NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Weather prediction is a critical task for human society, where impressive progress has been made by training artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) methods with reanalysis data. However, reliance on reanalysis data limits the AIWPs with shortcomings, including data assimilation biases and temporal discrepancies. To liberate AIWPs from the reanalysis data, observation forecasting emerges as a transformative paradigm for weather prediction. One of the key challenges in observation forecasting is learning spatiotemporal dynamics across disparate measurement systems with irregular high-resolution observation data, which constrains the design and prediction of AIWPs. To this end, we propose our DAWP as an innovative framework to enable AIWPs to operate in a complete observation space by initialization with an artificial intelligence data assimilation (AIDA) module. Specifically, our AIDA module applies a mask multi-modality autoencoder (MMAE) for assimilating irregular satellite observation tokens encoded by mask ViT-VAEs. For AIWP, we introduce a spatiotemporal decoupling transformer with cross-regional boundary conditioning (CBC), learning the dynamics in observation space, to enable sub-image-based global observation forecasting. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that AIDA initialization significantly improves the roll-out and efficiency of AIWP. Additionally, we show that DAWP holds promising potential to be applied in global precipitation forecasting.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) often rely on rate coding, where high-precision inference depends on long time-steps, leading to significant latency and energy cost—especially for ANN-to-SNN conversions. To address this, we propose Adaptive Fission, a post-training encoding technique that selectively splits high-sensitivity neurons into groups with varying scales and weights. This enables neuron-specific, on-demand precision and threshold allocation while introducing minimal spatial overhead. As a generalized form of population coding, it seamlessly applies to a wide range of pretrained SNN architectures without requiring additional training or fine-tuning. Experiments on neuromorphic hardware demonstrate up to 80\% reductions in latency and power consumption without degrading accuracy.

A common view of sensory processing is as probabilistic inference of latent causes from receptor activations. Standard approaches often assume these causes are \textit{a priori} independent, yet real-world generative factors are typically correlated. Representing such structured priors in neural systems poses architectural challenges, particularly when direct interactions between units representing latent causes are biologically implausible or computationally expensive. Inspired by the architecture of the olfactory bulb, we propose a novel circuit motif that enables inference with correlated priors without requiring direct interactions among latent cause units. The key insight lies in using \textit{sister cells}: neurons receiving shared receptor input but connected differently to local interneurons. The required interactions among latent units are implemented indirectly through their connections to the sister cells, such that correlated connectivity implies anti-correlation in the prior and vice versa. We use geometric arguments to construct connectivity that implements a given prior and to bound the number of causes for which such priors can be constructed. Using simulations, we demonstrate the efficacy of such priors for inference in noisy environments and compare the inference dynamics to those experimentally observed. Finally, we show how, under certain assumptions on latent representations, the prior used can be inferred from sister cell activations. While biologically grounded in the olfactory system, our mechanism generalises to other natural and artificial sensory systems and may inform the design of architectures for efficient inference under correlated latent structure.

The brain's diverse spatiotemporal activity patterns are fundamental to cognition and consciousness, yet how these macroscopic dynamics emerge from microscopic neural circuitry remains a critical challenge. We take a step in this direction by developing a spatially extended neural network model integrated with a spectral theory of its connectivity matrix. Our theory quantitatively demonstrates how local structural parameters, such as E/I neuron projection ranges, connection strengths, and density determine distinct features of the eigenvalue spectrum, specifically outlier eigenvalues and a bulk disk. These spectral signatures, in turn, precisely predict the network's emergent global dynamical regime, encompassing asynchronous states, synchronous states, oscillations, localized activity bumps, traveling waves, and chaos. Motivated by observations of shifting cortical dynamics in mice across arousal states, our framework not only provides a possible explanation for repertoire of behaviors but also offers a principled starting point for inferring underlying effective connectivity changes from macroscopic brain activity. By mechanistically linking neural structure to dynamics, this work advances a principled framework for dissecting how large-scale activity patterns—central to cognition and open questions in consciousness research—arise from, and constrain, local circuitry. The implementation code is available at https://github.com/huang-yh20/spatial-linear-project.

