ICLR 2024 论文列表

International Conference on Learning Representations

录用类型

2,260篇论文

按官方录用论文列表统计,可能与会议公布的数字略有出入。

  • Oral
    863.8%
  • Spotlight
    36716.2%
  • Poster
    1,80780.0%

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TEDDY: Trimming Edges with Degree-based Discrimination Strategy

Hyunjin Seo, Jihun Yun, Eunho Yang

展开摘要

Since the pioneering work on the lottery ticket hypothesis for graph neural networks (GNNs) was proposed in Chen et al. (2021), the study on finding graph lottery tickets (GLT) has become one of the pivotal focus in the GNN community, inspiring researchers to discover sparser GLT while achieving comparable performance to original dense networks. In parallel, the graph structure has gained substantial attention as a crucial factor in GNN training dynamics, also elucidated by several recent studies. Despite this, contemporary studies on GLT, in general, have not fully exploited inherent pathways in the graph structure and identified tickets in an iterative manner, which is time-consuming and inefficient. To address these limitations, we introduce **TEDDY**, a one-shot edge sparsification framework that leverages structural information by incorporating *edge-degree* statistics. Following the edge sparsification, we encourage the parameter sparsity during training via simple projected gradient descent on the $\ell_0$ ball. Given the target sparsity levels for both the graph structure and the model parameters, our TEDDY facilitates efficient and rapid realization of GLT within a *single* training. Remarkably, our experimental results demonstrate that TEDDY significantly surpasses conventional iterative approaches in generalization, even when conducting one-shot sparsification that solely utilizes graph structures, without taking feature information into account.

Poster
PandaLM: An Automatic Evaluation Benchmark for LLM Instruction Tuning Optimization

Yidong Wang, Zhuohao Yu, Wenjin Yao, Zhengran Zeng, Linyi Yang, Cunxiang Wang, Hao Chen, Chaoya Jiang, Rui Xie, Jindong Wang, Xing Xie, Wei Ye, Shikun Zhang, Yue Zhang

展开摘要

Instruction tuning large language models (LLMs) remains a challenging task, owing to the complexity of hyperparameter selection and the difficulty involved in evaluating the tuned models. To determine the optimal hyperparameters, an automatic, robust, and reliable evaluation benchmark is essential. However, establishing such a benchmark is not a trivial task due to the challenges associated with evaluation accuracy and privacy protection. In response to these challenges, we introduce a judge large language model, named PandaLM, which is trained to distinguish the superior model given several LLMs. PandaLM's focus extends beyond just the objective correctness of responses, which is the main focus of traditional evaluation datasets. It addresses vital subjective factors such as relative conciseness, clarity, adherence to instructions, comprehensiveness, and formality. To ensure the reliability of PandaLM, we collect a diverse human-annotated test dataset, where all contexts are generated by humans and labels are aligned with human preferences. Our findings reveal that PandaLM-7B offers a performance comparable to both GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Impressively, PandaLM-70B surpasses their performance. PandaLM enables the evaluation of LLM to be fairer but with less cost, evidenced by significant improvements achieved by models tuned through PandaLM compared to their counterparts trained with default Alpaca's hyperparameters. In addition, PandaLM does not depend on API-based evaluations, thus avoiding potential data leakage.

Poster
Multiscale Positive-Unlabeled Detection of AI-Generated Texts

Yuchuan Tian, Hanting Chen, Xutao Wang, Zheyuan Bai, Qinghua Zhang, Ruifeng Li, Chao Xu, Yunhe Wang

