and flexibility in complex multitasking scenarios. While existing methods have achieved promising results in task planning, they often fail to fully optimize task parallelism, limiting the potential of dual-arm collaboration. To address this issue, we propose RoboPARA, a novel large language model (LLM)-driven framework for dual-arm task parallelism planning. RoboPARA employs a two-stage process: (1) Dependency Graph-based Planning Candidates Generation, which constructs directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to model task dependencies and eliminate redundancy, and (2) Graph Re-Traversal-based Dual-Arm Parallel Planning, which optimizes DAG traversal to maximize parallelism while maintaining task coherence. In addition, we introduce the Cross-Scenario Dual-Arm Parallel Task dataset (X-DAPT dataset), the first dataset specifically designed to evaluate dual-arm task parallelism across diverse scenarios and difficulty levels. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RoboPARA significantly outperforms existing planning methods, achieving higher efficiency and reliability, particularly in complex task combinations.Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/AiDuanshiying/RoboPARA.

Poster
Domain Expansion: A Latent Space Construction Framework for Multi-Task Learning

Chi-Yao Huang, Khoa Vo, Aayush Atul Verma, Duo Lu, Yezhou Yang

展开摘要

Training a single network with multiple objectives often leads to conflicting gradients that degrade shared representations, forcing them into a compromised state that is suboptimal for any single task—a problem we term latent representation collapse. We introduce Domain Expansion, a framework that prevents these conflicts by restructuring the latent space itself. Our framework uses a novel orthogonal pooling to construct a latent space where each objective is assigned to a mutually orthogonal subspace. We validate our approach on the ShapeNet benchmark, simultaneously training a model for object classification and pose estimation. Our experiments demonstrate that this structure not only prevents collapse but also yields an explicit, interpretable, and compositional latent space where concepts can be directly manipulated.

Poster
Compositional Diffusion with Guided search for Long-Horizon Planning

Utkarsh Aashu Mishra, David He, Yongxin Chen, Danfei Xu

展开摘要

Generative models have emerged as powerful tools for planning, with compositional approaches offering particular promise for modeling long-horizon task distributions by composing together local, modular generative models. This compositional paradigm spans diverse domains, from multi-step manipulation planning to panoramic image synthesis to long video generation. However, compositional generative models face a critical challenge: when local distributions are multimodal, existing composition methods average incompatible modes, producing plans that are neither locally feasible nor globally coherent. We propose Compositional Diffusion with Guided Search (CDGS), which addresses this \emph{mode averaging} problem by embedding search directly within the diffusion denoising process. Our method explores diverse combinations of local modes through population-based sampling, prunes infeasible candidates using likelihood-based filtering, and enforces global consistency through iterative resampling between overlapping segments. CDGS matches oracle performance on seven robot manipulation tasks, outperforming baselines that lack compositionality or require long-horizon training data. The approach generalizes across domains, enabling coherent text-guided panoramic images and long videos through effective local-to-global message passing. More details: https://cdgsearch.github.io/

Oral
Distributional Equivalence in Linear Non-Gaussian Latent-Variable Cyclic Causal Models: Characterization and Learning

Haoyue Dai, Immanuel Albrecht, Peter Spirtes, Kun Zhang

展开摘要

Causal discovery with latent variables is a fundamental task. Yet most existing methods rely on strong structural assumptions, such as enforcing specific indicator patterns for latents or restricting how they can interact with others. We argue that a core obstacle to a general, structural-assumption-free approach is the lack of an equivalence characterization: without knowing what can be identified, one generally cannot design methods for how to identify it. In this work, we aim to close this gap for linear non-Gaussian models. We establish the graphical criterion for when two graphs with arbitrary latent structure and cycles are distributionally equivalent, that is, they induce the same observed distribution set. Key to our approach is a new tool, edge rank constraints, which fills a missing piece in the toolbox for latent-variable causal discovery in even broader settings. We further provide a procedure to traverse the whole equivalence class and develop an algorithm to recover models from data up to such equivalence. To our knowledge, this is the first equivalence characterization with latent variables in any parametric setting without structural assumptions, and hence the first structural-assumption-free discovery method. Code and an interactive demo are available at https://equiv.cc.

