AISTATS 2025 论文列表

We study model-based reinforcement learning with non-linear function approximation where the transition function of the underlying Markov decision process (MDP) is given by a multinomial logit (MNL) model. We develop a provably efficient discounted value iteration-based algorithm that works for both infinite-horizon average-reward and discounted-reward settings. For average-reward communicating MDPs, the algorithm guarantees a regret upper bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(dD\sqrt{T})$ where $d$ is the dimension of feature mapping, $D$ is the diameter of the underlying MDP, and $T$ is the horizon. For discounted-reward MDPs, our algorithm achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d(1-\gamma)^{-2}\sqrt{T})$ regret where $\gamma$ is the discount factor. Then we complement these upper bounds by providing several regret lower bounds. We prove a lower bound of $\Omega(d\sqrt{DT})$ for learning communicating MDPs of diameter $D$ and a lower bound of $\Omega(d(1-\gamma)^{-3/2}\sqrt{T})$ for learning discounted-reward MDPs with discount factor $\gamma$. Lastly, we show a regret lower bound of $\Omega(dH^{3/2}\sqrt{K})$ for learning $H$-horizon episodic MDPs with MNL function approximation where $K$ is the number of episodes, which improves upon the best-known lower bound for the finite-horizon setting.

Much of science involves discovering and modeling causal relationships in nature. Significant progress has been made in developing statistical methods for representing and identifying causal knowledge from data using Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Models (LiNGAMs). Despite successes in learning LiNGAMs across various sample settings, the optimal sample complexity for high-dimensional LiNGAMs remains unexplored. This study establishes the optimal sample complexity for learning the structure of LiNGAMs under a sub-Gaussianity assumption. Specifically, it introduces a structure recovery algorithm using distance covariance that achieves the optimal sample complexity, $n = \Theta(d_{in} \log \frac{p}{d_{in}})$, without assuming faithfulness or a known indegree. The theoretical findings and superiority of the proposed algorithm compared to existing algorithms are validated through numerical experiments and real data analysis.

The field of unpaired image-to-image translation has undergone a significant transformation with the introduction of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), with CycleGAN and DiscoGAN as prominent variants. While these models show impressive empirical performance, their statistical properties are under-studied. In this paper, we propose a framework for analyzing the generalization error in cross-domain deep generative models. Our findings reveal that when provided with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples from two domains, the translation error, measured under the Wasserstein-1 loss, scales as $\tilde{\mathcal{O}} \left(\min(n, m)^{-1/\max(d,\tilde{d})}\right)$, provided that the true model possesses sufficient smoothness and the network sizes are chosen appropriately. Here, $n$ and $m$ represent the sizes of the sample sets, while $d$ and $\tilde{d}$ denote the dimensions of the respective data domains. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of a cycle loss term for ensuring distributional cycle consistency. Additionally, we provide insights into the relationship between the network size and the number of data points. Notably, as the true model exhibits greater smoothness, it suffices to work with smaller networks.

In computational physics, machine learning has now emerged as a powerful complementary tool to explore efficiently candidate designs in engineering studies. Outputs in such supervised problems are signals defined on meshes, and a natural question is the extension of general scalar output regression models to such complex outputs. Changes between input geometries in terms of both size and adjacency structure in particular make this transition non-trivial. In this work, we propose an innovative strategy for Gaussian process regression where inputs are large and sparse graphs with continuous node attributes and outputs are signals defined on the nodes of the associated inputs. The methodology relies on the combination of regularized optimal transport, dimension reduction techniques, and the use of Gaussian processes indexed by graphs. In addition to enabling signal prediction, the main point of our proposal is to come with confidence intervals on node values, which is crucial for uncertainty quantification and active learning. Numerical experiments highlight the efficiency of the method to solve real problems in fluid dynamics and solid mechanics.