展开摘要

Recent releases of Large Language Models (LLMs), e.g. ChatGPT, are astonishing at generating human-like texts, but they may impact the authenticity of texts. Previous works proposed methods to detect these AI-generated texts, including simple ML classifiers, pretrained-model-based zero-shot methods, and finetuned language classification models. However, mainstream detectors always fail on short texts, like SMSes, Tweets, and reviews. In this paper, a Multiscale Positive-Unlabeled (MPU) training framework is proposed to address the difficulty of short-text detection without sacrificing long-texts. Firstly, we acknowledge the human-resemblance property of short machine texts, and rephrase AI text detection as a partial Positive-Unlabeled (PU) problem by regarding these short machine texts as partially "unlabeled". Then in this PU context, we propose the length-sensitive Multiscale PU Loss, where a recurrent model in abstraction is used to estimate positive priors of scale-variant corpora. Additionally, we introduce a Text Multiscaling module to enrich training corpora. Experiments show that our MPU method augments detection performance on long AI-generated texts, and significantly improves short-text detection of language model detectors. Language Models trained with MPU could outcompete existing detectors on various short-text and long-text detection benchmarks. The codes are available at https://github.com/mindspore-lab/mindone/tree/master/examples/detect_chatgpt and https://github.com/YuchuanTian/AIGC_text_detector.

Spotlight
MMICL: Empowering Vision-language Model with Multi-Modal In-Context Learning

Haozhe Zhao, Zefan Cai, Shuzheng Si, Xiaojian Ma, Kaikai An, Liang Chen, Zixuan Liu, Sheng Wang, Wenjuan Han, Baobao Chang

展开摘要

Since the resurgence of deep learning, vision-language models (VLMs) enhanced by large language models (LLMs) have grown exponentially in popularity. However, while LLMs can utilize extensive background knowledge and task information with in-context learning, most VLMs still struggle with understanding complex multi-modal prompts with multiple images, making VLMs less effective in downstream vision-language tasks. In this paper, we address the limitation above by 1) introducing vision-language Model with **M**ulti-**M**odal **I**n-**C**ontext **L**earning(MMICL), a new approach to allow the VLM to deal with multi-modal inputs efficiently; 2) proposing a novel context scheme to augment the in-context learning ability of the VLM; 3) constructing the Multi-modal In-Context Learning (MIC) dataset, designed to enhance the VLM's ability to understand complex multi-modal prompts. Our experiments confirm that MMICL achieves new state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on a wide range of general vision-language tasks, especially for complex benchmarks, including MME and MMBench. Our analysis demonstrates that MMICL effectively tackles the challenge of complex multi-modal prompt understanding and emerges the impressive ICL ability. Furthermore, we observe that MMICL successfully alleviates language bias in VLMs, a common issue for VLMs that often leads to hallucination when faced with extensive textual context. Our code, dataset, dataset tool, and model are available at https://github.com/PKUnlp-icler/MIC.

Poster
Implicit Neural Representation Inference for Low-Dimensional Bayesian Deep Learning

Panagiotis Dimitrakopoulos, Giorgos Sfikas, Christophoros Nikou

展开摘要

Bayesian inference is the standard for providing full predictive distributions with well calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, scaling to a modern, overparameterized deep learning setting typically comes at the cost of severe and restrictive approximations, sacrificing model predictive strength. With our approach, we factor model parameters as a function of deterministic and probabilistic components; the model is solved by combining maximum a posteriori estimation of the former, with inference over a low-dimensional, Implicit Neural Representation of the latter. This results in a solution that combines both predictive accuracy and good calibration, as it entails inducing stochasticity over the full set of model weights while being comparatively cheap to compute. Experimentally, our approach compares favorably to the state of the art, including much more expensive methods as well as less expressive posterior approximations over full network parameters.

Poster
An Intuitive Multi-Frequency Feature Representation for SO(3)-Equivariant Networks

Dongwon Son, Jaehyung Kim, Sanghyeon Son, Beomjoon Kim

展开摘要

The usage of 3D vision algorithms, such as shape reconstruction, remains limited because they require inputs to be at a fixed canonical rotation. Recently, a simple equivariant network, Vector Neuron (VN) has been proposed that can be easily used with the state-of-the-art 3D neural network (NN) architectures. However, its performance is limited because it is designed to use only three-dimensional features, which is insufficient to capture the details present in 3D data. In this paper, we introduce an equivariant feature representation for mapping a 3D point to a high-dimensional feature space. Our feature can discern multiple frequencies present in 3D data, which, as shown by Tancik et al. (2020), is the key to designing an expressive feature for 3D vision tasks. Our representation can be used as an input to VNs, and the results demonstrate that with our feature representation, VN captures more details, overcoming the limitation raised in its original paper.

