NeurIPS 2025 Papers

For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction *sets* guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude. For RCP, a well-established approach is to use randomized smoothing since it is applicable to any black-box model and provides smaller sets compared to deterministic methods. However, smoothing-based robustness requires many model forward passes per each input which is computationally expensive. We show that conformal prediction attains some robustness even with *a single forward pass on a randomly perturbed input*. Using any binary certificate we propose a single sample robust CP (RCP1). Our approach returns robust sets with smaller average set size compared to SOTA methods which use many (e.g. $\sim 100$) passes per input. Our key insight is to certify the conformal procedure itself rather than individual conformity scores. Our approach is agnostic to the task (classification and regression). We further extend our approach to smoothing-based robust conformal risk control.

The multi-view Gaussian process latent variable model (MV-GPLVM) aims to learn a unified representation from multi-view data but is hindered by challenges such as limited kernel expressiveness and low computational efficiency. To overcome these issues, we first introduce a new duality between the spectral density and the kernel function. By modeling the spectral density with a bivariate Gaussian mixture, we then derive a generic and expressive kernel termed Next-Gen Spectral Mixture (NG-SM) for MV-GPLVMs. To address the inherent computational inefficiency of the NG-SM kernel, we propose a random Fourier feature approximation. Combined with a tailored reparameterization trick, this approximation enables scalable variational inference for both the model and the unified latent representations. Numerical evaluations across a diverse range of multi-view datasets demonstrate that our proposed method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models in learning meaningful latent representations.

We consider inferring the causal effect of a treatment (intervention) on an outcome of interest in situations where there is potentially an unobserved confounder influencing both the treatment and the outcome. This is achievable by assuming access to two separate sets of control (proxy) measurements associated with treatment and outcomes, which are used to estimate treatment effects through a function termed the *causal bridge* (CB). We present a new theoretical perspective, associated assumptions for when estimating treatment effects with the CB is feasible, and a bound on the average error of the treatment effect when the CB assumptions are violated. From this new perspective, we then demonstrate how coupling the CB with an autoencoder architecture allows for the sharing of statistical strength between observed quantities (proxies, treatment, and outcomes), thus improving the quality of the CB estimates. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach relative to state-of-the-art methodology for causal inference with proxy measurements.

We propose a method for density estimation that leverages an estimated score function to debias kernel density estimation (SD-KDE). In our approach, each data point is adjusted by taking a single step along the score function with a specific choice of step size, followed by standard KDE with a modified bandwidth. The step size and modified bandwidth are chosen to remove the leading order bias in the KDE, improving the asymptotic convergence rate. Our experiments on synthetic tasks in 1D, 2D and on MNIST, demonstrate that our proposed SD-KDE method significantly reduces the mean integrated squared error compared to the standard Silverman KDE, even with noisy estimates in the score function. These results underscore the potential of integrating score-based corrections into nonparametric density estimation.

We study the mediation analysis under the distributed framework, where data are stored and processed across different worker machines due to storage limitations or privacy concerns. Building upon the classic Sobel's test and MaxP test, we introduce the distributed Sobel's test and distributed MaxP test, respectively. These tests are both communication-efficient and easy to implement. Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments show that, compared to the global test obtained by pooling all data together, the proposed tests achieve nearly identical power, independent of the number of machines. Furthermore, based on these two distributed test statistics, many enhanced mediation tests derived from the Sobel's or MaxP tests can be easily adapted to the distributed system. We apply our method to an educational study, testing whether the effect of high school mathematics on college-level Probability and Mathematical Statistics courses is mediated by Calculus. Our method successfully detects the mediation effect, which would not be identifiable using data from only the first or second class, highlighting the advantage of our approach.

We introduce scalable algorithms for online learning of neural network parameters and Bayesian sequential decision making. Unlike classical Bayesian neural networks, which induce predictive uncertainty through a posterior over model parameters, our methods adopt a predictive-first perspective based on martingale posteriors. In particular, we work directly with the one-step-ahead posterior predictive, which we parameterize with a neural network and update sequentially with incoming observations. This decouples Bayesian decision-making from parameter-space inference: we sample from the posterior predictive for decision making, and update the parameters of the posterior predictive via fast, frequentist Kalman-filter-like recursions. Our algorithms operate in a fully online, replay-free setting, providing principled uncertainty quantification without costly posterior sampling. Empirically, they achieve competitive performance–speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization, offering 10–100 times faster inference than classical Thompson sampling while maintaining comparable or superior decision performance.

