NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agents excel in solving complex decision-making tasks across various domains. However, they often require a substantial number of training steps and a vast experience replay buffer, leading to significant computational and resource demands. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel theoretical result that leverages the Neyman-Rubin potential outcomes framework into DRL. Unlike most methods that focus on bounding the counterfactual loss, we establish a causal bound on the factual loss, which is analogous to the on-policy loss in DRL. This bound is computed by storing past value network outputs in the experience replay buffer, effectively utilizing data that is usually discarded. Extensive experiments across the Atari 2600 and MuJoCo domains on various agents, such as DQN and SAC, achieve *up to 383%* higher reward ratio, outperforming the same agents without our proposed term, and reducing the experience replay buffer size by *up to 96%*, significantly improving *sample efficiency at a negligible cost*.

Many causal inference frameworks rely on a staticity assumption, where repeated interventions are expected to yield consistent outcomes, often summarized by metrics like the Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This assumption, however, frequently fails in dynamic environments where interventions can alter the system's underlying causal structure, rendering traditional `static' ATE insufficient or misleading. Recent works on meta-causal models (MCM) offer a promising avenue by enabling qualitative reasoning over evolving relationships. In this work, we propose a specific class of MCM with desirable properties for explicitly modeling and predicting intervention outcomes under meta-causal dynamics, together with a first method for meta-causal analysis. Through expository examples in high-impact domains of medical treatment and judicial decision-making, we highlight the severe consequences that arise when system dynamics are neglected and demonstrate the successful application of meta-causal strategies to navigate these challenges.

Causal mediation analysis is crucial for deconstructing complex mechanisms of action. However, in current mediation analysis, complex structures derived from causal discovery lack direct interpretation of mediation pathways, while traditional mediation analysis and effect estimation are limited by the reliance on pre-specified pathways, leading to a disconnection between structure discovery and causal mechanism understanding. Therefore, a unified framework integrating structure discovery, pathway identification, and effect estimation systematically quantifies mediation pathways under structural uncertainty, enabling automated identification and inference of mediation pathways. To this end, we propose Structure-Informed Guided Mediation Analysis (SIGMA), which guides automated mediation pathway identification through probabilistic causal structure discovery and uncertainty quantification, enabling end-to-end propagation of structural uncertainty from structure learning to effect estimation. Specifically, SIGMA employs differentiable Flow-Structural Equation Models to learn structural posteriors, generating diverse Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) to quantify structural uncertainty. Based on these DAGs, we introduce the Path Stability Score to evaluate the marginal probability of pathways, identifying high-confidence mediation paths. For identified mediation pathways, we integrate Efficient Influence Functions with Bayesian model averaging to fuse within-structure estimation uncertainty and between-structure effect variation, propagating uncertainty to the final effect estimates. In synthetic data experiments, SIGMA achieves state-of-the-art performance in pathway identification accuracy and effect quantification precision under structures uncertainty, concurrent multiple pathways, and nonlinear scenarios. In real-world applications using Human Phenotype Project data, SIGMA identifies mediation effects of sleep quality on cardiovascular health through inflammatory and metabolic pathways, uncovering previously unspecified multiple mediation paths.

Understanding the predictions made by deep learning models remains a central challenge, especially in high-stakes applications. A promising approach is to equip models with the ability to answer counterfactual questions -- hypothetical ``what if?'' scenarios that go beyond the observed data and provide insight into a model reasoning. In this work, we introduce the notion of causal interpretability, which formalizes when counterfactual queries can be evaluated from a specific class of models and observational data. We analyze two common model classes -- blackbox and concept-based predictors -- and show that neither is causally interpretable in general. To address this gap, we develop a framework for building models that are causally interpretable by design. Specifically, we derive a complete graphical criterion that determines whether a given model architecture supports a given counterfactual query. This leads to a fundamental tradeoff between causal interpretability and predictive accuracy, which we characterize by identifying the unique maximal set of features that yields an interpretable model with maximal predictive expressiveness. Experiments corroborate the theoretical findings.