The widely used Plackett-Luce ranking model assumes that individuals rank items by making repeated choices from a universe of items. But in many cases the universe is too big for people to plausibly consider all options. In the choice literature, this issue has been addressed by supposing that individuals first sample a small consideration set and then choose among the considered items. However, inferring unobserved consideration sets (or item consideration probabilities) in this ``consider then choose'' setting poses significant challenges, because even simple models of consideration with strong independence assumptions are not identifiable, even if item utilities are known. We apply the consider-then-choose framework to top-$k$ rankings, where we assume rankings are constructed according to a Plackett-Luce model after sampling a consideration set. While item consideration probabilities remain non-identified in this setting, we prove that we can infer bounds on the relative values of consideration probabilities. Additionally, given a condition on the expected consideration set size and known item utilities, we derive absolute upper and lower bounds on item consideration probabilities. We also provide algorithms to tighten those bounds on consideration probabilities by propagating inferred constraints. Thus, we show that we can learn useful information about consideration probabilities despite not being able to identify them precisely. We demonstrate our methods on a ranking dataset from a psychology experiment with two different ranking tasks (one with fixed consideration sets and one with unknown consideration sets). This combination of data allows us to estimate utilities and then learn about unknown consideration probabilities using our bounds.

Time series data are crucial across diverse domains such as finance and healthcare, where accurate forecasting and decision-making rely on advanced modeling techniques. While generative models have shown great promise in capturing the intricate dynamics inherent in time series, evaluating their performance remains a major challenge. Traditional evaluation metrics fall short due to the temporal dependencies and potential high dimensionality of the features. In this paper, we propose the REcurrent NeurAL (RENAL) Goodness-of-Fit test, a novel and statistically rigorous framework for evaluating generative time series models. By leveraging recurrent neural networks, we transform the time series into conditionally independent data pairs, enabling the application of a chi-square-based goodness-of-fit test to the temporal dependencies within the data. This approach offers a robust, theoretically grounded solution for assessing the quality of generative models, particularly in settings with limited time sequences. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method across both synthetic and real-world datasets, outperforming existing methods in terms of reliability and accuracy. Our method fills a critical gap in the evaluation of time series generative models, offering a tool that is both practical and adaptable to high-stakes applications.

We propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear time-invariant responses, which are nonlinear only in initial conditions. This linearity allows us to tractably quantify forecasting and representational uncertainty, simultaneously alleviating the challenge of computing the distribution of trajectories from a GP-based dynamical system and enabling a new probabilistic treatment of learning Koopman operator representations. Using a trajectory-based equivariance – which we refer to as Koopman equivariance – we obtain a GP model with enhanced generalization capabilities. To allow for large-scale regression, we equip our framework with variational inference based on suitable inducing points. Experiments demonstrate on-par and often better forecasting performance compared to kernel-based methods for learning dynamical systems.

We propose a novel approach for optimizing the graph ratio-cut by modeling the binary assignments as random variables. We provide an upper bound on the expected ratio-cut, as well as an unbiased estimate of its gradient, to learn the parameters of the assignment variables in an online setting. The clustering resulting from our probabilistic approach (PRCut) outperforms the Rayleigh quotient relaxation of the combinatorial problem, its online learning extensions, and several widely used methods. We demonstrate that the PRCut clustering closely aligns with the similarity measure and can perform as well as a supervised classifier when label-based similarities are provided. This novel approach can leverage out-of-the-box self-supervised representations to achieve competitive performance and serve as an evaluation method for the quality of these representations.

We study a federated version of multi-objective optimization (MOO), where a single model is trained to optimize multiple objective functions. MOO has been extensively studied in the centralized setting but is less explored in federated or distributed settings. We propose FedCMOO, a novel communication-efficient federated multi-objective optimization (FMOO) algorithm that improves the error convergence performance of the model compared to existing approaches. Unlike prior works, the communication cost of FedCMOO does not scale with the number of objectives, as each client sends a single aggregated gradient, obtained using randomized SVD (singular value decomposition), to the central server. We provide a convergence analysis of the proposed method for smooth non-convex objective functions under milder assumptions than in prior work. In addition, we introduce a variant of FedCMOO that allows users to specify a preference over the objectives in terms of a desired ratio of the final objective values. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method over baseline approaches.

