NeurIPS 2024 Papers

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision breakdown

4,562papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    721.6%
  • Spotlight
    3828.4%
  • Poster
    4,06489.1%
  • Other / unlabeled
    441.0%

Browse all papers

Accuracy is Not All You Need

Abhinav Dutta, Sanjeev Krishnan, Nipun Kwatra, Ramachandran Ramjee

Expand abstract

When Large Language Models (LLMs) are compressed using techniques such as quantization, the predominant way to demonstrate the validity of such techniques is by measuring the model's accuracy on various benchmarks. If the accuracies of the baseline model and the compressed model are close, it is assumed that there was negligible degradation in quality. However, even when the accuracy of baseline and compressed model are similar, we observe the phenomenon of flips, wherein answers change from correct to incorrect and vice versa in proportion. We conduct a detailed study of metrics across multiple compression techniques, models and datasets, demonstrating that the behavior of compressed models as visible to end-users is often significantly different from the baseline model, even when accuracy is similar. We further evaluate compressed models qualitatively and quantitatively using MT-Bench and show that compressed models exhibiting high flips are worse than baseline models in this free-form generative task. Thus, we argue that accuracy and perplexity are necessary but not sufficient for evaluating compressed models, since these metrics hide large underlying changes that have not been observed by previous work. Hence, compression techniques should also be evaluated using distance metrics. We propose two such distance metrics, KL-Divergence and flips, and show that they are well correlated.

Poster
Bias in Motion: Theoretical Insights into the Dynamics of Bias in SGD Training

Anchit Jain, Rozhin Nobahari, Aristide Baratin, Stefano Sarao Mannelli

Expand abstract

Machine learning systems often acquire biases by leveraging undesired features in the data, impacting accuracy variably across different sub-populations of the data. However, our current understanding of bias formation mostly focuses on the initial and final stages of learning, leaving a gap in knowledge regarding the transient dynamics. To address this gap, this paper explores the evolution of bias in a teacher-student setup that models different data sub-populations with a Gaussian-mixture model. We provide an analytical description of the stochastic gradient descent dynamics of a linear classifier in this setup, which we prove to be exact in high dimension. Notably, our analysis identifies different properties of the sub-populations that drive bias at different timescales and hence shows a shifting preference of our classifier during training. By applying our general solution to fairness and robustness, we delineate how and when heterogeneous data and spurious features can generate and amplify bias. We empirically validate our results in more complex scenarios by training deeper networks on synthetic and real data, i.e. using CIFAR10, MNIST, and CelebA datasets.

Poster
STaRK: Benchmarking LLM Retrieval on Textual and Relational Knowledge Bases

Shirley Wu, Shiyu Zhao, Michihiro Yasunaga, Kexin Huang, Kaidi Cao, Qian Huang, Vassilis N. Ioannidis, Karthik Subbian, James Zou, Jure Leskovec

Expand abstract

Answering real-world complex queries, such as complex product search, often requires accurate retrieval from semi-structured knowledge bases that involve blend of unstructured (e.g., textual descriptions of products) and structured (e.g., entity relations of products) information. However, many previous works studied textual and relational retrieval tasks as separate topics. To address the gap, we develop STARK, a large-scale Semi-structure retrieval benchmark on Textual and Relational Knowledge Bases. Our benchmark covers three domains: product search, academic paper search, and queries in precision medicine. We design a novel pipeline to synthesize realistic user queries that integrate diverse relational information and complex textual properties, together with their ground-truth answers (items). We conduct rigorous human evaluation to validate the quality of our synthesized queries. We further enhance the benchmark with high-quality human-generated queries to provide an authentic reference. STARK serves as a comprehensive testbed for evaluating the performance of retrieval systems driven by large language models (LLMs). Our experiments suggest that STARK presents significant challenges to the current retrieval and LLM systems, highlighting the need for more capable semi-structured retrieval systems.