Oral
Inference-time scaling of diffusion models through classical search

XiangCheng Zhang, Haowei Lin, Haotian Ye, James Zou, Jianzhu Ma, Yitao Liang, Yilun Du

展开摘要

Classical search algorithms have long underpinned modern artificial intelligence. In this work, we tackle the challenge of inference-time control in diffusion models—adapting generated outputs to meet diverse test-time objectives—using principles from classical search. We propose a general framework that orchestrates local and global search to efficiently navigate the generative space. It performs compute-efficient global exploration using breadth-first and depth-first tree search and employs a theoretically grounded, scalable local search via annealed Langevin MCMC. We evaluate our approach on a range of challenging domains, including planning, offline reinforcement learning, and image generation, and observe significant gains in both performance and efficiency over baseline methods. These results demonstrate that classical search offers a principled and practical foundation for inference-time scaling in diffusion models. By jointly scaling local and global search for the first time, our framework establishes a new Pareto frontier across challenging decision-making domains.

Poster
Not All Bits Are Equal: How Model Scale Changes Memory-Optimal Reasoning

Junhyuck Kim, Ethan Ewer, Taehong Moon, Jongho Park, Dimitris Papailiopoulos

展开摘要

While 4-bit quantization has emerged as a memory-optimal choice for non-reasoning models and zero-shot tasks across scales, we show that this universal prescription fails for reasoning models, where KV cache rather than model size can dominate memory. Through systematic experiments on mathematical, code generation, and knowledge-intensive reasoning tasks, we find a scale-dependent trade-off: models with an effective size below 8-bit 4B parameters achieve better accuracy by allocating memory to larger weights, rather than longer generation, while larger models benefit from the opposite strategy. This scale threshold also determines when parallel scaling becomes memory-efficient and whether KV cache eviction outperforms KV quantization. Our findings show that memory optimization for LLMs cannot be scale-agnostic, while providing principled guidelines: for small reasoning models, prioritize model capacity over test-time compute, while for large ones, maximize test-time compute. Our results suggest that optimizing reasoning models for deployment requires fundamentally different strategies than those established for non-reasoning ones.

Poster
Enabling arbitrary inference in spatio-temporal dynamic systems: A physics-inspired perspective

Yan Ge, Zhengyang Zhou, Qihe Huang, Yuxuan Liang, Yang Wang

展开摘要

Modern spatio-temporal learning techniques usually exploit sampled discrete observations to foresee the future. Actually, spatio-temporal dynamics are continuous and evolve everytime and everywhere, thus modeling spatio-temporal dynamics in a continuous space can be long-standing challenge. Existing deep learning architectures often fail to generalize to unseen regions or graph topologies, while many physics-driven approaches are confined to Euclidean grids and scale poorly to complex graph structures. To address this gap, we propose PhySTA, a physics-inspired spatio-temporal learning framework designed for efficient and scalable arbitrary inference over graph-structured data. PhySTA integrates two key modules, i.e., (1) Continuous Operator-based Spectrum-Temporal Learning (CoSTL), which leverages a Graph-Time Fourier Neural Operator combined with Time-Gated Spectral Segmentation Perception to model continuous dynamics in operator space, (2) Adaptive Multi-scale Interaction (AMI) that constructs multi-scale subgraphs and introduces node-edge coupled convolution to capture discrete interaction patterns and refine continuous predictions. By bridging operator learning with node-edge-graph interaction, PhySTA achieves both continuity-aware dynamic modeling and hierarchical interactive refinement. Extensive experiments across large-scale benchmarks demonstrate that PhySTA attains state-of-the-art accuracy while reducing computation cost and lowering parameter overhead.

Poster
Single-stream Policy Optimization

Zhongwen Xu, Zihan Ding

展开摘要

We revisit policy-gradient optimization for Large Language Models (LLMs) from a single-stream perspective. Prevailing group-based methods like GRPO reduce variance with on-the-fly baselines but suffer from critical flaws: frequent degenerate groups erase learning signals, and synchronization barriers hinder scalability. We introduce Single-stream Policy Optimization (SPO), which eliminates these issues by design. SPO replaces per-group baselines with a persistent, KL-adaptive value tracker and normalizes advantages globally across the batch, providing a stable, low-variance learning signal for every sample. Being group-free, SPO enables higher throughput and scales effectively in long-horizon or tool-integrated settings where generation times vary. Furthermore, the persistent value tracker naturally enables an adaptive curriculum via prioritized sampling. Experiments using Qwen3-8B show that SPO converges more smoothly and attains higher accuracy than GRPO, while eliminating computation wasted on degenerate groups. Ablation studies confirm that SPO's gains stem from its principled approach to baseline estimation and advantage normalization, offering a more robust and efficient path for LLM reasoning. Across five hard math benchmarks with Qwen3-8B, SPO improves the average maj@32 by $+3.4\ \text{percentage points} (\mathrm{pp})$ over GRPO, driven by substantial absolute point gains on challenging datasets, including $+7.3\ \mathrm{pp}$ on BRUMO 25, $+4.4\ \mathrm{pp}$ on AIME 25, $+3.3\ \mathrm{pp}$ on HMMT 25, and achieves consistent relative gain in pass@$k$ across the evaluated $k$ values. SPO's success challenges the prevailing trend of adding incidental complexity to RL algorithms, highlighting a path where fundamental principles, not architectural workarounds, drive the next wave of progress in LLM reasoning.

