NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Despite remarkable advances in coding capabilities, language models (LMs) still struggle with simple syntactic tasks such as generating balanced parentheses. In this study, we investigate the underlying mechanisms behind the persistence of these errors across LMs of varying sizes (124M–7B) to both understand and mitigate the errors. Our study reveals that LMs rely on a number of components (attention heads and FF neurons) that independently make their own predictions. While some components reliably promote correct answers across a generalized range of inputs (i.e., implementing "sound mechanisms''), others are less reliable and introduce noise by promoting incorrect tokens (i.e., implementing "faulty mechanisms''). Errors occur when the faulty mechanisms overshadow the sound ones and dominantly affect the predictions. Motivated by this insight, we introduce RASteer, a steering method to systematically identify and increase the contribution of reliable components for improving model performance. RASteer substantially improves performance on balanced parentheses tasks, boosting accuracy of some models from $0$\% to around $100$\% without impairing the models' general coding ability. We further demonstrate its broader applicability in arithmetic reasoning tasks, achieving performance gains of up to around $20$\%.

Multi-compartment Hodgkin-Huxley models are biophysical models of how electrical signals propagate throughout a neuron, and they form the basis of our knowledge of neural computation at the cellular level. However, these models have many free parameters that must be estimated for each cell, and existing fitting methods rely on intracellular voltage measurements that are highly challenging to obtain in-vivo. Recent advances in neural recording technology with high-density probes and arrays enable dense sampling of extracellular voltage from many sites surrounding a neuron, allowing indirect measurement of many compartments of a cell simultaneously. Here, we propose a method for inferring the underlying membrane voltage, biophysical parameters, and the neuron's position relative to the probe, using extracellular measurements alone. We use an Extended Kalman Filter to infer membrane voltage and channel states using efficient, differentiable simulators. Then, we learn the model parameters by maximizing the marginal likelihood using gradient-based methods. We demonstrate the performance of this approach using simulated data and real neuron morphologies.

We introduce FlexOLMo, a new class of language models (LMs) that supports (1) distributed training without data sharing, where different model parameters are independently trained on private datasets, and (2) data-flexible inference, where these parameters along with their associated data can be easily included or excluded from model inferences with no further training. FlexOLMo employs a mixture-of-experts (MoE) architecture where each expert is trained independently on private datasets and later integrated through a new nonparametric routing without any joint training across datasets. FlexOLMo is trained on FLEXMIX, a corpus we curate comprising seven restricted sets, either real or realistic approximations, alongside publicly available datasets. We evaluate models with up to 37 billion parameters (20 billion active) on 31 diverse downstream tasks. We show that a general expert trained on public data can be effectively combined with independently trained experts from other data owners significantly benefiting from these restricted sets (an average 41% relative improvement) while allowing flexible opt-out at inference time (e.g., for users without appropriate licenses or permissions). Our approach also outperforms prior model merging methods by 10.1% on average and surpasses the standard MoE trained without data restrictions using the same training FLOPs. Altogether, FlexOLMo enables training on restricted data while keeping data local and supports fine-grained control of data access at inference.

This work challenges the residual prediction paradigm in visual autoregressive modeling and presents FlexVAR, a new Flexible Visual AutoRegressive image generation paradigm. FlexVAR facilitates autoregressive learning with ground-truth prediction, enabling each step to independently produce plausible images. This simple, intuitive approach swiftly learns visual distributions and makes the generation process more flexible and adaptable. Trained solely on low-resolution images (< 256px), FlexVAR can: (1) Generate images of various resolutions and aspect ratios, even exceeding the resolution of the training images. (2) Support various image-to-image tasks, including image refinement, in/out-painting, and image expansion. (3) Adapt to various autoregressive steps, allowing for faster inference with fewer steps or enhancing image quality with more steps. Our 1.0B model outperforms its VAR counterpart on the ImageNet 256 × 256 benchmark. Moreover, when zero-shot transfer the image generation process with 13 steps, the performance further improves to 2.08 FID, outperforming state-of-the-art autoregressive models AiM/VAR by 0.25/0.28 FID and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.52/0.19 FID, respectively. When transferring our 1.0B model to the ImageNet 512 × 512 benchmark in a zero-shot manner, FlexVAR achieves competitive results compared to the VAR 2.3B model, which is a fully supervised model trained at 512 × 512 resolution.

