ICML 2026 Papers

International Conference on Machine Learning

Decision breakdown

6,341papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Spotlight
    5368.5%
  • Poster
    5,80591.5%

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Density-Guided Robust Counterfactual Explanations on Tabular Data under Model Multiplicity

Jun Tan, Qing Guo, Zicheng Xu, Jinglin Li, Qi Fang, Ning Gui

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Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are essential for actionable recourse, yet their reliability is often compromised in low-density regions, where classifiers exhibit high variance. Unlike existing methods that rely on expensive ensemble intersections to define stability, we propose DensityFlow, a generative framework that constructs robust CEs by adhering to the high-confidence data manifold. Specifically, we model the counterfactual generation as continuous-time dynamics parameterized by Neural ODE, guided by a differentiable density score to actively avoid uncertain, low-density areas. This density score is learned via Noise Contrastive Estimation, effectively leveraging a $(K{+}1)$-way discriminator to estimate density ratios. For black-box settings, we introduce a local proxy distillation mechanism that aligns a lightweight surrogate with the target model strictly within the trajectory of CE generation, enabling efficient gradient-based optimization with minimal queries. Experiments demonstrate that \textit{DensityFlow} achieves superior validity under model multiplicity while significantly reducing query costs compared to ensemble-based baselines. Our implementation is available at \url{https://github.com/G-AILab/DensityFlow}.

Poster
Counterfactual Bootstrap for Robust Meta-Reinforcement Learning

Ai Bo, Junzhe Zhang, M. Cenk Gursoy

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Meta-Reinforcement Learning (Meta-RL) focuses on training policies using data collected from a variety of diverse environments. This approach enables the policy to adapt to new settings with only a few training steps. While many Meta-RL methods have demonstrated success, they often rely on the assumption that unobserved confounders can be excluded a priori. This paper investigates robust Meta-RL in sequential decision-making, given confounded observational data collected across multiple heterogeneous environments. We introduce a novel augmentation procedure for standard Meta-RL algorithms (e.g., MAML), which employs partial identification methods to generate posterior counterfactual trajectories from candidate environments that align with the confounded observations. These counterfactual trajectories are then used to find a policy initialization that produces strong generalization performance in the target domain. Theoretical analysis reveals that our causal Meta-RL approach is guaranteed to yield a solution that minimizes generalization loss in future inference tasks.

Poster
Algorithmic Recourse of In-Context Learning for Tabular Data

Wenshuo Dong, Jiaming Zhang, Shaopeng Fu, Hongbin Lin, Di Wang, Lijie Hu

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As predictive models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings such as credit approval, there is a growing need for post-hoc methods that provide recourse to affected individuals. Many such models operate on tabular data, where features correspond to real-world attributes. Recently, in-context learning (ICL) has enabled large language models to perform tabular prediction by conditioning on labeled examples at inference time, without explicit training. However, algorithmic recourse for tabular decision-making under ICL remains largely unexplored. In this work, we present the first study of algorithmic recourse for tabular data under ICL. We carry out a theoretical analysis, showing that recourse remains well-defined and bounded, and we characterize how recourse converges toward classical solutions as the context size increases. In practice, we propose a novel zeroth-order recourse framework, Adaptive Subspace Recourse for In-Context Learning (ASR-ICL), that efficiently generates actionable and sparse recourse for black-box ICL models. The proposed framework naturally extends to multi-class tabular tasks. Experiments across multiple real-world datasets and models demonstrate that ASR-ICL achieves recourse quality comparable to existing methods with fewer queries and empirically confirm the predicted convergence behavior, supporting our theoretical analysis.

Poster
Reward-Preserving Counterfactual State Editing for Offline Reinforcement Learning

Siyu Wang, Xiaocong Chen, Mingming Gong, Yong Li, Quan Z. Sheng, Lina Yao

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Transformer sequence models such as Decision Transformer can learn strong offline policies from logged trajectories, but they often suffer from causal confusion: reliance on spurious correlations that predict reward in the data but do not reflect the true causal mechanisms of the environment. We propose CSET (Counterfactual State Editing Transformer), which improves robustness in strictly offline reinforcement learning without learning environment transition dynamics. On the data side, CSET fits a causal reward model as a conditional variational autoencoder and uses a counterfactual state generator to propose minimally edited observations whose predicted reward matches the factual reward, under a normalized move-band constraint and an acceptance gate that enforce plausibility and reward consistency; augmentation replaces only the observation token to avoid synthetic successor transitions. On the model side, CSET uses a causally structured hybrid transformer: modality-specific convolutional encoders process return-to-go, state, and action streams, and a final attention block is softly supervised so action prediction focuses on its direct causal parents. Experiments on D4RL locomotion, AntMaze, and offline recommendation benchmarks show consistent gains within the DT family, and CSET remains substantially more robust than strong value-based and DT baselines under injected spurious distractors.

Poster