State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engi- neering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static pa- rameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because the likelihood func- tion is intractable. It is popular to use the sequential Monte Carlo(SMC) method to per- form gradient ascent optimisation in either offline or online fashion. One problem with existing online SMC methods for MLE is that the score estimators are inconsistent, i.e. the bias does not vanish with increasing particle size. In this paper, two SMC algorithms are proposed based on an importance sampling weight function to use each set of generated particles more efficiently. The first one is an offline algorithm that locally approximates the likelihood function using importance sam- pling, where the locality is adapted by the effective sample size (ESS). The second one is a semi-online algorithm that has a compu- tational cost linear in the particle size and uses score estimators that are consistent. We study its consistency and asymptotic normal- ity. Their computational superiority is illus- trated in numerical studies for long time se- ries.

Gaussian processes are notorious for scaling cubically with the size of the training set, preventing application to very large regression problems. Computation-aware Gaussian processes (CAGPs) tackle this scaling issue by exploiting probabilistic linear solvers to reduce complexity, widening the posterior with additional *computational* uncertainty due to reduced computation. However, the most commonly used CAGP framework results in (sometimes dramatically) conservative uncertainty quantification, making the posterior difficult to use in practice. In this work, we prove that if the utilised probabilistic linear solver is *calibrated*, in a rigorous statistical sense, then so too is the induced CAGP. We thus propose a new CAGP framework, CAGP-GS, based on using Gauss-Seidel iterations for the underlying probabilistic linear solver. CAGP-GS performs favourably compared to existing approaches when the test set is low-dimensional and few iterations are performed. We test the calibratedness on a synthetic problem, and compare the performance to existing approaches on a large-scale global temperature regression problem.

We present the Generative Flow Ant Colony Sampler (GFACS), a novel meta-heuristic method that hierarchically combines amortized inference and parallel stochastic search. Our method first leverages Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to amortize a multi-modal prior distribution over combinatorial solution space that encompasses both high-reward and diversified solutions. This prior is iteratively updated via parallel stochastic search in the spirit of Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), leading to the posterior distribution that generates near-optimal solutions. Extensive experiments across seven combinatorial optimization problems demonstrate GFACS's promising performances.

Predictions of uncertainty-aware models are diverse, ranging from single point estimates (often averaged over prediction samples) to predictive distributions, to set-valued or credal-set representations. We propose a novel unified evaluation framework for uncertainty-aware classifiers, applicable to a wide range of model classes, which allows users to tailor the trade-off between accuracy and precision of predictions via a suitably designed performance metric. This makes possible the selection of the most suitable model for a particular real-world application as a function of the desired trade-off. Our experiments, concerning Bayesian, ensemble, evidential, deterministic, credal and belief function classifiers on the CIFAR-10, MNIST and CIFAR-100 datasets, show that the metric behaves as desired.

Independent learning (IL) is a popular approach for achieving scalability in large-scale multi-agent systems, yet it typically lacks global convergence guarantees. In this paper, we study two representative algorithms—independent $Q$-learning and independent natural actor-critic—within both value-based and policy-based frameworks, and provide the first finite-sample analysis for approximate global convergence. Our results show that IL can achieve global convergence up to a fixed error arising from agent interdependence, which characterizes the fundamental limit of IL in achieving true global convergence. To establish these results, we develop a novel approach by constructing a separable Markov decision process (MDP) for convergence analysis and then bounding the gap caused by the model discrepancy between this separable MDP and the original one. Finally, we present numerical experiments using a synthetic MDP and an electric vehicle charging example to demonstrate our findings and the practical applicability of IL.