Poster
When Scaling Meets LLM Finetuning: The Effect of Data, Model and Finetuning Method

Biao Zhang, Zhongtao Liu, Colin Cherry, Orhan Firat

展开摘要

While large language models (LLMs) often adopt finetuning to unlock their capabilities for downstream applications, our understanding on the inductive biases (especially the scaling properties) of different finetuning methods is still limited. To fill this gap, we conduct systematic experiments studying whether and how different scaling factors, including LLM model size, pretraining data size, new finetuning parameter size and finetuning data size, affect the finetuning performance. We consider two types of finetuning – full-model tuning (FMT) and parameter efficient tuning (PET, including prompt tuning and LoRA), and explore their scaling behaviors in the data-limited regime where the LLM model size substantially outweighs the finetuning data size. Based on two sets of pretrained bilingual LLMs from 1B to 16B and experiments on bilingual machine translation and multilingual summarization benchmarks, we find that 1) LLM finetuning follows a powerbased multiplicative joint scaling law between finetuning data size and each other scaling factor; 2) LLM finetuning benefits more from LLM model scaling than pretraining data scaling, and PET parameter scaling is generally ineffective; and 3) the optimal finetuning method is highly task- and finetuning data-dependent. We hope our findings could shed light on understanding, selecting and developing LLM finetuning methods.

Poster
Weatherproofing Retrieval for Localization with Generative AI and Geometric Consistency

Yannis Kalantidis, Mert Bülent Sarıyıldız, Rafael S. Rezende, Philippe Weinzaepfel, Diane Larlus, Gabriela Csurka

展开摘要

State-of-the-art visual localization approaches generally rely on a first image retrieval step whose role is crucial. Yet, retrieval often struggles when facing varying conditions, due to e.g. weather or time of day, with dramatic consequences on the visual localization accuracy. In this paper, we improve this retrieval step and tailor it to the final localization task. Among the several changes we advocate for, we propose to synthesize variants of the training set images, obtained from generative text-to-image models, in order to automatically expand the training set towards a number of nameable variations that particularly hurt visual localization. After expanding the training set, we propose a training approach that leverages the specificities and the underlying geometry of this mix of real and synthetic images. We experimentally show that those changes translate into large improvements for the most challenging visual localization datasets.

Poster
The Effective Horizon Explains Deep RL Performance in Stochastic Environments

Cassidy Laidlaw, Banghua Zhu, Stuart Russell, Anca Dragan

展开摘要

Reinforcement learning (RL) theory has largely focused on proving minimax sample complexity bounds. These require strategic exploration algorithms that use relatively limited function classes for representing the policy or value function. Our goal is to explain why deep RL algorithms often perform well in practice, despite using random exploration and much more expressive function classes like neural networks. Our work arrives at an explanation by showing that many stochastic MDPs can be solved by performing only a few steps of value iteration on the random policy’s Q function and then acting greedily. When this is true, we find that it is possible to separate the exploration and learning components of RL, making it much easier to analyze. We introduce a new RL algorithm, SQIRL, that iteratively learns a near-optimal policy by exploring randomly to collect rollouts and then performing a limited number of steps of fitted-Q iteration over those roll- outs. We find that any regression algorithm that satisfies basic in-distribution generalization properties can be used in SQIRL to efficiently solve common MDPs. This can explain why deep RL works with complex function approximators like neural networks, since it is empirically established that neural networks generalize well in-distribution. Furthermore, SQIRL explains why random exploration works well in practice, since we show many environments can be solved by effectively estimating the random policy’s Q-function and then applying zero or a few steps of value iteration. We leverage SQIRL to derive instance-dependent sample complexity bounds for RL that are exponential only in an “effective horizon” of lookahead—which is typically much smaller than the full horizon—and on the complexity of the class used for function approximation. Empirically, we also find that SQIRL performance strongly correlates with PPO and DQN performance in a variety of stochastic environments, supporting that our theoretical analysis is predictive of practical performance. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/cassidylaidlaw/effective-horizon.

