ICML 2024 Papers

Decision support systems for classification tasks are predominantly designed to predict the value of the ground truth labels. However, since their predictions are not perfect, these systems also need to make human experts understand when and how to use these predictions to update their own predictions. Unfortunately, this has been proven challenging. In this context, it has been recently argued that an alternative type of decision support systems may circumvent this challenge. Rather than providing a single label prediction, these systems provide a set of label prediction values constructed using a conformal predictor, namely a prediction set, and forcefully ask experts to predict a label value from the prediction set. However, the design and evaluation of these systems have so far relied on stylized expert models, questioning their promise. In this paper, we revisit the design of this type of systems from the perspective of online learning and develop a methodology that does not require, nor assumes, an expert model. Our methodology leverages the nested structure of the prediction sets provided by any conformal predictor and a natural counterfactual monotonicity assumption to achieve an exponential improvement in regret in comparison to vanilla bandit algorithms. We conduct a large-scale human subject study ($n = 2{,}751$) to compare our methodology to several competitive baselines. The results show that, for decision support systems based on prediction sets, limiting experts’ level of agency leads to greater performance than allowing experts to always exercise their own agency.

Attribution methods shed light on the explainability of data-driven approaches such as deep learning models by uncovering the most influential features in a to-be-explained decision. While determining feature attributions via gradients delivers promising results, the internal access required for acquiring gradients can be impractical under safety concerns, thus limiting the applicability of gradient-based approaches. In response to such limited flexibility, this paper presents GEEX (gradient-estimation-based explanation), a method that produces gradient-like explanations through only query-level access. The proposed approach holds a set of fundamental properties for attribution methods, which are mathematically rigorously proved, ensuring the quality of its explanations. In addition to the theoretical analysis, with a focus on image data, the experimental results empirically demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over state-of-the-art black-box methods and its competitive performance compared to methods with full access.

In guaranteeing the absence of adversarial examples in an instance's neighbourhood, certification mechanisms play an important role in demonstrating neural net robustness. In this paper, we ask if these certifications can compromise the very models they help to protect? Our new *Certification Aware Attack* exploits certifications to produce computationally efficient norm-minimising adversarial examples $74$% more often than comparable attacks, while reducing the median perturbation norm by more than $10$%. While these attacks can be used to assess the tightness of certification bounds, they also highlight that releasing certifications can paradoxically reduce security.

Counterfactual image editing is a challenging task within generative AI. The current literature on the topic focuses primarily on changing individual features while being silent about the causal relationships between features, which are present in the real world. In this paper, we first formalize this task through causal language, modeling the causal relationships between latent generative factors and images through a special type of causal model called *augmented structural causal models (ASCMs)*. Second, we show two fundamental impossibility results: (1) counterfactual editing is impossible from i.i.d. image samples and their corresponding labels alone; (2) also, even when the causal relationships between latent generative factors and images are available, no guarantees regarding the output of the generative model can be provided. Third, we propose a relaxation over this hard problem aiming to approximate the non-identifiable target counterfactual distributions while still preserving features the users care about and that are causally consistent with the true generative model, which we call **ctf-consistent estimators**. Finally, we develop an efficient algorithm to generate counterfactual image samples leveraging neural causal models.

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at reducing covariate disparities between different treatment groups serves as a universal solution. However, when it comes to the time series data, the effectiveness of balancing strategies remains an open question, with a thorough analysis of the robustness and applicability of balancing strategies still lacking. This paper revisits counterfactual estimation in the temporal setting and provides a brief overview of recent advancements in balancing strategies. More importantly, we conduct a critical empirical examination for the effectiveness of the balancing strategies within the realm of temporal counterfactual estimation in various settings on multiple datasets. Our findings could be of significant interest to researchers and practitioners and call for a reexamination of the balancing strategy in time series settings.

We introduce **T-CREx**, a novel model-agnostic method for local and global counterfactual explanation (CE), which summarises recourse options for both individuals and groups in the form of generalised rules. It leverages tree-based surrogate models to learn the counterfactual rules, alongside *metarules* denoting their regimes of optimality, providing both a global analysis of model behaviour and diverse recourse options for users. Experiments indicate that **T-CREx** achieves superior aggregate performance over existing rule-based baselines on a range of CE desiderata, while being orders of magnitude faster to run.

Large Language Models' success in text generation has also made them better at code generation and coding tasks. While a lot of work has demonstrated their remarkable performance on tasks such as code completion and editing, it is still unclear as to why. We help bridge this gap by exploring to what degree auto-regressive models understand the logical constructs of the underlying programs. We propose Counterfactual Analysis for Programming Concept Predicates (CACP) as a counterfactual testing framework to evaluate whether Large Code Models understand programming concepts. With only black-box access to the model, we use CACP to evaluate ten popular Large Code Models for four different programming concepts. Our findings suggest that current models lack understanding of concepts such as data flow and control flow.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained to imitate humans to explain human decisions. However, do LLMs explain themselves? Can they help humans build mental models of how LLMs process different inputs? To answer these questions, we propose to evaluate $\textbf{counterfactual simulatability}$ of natural language explanations: whether an explanation can enable humans to precisely infer the model's outputs on diverse counterfactuals of the explained input. For example, if a model answers ''$\textit{yes}$'' to the input question ''$\textit{Can eagles fly?}$'' with the explanation ''$\textit{all birds can fly}$'', then humans would infer from the explanation that it would also answer ''$\textit{yes}$'' to the counterfactual input ''$\textit{Can penguins fly?}$''. If the explanation is precise, then the model's answer should match humans' expectations. We implemented two metrics based on counterfactual simulatability: precision and generality. We generated diverse counterfactuals automatically using LLMs. We then used these metrics to evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) on two tasks: multi-hop factual reasoning and reward modeling. We found that LLM's explanations have low precision and that precision does not correlate with plausibility. Therefore, naively optimizing human approvals (e.g., RLHF) may be insufficient.

Efficiently and effectively estimating counterfactuals over time is crucial for optimizing treatment strategies. We present the Adversarial Counterfactual Temporal Inference Network (ACTIN), a novel framework with dual modules to enhance counterfactual estimation. The balancing module employs a distribution-based adversarial method to learn balanced representations, extending beyond the limitations of current classification-based methods to mitigate confounding bias across various treatment types. The integrating module adopts a novel Temporal Integration Predicting (TIP) strategy, which has a wider receptive field of treatments and balanced representations from the beginning to the current time for a more profound level of analysis. TIP goes beyond the established Direct Predicting (DP) strategy, which only relies on current treatments and representations, by empowering the integrating module to effectively capture long-range dependencies and temporal treatment interactions. ACTIN exceeds the confines of specific base models, and when implemented with simple base models, consistently delivers state-of-the-art performance and efficiency across both synthetic and real-world datasets.