NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Designing optimal Bayes filters for nonlinear non-Gaussian systems is a challenging task. The main difficulties are: 1) representing complex beliefs, 2) handling non-Gaussian noise, and 3) marginalizing past states. To address these challenges, we focus on polynomial systems and propose the Max Entropy Moment Kalman Filter (MEM-KF). To address 1), we represent arbitrary beliefs by a Moment-Constrained Max-Entropy Distribution (MED). The MED can asymptotically approximate almost any distribution given an increasing number of moment constraints. To address 2), we model the noise in the process and observation model as MED. To address 3), we propagate the moments through the process model and recover the distribution as MED, thus avoiding symbolic integration, which is generally intractable. All the steps in MEM-KF, including the extraction of a point estimate, can be solved via convex optimization. We showcase the MEM-KF in challenging robotics tasks, such as localization with unknown data association.

We study the problem of efficiently estimating the mean of a $k$-class random variable, $Y$, using a limited number of labels, $N$, in settings where the analyst has access to auxiliary information (i.e.: covariates) $X$ that may be informative about $Y$. We propose an active learning algorithm ("PartiBandits") to estimate $\mathbb{E}[Y]$. The algorithm yields an estimate, $\widehat{\mu}_{\text{PB}}$, such that $\left( \widehat{\mu}_{\text{PB}} - \mathbb{E}[Y]\right)^2$ is $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left( \frac{\nu + \exp(c \cdot (-N/\log(N))) }{N} \right)$, where $c > 0$ is a constant and $\nu$ is the risk of the Bayes-optimal classifier. PartiBandits is essentially a two-stage algorithm. In the first stage, it learns a partition of the unlabeled data that shrinks the average conditional variance of $Y$. In the second stage it uses a UCB-style subroutine ("WarmStart-UCB") to request labels from each stratum round-by-round. Both the main algorithm's and the subroutine's convergence rates are minimax optimal in classical settings. PartiBandits bridges the UCB and disagreement-based approaches to active learning despite these two approaches being designed to tackle very different tasks. We illustrate our methods through simulation using nationwide electronic health records. Our methods can be implemented using the \textbf{PartiBandits} package in R.

We study streaming algorithms for Correlation Clustering. Given a graph as an arbitrary-order stream of edges, with each edge labeled as positive or negative, the goal is to partition the vertices into disjoint clusters, such that the number of disagreements is minimized. In this paper, we give the first learning-augmented streaming algorithms for the problem on both complete and general graphs, improving the best-known space-approximation tradeoffs. Based on the works of Cambus et al. (SODA'24) and Ahn et al. (ICML'15), our algorithms use the predictions of pairwise distances between vertices provided by a predictor. For complete graphs, our algorithm achieves a better-than-$3$ approximation under good prediction quality, while using $\tilde{O}(n)$ total space. For general graphs, our algorithm achieves an $O(\log |E^-|)$ approximation under good prediction quality using $\tilde{O}(n)$ total space, improving the best-known non-learning algorithm in terms of space efficiency. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithms over their non-learning counterparts.

Inverse protein folding addresses the challenge of designing amino acid sequences that fold into a predetermined tertiary structure, bridging geometric and evolutionary constraints to advance protein engineering. Inspired by the pivotal role of multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) in structure prediction models like AlphaFold, we hypothesize that structural alignments can provide an informative prior for inverse folding. In this study, we introduce DualMPNN, a dual-stream message passing neural network that leverages structurally homologous templates to guide amino acid sequence design of predefined query structures. DualMPNN processes the query and template proteins via two interactive branches, coupled through alignment-aware cross-stream attention mechanisms that enable exchange of geometric and co-evolutionary signals. Comprehensive evaluations across on CATH 4.2, TS50 and T500 benchmarks demonstrate DualMPNN achieves state-of-the-art recovery rates of 65.51\%, 70.99\%, and 70.37\%, significantly outperforming base model ProteinMPNN by 15.64\%, 16.56\%, 12.29\%, respectively. Further template quality analysis and structural foldability assessment underscore the value of structural alignment priors for protein design.

