ICML 2024 Papers

Despite their simplicity, linear models perform well at time series forecasting, even when pitted against deeper and more expensive models. A number of variations to the linear model have been proposed, often including some form of feature normalisation that improves model generalisation. In this paper we analyse the sets of functions expressible using these linear model architectures. In so doing we show that several popular variants of linear models for time series forecasting are equivalent and functionally indistinguishable from standard, unconstrained linear regression. We characterise the model classes for each linear variant. We demonstrate that each model can be reinterpreted as unconstrained linear regression over a suitably augmented feature set, and therefore admit closed-form solutions when using a mean-squared loss function. We provide experimental evidence that the models under inspection learn nearly identical solutions, and finally demonstrate that the simpler closed form solutions are superior forecasters across 72% dataset-horizon settings.

We consider the task of learning individual-specific intensities of counting processes from a set of static variables and irregularly sampled time series. We introduce a novel modelization approach in which the intensity is the solution to a controlled differential equation. We first design a neural estimator by building on neural controlled differential equations. In a second time, we show that our model can be linearized in the signature space under sufficient regularity conditions, yielding a signature-based estimator which we call CoxSig. We provide theoretical learning guarantees for both estimators, before showcasing the performance of our models on a vast array of simulated and real-world datasets from finance, predictive maintenance and food supply chain management.

Time series pre-training has recently garnered wide attention for its potential to reduce labeling expenses and benefit various downstream tasks. Prior methods are mainly based on pre-training techniques well-acknowledged in vision or language, such as masked modeling and contrastive learning. However, randomly masking time series or calculating series-wise similarity will distort or neglect inherent temporal correlations crucial in time series data. To emphasize temporal correlation modeling, this paper proposes TimeSiam as a simple but effective self-supervised pre-training framework for Time series based on Siamese networks. Concretely, TimeSiam pre-trains Siamese encoders to capture intrinsic temporal correlations between randomly sampled past and current subseries. With a simple data augmentation method (e.g. masking), TimeSiam can benefit from diverse augmented subseries and learn internal time-dependent representations through a past-to-current reconstruction. Moreover, learnable lineage embeddings are also introduced to distinguish temporal distance between sampled series and further foster the learning of diverse temporal correlations. TimeSiam consistently outperforms extensive advanced pre-training baselines, demonstrating superior forecasting and classification capabilities across 13 standard benchmarks in both intra- and cross-domain scenarios.

This paper leverages the framework of algorithms-with-predictions to design data structures for two fundamental dynamic graph problems: incremental topological ordering and cycle detection. In these problems, the input is a directed graph on $n$ nodes, and the $m$ edges arrive one by one. The data structure must maintain a topological ordering of the vertices at all times and detect if the newly inserted edge creates a cycle. The theoretically best worst-case algorithms for these problems have high update cost (polynomial in $n$ and $m$). In practice, greedy heuristics (that recompute the solution from scratch each time) perform well but can have high update cost in the worst case. In this paper, we bridge this gap by leveraging predictions to design a learned new data structure for the problems. Our data structure guarantees consistency, robustness, and smoothness with respect to predictions---that is, it has the best possible running time under perfect predictions, never performs worse than the best-known worst-case methods, and its running time degrades smoothly with the prediction error. Moreover, we demonstrate empirically that predictions, learned from a very small training dataset, are sufficient to provide significant speed-ups on real datasets.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are instrumental for modeling dynamical systems in science and engineering. The advent of neural networks has initiated a significant shift in tackling these complexities though challenges in accuracy persist, especially for initial value problems. In this paper, we introduce the *Time-Evolving Natural Gradient (TENG)*, generalizing time-dependent variational principles and optimization-based time integration, leveraging natural gradient optimization to obtain high accuracy in neural-network-based PDE solutions. Our comprehensive development includes algorithms like TENG-Euler and its high-order variants, such as TENG-Heun, tailored for enhanced precision and efficiency. TENG's effectiveness is further validated through its performance, surpassing current leading methods and achieving *machine precision* in step-by-step optimizations across a spectrum of PDEs, including the heat equation, Allen-Cahn equation, and Burgers' equation.

Given a set of synchronous time series, each associated with a sensor-point in space and characterized by inter-series relationships, the problem of spatiotemporal forecasting consists of predicting future observations for each point. Spatiotemporal graph neural networks achieve striking results by representing the relationships across time series as a graph. Nonetheless, most existing methods rely on the often unrealistic assumption that inputs are always available and fail to capture hidden spatiotemporal dynamics when part of the data is missing. In this work, we tackle this problem through hierarchical spatiotemporal downsampling. The input time series are progressively coarsened over time and space, obtaining a pool of representations that capture heterogeneous temporal and spatial dynamics. Conditioned on observations and missing data patterns, such representations are combined by an interpretable attention mechanism to generate the forecasts. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world benchmarks under different missing data distributions, particularly in the presence of contiguous blocks of missing values.

