AISTATS 2022 论文列表

In this paper, we study stochastic optimization of areas under precision-recall curves (AUPRC), which is widely used for combating imbalanced classification tasks. Although a few methods have been proposed for maximizing AUPRC, stochastic optimization of AUPRC with convergence guarantee remains an undeveloped territory. A state-of-the-art complexity is $O(1/\epsilon^5)$ for finding an $\epsilon$-stationary solution. In this paper, we further improve the stochastic optimization of AURPC by (i) developing novel stochastic momentum methods with a better iteration complexity of $O(1/\epsilon^4)$ for finding an $\epsilon$-stationary solution; and (ii) designing a novel family of stochastic adaptive methods with the same iteration complexity, which enjoy faster convergence in practice. To this end, we propose two innovative techniques that are critical for improving the convergence: (i) the biased estimators for tracking individual ranking scores are updated in a randomized coordinate-wise manner; and (ii) a momentum update is used on top of the stochastic gradient estimator for tracking the gradient of the objective. The novel analysis of Adam-style updates is also one main contribution. Extensive experiments on various data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. Of independent interest, the proposed stochastic momentum and adaptive algorithms are also applicable to a class of two-level stochastic dependent compositional optimization problems.

In the contrastive analysis (CA) setting, machine learning practitioners are specifically interested in discovering patterns that are enriched in a target dataset as compared to a background dataset generated from sources of variation irrelevant to the task at hand. For example, a biomedical data analyst may seek to understand variations in genomic data only present among patients with a given disease as opposed to those also present in healthy control subjects. Such scenarios have motivated the development of contrastive latent variable models to isolate variations unique to these target datasets from those shared across the target and background datasets, with current state of the art models based on the variational autoencoder (VAE) framework. However, previously proposed models do not explicitly enforce the constraints on latent variables underlying CA, potentially leading to the undesirable leakage of information between the two sets of latent variables. Here we propose the moment matching contrastive VAE (MM-cVAE), a reformulation of the VAE for CA that uses the maximum mean discrepancy to explicitly enforce two crucial latent variable constraints underlying CA. On three challenging CA tasks we find that our method outperforms the previous state-of-the-art both qualitatively and on a set of quantitative metrics.

The Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM; Tobar et al., 2015a) is a model for signals with complex spectral structure. A significant limitation of the GPCM is that it assumes a rapidly decaying spectrum: it can only model smooth signals. Moreover, inference in the GPCM currently requires (1) a mean-field assumption, resulting in poorly calibrated uncertainties, and (2) a tedious variational optimisation of large covariance matrices. We redesign the GPCM model to induce a richer distribution over the spectrum with relaxed assumptions about smoothness: the Causal Gaussian Process Convolution Model (CGPCM) introduces a causality assumption into the GPCM, and the Rough Gaussian Process Convolution Model (RGPCM) can be interpreted as a Bayesian nonparametric generalisation of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also propose a more effective variational inference scheme, going beyond the mean-field assumption: we design a Gibbs sampler which directly samples from the optimal variational solution, circumventing any variational optimisation entirely. The proposed variations of the GPCM are validated in experiments on synthetic and real-world data, showing promising results.

We study modeling joint densities over sets of random variables (next-step movements of multiple agents) which are conditioned on aligned observations (past trajectories). For this setting, we propose an autoregressive approach to model intra-timestep dependencies, where distributions over joint movements are represented by autoregressive factorizations. In our approach, factors are randomly ordered and estimated with a graph neural network to account for permutation equivariance, while a recurrent neural network encodes past trajectories. We further propose a conditional two-stream attention mechanism, to allow for efficient training of random factorizations. We experiment on trajectory data from professional soccer matches and find that we model low frequency trajectories better than variational approaches.

Despite the increasing popularity of policy gradient methods, they are yet to be widely utilized in sample-scarce applications, such as robotics. The sample efficiency could be improved by making best usage of available information. As a key component in reinforcement learning, the reward function is usually devised carefully to guide the agent. Hence, the reward function is usually known, allowing access to not only scalar reward signals but also reward gradients. To benefit from reward gradients, previous works require the knowledge of environment dynamics, which are hard to obtain. In this work, we develop the Reward Policy Gradient estimator, a novel approach that integrates reward gradients without learning a model. Bypassing the model dynamics allows our estimator to achieve a better bias-variance trade-off, which results in a higher sample efficiency, as shown in the empirical analysis. Our method also boosts the performance of Proximal Policy Optimization on different MuJoCo control tasks.