Conditional independence (CI) testing is a fundamental yet challenging task in modern statistics and machine learning. One pivotal class of methods for assessing conditional independence encompasses kernel-based approaches, known for assessing CI by detecting general conditional dependence without imposing strict assumptions on relationships or data distributions. As with any method utilizing kernels, selecting appropriate kernels is crucial for precise identification. However, it remains underexplored in kernel-based CI methods, where the kernels are often determined manually or heuristically. In this paper, we analyze and propose a kernel parameter selection approach for the kernel-based conditional independence test (KCI). The kernel parameters are selected based on the ratio of the statistic to the asymptotic variance, which approximates the test power for the given parameters at large sample sizes. The search procedure is grid-based, allowing for parallelization with manageable additional computation time. We theoretically demonstrate the consistency of the proposed criterion and conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data to show the effectiveness of our method.

Bisimulation metrics are powerful tools for measuring similarities between stochastic processes, and specifically Markov chains. Recent advances have uncovered that bisimulation metrics are, in fact, optimal-transport distances, which has enabled the development of fast algorithms for computing such metrics with provable accuracy and runtime guarantees. However, these recent methods, as well as all previously known methods, assume full knowledge of the transition dynamics. This is often an impractical assumption in most real-world scenarios, where typically only sample trajectories are available. In this work, we propose a stochastic optimization method that addresses this limitation and estimates bisimulation metrics based on sample access, without requiring explicit transition models. Our approach is derived from a new linear programming (LP) formulation of bisimulation metrics, which we solve using a stochastic primal-dual optimization method. We provide theoretical guarantees on the sample complexity of the algorithm and validate its effectiveness through a series of empirical evaluations.

Scaling language models unlocks impressive capabilities, but the accompanying computational and memory demands make both training and deployment expensive. Existing efficiency efforts typically target either parameter sharing or adaptive computation, leaving open the question of how to attain both simultaneously. We introduce Mixture-of-Recursions (MoR), a unified framework that combines the two axes of efficiency inside a single Recursive Transformer. MoR reuses a shared stack of layers across recursion steps to achieve parameter efficiency, while lightweight routers enable adaptive token-level thinking by dynamically assigning different recursion depths to individual tokens. This allows MoR to focus quadratic attention computation only among tokens still active at a given recursion depth, further improving memory access efficiency by selectively caching only their key-value pairs. Beyond these core mechanisms, we also propose a KV sharing variant that reuses KV pairs from the first recursion, specifically designed to further decrease memory footprint. Across model scales ranging from 135M to 1.7B parameters, MoR forms a new Pareto frontier: at equal training FLOPs and smaller model sizes, it significantly lowers validation perplexity and improves few-shot accuracy, while delivering higher throughput compared with vanilla and existing recursive baselines.

Integrating logical constraints into object detection models for autonomous driving (AD) is a promising way to enhance their compliance with rules and thereby increase the safety of the system. T-norms have been utilized to calculate the constrained loss, i.e., the violations of logical constraints as losses. While prior works have statically selected a few t-norms, we conduct an extensive experimental study to identify the most effective choices, as suboptimal t-norms can lead to undesired model behavior. To this end, we present MOD-ECL, a neurosymbolic framework that implements a wide range of t-norms and applies them in an adaptive manner. It includes an algorithm that selects well-performing t-norms during training and a scheduler that regulates the impact of the constrained loss. We evaluate its effectiveness on the ROAD-R and ROAD-Waymo-R datasets for object detection in AD, using attached common-sense constraints. Our results show that careful selection of parameters is crucial for effective constrained loss behavior. Moreover, our framework not only reduces constraint violations but also, in some cases, improves detection performance. Additionally, our methods offer fine-grained control over the trade-off between accuracy and constraint violation.