Poster
DN-4DGS: Denoised Deformable Network with Temporal-Spatial Aggregation for Dynamic Scene Rendering

Jiahao Lu, Jiacheng Deng, Ruijie Zhu, Yanzhe Liang, Wenfei Yang, Xu Zhou, Tianzhu Zhang

Expand abstract

Dynamic scenes rendering is an intriguing yet challenging problem. Although current methods based on NeRF have achieved satisfactory performance, they still can not reach real-time levels. Recently, 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has garnered researchers' attention due to their outstanding rendering quality and real-time speed. Therefore, a new paradigm has been proposed: defining a canonical 3D gaussians and deforming it to individual frames in deformable fields. However, since the coordinates of canonical 3D gaussians are filled with noise, which can transfer noise into the deformable fields, and there is currently no method that adequately considers the aggregation of 4D information. Therefore, we propose Denoised Deformable Network with Temporal-Spatial Aggregation for Dynamic Scene Rendering (DN-4DGS). Specifically, a Noise Suppression Strategy is introduced to change the distribution of the coordinates of the canonical 3D gaussians and suppress noise. Additionally, a Decoupled Temporal-Spatial Aggregation Module is designed to aggregate information from adjacent points and frames. Extensive experiments on various real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art rendering quality under a real-time level. Code is available at https://github.com/peoplelu/DN-4DGS.

Poster
Learning Commonality, Divergence and Variety for Unsupervised Visible-Infrared Person Re-identification

Jiangming Shi, Xiangbo Yin, Yachao Zhang, Zhizhong Zhang, Yuan Xie, Yanyun Qu

Expand abstract

Unsupervised visible-infrared person re-identification (USVI-ReID) aims to match specified persons in infrared images to visible images without annotations, and vice versa. USVI-ReID is a challenging yet underexplored task. Most existing methods address the USVI-ReID through cluster-based contrastive learning, which simply employs the cluster center to represent an individual. However, the cluster center primarily focuses on commonality, overlooking divergence and variety. To address the problem, we propose a Progressive Contrastive Learning with Hard and Dynamic Prototypes for USVI-ReID. In brief, we generate the hard prototype by selecting the sample with the maximum distance from the cluster center. We reveal that the inclusion of the hard prototype in contrastive loss helps to emphasize divergence. Additionally, instead of rigidly aligning query images to a specific prototype, we generate the dynamic prototype by randomly picking samples within a cluster. The dynamic prototype is used to encourage variety. Finally, we introduce a progressive learning strategy to gradually shift the model's attention towards divergence and variety, avoiding cluster deterioration. Extensive experiments conducted on the publicly available SYSU-MM01 and RegDB datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Poster
SelectIT: Selective Instruction Tuning for LLMs via Uncertainty-Aware Self-Reflection

Liangxin Liu, Xuebo Liu, Derek F. Wong, Dongfang Li, Ziyi Wang, Baotian Hu, Min Zhang

Expand abstract

Instruction tuning (IT) is crucial to tailoring large language models (LLMs) towards human-centric interactions. Recent advancements have shown that the careful selection of a small, high-quality subset of IT data can significantly enhance the performance of LLMs. Despite this, common approaches often rely on additional models or data, which increases costs and limits widespread adoption. In this work, we propose a novel approach, termed $\textit{SelectIT}$, that capitalizes on the foundational capabilities of the LLM itself. Specifically, we exploit the intrinsic uncertainty present in LLMs to more effectively select high-quality IT data, without the need for extra resources. Furthermore, we introduce a curated IT dataset, the $\textit{Selective Alpaca}$, created by applying SelectIT to the Alpaca-GPT4 dataset. Empirical results demonstrate that IT using Selective Alpaca leads to substantial model ability enhancement. The robustness of SelectIT has also been corroborated in various foundation models and domain-specific tasks. Our findings suggest that longer and more computationally intensive IT data may serve as superior sources of IT, offering valuable insights for future research in this area. Data, code, and scripts are freely available at https://github.com/Blue-Raincoat/SelectIT.

Poster
Aligning Audio-Visual Joint Representations with an Agentic Workflow

Shentong Mo, Yibing Song

Expand abstract

Visual content and accompanied audio signals naturally formulate a joint representation to improve audio-visual (AV) related applications. While studies develop various AV representation learning frameworks, the importance of AV data alignment is usually undermined for achieving high-quality representation. We observe that an audio signal may contain background noise interference. Also, non-synchronization may appear between audio and video streams. These non-strict data alignment limits representation quality and downgrade application performance. In this paper, we propose to improve AV joint representations from a data-centric perspective by aligning audio signals to visual data. Our alignment is conducted in an agentic workflow controlled by an LLM-based assistant named AVAgent. For each input AV data pair, our AVAgent uses a multi-modal LLM to convert audio and visual data into language descriptions separately (i.e., tool use). Then, AVAgent reasons whether this paired data is aligned well and plans to edit the audio signal if needed (i.e., planning). The audio editing is executed by predefined actions that filter noise or augment data. Moreover, we use a VLM to evaluate how modified audio signals match the visual content and provide feedback to AVAgent (i.e., reflection). The tool use, planning, and reflection steps operate cyclically to become an agentic workflow where audio signals are gradually aligned to visual content. To this end, existing methods can directly leverage the aligned AV data via our agentic workflow to improve AV joint representations. The experimental results comprehensively demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of the proposed approach against previous baselines in diverse downstream tasks.