Training generative models to sample from unnormalized density functions is an important and challenging task in machine learning. Traditional training methods often rely on the reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence due to its tractability. However, the mode-seeking behavior of reverse KL hinders effective approximation of multi-modal target distributions. To address this, we propose to minimize the reverse KL along diffusion trajectories of both model and target densities. We refer to this objective as the reverse diffusive KL divergence, which allows the model to capture multiple modes. Leveraging this objective, we train neural samplers that can efficiently generate samples from the target distribution in one step. We demonstrate that our method enhances sampling performance across various Boltzmann distributions, including both synthetic multi-modal densities and n-body particle systems.

Accurate heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation is essential for personalized recommendations, making it important to evaluate and compare HTE estimators. Traditional assessment methods are inapplicable due to missing counterfactuals. Current HTE evaluation methods rely on additional estimation or matching on test data, often ignoring the uncertainty introduced and potentially leading to incorrect conclusions. We propose incorporating uncertainty quantification into HTE estimator comparisons. In addition, we suggest shifting the focus to the estimation and inference of the relative error between methods rather than their absolute errors. Methodology-wise, we develop a relative error estimator based on the efficient influence function and establish its asymptotic distribution for inference. Compared to absolute error-based methods, the relative error estimator (1) is less sensitive to the error of nuisance function estimators, satisfying a "global double robustness" property, and (2) its confidence intervals are often narrower, making it more powerful for determining the more accurate HTE estimator. Through extensive empirical study of the ACIC challenge benchmark datasets, we show that the relative error-based method more effectively identifies the better HTE estimator with statistical confidence, even with a moderately large test dataset or inaccurate nuisance estimators.

Making treatment effect estimation actionable for personalized decision-making requires overcoming the costs and delays of acquiring necessary features. While many machine learning models estimate Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE), they mostly assume that _all_ relevant features are readily available at prediction time – a scenario that is rarely realistic. In practice, acquiring features, such as medical tests, can be both expensive and time-consuming, highlighting the need for strategies that select the most informative features for each individual, enhancing decision accuracy while controlling costs. Existing active feature acquisition (AFA) methods, developed for supervised learning, fail to address the unique challenges of CATE, such as confounding, overlap, and the structural similarities of potential outcomes under different treatments. To tackle these challenges, we propose specialised feature acquisition metrics and estimation strategies tailored to the CATE setting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods through experiments on synthetic datasets designed to reflect common biases and data issues. In doing so, this work aims to bridge the gap between cutting-edge CATE estimation techniques and their practical, cost-efficient application in personalised treatment assignment.

Analyzing the structure of sampled features from an input data distribution is challenging when constrained by limited measurements in both the number of inputs and features. Traditional approaches often rely on the eigenvalue spectrum of the sample covariance matrix derived from finite measurement matrices; however, these spectra are sensitive to the size of the measurement matrix, leading to biased insights. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm that provides unbiased estimates of the spectral moments of the kernel integral operator in the limit of infinite inputs and features from finitely sampled measurement matrices. Our method, based on dynamic programming, is efficient and capable of estimating the moments of the operator spectrum. We demonstrate the accuracy of our estimator on radial basis function (RBF) kernels, highlighting its consistency with the theoretical spectra. Furthermore, we showcase the practical utility and robustness of our method in understanding the geometry of learned representations in neural networks.

In this paper, we introduce Partial Information Decomposition of Features (PIDF), a new paradigm for simultaneous data interpretability and feature selection. Contrary to traditional methods that assign a single importance value, our approach is based on three metrics per feature: the mutual information shared with the target variable, the feature’s contribution to synergistic information, and the amount of this information that is redundant. In particular, we develop a novel procedure based on these three metrics, which reveals not only how features are correlated with the target but also the additional and overlapping information provided by considering them in combination with other features. We extensively evaluate PIDF using both synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating its potential applications and effectiveness, by considering case studies from genetics and neuroscience.