In this paper, we propose an optimally structured gradient coding scheme to mitigate the straggler problem in distributed learning. Conventional gradient coding methods often assume homogeneous straggler models or rely on excessive data replication, limiting performance in real-world heterogeneous systems. To address these limitations, we formulate an optimization problem minimizing residual error while ensuring unbiased gradient estimation by explicitly considering individual straggler probabilities. We derive closed-form solutions for optimal encoding and decoding coefficients via Lagrangian duality and convex optimization, and propose data allocation strategies that reduce both redundancy and computational load. We also analyze convergence behavior for $\lambda$-strongly convex and $\mu$-smooth loss functions. Numerical results show that our approach significantly reduces the impact of stragglers and accelerates convergence compared to existing methods.

Recent rehearsal-free continual learning (CL) methods guided by prompts achieve strong performance on vision tasks with non-stationary data but remain resource-intensive, hindering real-world deployment. We introduce resource-efficient prompting (REP), which improves the computational and memory efficiency of prompt-based rehearsal-free methods while minimizing accuracy trade-offs. Our approach employs swift prompt selection to refine input data using a carefully provisioned model and introduces adaptive token merging AToM and adaptive layer dropping ALD for efficient prompt updates. AToM and ALD selectively skip data and model layers while preserving task-specific features during the learning of new tasks. Extensive experiments on multiple image classification datasets demonstrate REP’s superior resource efficiency over state-of-the-art rehearsal-free CL methods.

Diffusion models are advancing autonomous driving by enabling realistic data synthesis, predictive end-to-end planning, and closed-loop simulation, with a primary focus on temporally consistent generation. However, large-scale 3D scene generation requiring spatial coherence remains underexplored. In this paper, we present X-Scene, a novel framework for large-scale driving scene generation that achieves geometric intricacy, appearance fidelity, and flexible controllability. Specifically, X-Scene supports multi-granular control, including low-level layout conditioning driven by user input or text for detailed scene composition, and high-level semantic guidance informed by user intent and LLM-enriched prompts for efficient customization. To enhance geometric and visual fidelity, we introduce a unified pipeline that sequentially generates 3D semantic occupancy and corresponding multi-view images and videos, ensuring alignment and temporal consistency across modalities. We further extend local regions into large-scale scenes via consistency-aware outpainting, which extrapolates occupancy and images from previously generated areas to maintain spatial and visual coherence. The resulting scenes are lifted into high-quality 3DGS representations, supporting diverse applications such as simulation and scene exploration. Extensive experiments demonstrate that X-Scene substantially advances controllability and fidelity in large-scale scene generation, empowering data generation and simulation for autonomous driving.

We introduce STSBench, a scenario-based framework to benchmark the holistic understanding of vision-language models (VLMs) for autonomous driving. The framework automatically mines predefined traffic scenarios from any dataset using ground-truth annotations, provides an intuitive user interface for efficient human verification, and generates multiple-choice questions for model evaluation. Applied to the nuScenes dataset, we present STSnu, the first benchmark that evaluates the spatio-temporal reasoning capabilities of VLMs based on comprehensive 3D perception. Existing benchmarks typically target off-the-shelf or fine-tuned VLMs for images or videos from a single viewpoint, focusing on semantic tasks such as object recognition, dense captioning, risk assessment, or scene understanding. In contrast, STSnu evaluates driving expert VLMs for end-to-end driving, operating on videos from multi-view cameras or LiDAR. It specifically assesses their ability to reason about both ego-vehicle actions and complex interactions among traffic participants, a crucial capability for autonomous vehicles. The benchmark features 43 diverse scenarios spanning multiple views and frames, resulting in 971 human-verified multiple-choice questions. A thorough evaluation uncovers critical shortcomings in existing models’ ability to reason about fundamental traffic dynamics in complex environments. These findings highlight the urgent need for architectural advancements that explicitly model spatio-temporal reasoning. By addressing a core gap in spatio-temporal evaluation, STSBench enables the development of more robust and explainable VLMs for autonomous driving.