Open-world reinforcement learning challenges agents to develop intelligent behavior in vast exploration spaces. Recent approaches like LS-Imagine have advanced the field by extending imagination horizons through jumpy state transitions, yet remain limited by fixed exploration mechanisms and static jump thresholds that cannot adapt across changing task phases, resulting in inefficient exploration and lower completion rates. Humans demonstrate remarkable capabilities in open-world decision-making through a chain-like process of task decomposition, selective memory utilization, and adaptive uncertainty regulation. Inspired by human decision-making processes, we present Cognitive Predictive Processing (CPP), a novel framework that integrates three neurologically-inspired systems: a phase-adaptive cognitive controller that dynamically decomposes tasks into exploration, approach, and completion phases with adaptive parameters; a dual-memory integration system implementing dual-modal memory that balances immediate context with selective long-term storage; and an uncertainty-modulated prediction regulator that continuously updates environmental predictions to modulate exploration behavior. Comprehensive experiments in MineDojo demonstrate that these human-inspired decision-making strategies enhance performance over recent techniques, with success rates improving by an average of 4.6\% across resource collection tasks while reducing task completion steps by an average of 7.1\%. Our approach bridges cognitive neuroscience and reinforcement learning, excelling in complex scenarios that require sustained exploration and strategic adaptation while demonstrating how neural-inspired models can solve key challenges in open-world AI systems.

Domain Adaptation of Black-box Predictors (DABP) transfers knowledge from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain, without requiring access to either source data or source model. Common practices of DABP leverage reliable samples to suppress negative information about unreliable samples. However, there are still some problems: i) Excessive attention to reliable sample aggregation leads to premature overfitting; ii) Valuable information in unreliable samples is often overlooked. To address them, we propose a novel spatial learning approach, called Controlled Visual Hallucination via Thalamus-driven Decoupling Network (CVH-TDN). Specifically, CVH-TDN is the first work that introduces the thalamus-driven decoupling network in the visual task, relying on its connection with hallucination to control the direction of sample generation in feature space. CVH-TDN is composed of Hallucination Generation (HG), Hallucination Alignment (HA), and Hallucination Calibration (HC), aiming to explore the spatial relationship information between samples and hallucinations. Extensive experiments confirm that CVH-TDN achieves SOTA performance on four standard benchmarks.

Multi-compartment Hodgkin-Huxley models are biophysical models of how electrical signals propagate throughout a neuron, and they form the basis of our knowledge of neural computation at the cellular level. However, these models have many free parameters that must be estimated for each cell, and existing fitting methods rely on intracellular voltage measurements that are highly challenging to obtain in-vivo. Recent advances in neural recording technology with high-density probes and arrays enable dense sampling of extracellular voltage from many sites surrounding a neuron, allowing indirect measurement of many compartments of a cell simultaneously. Here, we propose a method for inferring the underlying membrane voltage, biophysical parameters, and the neuron's position relative to the probe, using extracellular measurements alone. We use an Extended Kalman Filter to infer membrane voltage and channel states using efficient, differentiable simulators. Then, we learn the model parameters by maximizing the marginal likelihood using gradient-based methods. We demonstrate the performance of this approach using simulated data and real neuron morphologies.

Real-time decoding of neural activity is central to neuroscience and neurotechnology applications, from closed-loop experiments to brain-computer interfaces, where models are subject to strict latency constraints. Traditional methods, including simple recurrent neural networks, are fast and lightweight but often struggle to generalize to unseen data. In contrast, recent Transformer-based approaches leverage large-scale pretraining for strong generalization performance, but typically have much larger computational requirements and are not always suitable for low-resource or real-time settings. To address these shortcomings, we present POSSM, a novel hybrid architecture that combines individual spike tokenization via a cross-attention module with a recurrent state-space model (SSM) backbone to enable (1) fast and causal online prediction on neural activity and (2) efficient generalization to new sessions, individuals, and tasks through multi-dataset pretraining. We evaluate POSSM's decoding performance and inference speed on intracortical decoding of monkey motor tasks, and show that it extends to clinical applications, namely handwriting and speech decoding in human subjects. Notably, we demonstrate that pretraining on monkey motor-cortical recordings improves decoding performance on the human handwriting task, highlighting the exciting potential for cross-species transfer. In all of these tasks, we find that POSSM achieves decoding accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art Transformers, at a fraction of the inference cost (up to 9x faster on GPU). These results suggest that hybrid SSMs are a promising approach to bridging the gap between accuracy, inference speed, and generalization when training neural decoders for real-time, closed-loop applications.