We present simple methods for out-of-distribution detection using a trained generative model. These techniques, based on classical statistical tests, are model-agnostic in the sense that they can be applied to any differentiable generative model. The idea is to combine a classical parametric test (Rao’s score test) with the recently introduced typicality test. These two test statistics are both theoretically well-founded and exploit different sources of information based on the likelihood for the typicality test and its gradient for the score test. We show that combining them using Fisher’s method overall leads to a more accurate out-of-distribution test. We also discuss the benefits of casting out-of-distribution detection as a statistical testing problem, noting in particular that false positive rate control can be valuable for practical out-of-distribution detection. Despite their simplicity and generality, these methods can be competitive with model-specific out-of-distribution detection algorithms without any assumptions on the out-distribution.

Data on matrix manifolds are ubiquitous on a wide range of research fields. The key issue is estimation of the modes (i.e., maxima) of the probability density function underlying the data. For instance, local modes (i.e., local maxima) can be used for clustering, while the global mode (i.e., the global maximum) is a robust alternative to the Frechet mean. Previously, to estimate the modes, an iterative method has been proposed based on a Riemannian gradient estimator and empirically showed the superior performance in clustering (Ashizawa et al., 2017). However, it has not been theoretically investigated if the iterative method is able to capture the modes based on the gradient estimator. In this paper, we propose simple iterative methods for mode estimation on matrix manifolds based on the Euclidean metric. A key contribution is to perform theoretical analysis and establish sufficient conditions for the monotonic ascending and convergence of the proposed iterative methods. In addition, for the previous method, we prove the monotonic ascending property towards a mode. Thus, our work can be also regarded as compensating for the lack of theoretical analysis in the previous method. Furthermore, the robustness of the iterative methods is theoretically investigated in terms of the breakdown point. Finally, the proposed methods are experimentally demonstrated to work well in clustering and robust mode estimation on matrix manifolds.

For an AI system to be reliable, the confidence it expresses in its decisions must match its accuracy. To assess the degree of match, examples are typically binned by confidence and the per-bin mean confidence and accuracy are compared. Most research in calibration focuses on techniques to reduce this empirical measure of calibration error, ECE_bin. We instead focus on assessing statistical bias in this empirical measure, and we identify better estimators. We propose a framework through which we can compute the bias of a particular estimator for an evaluation data set of a given size. The framework involves synthesizing model outputs that have the same statistics as common neural architectures on popular data sets. We find that binning-based estimators with bins of equal mass (number of instances) have lower bias than estimators with bins of equal width. Our results indicate two reliable calibration-error estimators: the debiased estimator (Brocker, 2012; Ferro and Fricker, 2012) and a method we propose, ECE_sweep, which uses equal-mass bins and chooses the number of bins to be as large as possible while preserving monotonicity in the calibration function. With these estimators, we observe improvements in the effectiveness of recalibration methods and in the detection of model miscalibration.

Minimax optimization has been central in addressing various applications in machine learning, game theory, and control theory. Prior literature has thus far mainly focused on studying such problems in the continuous domain, e.g., convex-concave minimax optimization is now understood to a significant extent. Nevertheless, minimax problems extend far beyond the continuous domain to mixed continuous-discrete domains or even fully discrete domains. In this paper, we study mixed continuous-discrete minimax problems where the minimization is over a continuous variable belonging to Euclidean space and the maximization is over subsets of a given ground set. We introduce the class of convex-submodular minimax problems, where the objective is convex with respect to the continuous variable and submodular with respect to the discrete variable. Even though such problems appear frequently in machine learning applications, little is known about how to address them from algorithmic and theoretical perspectives. For such problems, we first show that obtaining saddle points are hard up to any approximation, and thus introduce new notions of (near-) optimality. We then provide several algorithmic procedures for solving convex and monotone-submodular minimax problems and characterize their convergence rates, computational complexity, and quality of the final solution according to our notions of optimally. Our proposed algorithms are iterative and combine tools from both discrete and continuous optimization. Finally, we provide numerical experiments to showcase the effectiveness of our purposed methods.