Learning from self-sampled data and sparse environmental feedback remains a fundamental challenge in training self-evolving agents. Temporal credit assignment mitigates this issue by transforming sparse feedback into dense supervision signals. However, previous approaches typically depend on domain-specific value functions for credit assignment, which suffer from poor sample efficiency and limited generalization. In this work, we propose to leverage pre-trained knowledge from large language models (LLMs) to transform sparse rewards into dense training signals (i.e., the advantage function) through retrospective in-context learning (RICL). We further propose an online learning framework, RICOL, which iteratively refines the policy based on the credit assignment results from RICL. We empirically demonstrate that RICL can accurately estimate the advantage function with limited samples and effectively identify critical states for temporal credit assignment. Extended evaluation on the BabyAI benchmark shows that RICOL significantly improves sample efficiency compared to traditional online RL algorithms while achieving performance comparable to imitation learning from expert demonstartions. Our findings highlight the potential of leveraging LLMs for temporal credit assignment, paving the way for more sample-efficient and generalizable RL paradigms.

Training Transformer models on long sequences in a distributed setting poses significant challenges in terms of efficiency and scalability. Current methods are either constrained by the number of attention heads or excessive communication overheads. To address this problem, we propose StarTrail, a multi-dimensional concentric distributed training system for long sequences, fostering an efficient communication paradigm and providing additional tuning flexibility for communication arrangements. Specifically, StarTrail introduces an extra parallel dimension and divides the peer-to-peer communication into sub-rings to substantially reduce communication volume and avoid bandwidth bottlenecks. Through comprehensive experiments across diverse hardware environments and on both Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Computer Vision (CV) tasks, we demonstrate that our approach significantly surpasses state-of-the-art methods that support Long sequence lengths, achieving performance improvements of up to 77.12% on GPT-style models and up to 114.33% on DiT (Diffusion Transformer) models without affecting the computations results.

The relative similarity testing aims to determine which of the distributions, $P$ or $Q$, is closer to an anchor distribution $U$. Existing kernel-based approaches often test the relative similarity with a fixed kernel in a manually specified alternative hypothesis, e.g., $Q$ is closer to $U$ than $P$. Although kernel selection is known to be important to kernel-based testing methods, the manually specified hypothesis poses a significant challenge for kernel selection in relative similarity testing: Once the hypothesis is specified first, we can always find a kernel such that the hypothesis is rejected. This challenge makes relative similarity testing ill-defined when we want to select a good kernel after the hypothesis is specified. In this paper, we cope with this challenge via learning a proper hypothesis and a kernel simultaneously, instead of learning a kernel after manually specifying the hypothesis. We propose an anchor-based maximum discrepancy (AMD), which defines the relative similarity as the maximum discrepancy between the distances of $(U, P)$ and $(U, Q)$ in a space of deep kernels. Based on AMD, our testing incorporates two phases. In Phase I, we estimate the AMD over the deep kernel space and infer the potential hypothesis. In Phase II, we assess the statistical significance of the potential hypothesis, where we propose a unified testing framework to derive thresholds for tests over different possible hypotheses from Phase I. Lastly, we validate our method theoretically and demonstrate its effectiveness via extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. Codes are publicly available at: https://github.com/zhijianzhouml/AMD.