Biological sensorimotor systems process information through spatially organized, functionally specialized modules. A canonical example is the rodent barrel cortex, in which each vibrissa (whisker) projects to a dedicated cortical column, forming a precise somatotopic map. This anatomical organization stands in stark contrast to the architectures of most artificial neural networks, which are typically monolithic or rely on globally routed mixture-of-experts (MoE) mechanisms. In this work, we introduce a brain-inspired modular architecture that treats the barrel cortex as a biologically constrained instantiation of an expert system. Each module (or “expert”) corresponds to a cortical column composed of multiple neuron subtypes spanning vertical cortical layers. Sensory signals are routed exclusively to their corresponding columns, with inter-column communication restricted to local neighbors via a sparse gating mechanism. Despite these anatomical constraints, our model achieves competitive, state-of-the-art performance on challenging 3D tactile object classification benchmarks. Columnar parameter sharing provides inherent regularization, enabling 97\% parameter reduction with improved training stability. Notably, constrained localist routing suppresses inter-module activity correlations, mirroring the barrel cortex's lateral inhibition for sensory differentiation, while suggesting MoE's potential to reduce expert redundancy through collaborative constraints. These results demonstrate how cortical principles of localist-expert routing and topographic organization can be translated into machine learning architectures, providing a step toward next-generation expert systems that bridge neuroscience and artificial intelligence. Code is available at https://github.com/fun0515/MultiBarrelModel.

We propose MoGe-2, an advanced open-domain geometry estimation model that recovers a metric-scale 3D point map of a scene from a single image. Our method builds upon the recent monocular geometry estimation approach, MoGe, which predicts affine-invariant point maps with unknown scales. We explore effective strategies to extend MoGe for metric geometry prediction without compromising the relative geometry accuracy provided by the affine-invariant point representation. Additionally, we discover that noise and errors in real data diminish fine-grained detail in the predicted geometry. We address this by developing a data refinement approach that filters and completes real data using sharp synthetic labels, significantly enhancing the granularity of the reconstructed geometry while maintaining the overall accuracy. We train our model on a large corpus of mixed datasets and conducted comprehensive evaluations, demonstrating its superior performance in achieving accurate relative geometry, precise metric scale, and fine-grained detail recovery -- capabilities that no previous methods have simultaneously achieved.

Unmanned aerial vehicles could accurately accomplish complex navigation and obstacle avoidance tasks under external control. However, enabling unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to rely solely on onboard computation and sensing for real-time navigation and dynamic obstacle avoidance remains a significant challenge due to stringent latency and energy constraints. Inspired by the efficiency of biological systems, we propose a fully neuromorphic framework achieving end-to-end obstacle avoidance during navigation with an overall latency of just 2.3 milliseconds. Specifically, our bio-inspired approach enables accurate moving object detection and avoidance without requiring target recognition or trajectory computation. Additionally, we introduce the first monocular event-based pose correction dataset with over 50,000 paired and labeled event streams. We validate our system on an autonomous quadrotor using only onboard resources, demonstrating reliable navigation and avoidance of diverse obstacles moving at speeds up to 10 m/s.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has demonstrated impressive performance in 3D scene reconstruction. Beyond novel view synthesis, it shows great potential for multi-view surface reconstruction. Existing methods employ optimization-based reconstruction pipelines that achieve precise and complete surface extractions. However, these approaches typically require dense input views and high time consumption for per-scene optimization. To address these limitations, we propose SurfaceSplat, a feed-forward framework that generates efficient and generalizable pixel-aligned Gaussian surfel representations from sparse-view images. We observe that conventional feed-forward structures struggle to recover accurate geometric attributes of Gaussian surfels because the spatial frequency of pixel-aligned primitives exceeds Nyquist sampling rates. Therefore, we propose a cross-view feature aggregation module based on the Nyquist sampling theorem. Specifically, we first adapt the geometric forms of Gaussian surfels with spatial sampling rate-guided low-pass filters. We then project the filtered surfels across all input views to obtain cross-view feature correlations. By processing these correlations through a specially designed feature fusion network, we can finally regress Gaussian surfels with precise geometry. Extensive experiments on DTU reconstruction benchmarks demonstrate that our model achieves comparable results with state-of-the-art methods, and predict Gaussian surfels within 1 second, offering a 100× speedup without costly per-scene training.