Robins et al. (2008) introduced a class of influence functions (IFs) which could be used to obtain doubly robust moment functions for the corresponding parameters. However, that class does not include the IF of parameters for which the nuisance functions are solutions to integral equations. Such parameters are particularly important in the field of causal inference, specifically in the recently proposed proximal causal inference framework of Tchetgen Tchetgen et al. (2020), which allows for estimating the causal effect in the presence of latent confounders. In this paper, we first extend the class of Robins et al. to include doubly robust IFs in which the nuisance functions are solutions to integral equations. Then we demonstrate that the double robustness property of these IFs can be leveraged to construct estimating equations for the nuisance functions, which enables us to solve the integral equations without resorting to parametric models. We frame the estimation of the nuisance functions as a minimax optimization problem. We provide convergence rates for the nuisance functions and conditions required for asymptotic linearity of the estimator of the parameter of interest. The experiment results demonstrate that our proposed methodology leads to robust and high-performance estimators for average causal effect in the proximal causal inference framework.

We consider the problem of online learning in Linear Quadratic Control systems whose state transition and state-action transition matrices $A$ and $B$ may be initially unknown. We devise an online learning algorithm and provide guarantees on its expected regret. This regret at time $T$ is upper bounded (i) by $\widetilde{O}((d_u+d_x)\sqrt{d_xT})$ when $A$ and $B$ are unknown, (ii) by $\widetilde{O}(d_x^2\log(T))$ if only $A$ is unknown, and (iii) by $\widetilde{O}(d_x(d_u+d_x)\log(T))$ if only $B$ is unknown and under some mild non-degeneracy condition ($d_x$ and $d_u$ denote the dimensions of the state and of the control input, respectively). These regret scalings are minimal in $T$, $d_x$ and $d_u$ as they match existing lower bounds in scenario (i) when $d_x\le d_u$ [SF20], and in scenario (ii) [Lai86]. We conjecture that our upper bounds are also optimal in scenario (iii) (there is no known lower bound in this setting). Existing online algorithms proceed in epochs of (typically exponentially) growing durations. The control policy is fixed within each epoch, which considerably simplifies the analysis of the estimation error on $A$ and $B$ and hence of the regret. Our algorithm departs from this design choice: it is a simple variant of certainty-equivalence regulators, where the estimates of $A$ and $B$ and the resulting control policy can be updated as frequently as we wish, possibly at every step. Quantifying the impact of such a constantly-varying control policy on the performance of these estimates and on the regret constitutes one of the technical challenges tackled in this paper.

Fully Bayesian approaches to sequential decision-making assume that problem parameters are generated from a known prior. In practice, such information is often lacking. This problem is exacerbated in setups with partial information, where a misspecified prior may lead to poor exploration and performance. In this work we prove, in the context of stochastic linear bandits and Gaussian priors, that as long as the prior is sufficiently close to the true prior, the performance of the applied algorithm is close to that of the algorithm that uses the true prior. Furthermore, we address the task of learning the prior through metalearning, where a learner updates her estimate of the prior across multiple task instances in order to improve performance on future tasks. We provide an algorithm and regret bounds, demonstrate its effectiveness in comparison to an algorithm that knows the correct prior, and support our theoretical results empirically. Our theoretical results hold for a broad class of algorithms, including Thompson Sampling and Information Directed Sampling.