Poster
GeomMotif: A Benchmark for Arbitrary Geometric Preservation in Protein Generation

Pavel Strashnov, Andrey Shevtsov, Viacheslav Meshchaninov, Olga Kardymon, Dmitry Vetrov

展开摘要

Motif scaffolding in protein design involves generating complete protein structures while preserving the 3D geometry of designated structural fragments, analogous to image outpainting in computer vision. Current benchmarks focus on functional motifs, leaving general geometric preservation capabilities largely untested. We introduce GeomMotif, a systematic benchmark that evaluates arbitrary structural fragment preservation without requiring functional specificity. We construct 57 benchmark tasks, each containing one or two motifs with up to 7 continuous fragments, by sampling from the Protein Data Bank (PDB) to ensure a ground-truth, solvable conformation for every problem. The tasks are characterized by comprehensive structural and physicochemical properties: size, geometric context, secondary structure, hydrophobicity, charge, and degree of burial. These features enable detailed performance analysis beyond simple success rates, revealing model-specific strengths and limitations. We evaluate models using scRMSD and pLDDT for geometric fidelity and clustering for structural diversity and novelty. Our results show that sequence-based and structure-based approaches find different tasks challenging, and that geometric preservation varies significantly with structural and physicochemical context. GeomMotif provides insights complementary to function-focused benchmarks and establishes a foundation for improving protein generative models.

Poster
Bayesian Post Training Enhancement of Regression Models with Calibrated Rankings

Kevin Tirta Wijaya, Bing Xu Hu, Hans-peter Seidel, Wojciech Matusik, Vahid Babaei

展开摘要

Accurate regression models are essential for scientific discovery, yet high-quality numeric labels are scarce and expensive. In contrast, rankings (especially pairwise) are easier to obtain from domain experts or artificial intelligence (AI) judges. We introduce Bayesian Enhancement with Calibrated Ranking (BAYES-ECR), a novel plug-and-play method that improves a base regressor’s prediction for a query by leveraging pairwise rankings between the query and reference items with known labels. BAYES-ECR performs a Bayesian update that combines a Gaussian likelihood from the regressor and the Bradley-Terry likelihood from the ranker. This yields a strictly log-concave posterior with a unique maximum likelihood solution and fast Newton updates. We show that prior state-of-the-art is a special case of our framework, and we identify a fundamental failure mode: Bradley-Terry likelihoods suffer from scale mismatch and curvature dominance when the number of reference items is large, which can degrade performance. From this analysis, we derive a calibration method to adjust the information originating from the expert rankings. BAYES-ECR shows a stunning 97.65% median improvement across 12 datasets over previous state-of-the-art method using a realistically-accurate ranker, and runs efficiently on a consumer-grade CPU.

Poster
Residual Feature Integration is Sufficient to Prevent Negative Transfer

Yichen Xu, Ryumei Nakada, Linjun Zhang, Lexin Li

展开摘要

Transfer learning has become a central paradigm in modern machine learning, yet it suffers from the long-standing problem of negative transfer, where leveraging source representations can harm rather than help performance on the target task. Although empirical remedies have been proposed, there remains little theoretical understanding of how to reliably avoid negative transfer. In this paper, we inves­tigate a simple yet remarkably effective strategy: augmenting frozen, pretrained source-side features with a trainable target-side encoder that adapts target features to capture residual signals overlooked by models pretrained on the source data. We show this residual feature integration strategy is sufficient to provably prevent negative transfer, by establishing theoretical guarantees that it has no worse con­vergence rate than training from scratch under the informative class of target dis­tributions up to logarithmic factors, and that the convergence rate can transition seamlessly from nonparametric to near-parametric when source representations are informative. To our knowledge, this is the first theoretical work that ensures protection against negative transfer. We carry out extensive numerical experiments across image, text and tabular benchmarks, and empirically verify that the method consistently safeguards performance under distribution shift, label noise, seman­tic perturbation, and class imbalance. We additionally demonstrate that this resid­ual integration mechanism uniquely supports adapt-time multimodality extension, enabling a pretrained single-cell foundation model to incorporate spatial signals for lymph-node anatomical classification despite the source model being trained without them. Our study thus advances the theory of safe transfer learning, and provides a principled approach that is simple, robust, architecture-agnostic, and broadly applicable.