Training LLMs relies on distributed implementations using multiple GPUs to compute gradients in parallel with sharded optimizers. However, synchronizing gradients in data parallel setups introduces communication overhead that grows with the number of workers, limiting parallelization efficiency. Local optimization algorithms reduce communications but incur high memory costs as they prevent optimizer state sharding, hindering scalability. To address this, we propose $\textbf{AC}$cumulate while $\textbf{CO}$mmunicate ($\texttt{ACCO}$), a memory-efficient optimization algorithm for distributed LLM training. By synchronizing delayed gradients while computing new ones, $\texttt{ACCO}$ reduces GPU idle time and supports heterogeneous hardware. To mitigate the convergence issues caused by delayed updates, we introduce a novel technique ensuring training dynamics align with standard distributed optimization. Compared to ZeRO-1, our approach is significantly faster and scales effectively across heterogeneous hardware.

Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations with a dynamical model to estimate states of PDE-governed systems. Model-driven methods (e.g., Kalman Filter, Particle Filter) presuppose full knowledge of the true dynamics, which is not always satisfied in practice, while purely data-driven solvers learn a deterministic mapping between observations and states and therefore miss the intrinsic stochasticity of real processes. Recently, score-based diffusion models have shown promise for DA by learning a global diffusion prior to represent stochastic dynamics. However, their one-shot generation lacks stepwise physical consistency and struggles with complex stochastic processes. To address these issues, we propose FlowDAS, a generative DA framework that employs stochastic interpolants to learn state transition dynamics through step-by-step stochastic updates. By incorporating observations into each transition, FlowDAS can produce stable, measurement-consistent forecasts. Experiments on Lorenz-63, Navier–Stokes super-resolution/sparse-observation scenarios, and large-scale weather forecasting—where dynamics are partly or wholly unknown—show that FlowDAS surpasses model-driven methods, neural operators, and score-based baselines in accuracy and physical plausibility. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/umjiayx/FlowDAS.

Large language models (LLMs) have been used in many zero-shot learning problems, with their strong generalization ability. Recently, adopting LLMs in text-attributed graphs (TAGs) has drawn increasing attention. However, the adoption of LLMs faces two major challenges: limited information on graph structure and unreliable responses. LLMs struggle with text attributes isolated from the graph topology. Worse still, they yield unreliable predictions due to both information insufficiency and the inherent weakness of LLMs (e.g., hallucination). Towards this end, this paper proposes a novel method named Dynamic Text Bundling Supervision (DENSE) that queries LLMs with bundles of texts to obtain bundle-level labels and uses these labels to supervise graph neural networks. Specifically, we sample a set of bundles, each containing a set of nodes with corresponding texts of close proximity. We then query LLMs with the bundled texts to obtain the label of each bundle. Subsequently, the bundle labels are used to supervise the optimization of graph neural networks, and the bundles are further refined to exclude noisy items. To justify our design, we also provide theoretical analysis of the proposed method. Extensive experiments across ten datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic finite-sample guarantees. Yet, existing methods for conformal prediction of causal effects are limited to binary/discrete treatments and make highly restrictive assumptions, such as known propensity scores. In this work, we provide a novel conformal prediction method for potential outcomes of continuous treatments. We account for the additional uncertainty introduced through propensity estimation so that our conformal prediction intervals are valid even if the propensity score is unknown. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) We derive finite-sample validity guarantees for prediction intervals of potential outcomes of continuous treatments. (2) We provide an algorithm for calculating the derived intervals. (3) We demonstrate the effectiveness of the conformal prediction intervals in experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose conformal prediction for continuous treatments when the propensity score is unknown and must be estimated from data.

Graphons offer a powerful framework for modeling large-scale networks, yet estimation remains challenging. We propose a novel approach that leverages a low-rank additive representation, yielding both a low-rank connection probability matrix and a low-rank graphon--two goals rarely achieved jointly. Our method resolves identification issues and enables an efficient sequential algorithm based on subgraph counts and interpolation. We establish consistency and demonstrate strong empirical performance in terms of computational efficiency and estimation accuracy through simulations and data analysis.

Multimodal large language models have unlocked new possibilities for various multimodal tasks. However, their potential in image manipulation detection remains unexplored. When directly applied to the IMD task, M-LLMs often produce reasoning texts that suffer from hallucinations and overthinking. To address this, we propose ForgerySleuth, which leverages M-LLMs to perform comprehensive clue fusion and generate segmentation outputs indicating specific regions that are tampered with. Moreover, we construct the ForgeryAnalysis dataset through the Chain-of-Clues prompt, which includes analysis and reasoning text to upgrade the image manipulation detection task. A data engine is also introduced to build a larger-scale dataset for the pre-training phase. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of ForgeryAnalysis and show that ForgerySleuth significantly outperforms existing methods in generalization, robustness, and explainability.