We study meta-learning in Markov Decision Processes (MDP) with linear transition models in the undiscounted episodic setting. Under a task sharedness metric based on model proximity we study task families characterized by a distribution over models specified by a bias term and a variance component. We then propose BUC-MatrixRL, a version of the UC-Matrix RL algorithm and show it can meaningfully leverage a set of sampled training tasks to quickly solve a test task sampled from the same task distribution by learning an estimator of the bias parameter of the task distribution. The analysis leverages and extends results in the learning to learn linear regression and linear bandit setting to the more general case of MDP’s with linear transition models. We prove that compared to learning the tasks in isolation, BUC-Matrix RL provides significant improvements in the transfer regret for high bias low variance task distributions.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are used to make medical and scientific decisions, including in cardiac care and monitoring of carbon dioxide emissions. Notably, the choice of GP kernel is often somewhat arbitrary. In particular, uncountably many kernels typically align with qualitative prior knowledge (e.g. function smoothness or stationarity). But in practice, data analysts choose among a handful of convenient standard kernels (e.g. squared exponential). In the present work, we ask: Would decisions made with a GP differ under other, qualitatively interchangeable kernels? We show how to formulate this sensitivity analysis as a constrained optimization problem over a finite-dimensional space. We can then use standard optimizers to identify substantive changes in relevant decisions made with a GP. We demonstrate in both synthetic and real-world examples that decisions made with a GP can exhibit substantial sensitivity to kernel choice, even when prior draws are qualitatively interchangeable to a user.

Compressive learning is an approach to efficient large scale learning based on sketching an entire dataset to a single mean embedding (the sketch), i.e. a vector of generalized moments. The learning task is then approximately solved as an inverse problem using an adapted parametric model. Previous works in this context have focused on sketches obtained by averaging random features, that while universal can be poorly adapted to the problem at hand. In this paper, we propose and study the idea of performing sketching based on data-dependent Nyström approximation. From a theoretical perspective we prove that the excess risk can be controlled under a geometric assumption relating the parametric model used to learn from the sketch and the covariance operator associated to the task at hand. Empirically, we show for k-means clustering and Gaussian modeling that for a fixed sketch size, Nyström sketches indeed outperform those built with random features.

State-of-the-art training algorithms for deep learning models are based on stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Recently, many variations have been explored: perturbing parameters for better accuracy (such as in Extragradient), limiting SGD updates to a subset of parameters for increased efficiency (such as meProp) or a combination of both (such as Dropout). However, the convergence of these methods is often not studied in theory. We propose a unified theoretical framework to study such SGD variants—encompassing the aforementioned algorithms and additionally a broad variety of methods used for communication efficient training or model compression. Our insights can be used as a guide to improve the efficiency of such methods and facilitate generalization to new applications. As an example, we tackle the task of jointly training networks, a version of which (limited to sub-networks) is used to create Slimmable Networks. By training a low-rank Transformer jointly with a standard one we obtain superior performance than when it is trained separately.

In this work, we propose marginalized operators, a new class of off-policy evaluation operators for reinforcement learning. Marginalized operators strictly generalize generic multi-step operators, such as Retrace, as special cases. Marginalized operators also suggest a form of sample-based estimates with potential variance reduction, compared to sample-based estimates of the original multi-step operators. We show that the estimates for marginalized operators can be computed in a scalable way, which also generalizes prior results on marginalized importance sampling as special cases. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that marginalized operators provide performance gains to off-policy evaluation problems and downstream policy optimization algorithms.

Marginalising over families of Gaussian Process kernels produces flexible model classes with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Existing approaches require likelihood evaluations of many kernels, rendering them prohibitively expensive for larger datasets. We propose a Bayesian Quadrature scheme to make this marginalisation more efficient and thereby more practical. Through use of maximum mean discrepancies between distributions, we define a kernel over kernels that captures invariances between Spectral Mixture (SM) Kernels. Kernel samples are selected by generalising an information-theoretic acquisition function for warped Bayesian Quadrature. We show that our framework achieves more accurate predictions with better calibrated uncertainty than state-of-the-art baselines, especially when given limited (wall-clock) time budgets.

The growing use of machine learning models in consequential settings has highlighted an important and seemingly irreconcilable tension between transparency and vulnerability to gaming. While this has sparked sizable debate in legal literature, there has been comparatively less technical study of this contention. In this work, we propose a clean-cut formulation of this tension and a way to make the tradeoff between transparency and gaming. We identify the source of gaming as being points close to the decision boundary of the model. And we initiate an investigation on how to provide example-based explanations that are expansive and yet consistent with a version space that is sufficiently uncertain with respect to the boundary points’ labels. Finally, we furnish our theoretical results with empirical investigations of this tradeoff on real-world datasets.