Many decision-making processes involve evaluating and selecting items, including scientific peer review, job hiring, school admissions, and investment decisions. These domains feature error-prone evaluations and uncertainty about outcomes, which undermine deterministic selection rules. Consequently, randomized selection mechanisms are gaining traction. However, current randomized approaches are ad hoc and, as we prove, inappropriate for their purported objectives. We propose a principled framework for randomized decision-making based on interval estimates of item quality. We introduce MERIT (Maximin Efficient Randomized Interval Top-$k$), which maximizes the worst-case expected number of top candidates selected under uncertainty represented by overlapping intervals. MERIT provides optimal resource allocation under an interpretable robustness notion. We develop a polynomial-time, practically efficient algorithm and prove our approach satisfies desirable axiomatic properties not guaranteed by existing methods. Experiments on synthetic peer review data from grant funding and conferences demonstrate that MERIT matches existing algorithms' expected utility under fully probabilistic models while outperforming them under our worst-case formulation.

The "right to be forgotten" and the data privacy laws that encode it have motivated machine unlearning since its earliest days. Now, some argue that an inbound wave of artificial intelligence regulations — like the European Union's Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA) — may offer important new use cases for machine unlearning. However, this position paper argues, this opportunity will only be realized if researchers proactively bridge the (sometimes sizable) gaps between machine unlearning's state of the art and its potential applications to AI regulation. To demonstrate this point, we use the AIA as our primary case study. Specifically, we deliver a "state of the union" as regards machine unlearning's current potential (or, in many cases, lack thereof) for aiding compliance with the AIA. This starts with a precise cataloging of the potential applications of machine unlearning to AIA compliance. For each, we flag the technical gaps that exist between the potential application and the state of the art of machine unlearning. Finally, we end with a call to action: for machine learning researchers to solve the open technical questions that could unlock machine unlearning's potential to assist compliance with the AIA — and other AI regulation like it.

Speech neuroprostheses aim to restore communication for people with severe paralysis by decoding speech directly from neural activity. To accelerate algorithmic progress, a recent benchmark released intracranial recordings from a paralyzed participant attempting to speak, along with a baseline decoding algorithm. Prior work on the benchmark showed impressive accuracy gains. However, these gains increased computational costs and were not demonstrated in a real-time decoding setting. Here, we make three contributions that pave the way towards accurate, efficient, and real-time neural speech decoding. First, we incorporate large amounts of time-masking during training. On average, over $50\%$ of each trial is masked. Second, we replace the gated recurrent unit (GRU) architecture used in the baseline algorithm with a compact Transformer. The Transformer architecture uses $83\%$ fewer parameters, cuts peak GPU memory usage by $52\%$ relative, and is significantly faster to calibrate relative to the GRU. Third, we design a lightweight variant of an existing test-time adaptation method developed for decoding handwriting from neural activity. Our variant adapts the model using multiple time-masked augmentations of a single trial and requires only one gradient step per trial. Together, these contributions reduce word error rate by $20\%$ and effectively mitigate performance degradations across held-out days in a real-time decoding setting while substantially lowering computational costs.

We revisit scene-level 3D object detection as the output of an object-centric framework capable of both localization and mapping using 3D oriented boxes as the underlying geometric primitive. While existing 3D object detection approaches operate globally and implicitly rely on the a priori existence of metric camera poses, our method, Rooms from Motion (RfM) operates on a collection of un-posed images. By replacing the standard 2D keypoint-based matcher of structure-from-motion with an object-centric matcher based on image-derived 3D boxes, we estimate metric camera poses, object tracks, and finally produce a global, semantic 3D object map. When a priori pose is available, we can significantly improve map quality through optimization of global 3D boxes against individual observations. RfM shows strong localization performance and subsequently produces maps of higher quality than leading point-based and multi-view 3D object detection methods on CA-1M and ScanNet++, despite these global methods relying on overparameterization through point clouds or dense volumes. Rooms from Motion achieves a general, object-centric representation which not only extends the work of Cubify Anything to full scenes but also allows for inherently sparse localization and parametric mapping proportional to the number of objects in a scene.