Recommendation models are predominantly trained using implicit user feedback, since explicit feedback is often costly to obtain. However, implicit feedback, such as clicks, does not always reflect users' real preferences. For example, a user might click on a news article because of its attractive headline, but end up feeling uncomfortable after reading the content. In the absence of explicit feedback, such erroneous implicit signals may severely mislead recommender systems. In this paper, we propose MTRec, a novel sequential recommendation framework designed to align with real user preferences by uncovering their internal satisfaction on recommended items. Specifically, we introduce a mental reward model to quantify user satisfaction and propose a distributional inverse reinforcement learning approach to learn it. The learned mental reward model is then used to guide recommendation models to better align with users’ real preferences. Our experiments show that MTRec brings significant improvements to a variety of recommendation models. We also deploy MTRec on an industrial short video platform and observe a 7\% increase in average user viewing time.

Communication is one of the effective means to improve the learning of cooperative policy in multi-agent systems. However, in most real-world scenarios, lossy communication is a prevalent issue. Existing multi-agent reinforcement learning with communication, due to their limited scalability and robustness, struggles to apply to complex and dynamic real-world environments. To address these challenges, we propose a generalized communication-constrained model to uniformly characterize communication conditions across different scenarios. Based on this, we utilize it as a learning prior to distinguish between lossy and lossless messages for specific scenarios. Additionally, we decouple the impact of lossy and lossless messages on distributed decision-making, drawing on a dual mutual information estimatior, and introduce a communication-constrained multi-agent reinforcement learning framework, quantifying the impact of communication messages into the global reward. Finally, we validate the effectiveness of our approach across several communication-constrained benchmarks.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have emerged as the next generation of models in robotics. However, despite leveraging powerful pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs), existing end-to-end VLA systems often lose key capabilities during fine-tuning as the model adapts to specific robotic tasks. We argue that a generalizable VLA model should retain and expand upon the VLM's core competencies: 1) **Open-world reasoning** - the VLA should inherit the knowledge from VLM, i.e., recognize anything that the VLM can recognize, capable of solving math problems, possessing visual-spatial intelligence, 2) **Reasoning following** – effectively translating the open-world reasoning into actionable steps for the robot. In this work, we introduce **ChatVLA-2**, a novel mixture-of-expert VLA model coupled with a specialized three-stage training pipeline designed to preserve the VLM’s original strengths while enabling actionable reasoning. To validate our approach, we design a math-matching task wherein a robot interprets math problems written on a whiteboard and picks corresponding number cards from a table to solve equations. Remarkably, our method exhibits exceptional mathematical reasoning and OCR capabilities, despite these abilities not being explicitly trained within the VLA. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the VLA possesses strong spatial reasoning skills, enabling it to interpret novel directional instructions involving previously unseen objects. Overall, our method showcases reasoning and comprehension abilities that significantly surpass state-of-the-art imitation learning methods such as OpenVLA, DexVLA, and $\pi_0$. This work represents a substantial advancement toward developing truly generalizable robotic foundation models endowed with robust reasoning capacities.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress on advanced reasoning tasks such as mathematics and coding competitions. Meanwhile, physics, despite being both reasoning-intensive and essential to real-world understanding, received limited academic and industrial attention. This paper introduces PHYSICS, a dataset containing 16,568 high-quality physics problems spanning subjects and difficulty levels, to facilitate this issue. Specifically, PHYSICS is curated with exercises from over 100 textbooks through a carefully designed pipeline for quality control. It covers five major physics domains: Mechanics, Electromagnetism, Thermodynamics, Optics, and Modern Physics. It also spans a wide range of difficulty levels, from high school to graduate-level physics courses. To utilize the data for improving and evaluating the model's physical reasoning capabilities, we split the dataset into training and test sets, and provide reasoning paths generated by powerful reasoning models for the training data to facilitate model training. In addition, for the evaluation part, we find that existing evaluation frameworks exhibit biases in aspects such as units, simplification, and precision in physics domain. To balance efficiency and accuracy, we introduce a Rule+Model evaluation framework tailored to physics problems. Our evaluations on current state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary models highlight the limitations of current models in handling physics-related tasks. We hope that our dataset and evaluation methodology will jointly advance the development of LLMs in the field of physics. The code and data can be found at: https://github.com/Zhengsh123/PHYSICS.

Maintaining consistent model performance across domains is a fundamental challenge in machine learning. While recent work has explored using LLM-generated data for fine-tuning, its impact on cross-domain generalization remains poorly understood. This paper presents a systematic analysis revealing that fine-tuning with LLM-generated data not only improves target task performance but also reduces non-target task degradation compared to fine-tuning with ground truth data. Through analyzing the data sequence in tasks of various domains, we demonstrate that this enhancement of non-target task robustness stems from the reduction of high perplexity tokens found in LLM-generated sequences. Following our findings, we showed that masking high perplexity tokens in ground truth training data achieves similar non-target task performance preservation, comparable to using LLM-generated data. Extensive experiments across different model families and scales, including Gemma 2 IT 2B, Llama 3 8B Instruct, and three additional models, agree with our findings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to provide an empirical explanation based on token perplexity reduction to mitigate catastrophic forgetting in LLMs after fine-tuning, offering valuable insights for developing more robust fine-tuning strategies.