Poster
Interpolation-Based Conditioning of Flow Matching Models for Bioisosteric Ligand Design

Yael Ziv, Martin Buttenschoen, Lukas Scheibelberger, Brian Marsden, Charlotte Deane

展开摘要

Fast, unconditional 3D generative models can now produce high-quality molecules, but adapting them for specific design tasks often requires costly retraining. To address this, we introduce Interpolate-Integrate and Replacement Guidance, two training-free, inference-time conditioning strategies that provide control over E(3)-equivariant flow-matching models. Our methods generate bioisosteric 3D molecules by conditioning on seed ligands or fragment sets to preserve key determinants like shape and pharmacophore patterns, without requiring the original fragment atoms to be present. We demonstrate their effectiveness on three drug-relevant tasks: natural product ligand hopping, bioisosteric fragment merging, and pharmacophore merging.

Poster
Time Is All It Takes: Spike-Retiming Attacks on Event-Driven Spiking Neural Networks

Yi Yu, Qixin Zhang, Shuhan Ye, Xun Lin, Qianshan Wei, Kun Wang, Wenhan Yang, Dacheng Tao, Xudong Jiang

展开摘要

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) compute with discrete spikes and exploit temporal structure, yet most adversarial attacks change intensities or event counts instead of timing. We study a timing-only adversary that retimes existing spikes while preserving spike counts and amplitudes in event-driven SNNs, thus remaining rate-preserving. We formalize a capacity-1 spike-retiming threat model with a unified trio of budgets: per-spike jitter $B_{\infty}$, total delay $B_{1}$, and tamper count $B_{0}$. Feasible adversarial examples must satisfy timeline consistency and non-overlap, which makes the search space discrete and constrained. To optimize such retimings at scale, we use projected-in-the-loop (PIL) optimization: shift-probability logits yield a differentiable soft retiming for backpropagation, and a strict projection in the forward pass produces a feasible discrete schedule that satisfies capacity-1, non-overlap, and the chosen budget at every step. The objective maximizes task loss on the projected input and adds a capacity regularizer together with budget-aware penalties, which stabilizes gradients and aligns optimization with evaluation. Across event-driven benchmarks (CIFAR10-DVS, DVS-Gesture, N-MNIST) and diverse SNN architectures, we evaluate under binary and integer event grids and a range of retiming budgets, and also test models trained with timing-aware adversarial training designed to counter timing-only attacks. For example, on DVS-Gesture the attack attains high success (over 90\%) while touching fewer than 2\% of spikes under ${B}_{0}$. Taken together, our results show that spike retiming is a practical and stealthy attack surface that current defenses struggle to counter, providing a clear reference for temporal robustness in event-driven SNNs. Code is available at https://github.com/yuyi-sd/Spike-Retiming-Attacks.

Poster
Image Quality Assessment for Embodied AI

Chunyi Li, Jiahao Xiao, Jianbo Zhang, Farong Wen, Zicheng Zhang, Yuan Tian, Xiangyang Zhu, Xiaohong Liu, Zhengxue Cheng, Weisi Lin, Guangtao Zhai

展开摘要

Embodied AI has developed rapidly in recent years, but it is still mainly deployed in laboratories, with various distortions in the Real-world limiting its application. Traditionally, Image Quality Assessment (IQA) methods are applied to predict human preferences for distorted images; however, there is no IQA method to assess the usability of an image in embodied tasks, namely, the perceptual quality for robots. To provide accurate and reliable quality indicators for future embodied scenarios, we first propose the topic: IQA for Embodied AI. Specifically, we (1) based on the Mertonian system and meta-cognitive theory, constructed a perception-cognition-decision-execution pipeline and defined a comprehensive subjective score collection process; (2) established the Embodied-IQA database, containing over 30k reference/distorted image pairs, with more than 5m fine-grained annotations provided by Vision Language Models/Vision Language Action-models/Real-world robots; (3) trained and validated the performance of mainstream IQA methods on Embodied-IQA, demonstrating the need to develop more accurate quality indicators for Embodied AI. We sincerely hope that through evaluation, we can promote the application of Embodied AI under complex distortions in the Real-world.