Spotlight
Physics-Regulated Deep Reinforcement Learning: Invariant Embeddings

Hongpeng Cao, Yanbing Mao, Lui Sha, Marco Caccamo

展开摘要

This paper proposes the Phy-DRL: a physics-regulated deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework for safety-critical autonomous systems. The Phy-DRL has three distinguished invariant-embedding designs: i) residual action policy (i.e., integrating data-driven-DRL action policy and physics-model-based action policy), ii) automatically constructed safety-embedded reward, and iii) physics-model-guided neural network (NN) editing, including link editing and activation editing. Theoretically, the Phy-DRL exhibits 1) a mathematically provable safety guarantee and 2) strict compliance of critic and actor networks with physics knowledge about the action-value function and action policy. Finally, we evaluate the Phy-DRL on a cart-pole system and a quadruped robot. The experiments validate our theoretical results and demonstrate that Phy-DRL features guaranteed safety compared to purely data-driven DRL and solely model-based design while offering remarkably fewer learning parameters and fast training towards safety guarantee.

Spotlight
Interpreting CLIP's Image Representation via Text-Based Decomposition

Yossi Gandelsman, Alexei A. Efros, Jacob Steinhardt

展开摘要

We investigate the CLIP image encoder by analyzing how individual model components affect the final representation. We decompose the image representation as a sum across individual image patches, model layers, and attention heads, and use CLIP's text representation to interpret the summands. Interpreting the attention heads, we characterize each head's role by automatically finding text representations that span its output space, which reveals property-specific roles for many heads (e.g. location or shape). Next, interpreting the image patches, we uncover an emergent spatial localization within CLIP. Finally, we use this understanding to remove spurious features from CLIP and to create a strong zero-shot image segmenter. Our results indicate that scalable understanding of transformer models is attainable and can be used to repair and improve models.

Oral
Image2Sentence based Asymmetrical Zero-shot Composed Image Retrieval

Yongchao Du, Min Wang, Wengang Zhou, Shuping Hui, Houqiang Li

展开摘要

The task of composed image retrieval (CIR) aims to retrieve images based on the query image and the text describing the users' intent. Existing methods have made great progress with the advanced large vision-language (VL) model in CIR task, however, they generally suffer from two main issues: lack of labeled triplets for model training and difficulty of deployment on resource-restricted environments when deploying the large vision-language model. To tackle the above problems, we propose Image2Sentence based Asymmetric zero-shot composed image retrieval (ISA), which takes advantage of the VL model and only relies on unlabeled images for composition learning. In the framework, we propose a new adaptive token learner that maps an image to a sentence in the word embedding space of VL model. The sentence adaptively captures discriminative visual information and is further integrated with the text modifier. An asymmetric structure is devised for flexible deployment, in which the lightweight model is adopted for the query side while the large VL model is deployed on the gallery side. The global contrastive distillation and the local alignment regularization are adopted for the alignment between the light model and the VL model for CIR task. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed ISA could better cope with the real retrieval scenarios and further improve retrieval accuracy and efficiency.

Spotlight
Demystifying CLIP Data

Hu Xu, Saining Xie, Xiaoqing Tan, Po-Yao Huang, Russell Howes, Vasu Sharma, Shang-Wen Li, Gargi Ghosh, Luke Zettlemoyer, Christoph Feichtenhofer

展开摘要

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) is an approach that has advanced research and applications in computer vision, fueling modern recognition systems and generative models. We believe that the main ingredient to the success of CLIP is its \textit{data} and \textit{not} the \textit{model} architecture or pre-training {objective}. However, CLIP only provides very limited information about its data and how it has been collected, leading to works that aim to reproduce CLIP's data by filtering with its model parameters. In this work, we intend to reveal CLIP's data curation approach and in our pursuit of making it open to the community introduce Metadata-Curated Language-Image Pre-training (MetaCLIP). MetaCLIP takes a raw data pool and metadata (derived from CLIP's concepts) and yields a balanced subset over the metadata distribution. Our experimental study rigorously isolates the model and training settings, concentrating solely on data. MetaCLIP applied to CommonCrawl with 400M image-text data pairs outperforms CLIP's data on multiple standard benchmarks. In zero-shot ImageNet classification, MetaCLIP achieves 70.8\% accuracy, surpassing CLIP's 68.3\% on \mbox{ViT-B} models. Scaling to 1B data, while maintaining the same training budget, attains \textbf{72.4\%}. Our observations hold across various model sizes, exemplified by ViT-H achieving \textbf{80.5\%}, without any bells-and-whistles. Curation code and training data distribution over metadata will be made available.