Motion simulation, prediction and planning are foundational tasks in autonomous driving, each essential for modeling and reasoning about dynamic traffic scenarios. While often addressed in isolation due to their differing objectives, such as generating diverse motion states or estimating optimal trajectories, these tasks inherently depend on shared capabilities: understanding multi-agent interactions, modeling motion behaviors, and reasoning over temporal and spatial dynamics. Despite this underlying commonality, existing approaches typically adopt specialized model designs, which hinders cross-task generalization and system scalability. More critically, this separation overlooks the potential mutual benefits among tasks. Motivated by these observations, we propose **UniMotion**, a unified motion framework that captures shared structures across motion tasks while accommodating their individual requirements. Built on a decoder-only Transformer architecture, UniMotion employs dedicated interaction modes and tailored training strategies to simultaneously support these motion tasks. This unified design not only enables joint optimization and representation sharing but also allows for targeted fine-tuning to specialize in individual tasks when needed. Extensive experiments on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that joint training leads to robust generalization and effective task integration. With further fine-tuning, UniMotion achieves state-of-the-art performance across a range of motion tasks, establishing it as a versatile and scalable solution for autonomous driving.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) of latent parameters in physical systems is often hindered by model misspecification--the mismatch between simulated and real-world observations caused by inherent modeling simplifications. RoPE, a recent SBI approach, addresses this challenge through a two-stage domain transfer process that combines semi-supervised calibration with optimal transport (OT)-based distribution alignment. However, RoPE operates in a fully transductive setting, requiring access to a batch of test samples at inference time, which limits scalability and generalization. We propose a fully inductive and amortized SBI framework that integrates calibration and distributional alignment into a single, end-to-end trainable model. Our method leverages mini-batch OT with a closed-form coupling to align real and simulated observations that correspond to the same latent parameters, using both paired calibration data and unpaired samples. A conditional normalizing flow is then trained to approximate the OT-induced posterior, enabling efficient inference without simulation access at test time. Across a range of synthetic and real-world benchmarks--including complex medical biomarker estimation--our approach matches or exceeds the performance of RoPE, while offering improved scalability and applicability in challenging, misspecified environments.

Gradient estimation is a central challenge in training parameterized quantum circuits ( PQCs) for hybrid quantum-classical optimization and learning problems. This difficulty arises from several factors, including the exponential dimensionality of the Hilbert spaces and the information loss in quantum measurements. Existing estimators, such as finite difference and the parameter shift rule, often fail to adequately address these challenges for certain classes of PQCs. In this work, we propose a novel gradient estimation framework that leverages the underlying Lie algebraic structure of PQCs, combined with the Hadamard test. By analyzing the differential of the matrix exponential in Lie algebras, we derive an expression for the gradient as a linear combination of expectation values obtained via Hadamard tests. The coefficients in this decomposition depend solely on the circuit's parameterization and can be computed efficiently. Also, these expectation values can be estimated using state-of-the-art shadow tomography techniques. Our approach enables efficient gradient estimation, requiring a number of measurement shots that scales logarithmically with the number of parameters, and with polynomial classical and quantum time. This is an exponential reduction in the measurement cost and a polynomial speed-up in time compared to existing works.

End-to-end autonomous driving systems, predominantly trained through imitation learning, have demonstrated considerable effectiveness in leveraging large-scale expert driving data. Despite their success in open-loop evaluations, these systems often exhibit significant performance degradation in closed-loop scenarios due to causal confusion. This confusion is fundamentally exacerbated by the overreliance of the imitation learning paradigm on expert trajectories, which often contain unattributable noise and interfere with the modeling of causal relationships between environmental contexts and appropriate driving actions. To address this fundamental limitation, we propose Perception-Guided Self-Supervision (PGS)—a simple yet effective training paradigm that leverages perception outputs as the primary supervisory signals, explicitly modeling causal relationships in decision-making. The proposed framework aligns both the inputs and outputs of the decision-making module with perception results—such as lane centerlines and the predicted motions of surrounding agents—by introducing positive and negative self-supervision for the ego trajectory. This alignment is specifically designed to mitigate causal confusion arising from the inherent noise in expert trajectories. Equipped with perception-driven supervision, our method—built on a standard end-to-end architecture—achieves a Driving Score of 78.08 and a mean success rate of 48.64\% on the challenging closed-loop Bench2Drive benchmark, significantly outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods, including those employing more complex network architectures and inference pipelines. These results underscore the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed PGS framework, and point to a promising direction for addressing causal confusion and enhancing real-world generalization in autonomous driving.