Poster
OmniSTVG: Toward Spatio-Temporal Omni-Object Video Grounding

Jiali Yao, Xin Gu, Xinran Deng, Mengrui Dai, Bing Fan, Zhipeng Zhang, Yan Huang, Heng Fan, Libo Zhang

展开摘要

We introduce spatio-temporal omni-object video grounding, dubbed $\textbf{OmniSTVG}$, a new STVG task aiming to localize spatially and temporally all targets mentioned in the textual query within videos. Compared to classic STVG locating only a single target, OmniSTVG enables localization of not only an arbitrary number of text-referred targets but also their interacting counterparts in the query from the video, making it more flexible and practical in real scenarios for comprehensive understanding. In order to facilitate exploration of OmniSTVG, we propose $\textbf{BOSTVG}$, a large-scale benchmark dedicated to OmniSTVG. Specifically, BOSTVG contains 10,018 videos with 10.2M frames and covers a wide selection of 287 classes from diverse scenarios. Each sequence, paired with a free-form textual query, encompasses a varying number of targets ranging from 1 to 10. To ensure high quality, each video is manually annotated with meticulous inspection and refinement. To our best knowledge, BOSTVG, to date, is the first and the largest benchmark for OmniSTVG. To encourage future research, we present a simple yet effective approach, named $\textbf{OmniTube}$, which, drawing inspiration from Transformer-based STVG methods, is specially designed for OmniSTVG and demonstrates promising results. By releasing BOSTVG, we hope to go beyond classic STVG by locating every object appearing in the query for more comprehensive understanding, opening up a new direction for STVG. Our benchmark and code will be released.

Poster
UIS-Digger: Towards Comprehensive Research Agent Systems for Real-world Unindexed Information Seeking

Chang Liu, Chuqiao Kuang, Tianyi Zhuang, Yuxin Cheng, Huichi Zhou, Xiaoguang Li, Lifeng Shang

展开摘要

Recent advancements in LLM-based information-seeking agents have achieved record-breaking performance on established benchmarks. However, these agents remain heavily reliant on search-engine-indexed knowledge, leaving a critical blind spot: Unindexed Information Seeking (UIS). This paper identifies and explores the UIS problem, where vital information is not captured by search engine crawlers, such as overlooked content, dynamic webpages, and embedded files. Despite its significance, UIS remains an underexplored challenge. To address this gap, we introduce UIS-QA, the first dedicated UIS benchmark, comprising 110 expert-annotated QA pairs. Notably, even state-of-the-art agents experience a drastic performance drop on UIS-QA (e.g., from 70.90 on GAIA and 46.70 on BrowseComp-zh to 24.55 on UIS-QA), underscoring the severity of the problem. To mitigate this, we propose UIS-Digger, a novel multi-agent framework that incorporates dual-mode browsing and enables simultaneous webpage searching and file parsing. With a relatively small $\sim$30B-parameter backbone LLM optimized using SFT and RFT training strategies, UIS-Digger sets a strong baseline at 26.36\%, outperforming systems integrating sophisticated LLMs such as O3 and GPT-4.1. This demonstrates the importance of proactive interaction with unindexed sources for effective and comprehensive information-seeking. Our work not only uncovers a fundamental limitation in current agent evaluation paradigms but also provides the first toolkit for advancing UIS research, defining a new and promising direction for robust information-seeking systems.

Poster
Selective Expert Guidance for Effective and Diverse Exploration in Reinforcement Learning of LLMs

Zishang Jiang, Jinyi Han, Tingyun Li, Xinyi Wang, Sihang Jiang, Zhaoqian Dai, Ma Shuguang, Fei Yu, Jiaqing Liang, Yanghua Xiao

展开摘要

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become a widely adopted technique for enhancing the reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the effectiveness of RLVR strongly depends on the capability of base models. This issue arises because it requires the model to have sufficient capability to perform high-quality exploration, which involves both effectiveness and diversity. Unfortunately, existing methods address this issue by imitating expert trajectories, which improve effectiveness but neglect diversity. To address this, we argue that the expert only needs to provide guidance only at critical decision points rather than the entire reasoning path. Based on this insight, we propose MENTOR: Mixed-policy Expert Navigation for Token-level Optimization of Reasoning, a framework that provides expert guidance only at critical decision points to perform effective and diverse exploration in RLVR. Extensive experiments show that MENTOR enables models capture the essence of expert strategies rather than surface imitation, thereby performing high-quality exploration and achieving superior overall performance. Our code is available online.