Causal representation learning in the anti-causal setting—labels cause features rather than the reverse—presents unique challenges requiring specialized approaches. We propose Anti-Causal Invariant Abstractions (ACIA), a novel measure-theoretic framework for anti-causal representation learning. ACIA employs a two-level design: low-level representations capture how labels generate observations, while high-level representations learn stable causal patterns across environment-specific variations. ACIA addresses key limitations of existing approaches by: (1) accommodating prefect and imperfect interventions through interventional kernels, (2) eliminating dependency on explicit causal structures, (3) handling high-dimensional data effectively, and (4) providing theoretical guarantees for out-of-distribution generalization. Experiments on synthetic and real-world medical datasets demonstrate that ACIA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both accuracy and invariance metrics. Furthermore, our theoretical results establish tight bounds on performance gaps between training and unseen environments, confirming the efficacy of our approach for robust anti-causal learning. {{Code is available at \url{https://github.com/ArmanBehnam/ACIA}}}.

Bayesian Network models are a powerful tool to collaboratively optimize production processes in various manufacturing industries. When interacting, collaborating parties must preserve their business secrets by maintaining the confidentiality of their model structures and parameters. While most realistic industry scenarios involve hybrid settings, handling both discrete and continuous data, current state-of-the-art methods for collaborative and confidential inference only support discrete data and have high communication costs. In a centralized setting, Junction Trees enable efficient inference even in hybrid scenarios without discretizing continuous variables, but no extension for collaborative and confidential scenarios exists. To address this research gap, we introduce Hybrid CCJT, the first framework for confidential multiparty inference in hybrid domains with semi-honest, non-colluding adversaries, comprising: (i) a method to construct a strongly-rooted Junction Tree across collaborating parties through a novel construct of interface cliques; and, (ii) a protocol for confidential inference built upon multiparty computation primitives comprising a one-time alignment phase and a belief propagation system for combining the inference results across the Junction Tree cliques. Extensive evaluation on nine datasets shows that Hybrid CCJT improves the predictive accuracy of continuous target variables by 32% on average compared to the state-of-the-art, while reducing communication costs by a median 10.4x under purely discrete scenarios.

Sampling from constrained statistical distributions is a fundamental task in various fields including Bayesian statistics, computational chemistry, and statistical physics. This article considers the cases where the constrained distribution is described by an unconstrained density, as well as additional equality and/or inequality constraints, which often make the constraint set nonconvex. Existing methods for nonconvex constraint set $\Sigma \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ defined by equality or inequality constraints commonly rely on costly projection steps. Moreover, they cannot handle equality and inequality constraints simultaneously as each method only specialized in one case. In addition, rigorous and quantitative convergence guarantee is often lacking. In this paper, we introduce Overdamped Langevin with LAnding (OLLA), a new framework that can design overdamped Langevin dynamics accommodating both equality and inequality constraints. The proposed dynamics also deterministically corrects trajectories along the normal direction of the constraint surface, thus obviating the need for explicit projections. We show that, under suitable regularity conditions on the target density and $\Sigma$, OLLA converges exponentially fast in $W_2$ distance to the constrained target density $\rho_\Sigma(x) \propto \exp(-f(x))d\sigma_\Sigma$. Lastly, through experiments, we demonstrate the efficiency of OLLA compared to projection-based constrained Langevin algorithms and their slack variable variants, highlighting its favorable computational cost and reasonable empirical mixing.

Active statistical inference is a new method for inference with AI-assisted data collection. Given a budget on the number of labeled data points that can be collected and assuming access to an AI predictive model, the basic idea is to improve estimation accuracy by prioritizing the collection of labels where the model is most uncertain. The drawback, however, is that inaccurate uncertainty estimates can make active sampling produce highly noisy results, potentially worse than those from naive uniform sampling. In this work, we present robust sampling strategies for active statistical inference. Robust sampling ensures that the resulting estimator is never worse than the estimator using uniform sampling. Furthermore, with reliable uncertainty estimates, the estimator usually outperforms standard active inference. This is achieved by optimally interpolating between uniform and active sampling, depending on the quality of the uncertainty scores, and by using ideas from robust optimization. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a series of real datasets from computational social science and survey research.