Poster
SSDiff: Spatial-spectral Integrated Diffusion Model for Remote Sensing Pansharpening

Yu Zhong, Xiao Wu, Liang-Jian Deng, Zihan Cao, Hong-Xia Dou

Expand abstract

Pansharpening is a significant image fusion technique that merges the spatial content and spectral characteristics of remote sensing images to generate high-resolution multispectral images. Recently, denoising diffusion probabilistic models have been gradually applied to visual tasks, enhancing controllable image generation through low-rank adaptation (LoRA). In this paper, we introduce a spatial-spectral integrated diffusion model for the remote sensing pansharpening task, called SSDiff, which considers the pansharpening process as the fusion process of spatial and spectral components from the perspective of subspace decomposition. Specifically, SSDiff utilizes spatial and spectral branches to learn spatial details and spectral features separately, then employs a designed alternating projection fusion module (APFM) to accomplish the fusion. Furthermore, we propose a frequency modulation inter-branch module (FMIM) to modulate the frequency distribution between branches. The two components of SSDiff can perform favorably against the APFM when utilizing a LoRA-like branch-wise alternative fine-tuning method. It refines SSDiff to capture component-discriminating features more sufficiently. Finally, extensive experiments on four commonly used datasets, i.e., WorldView-3, WorldView-2, GaoFen-2, and QuickBird, demonstrate the superiority of SSDiff both visually and quantitatively. The code is available at https://github.com/Z-ypnos/SSdiff_main.

Poster
Generate Universal Adversarial Perturbations for Few-Shot Learning

Yiman Hu, Yixiong Zou, Ruixuan Li, Yuhua Li

Expand abstract

Deep networks are known to be vulnerable to adversarial examples which are deliberately designed to mislead the trained model by introducing imperceptible perturbations to input samples. Compared to traditional perturbations crafted specifically for each data point, Universal Adversarial Perturbations (UAPs) are input-agnostic and shown to be more practical in the real world. However, UAPs are typically generated in a close-set scenario that shares the same classification task during the training and testing phases. This paper demonstrates the ineffectiveness of traditional UAPs in open-set scenarios like Few-Shot Learning (FSL). Through analysis, we identify two primary challenges that hinder the attacking process: the task shift and the semantic shift. To enhance the transferability of UAPs in FSL, we propose a unifying attacking framework addressing these two shifts. The task shift is addressed by aligning proxy tasks to the downstream tasks, while the semantic shift is handled by leveraging the generalizability of pre-trained encoders.The proposed Few-Shot Attacking FrameWork, denoted as FSAFW, can effectively generate UAPs across various FSL training paradigms and different downstream tasks. Our approach not only sets a new standard for state-of-the-art works but also significantly enhances attack performance, exceeding the baseline method by over 16\%.

Poster
FUSU: A Multi-temporal-source Land Use Change Segmentation Dataset for Fine-grained Urban Semantic Understanding

Shuai Yuan, Guancong Lin, Lixian Zhang, Runmin Dong, Jinxiao Zhang, Shuang Chen, Juepeng Zheng, Jie Wang, Haohuan Fu

Expand abstract

Fine urban change segmentation using multi-temporal remote sensing images is essential for understanding human-environment interactions in urban areas. Although there have been advances in high-quality land cover datasets that reveal the physical features of urban landscapes, the lack of fine-grained land use datasets hinders a deeper understanding of how human activities are distributed across landscapes and the impact of these activities on the environment, thus constraining proper technique development. To address this, we introduce FUSU, the first fine-grained land use change segmentation dataset for Fine-grained Urban Semantic Understanding. FUSU features the most detailed land use classification system to date, with 17 classes and 30 billion pixels of annotations. It includes bi-temporal high-resolution satellite images with 0.2-0.5 m ground sample distance and monthly optical and radar satellite time series, covering 847 km^2 across five urban areas in the southern and northern of China with different geographical features. The fine-grained land use pixel-wise annotations and high spatial-temporal resolution data provide a robust foundation for developing proper deep learning models to provide contextual insights on human activities and urbanization. To fully leverage FUSU, we propose a unified time-series architecture for both change detection and segmentation. We benchmark FUSU on various methods for several tasks. Dataset and code are available at: https://github.com/yuanshuai0914/FUSU.