We introduce Toto, a time series forecasting foundation model with 151 million parameters. Toto uses a modern decoder-only architecture coupled with architectural innovations designed to account for specific challenges found in multivariate observability time series data. Toto's pre-training corpus is a mixture of observability data, open datasets, and synthetic data, and is 4-10$\times$ larger than those of leading time series foundation models. Additionally, we introduce BOOM, a large-scale benchmark consisting of 350 million observations across 2,807 real-world time series. For both Toto and BOOM, we source observability data exclusively from our own telemetry and internal observability metrics. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that Toto achieves state-of-the-art performance on both BOOM and on established general purpose time series forecasting benchmarks. Toto's model weights, inference code, and evaluation scripts, as well as BOOM's data and evaluation code, are all available as open source under the Apache 2.0 License.

The rapid growth of data-driven technologies and the emergence of various data-sharing paradigms have underscored the need for efficient and stable data exchange protocols. In any such exchange, agents must carefully balance the benefit of acquiring valuable data against the cost of sharing their own. Ensuring stability in these exchanges is essential to prevent agents—or groups of agents—from departing and conducting local (and potentially more favorable) exchanges among themselves. To address this, we study a model where $n$ agents participate in a data exchange. Each agent has an associated payoff for the data acquired from other agents and a cost incurred during sharing its own data. The net utility of an agent is payoff minus the cost. We adapt the classical notion of *core-stability* from cooperative game theory to data exchange. A data exchange is core-stable if no subset of agents has any incentive to deviate to a different exchange. We show that a core-stable data exchange is guaranteed to exist when agents have concave payoff functions and convex cost functions-- a setting typical in domains like PAC learning and random discovery models. We show that relaxing either of the foregoing conditions may result in the nonexistence of core-stable data exchanges. Then, we prove that finding a core-stable exchange is *PPAD-hard*, even when the potential blocking coalitions are restricted to constant size. To the best of our knowledge, this provides the first known PPAD-hardness result for core-like guarantees in data economics. Finally, we show that data exchange can be modelled as a *balanced* $n$-person game. This immediately gives a pivoting algorithm via Scarf's theorem [Scarf1967core]. We show that the pivoting algorithm works well in practice through our empirical results.

We argue that diffusion models' success in modeling complex distributions is, for the most part, coming from their conditioning. This paper investigates the representation used to condition diffusion models from the perspective that ideal representations should improve modeling the data distribution, be easy to generate, and be compositional to allow generalizing outside the training distribution. We introduce Discrete Latent Code (DLC), an image representation derived from Simplicial Embeddings trained with a self-supervised learning objective. DLCs are sequences of discrete tokens, as opposed to the standard continuous image embeddings. They are easy to generate and their compositionality enables sampling of novel images beyond the training distribution. Diffusion models trained with DLCs improve generation fidelity, establishing a new state-of-the-art for unconditional image generation on ImageNet. Additionally, we show that composing DLCs allows the image generator to produce interesting out-of-distribution samples that coherently combine the semantics of images in diverse ways. Finally, we showcase how DLCs can enable text-to-image generation by leveraging large-scale pretrained language models. Using only 9M image-caption pairs, we efficiently finetune a text diffusion model to generate novel DLCs that produces samples outside of the data distribution used to train the image generator.

Real-time decoding of neural activity is central to neuroscience and neurotechnology applications, from closed-loop experiments to brain-computer interfaces, where models are subject to strict latency constraints. Traditional methods, including simple recurrent neural networks, are fast and lightweight but often struggle to generalize to unseen data. In contrast, recent Transformer-based approaches leverage large-scale pretraining for strong generalization performance, but typically have much larger computational requirements and are not always suitable for low-resource or real-time settings. To address these shortcomings, we present POSSM, a novel hybrid architecture that combines individual spike tokenization via a cross-attention module with a recurrent state-space model (SSM) backbone to enable (1) fast and causal online prediction on neural activity and (2) efficient generalization to new sessions, individuals, and tasks through multi-dataset pretraining. We evaluate POSSM's decoding performance and inference speed on intracortical decoding of monkey motor tasks, and show that it extends to clinical applications, namely handwriting and speech decoding in human subjects. Notably, we demonstrate that pretraining on monkey motor-cortical recordings improves decoding performance on the human handwriting task, highlighting the exciting potential for cross-species transfer. In all of these tasks, we find that POSSM achieves decoding accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art Transformers, at a fraction of the inference cost (up to 9x faster on GPU). These results suggest that hybrid SSMs are a promising approach to bridging the gap between accuracy, inference speed, and generalization when training neural decoders for real-time, closed-loop applications.