Poster
Understanding Transformers for Time Series: Rank Structure, Flow-of-ranks, and Compressibility

Annan Yu, Danielle C. Maddix, Boran Han, Xiyuan Zhang, Abdul Fatir Ansari, Oleksandr Shchur, Christos Faloutsos, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Michael W. Mahoney, Bernie Wang

展开摘要

Transformers are widely used across data modalities, and yet the principles distilled from text models often transfer imperfectly. In this paper, we analyze Transformers through the lens of rank structure. Our focus is on the time series setting, where the structural properties of the data remarkably differ from those of text or vision. Time-series embeddings, unlike text or vision, exhibit sharply decaying singular spectra: small patch sizes and smooth continuous mappings concentrate the data into low-rank subspaces. From this, we prove that the associated $Q/K/V$ projections admit accurate low-rank approximations, and that attention layers become compressible in proportion to the decay of the embedding spectrum. We introduce the concept of *flow-of-ranks*, a mechanism by which nonlinear mixing across depth inflates the rank, explaining why early layers are most amenable to compression and why rank schedules should grow with depth. Guided by these results, we compress Chronos, a large time series foundation model, achieving a reduction of $65\\%$ in inference time and $81\\%$ in memory without loss of accuracy. These findings provide principled guidance for allocating width, depth, and heads in time series foundation models, and for exploiting their inherent compressibility.

Poster
Navigating the Accuracy-Size Trade-Off with Flexible Model Merging

Akash Dhasade, Divyansh Jhunjhunwala, Milos Vujasinovic, Gauri Joshi, Anne-Marie Kermarrec

展开摘要

Model merging has emerged as an efficient method to combine multiple single-task fine-tuned models. The merged model can enjoy multi-task capabilities without expensive training. While promising, merging into a single model often suffers from an accuracy gap with respect to individual fine-tuned models. On the other hand, deploying all individual fine-tuned models incurs high storage costs. We propose FlexMerge, a novel data-free model merging framework that: (a) flexibly generates merged models of varying sizes, spanning the full spectrum from a single merged model to retaining all individual fine-tuned models; and (b) supports multiple merging algorithms in a unified framework. Using FlexMerge, we systematically characterize the accuracy–size trade-off of different algorithms. Our study reveals two key findings: first, even modestly larger merged models can yield steep accuracy gains (up to 13.5% when just doubling the size); second, algorithm rankings are not consistent as size increases, with some methods overtaking others beyond the one-model regime. These results uncover a new design dimension for model merging: developing and comparing algorithms across the full spectrum of sizes rather than only at the single-model limit. Extensive experiments on vision and NLP benchmarks, with up to 30 tasks, confirm the generality and practicality of FlexMerge.

Poster
Reliable Probabilistic Forecasting of Irregular Time Series through Marginalization-Consistent Flows

Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi, Randolf Scholz, Christian Klötergens, Kiran Madhusudhanan, Stefan Born, Lars Schmidt-Thieme

展开摘要

Probabilistic forecasting of joint distributions for irregular time series with missing values is an underexplored area in machine learning. Existing models, such as Gaussian Process Regression and ProFITi, are limited: while ProFITi is highly expressive due to its use of normalizing flows, it often produces unrealistic predictions because it lacks marginalization consistency—marginal distributions of subsets of variables may not match those predicted directly, leading to inaccurate marginal forecasts when trained on joints. We propose MOSES (Mixtures of Separable Flows), a novel model that parametrizes a stochastic process via a mixture of normalizing flows, where each component combines a latent multivariate Gaussian with separable univariate transformations. This design allows MOSES to be analytically marginalized, enabling accurate and reliable predictions for various probabilistic queries. Experiments on four datasets show that MOSES achieves highly accurate joint and marginal predictions. Thanks to its inherent marginalization consistency, MOSES significantly outperforms all baselines—including ProFITi—on marginal predictions. For joint predictions, it beats all other consistent models and performs close to or slightly worse than ProFITi.

Poster