In settings where ML models are used to inform the allocation of resources, agents affected by the allocation decisions might have an incentive to strategically change their features to secure better outcomes. While prior work has studied strategic responses broadly, disentangling misreporting from genuine adaptation remains a fundamental challenge. In this paper, we propose a causally-motivated approach to identify and quantify how much an agent misreports on average by distinguishing deceptive changes in their features from genuine adaptation. Our key insight is that, unlike genuine adaptation, misreported features do not causally affect downstream variables (i.e., causal descendants). We exploit this asymmetry by comparing the causal effect of misreported features on their causal descendants as derived from manipulated datasets against those from unmanipulated datasets. We formally prove identifiability of the misreporting rate and characterize the variance of our estimator. We empirically validate our theoretical results using a semi-synthetic and real Medicare dataset with misreported data, demonstrating that our approach can be employed to identify misreporting in real-world scenarios.

Generalization methods offer a powerful solution to one of the key drawbacks of randomized controlled trials (RCTs): their limited representativeness. By enabling the transport of treatment effect estimates to target populations subject to distributional shifts, these methods are increasingly recognized as the future of meta-analysis, the current gold standard in evidence-based medicine. Yet most existing approaches focus on the risk difference, overlooking the diverse range of causal measures routinely reported in clinical research. Reporting multiple effect measures—both absolute (e.g., risk difference, number needed to treat) and relative (e.g., risk ratio, odds ratio)—is essential to ensure clinical relevance, policy utility, and interpretability across contexts. To address this gap, we propose a unified framework for transporting a broad class of first-moment population causal effect measures under covariate shift. We provide identification results under two conditional exchangeability assumptions, derive both classical and semiparametric estimators, and evaluate their performance through theoretical analysis, simulations, and real-world applications. Our analysis shows the specificity of different causal measures and thus the interest of studying them all: for instance, two common approaches (one-step, estimating equation) lead to similar estimators for the risk difference but to two distinct estimators for the odds ratio.

Network interference has attracted significant attention in the field of causal inference, encapsulating various sociological behaviors in which the treatment assigned to one individual within a network may affect the outcomes of others, such as their neighbors. A key challenge in this setting is that standard causal inference methods often assume independent treatment effects among individuals, which may not hold in networked environments. To estimate interference-aware causal effects, a traditional approach is to inherit the independent settings, where practitioners randomly assign experimental participants to different groups and compare their outcomes. Although effective in offline settings, this strategy becomes problematic in sequential experiments, where suboptimal decisions persist, leading to substantial regret. To address this issue, we introduce a unified interference-aware framework for online experimental design. Compared to existing studies, we extend the definition of arm space using the statistical concept of exposure mapping, which allows for a more flexible and context-aware representation of treatment effects in network settings. Crucially, we establish a Pareto-optimal trade-off between estimation accuracy and regret under the network concerning both time period and arm space, which remains superior to baseline models even without network interference. Furthermore, we propose an algorithmic implementation and discuss its generalization in different learning settings and network topology.

Causal reasoning and discovery, two fundamental tasks of causal analysis, often face challenges in applications due to the complexity, noisiness, and high-dimensionality of real-world data. Despite recent progress in identifying latent causal structures using causal representation learning (CRL), what makes learned representations useful for causal downstream tasks and how to evaluate them are still not well understood. In this paper, we reinterpret CRL using a measurement model framework, where the learned representations are viewed as proxy measurements of the latent causal variables. Our approach clarifies the conditions under which learned representations support downstream causal reasoning and provides a principled basis for quantitatively assessing the quality of representations using a new Test-based Measurement EXclusivity (T-MEX) score. We validate T-MEX across diverse causal inference scenarios, including numerical simulations and real-world ecological video analysis, demonstrating that the proposed framework and corresponding score effectively assess the identification of learned representations and their usefulness for causal downstream tasks.