Poster
DeeR-VLA: Dynamic Inference of Multimodal Large Language Models for Efficient Robot Execution

Yang Yue, Yulin Wang, Bingyi Kang, Yizeng Han, Shenzhi Wang, Shiji Song, Jiashi FENG, Gao Huang

Expand abstract

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable comprehension and reasoning capabilities with complex language and visual data. These advances have spurred the vision of establishing a generalist robotic MLLM proficient in understanding complex human instructions and accomplishing various embodied tasks, whose feasibility has been recently verified~\cite{rt-2,rt-x}. However, developing MLLMs for real-world robots is challenging due to the typically limited computation and memory capacities available on robotic platforms. In contrast, the inference of MLLMs usually incorporates storing billions of parameters and performing tremendous computation, imposing significant hardware demands. In our paper, we seek to address this challenge by leveraging an intriguing observation: relatively easier situations make up the bulk of the procedure of controlling robots to fulfill diverse tasks, and they generally require far smaller models to obtain the correct robotic actions. Motivated by this observation, we propose a \emph{Dynamic Early-Exit for Robotic MLLM} (DeeR) framework that automatically adjusts the size of the activated MLLM based on each situation at hand. The approach leverages a multi-exit architecture in MLLMs, which allows the model to cease processing once a proper size of the model has been activated for a specific situation, thus avoiding further redundant computation. Additionally, we develop novel algorithms that establish early-termination criteria for DeeR, conditioned on predefined demands such as average computational cost (\emph{i.e.}, power consumption), as well as peak computational consumption (\emph{i.e.}, latency) and GPU memory usage. These enhancements ensure that DeeR operates efficiently under varying resource constraints while maintaining competitive performance. Moreover, we design a tailored training method for integrating temporal information on top of such multi-exit architectures to predict actions reasonably. On the CALVIN robot manipulation benchmark, DeeR demonstrates significant reductions in computational costs by 5.2-6.5x and GPU memory by 2x without compromising performance. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/yueyang130/DeeR-VLA.

Poster
Understanding the Expressivity and Trainability of Fourier Neural Operator: A Mean-Field Perspective

Takeshi Koshizuka, Masahiro Fujisawa, Yusuke Tanaka, Issei Sato

Expand abstract

In this paper, we explores the expressivity and trainability of the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO). We establish a mean-field theory for the FNO, analyzing the behavior of the random FNO from an \emph{edge of chaos} perspective. Our investigation into the expressivity of a random FNO involves examining the ordered-chaos phase transition of the network based on the weight distribution. This phase transition demonstrates characteristics unique to the FNO, induced by mode truncation, while also showcasing similarities to those of densely connected networks. Furthermore, we identify a connection between expressivity and trainability: the ordered and chaotic phases correspond to regions of vanishing and exploding gradients, respectively. This finding provides a practical prerequisite for the stable training of the FNO. Our experimental results corroborate our theoretical findings.

Poster
Text to Blind Motion

Hee Jae Kim, Kathakoli Sengupta, Masaki Kuribayashi, Hernisa Kacorri, Eshed Ohn-Bar

Expand abstract

People who are blind perceive the world differently than those who are sighted, which can result in distinct motion characteristics. For instance, when crossing at an intersection, blind individuals may have different patterns of movement, such as veering more from a straight path or using touch-based exploration around curbs and obstacles. These behaviors may appear less predictable to motion models embedded in technologies such as autonomous vehicles. Yet, the ability of 3D motion models to capture such behavior has not been previously studied, as existing datasets for 3D human motion currently lack diversity and are biased toward people who are sighted. In this work, we introduce BlindWays, the first multimodal motion benchmark for pedestrians who are blind. We collect 3D motion data using wearable sensors with 11 blind participants navigating eight different routes in a real-world urban setting. Additionally, we provide rich textual descriptions that capture the distinctive movement characteristics of blind pedestrians and their interactions with both the navigation aid (e.g., a white cane or a guide dog) and the environment. We benchmark state-of-the-art 3D human prediction models, finding poor performance with off-the-shelf and pre-training-based methods for our novel task. To contribute toward safer and more reliable systems that can seamlessly reason over diverse human movements in their environments, our text-and-motion benchmark is available at https://blindways.github.io/.