Spotlight
How to Catch an AI Liar: Lie Detection in Black-Box LLMs by Asking Unrelated Questions

Lorenzo Pacchiardi, Alex James Chan, Sören Mindermann, Ilan Moscovitz, Alexa Yue Pan, Yarin Gal, Owain Evans, Jan M. Brauner

展开摘要

Large language models (LLMs) can “lie”, which we define as outputting false statements when incentivised to, despite “knowing” the truth in a demonstrable sense. LLMs might “lie”, for example, when instructed to output misinformation. Here, we develop a simple lie detector that requires neither access to the LLM’s activations (black-box) nor ground-truth knowledge of the fact in question. The detector works by asking a predefined set of unrelated follow-up questions after a suspected lie, and feeding the LLM’s yes/no answers into a logistic regression classifier. Despite its simplicity, this lie detector is highly accurate and surprisingly general. When trained on examples from a single setting—prompting GPT-3.5 to lie about factual questions—the detector generalises out-of-distribution to (1) other LLM architectures, (2) LLMs fine-tuned to lie, (3) sycophantic lies, and (4) lies emerging in real-life scenarios such as sales. These results indicate that LLMs have distinctive lie-related behavioural patterns, consistent across architectures and contexts, which could enable general-purpose lie detection.

Poster
Towards Identifiable Unsupervised Domain Translation: A Diversified Distribution Matching Approach

Sagar Shrestha, Xiao Fu

展开摘要

Unsupervised domain translation (UDT) aims to find functions that convert samples from one domain (e.g., sketches) to another domain (e.g., photos) without changing the high-level semantic meaning (also referred to as "content"). The translation functions are often sought by probability distribution matching of the transformed source domain and target domain. CycleGAN stands as arguably the most representative approach among this line of work. However, it was noticed in the literature that CycleGAN and variants could fail to identify the desired translation functions and produce content-misaligned translations. This limitation arises due to the presence of multiple translation functions---referred to as ``measure-preserving automorphism" (MPA)---in the solution space of the learning criteria. Despite awareness of such identifiability issues, solutions have remained elusive. This study delves into the core identifiability inquiry and introduces an MPA elimination theory. Our analysis shows that MPA is unlikely to exist, if multiple pairs of diverse cross-domain conditional distributions are matched by the learning function. Our theory leads to a UDT learner using distribution matching over auxiliary variable-induced subsets of the domains---other than over the entire data domains as in the classical approaches. The proposed framework is the first to rigorously establish translation identifiability under reasonable UDT settings, to our best knowledge. Experiments corroborate with our theoretical claims.

Poster
Be Aware of the Neighborhood Effect: Modeling Selection Bias under Interference

Haoxuan Li, Chunyuan Zheng, Sihao Ding, Peng Wu, Zhi Geng, Fuli Feng, Xiangnan He

展开摘要

Selection bias in recommender system arises from the recommendation process of system filtering and the interactive process of user selection. Many previous studies have focused on addressing selection bias to achieve unbiased learning of the prediction model, but ignore the fact that potential outcomes for a given user-item pair may vary with the treatments assigned to other user-item pairs, named neighborhood effect. To fill the gap, this paper formally formulates the neighborhood effect as an interference problem from the perspective of causal inference, and introduces a treatment representation to capture the neighborhood effect. On this basis, we propose a novel ideal loss that can be used to deal with selection bias in the presence of neighborhood effect. We further develop two new estimators for estimating the proposed ideal loss. We theoretically establish the connection between the proposed and previous debiasing methods ignoring the neighborhood effect, showing that the proposed methods can achieve unbiased learning when both selection bias and neighborhood effects are present, while the existing methods are biased. Extensive semi-synthetic and real-world experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Poster
Habitat 3.0: A Co-Habitat for Humans, Avatars, and Robots