Correlation Clustering (CC) is a foundational problem in unsupervised learning that models binary similarity relations using labeled graphs. While classical CC has been well studied, many real-world applications involve more nuanced relationships—either multi-class categorical interactions or varying confidence levels in edge labels. To address these, two natural generalizations have been proposed: Chromatic Correlation Clustering (CCC), which assigns semantic colors to edge labels, and pseudometric-weighted CC, which allows edge weights satisfying the triangle inequality. In this paper, we develop improved approximation algorithms for both settings. Our approach leverages LP-based pivoting techniques combined with problem-specific rounding functions. For the pseudometric-weighted correlation clustering problem, we present a tight $\frac{10}{3}$-approximation algorithm, matching the best possible bound achievable within the framework of standard LP relaxation combined with specialized rounding. For the Chromatic Correlation Clustering (CCC) problem, we improve the approximation ratio from the previous best of $2.5$ to $2.15$, and we establish a lower bound of $2.11$ within the same analytical framework, highlighting the near-optimality of our result.

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is marked by cognitive decline along with the widespread of tau aggregates across the brain cortex. Due to the challenges of imaging pathology spreading flows *in vivo*, however, quantitative analysis on the cortical pathways of tau propagation and its interaction with the cascade of amyloid-beta (A$\beta$) plaques lags behind the experimental insights of underlying pathophysiological mechanisms. To address this challenge, we present a physics-informed neural network, empowered by mean-field theory, to uncover the biologically meaningful spreading pathways of tau aggregates between two longitudinal snapshots. Following the notion of `prion-like' mechanism in AD, we first formulate the dynamics of tau propagation as a mean-field game (MFG), where the spread of tau aggregate at each location (aka. agent) depends on the collective behavior of the surrounding agents as well as the potential field formed by amyloid burden. Given the governing equation of propagation dynamics, MFG reaches an equilibrium that allows us to model the evolution of tau aggregates as an optimal transport with the lowest cost in *Wasserstein* space. By leveraging the variational primal-dual structure in MFG, we propose a *Wasserstein*-1 Lagrangian generative adversarial network (GAN), in which a Lipschitz critic seeks the appropriate transport cost at the population level and a generator parameterizes the flow fields of optimal transport across individuals. Additionally, we incorporate a symbolic regression module to derive an explicit formulation capturing the A$\beta$-tau crosstalk. Experimental results on public neuroimaging datasets demonstrate that our explainable deep model not only yields precise and reliable predictions of future tau progression for unseen new subjects but also provides a new window to uncover new understanding of pathology propagation in AD through learning-based approaches.

Given the large scale of public functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), e.g., UK Biobank (UKB) and Human Connectome Projects (HCP), brain foundation models are emerging. Although the amount of samples under rich environmental variables is unprecedented, existing brain foundation models learn from fMRI derived from a narrow range of cognitive states stimulated by similar environments, causing the limited robustness demonstrated in various applications and datasets acquired with different pipelines and limited sample size. By capitalizing on the variety of cognitive status as subjects performing explicit tasks, we present the mixture of brain experts, namely BrainMoE, pre-training on tasking fMRI with rich behavioral tasks in addition to resting fMRI for a robust brain foundation model. Brain experts are designed to produce embeddings for different behavioral tasks related to cognition. Afterward, these cognition embeddings are mixed by a cognition adapter via cross-attention so that BrainMoE can handle orthogonal embeddings and be robust on those boutique downstream datasets. We have pre-trained two existing self-regressive architectures and one new supervised architecture as brain experts on 68,251 fMRI scans among UKB and HCP, containing 12 different cognitive states. Then, BrainMoE is evaluated on a variety of applications, including sex, age prediction, human behavior recognition, disease early diagnosis of Autism, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, and Schizophrenia, and fMRI-EEG multimodal applications, where promising results in eight datasets from three different pipelines indicate great potential to facilitate current neuroimaging applications in clinical routines.