Poster
Upping the Game: How 2D U-Net Skip Connections Flip 3D Segmentation

Xingru Huang, Yihao Guo, Jian Huang, Tianyun Zhang, HE HONG, Shaowei Jiang, Yaoqi Sun

Expand abstract

In the present study, we introduce an innovative structure for 3D medical image segmentation that effectively integrates 2D U-Net-derived skip connections into the architecture of 3D convolutional neural networks (3D CNNs). Conventional 3D segmentation techniques predominantly depend on isotropic 3D convolutions for the extraction of volumetric features, which frequently engenders inefficiencies due to the varying information density across the three orthogonal axes in medical imaging modalities such as computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). This disparity leads to a decline in axial-slice plane feature extraction efficiency, with slice plane features being comparatively underutilized relative to features in the time-axial. To address this issue, we introduce the U-shaped Connection (uC), utilizing simplified 2D U-Net in place of standard skip connections to augment the extraction of the axial-slice plane features while concurrently preserving the volumetric context afforded by 3D convolutions. Based on uC, we further present uC 3DU-Net, an enhanced 3D U-Net backbone that integrates the uC approach to facilitate optimal axial-slice plane feature utilization. Through rigorous experimental validation on five publicly accessible datasets—FLARE2021, OIMHS, FeTA2021, AbdomenCT-1K, and BTCV, the proposed method surpasses contemporary state-of-the-art models. Notably, this performance is achieved while reducing the number of parameters and computational complexity. This investigation underscores the efficacy of incorporating 2D convolutions within the framework of 3D CNNs to overcome the intrinsic limitations of volumetric segmentation, thereby potentially expanding the frontiers of medical image analysis. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/IMOP-lab/U-Shaped-Connection.

Poster
Reference Trustable Decoding: A Training-Free Augmentation Paradigm for Large Language Models

Shi Luohe, Yao Yao, Zuchao Li, Lefei Zhang, Hai Zhao

Expand abstract

Large language models (LLMs) have rapidly advanced and demonstrated impressive capabilities. In-Context Learning (ICL) and Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) are currently two mainstream methods for augmenting LLMs to downstream tasks. ICL typically constructs a few-shot learning scenario, either manually or by setting up a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) system, helping models quickly grasp domain knowledge or question-answering patterns without changing model parameters. However, this approach involves trade-offs, such as slower inference speed and increased space occupancy. PEFT assists the model in adapting to tasks through minimal parameter modifications, but the training process still demands high hardware requirements, even with a small number of parameters involved. To address these challenges, we propose Reference Trustable Decoding (RTD), a paradigm that allows models to quickly adapt to new tasks without fine-tuning, maintaining low inference costs. RTD constructs a reference datastore from the provided training examples and optimizes the LLM's final vocabulary distribution by flexibly selecting suitable references based on the input, resulting in more trustable responses and enabling the model to adapt to downstream tasks at a low cost. Experimental evaluations on various LLMs using different benchmarks demonstrate that RTD establishes a new paradigm for augmenting models to downstream tasks. Furthermore, our method exhibits strong orthogonality with traditional methods, allowing for concurrent usage. Our code can be found at https://github.com/ShiLuohe/ReferenceTrustableDecoding.

Poster
WorldCoder, a Model-Based LLM Agent: Building World Models by Writing Code and Interacting with the Environment

Hao Tang, Darren Yan Key, Kevin Ellis

Expand abstract

We give a model-based agent that builds a Python program representing its knowledge of the world based on its interactions with the environment. The world model tries to explain its interactions, while also being optimistic about what reward it can achieve. We define this optimism as a logical constraint between a program and a planner. We study our agent on gridworlds, and on task planning, finding our approach is more sample-efficient compared to deep RL, more compute-efficient compared to ReAct-style agents, and that it can transfer its knowledge across environments by editing its code.