Recommender systems are among the most impactful AI applications, interacting with billions of users every day, guiding them to relevant products, services, or information tailored to their preferences. However, the research and development of recommender systems are hindered by existing datasets that fail to capture realistic user behaviors and inconsistent evaluation settings that lead to ambiguous conclusions. This paper introduces the \textbf{O}pen \textbf{R}ecommendation \textbf{B}enchmark for Reproducible Research with H\textbf{I}dden \textbf{T}ests (\textbf{ORBIT}), a unified benchmark for consistent and realistic evaluation of recommendation models. ORBIT offers a standardized evaluation framework of public datasets with reproducible splits and transparent settings for its public leaderboard. Additionally, ORBIT introduces a new webpage recommendation task, ClueWeb-Reco, featuring web browsing sequences from 87 million public, high-quality webpages. ClueWeb-Reco is a synthetic dataset derived from real, user-consented, and privacy-guaranteed browsing data. It aligns with modern recommendation scenarios and is reserved as the hidden test part of our leaderboard to challenge recommendation models' generalization ability. ORBIT measures 12 representative recommendation models on its public benchmark and introduces a prompted LLM baseline on the ClueWeb-Reco hidden test. Our benchmark results reflect general improvements of recommender systems on the public datasets, with variable individual performances. The results on the hidden test reveal the limitations of existing approaches in large-scale webpage recommendation and highlight the potential for improvements with LLM integrations. ORBIT benchmark, leaderboard, and codebase are available at \url{https://www.open-reco-bench.ai}.

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic finite-sample guarantees. Yet, existing methods for conformal prediction of causal effects are limited to binary/discrete treatments and make highly restrictive assumptions, such as known propensity scores. In this work, we provide a novel conformal prediction method for potential outcomes of continuous treatments. We account for the additional uncertainty introduced through propensity estimation so that our conformal prediction intervals are valid even if the propensity score is unknown. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) We derive finite-sample validity guarantees for prediction intervals of potential outcomes of continuous treatments. (2) We provide an algorithm for calculating the derived intervals. (3) We demonstrate the effectiveness of the conformal prediction intervals in experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose conformal prediction for continuous treatments when the propensity score is unknown and must be estimated from data.

Cross-view geo-localization (CVGL) aims to estimate the geographic location of a street image by matching it with a corresponding aerial image. This is critical for autonomous navigation and mapping in complex real-world scenarios. However, the task remains challenging due to significant viewpoint differences and the influence of confounding factors. To tackle these issues, we propose the Causal Learning and Geometric Topology (CLGT) framework, which integrates two key components: a Causal Feature Extractor (CFE) that mitigates the influence of confounding factors by leveraging causal intervention to encourage the model to focus on stable, task-relevant semantics; and a Geometric Topology Fusion (GT Fusion) module that injects Bird’s Eye View (BEV) road topology into street features to alleviate cross-view inconsistencies caused by extreme perspective changes. Additionally, we introduce a Data-Adaptive Pooling (DA Pooling) module to enhance the representation of semantically rich regions. Extensive experiments on CVUSA, CVACT, and their robustness-enhanced variants (CVUSA-C-ALL and CVACT-C-ALL) demonstrate that CLGT achieves state-of-the-art performance, particularly under challenging real-world corruptions.

Modeling hierarchical latent dynamics behind time series data is critical for capturing temporal dependencies across multiple levels of abstraction in real-world tasks. However, existing temporal causal representation learning methods fail to capture such dynamics, as they fail to recover the joint distribution of hierarchical latent variables from \textit{single-timestep observed variables}. Interestingly, we find that the joint distribution of hierarchical latent variables can be uniquely determined using three conditionally independent observations. Building on this insight, we propose a Causally Hierarchical Latent Dynamic (CHiLD) identification framework. Our approach first employs temporal contextual observed variables to identify the joint distribution of multi-layer latent variables. Sequentially, we exploit the natural sparsity of the hierarchical structure among latent variables to identify latent variables within each layer. Guided by the theoretical results, we develop a time series generative model grounded in variational inference. This model incorporates a contextual encoder to reconstruct multi-layer latent variables and normalize flow-based hierarchical prior networks to impose the independent noise condition of hierarchical latent dynamics. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical claims and demonstrate the effectiveness of CHiLD in modeling hierarchical latent dynamics.