Recent advances in false discovery rate (FDR)-controlled feature selection methods have improved reliability by effectively limiting false positives, making them well-suited for complex applications. A popular FDR-controlled framework called data splitting uses the "mirror statistics" to select features. However, we find that the unit variance assumption on mirror statistics could potentially limit the feature selection power. To address this, we generalize the mirror statistics in the Gaussian mirror framework and introduce a new approach called "generalized Gaussian mirror" ($\text{G}^2\text{M}$), which adaptively learns the variance and forms new test statistics. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that the proposed test statistics achieve higher power than those of Gaussian mirror and data splitting. Comparisons with other FDR-controlled frameworks on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real datasets highlight the superior performance of the $\text{G}^2\text{M}$ method in achieving higher power while maintaining FDR control. These findings suggest the potential for the $\text{G}^2\text{M}$ method for practical applications in real-world problems. Code is available in https://github.com/skyve2012/G2M.

The increasing use of generative ML foundation models for image restoration tasks such as super-resolution calls for robust and interpretable uncertainty quantification methods. We address this need by presenting a novel approach based on conformal prediction techniques to create a `confidence mask' capable of reliably and intuitively communicating where the generated image can be trusted. Our method is adaptable to any black-box generative model, including those locked behind an opaque API, requires only easily attainable data for calibration, and is highly customizable via the choice of a local image similarity metric. We prove strong theoretical guarantees for our method that span fidelity error control (according to our local image similarity metric), reconstruction quality, and robustness in the face of data leakage. Finally, we empirically evaluate these results and establish our method's solid performance.

We introduce *NeuralSurv*, the first deep survival model to incorporate Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our non‑parametric, architecture‑agnostic framework flexibly captures time‑varying covariate–risk relationships in continuous time via a novel two‑stage data‑augmentation scheme, for which we establish theoretical guarantees. For efficient posterior inference, we introduce a mean‑field variational algorithm with coordinate‑ascent updates that scale linearly in model size. By locally linearizing the Bayesian neural network, we obtain full conjugacy and derive all coordinate updates in closed form. In experiments, *NeuralSurv* delivers superior calibration compared to state-of-the-art deep survival models, while matching or exceeding their discriminative performance across both synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets. Our results demonstrate the value of Bayesian principles in data‑scarce regimes by enhancing model calibration and providing robust, well‑calibrated uncertainty estimates for the survival function.

Many critical applications, from autonomous scientific discovery to personalized medicine, demand systems that can both strategically acquire the most informative data and instantaneously perform inference based upon it. While amortized methods for Bayesian inference and experimental design offer part of the solution, neither approach is optimal in the most general and challenging task, where new data needs to be collected for instant inference. To tackle this issue, we introduce the Amortized Active Learning and Inference Engine (ALINE), a unified framework for amortized Bayesian inference and active data acquisition. ALINE leverages a transformer architecture trained via reinforcement learning with a reward based on self-estimated information gain provided by its own integrated inference component. This allows it to strategically query informative data points while simultaneously refining its predictions. Moreover, ALINE can selectively direct its querying strategy towards specific subsets of model parameters or designated predictive tasks, optimizing for posterior estimation, data prediction, or a mixture thereof. Empirical results on regression-based active learning, classical Bayesian experimental design benchmarks, and a psychometric model with selectively targeted parameters demonstrate that ALINE delivers both instant and accurate inference along with efficient selection of informative points.

Recently, there has been significant progress in learning-based diffusion samplers, which aim to sample from a given unnormalized density. Many of these approaches formulate the sampling task as a stochastic optimal control (SOC) problem using a canonical uninformative reference process, which limits their ability to efficiently guide trajectories toward the target distribution. In this work, we propose the **Non-Equilibrium Annealed Adjoint Sampler (NAAS)**, a novel SOC-based diffusion framework that employs annealed reference dynamics as a non-stationary base SDE. This annealing structure provides a natural progression toward the target distribution and generates informative reference trajectories, thereby enhancing the stability and efficiency of learning the control. Owing to our SOC formulation, our framework can incorporate a variety of SOC solvers, thereby offering high flexibility in algorithmic design. As one instantiation, we employ a lean adjoint system inspired by adjoint matching, enabling efficient and scalable training. We demonstrate the effectiveness of NAAS across a range of tasks, including sampling from classical energy landscapes and molecular Boltzmann distributions.