Xavier Puig, Eric Undersander, Andrew Szot, Mikael Dallaire Cote, Tsung-Yen Yang, Ruslan Partsey, Ruta Desai, Alexander Clegg, Michal Hlavac, So Yeon Min, Vladimír Vondruš, Theophile Gervet, Vincent-Pierre Berges, John M Turner, Oleksandr Maksymets, Zsolt Kira, Mrinal Kalakrishnan, Jitendra Malik, Devendra Singh Chaplot, Unnat Jain, Dhruv Batra, Akshara Rai, Roozbeh Mottaghi

展开摘要

We present Habitat 3.0: a simulation platform for studying collaborative human-robot tasks in home environments. Habitat 3.0 offers contributions across three dimensions: (1) Accurate humanoid simulation: addressing challenges in modeling complex deformable bodies and diversity in appearance and motion, all while ensuring high simulation speed. (2) Human-in-the-loop infrastructure: enabling real human interaction with simulated robots via mouse/keyboard or a VR interface, facilitating evaluation of robot policies with human input. (3) Collaborative tasks: studying two collaborative tasks, Social Navigation and Social Rearrangement. Social Navigation investigates a robot's ability to locate and follow humanoid avatars in unseen environments, whereas Social Rearrangement addresses collaboration between a humanoid and robot while rearranging a scene. These contributions allow us to study end-to-end learned and heuristic baselines for human-robot collaboration in-depth, as well as evaluate them with humans in the loop. Our experiments demonstrate that learned robot policies lead to efficient task completion when collaborating with unseen humanoid agents and human partners that might exhibit behaviors that the robot has not seen before. Additionally, we observe emergent behaviors during collaborative task execution, such as the robot yielding space when obstructing a humanoid agent, thereby allowing the effective completion of the task by the humanoid agent. Furthermore, our experiments using the human-in-the-loop tool demonstrate that our automated evaluation with humanoids can provide an indication of the relative ordering of different policies when evaluated with real human collaborators. Habitat 3.0 unlocks interesting new features in simulators for Embodied AI, and we hope it paves the way for a new frontier of embodied human-AI interaction capabilities. For more details and visualizations, visit: https://aihabitat.org/habitat3.

Poster
Beyond Vanilla Variational Autoencoders: Detecting Posterior Collapse in Conditional and Hierarchical Variational Autoencoders

Hien Dang, Tho Tran Huu, Tan Minh Nguyen, Nhat Ho

展开摘要

The posterior collapse phenomenon in variational autoencoder (VAE), where the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior distribution, can hinder the quality of the learned latent variables. As a consequence of posterior collapse, the latent variables extracted by the encoder in VAE preserve less information from the input data and thus fail to produce meaningful representations as input to the reconstruction process in the decoder. While this phenomenon has been an actively addressed topic related to VAE performance, the theory for posterior collapse remains underdeveloped, especially beyond the standard VAE. In this work, we advance the theoretical understanding of posterior collapse to two important and prevalent yet less studied classes of VAE: conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE. Specifically, via a non-trivial theoretical analysis of linear conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE with two levels of latent, we prove that the cause of posterior collapses in these models includes the correlation between the input and output of the conditional VAE and the effect of learnable encoder variance in the hierarchical VAE. We empirically validate our theoretical findings for linear conditional and hierarchical VAE and demonstrate that these results are also predictive for non-linear cases with extensive experiments.

Poster
Space and time continuous physics simulation from partial observations

Steeven JANNY, Madiha Nadri, Julie Digne, Christian Wolf

展开摘要

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on computational fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed in classical settings and the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

Spotlight
PAC Prediction Sets Under Label Shift

Wenwen Si, Sangdon Park, Insup Lee, Edgar Dobriban, Osbert Bastani

展开摘要

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting, where the probabilities of labels can differ between the source and target distributions. Our algorithm relies on constructing confidence intervals for importance weights by propagating uncertainty through a Gaussian elimination algorithm. We evaluate our approach on four datasets: the CIFAR-10 and ChestX-Ray image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart Dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller prediction set sizes compared to several baselines.

Poster