Poster
Towards an Information Theoretic Framework of Context-Based Offline Meta-Reinforcement Learning

Lanqing Li, Hai Zhang, Xinyu Zhang, Shatong Zhu, Yang Yu, Junqiao Zhao, Pheng-Ann Heng

Expand abstract

As a marriage between offline RL and meta-RL, the advent of offline meta-reinforcement learning (OMRL) has shown great promise in enabling RL agents to multi-task and quickly adapt while acquiring knowledge safely. Among which, context-based OMRL (COMRL) as a popular paradigm, aims to learn a universal policy conditioned on effective task representations. In this work, by examining several key milestones in the field of COMRL, we propose to integrate these seemingly independent methodologies into a unified framework. Most importantly, we show that the pre-existing COMRL algorithms are essentially optimizing the same mutual information objective between the task variable $M$ and its latent representation $Z$ by implementing various approximate bounds. Such theoretical insight offers ample design freedom for novel algorithms. As demonstrations, we propose a supervised and a self-supervised implementation of $I(Z; M)$, and empirically show that the corresponding optimization algorithms exhibit remarkable generalization across a broad spectrum of RL benchmarks, context shift scenarios, data qualities and deep learning architectures. This work lays the information theoretic foundation for COMRL methods, leading to a better understanding of task representation learning in the context of reinforcement learning. Given its generality, we envision our framework as a promising offline pre-training paradigm of foundation models for decision making.

Spotlight
Local Linearity: the Key for No-regret Reinforcement Learning in Continuous MDPs

Davide Maran, Alberto Maria Metelli, Matteo Papini, Marcello Restelli

Expand abstract

Achieving the no-regret property for Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems in continuous state and action-space environments is one of the major open problems in the field. Existing solutions either work under very specific assumptions or achieve bounds that are vacuous in some regimes. Furthermore, many structural assumptions are known to suffer from a provably unavoidable exponential dependence on the time horizon $H$ in the regret, which makes any possible solution unfeasible in practice. In this paper, we identify _local linearity_ as the feature that makes Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) both _learnable_ (sublinear regret) and _feasible_ (regret that is polynomial in $H$). We define a novel MDP representation class, namely _Locally Linearizable MDPs_, generalizing other representation classes like Linear MDPs and MDPS with low inherent Belmman error. Then, i) we introduce **Cinderella**, a no-regret algorithm for this general representation class, and ii) we show that all known learnable and feasible MDP families are representable in this class. We first show that all known feasible MDPs belong to a family that we call _Mildly Smooth MDPs_. Then, we show how any mildly smooth MDP can be represented as a Locally Linearizable MDP by an appropriate choice of representation. This way, **Cinderella** is shown to achieve state-of-the-art regret bounds for all previously known (and some new) continuous MDPs for which RL is learnable and feasible.

Poster
Fast TRAC: A Parameter-Free Optimizer for Lifelong Reinforcement Learning

Aneesh Muppidi, Zhiyu Zhang, Heng Yang

Expand abstract

A key challenge in lifelong reinforcement learning (RL) is the loss of plasticity, where previous learning progress hinders an agent's adaptation to new tasks. While regularization and resetting can help, they require precise hyperparameter selection at the outset and environment-dependent adjustments. Building on the principled theory of online convex optimization, we present a parameter-free optimizer for lifelong RL, called TRAC, which requires no tuning or prior knowledge about the distribution shifts. Extensive experiments on Procgen, Atari, and Gym Control environments show that TRAC works surprisingly well—mitigating loss of plasticity and rapidly adapting to challenging distribution shifts—despite the underlying optimization problem being nonconvex and nonstationary.

Poster
The surprising efficiency of temporal difference learning for rare event prediction

Xiaoou Cheng, Jonathan Weare

Expand abstract

We quantify the efficiency of temporal difference (TD) learning over the direct, or Monte Carlo (MC), estimator for policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, with an emphasis on estimation of quantities related to rare events. Policy evaluation is complicated in the rare event setting by the long timescale of the event and by the need for \emph{relative accuracy} in estimates of very small values. Specifically, we focus on least-squares TD (LSTD) prediction for finite state Markov chains, and show that LSTD can achieve relative accuracy far more efficiently than MC. We prove a central limit theorem for the LSTD estimator and upper bound the \emph{relative asymptotic variance} by simple quantities characterizing the connectivity of states relative to the transition probabilities between them. Using this bound, we show that, even when both the timescale of the rare event and the relative accuracy of the MC estimator are exponentially large in the number of states, LSTD maintains a fixed level of relative accuracy with a total number of observed transitions of the Markov chain that is only \emph{polynomially} large in the number of states.

Poster