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building prediction intervals for univariate responses. In this work, we develop a sequential CP method called $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ that builds prediction $\textit{regions}$ for a multivariate response, especially in the context of multivariate time series, which are not exchangeable. Theoretically, we estimate $\textit{finite-sample}$ high-probability bounds on the conditional coverage gap. Empirically, we demonstrate that $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ maintains valid coverage on a wide range of multivariate time series while producing smaller prediction regions than CP and non-CP baselines.

We establish the first finite-time logarithmic regret bounds for the self-tuning regulation problem. We introduce a modified version of the certainty equivalence algorithm, which we call PIECE, that clips inputs in addition to utilizing probing inputs for exploration. We show that it has a $C \log T$ upper bound on the regret after $T$ time-steps for bounded noise, and $C\log^3 T$ in the case of sub-Gaussian noise, unlike the LQ problem where logarithmic regret is shown to be not possible. The PIECE algorithm is also designed to address the critical challenge of poor initial transient performance of reinforcement learning algorithms for linear systems. Comparative simulation results illustrate the improved performance of PIECE.

Explaining deep learning models operating on time series data is crucial in various applications of interest which require interpretable and transparent insights from time series signals. In this work, we investigate this problem from an information theoretic perspective and show that most existing measures of explainability may suffer from trivial solutions and distributional shift issues. To address these issues, we introduce a simple yet practical objective function for time series explainable learning. The design of the objective function builds upon the principle of information bottleneck (IB), and modifies the IB objective function to avoid trivial solutions and distributional shift issues. We further present TimeX++, a novel explanation framework that leverages a parametric network to produce explanation-embedded instances that are both in-distributed and label-preserving. We evaluate TimeX++ on both synthetic and real-world datasets comparing its performance against leading baselines, and validate its practical efficacy through case studies in a real-world environmental application. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations show that TimeX++ outperforms baselines across all datasets, demonstrating a substantial improvement in explanation quality for time series data. The source code is available at https://github.com/zichuan-liu/TimeXplusplus.

Transformer models are increasingly used for solving Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Several adaptations have been proposed, all of which suffer from the typical problems of Transformers, such as quadratic memory and time complexity. Furthermore, all prevalent architectures for PDE solving lack at least one of several desirable properties of an ideal surrogate model, such as (i) generalization to PDE parameters not seen during training, (ii) spatial and temporal zero-shot super-resolution, (iii) continuous temporal extrapolation, (iv) support for 1D, 2D, and 3D PDEs, and (v) efficient inference for longer temporal rollouts. To address these limitations, we propose *Vectorized Conditional Neural Fields* (VCNeFs), which represent the solution of time-dependent PDEs as neural fields. Contrary to prior methods, however, VCNeFs compute, for a set of multiple spatio-temporal query points, their solutions in parallel and model their dependencies through attention mechanisms. Moreover, VCNeF can condition the neural field on both the initial conditions and the parameters of the PDEs. An extensive set of experiments demonstrates that VCNeFs are competitive with and often outperform existing ML-based surrogate models.

We introduce a new mean-field ODE and corresponding interacting particle systems (IPS) for sampling from an unnormalized target density. The IPS are gradient-free, available in closed form, and only require the ability to sample from a reference density and compute the (unnormalized) target-to-reference density ratio. The mean-field ODE is obtained by solving a Poisson equation for a velocity field that transports samples along the geometric mixture of the two densities, $\pi_0^{1-t} \pi_1^t$, which is the path of a particular Fisher-Rao gradient flow. We employ a RKHS ansatz for the velocity field, which makes the Poisson equation tractable and enables discretization of the resulting mean-field ODE over finite samples. The mean-field ODE can be additionally be derived from a discrete-time perspective as the limit of successive linearizations of the Monge-Ampère equations within a framework known as sample-driven optimal transport. We introduce a stochastic variant of our approach and demonstrate empirically that our IPS can produce high-quality samples from varied target distributions, outperforming comparable gradient-free particle systems and competitive with gradient-based alternatives.

Test-time adaptation has proven effective in adapting a given trained model to unseen test samples with potential distribution shifts. However, in real-world scenarios, models are usually deployed on resource-limited devices, e.g., FPGAs, and are often quantized and hard-coded with non-modifiable parameters for acceleration. In light of this, existing methods are often infeasible since they heavily depend on computation-intensive backpropagation for model updating that may be not supported. To address this, we propose a test-time Forward-Optimization Adaptation (FOA) method. In FOA, we seek to solely learn a newly added prompt (as model's input) via a derivative-free covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy. To make this strategy work stably under our online unsupervised setting, we devise a novel fitness function by measuring test-training statistic discrepancy and model prediction entropy. Moreover, we design an activation shifting scheme that directly tunes the model activations for shifted test samples, making them align with the source training domain, thereby further enhancing adaptation performance. Without using any backpropagation and altering model weights, FOA runs on quantized 8-bit ViT outperforms gradient-based TENT on full-precision 32-bit ViT, while achieving an up to *24*-fold memory reduction on ImageNet-C. The source code is available at: https://github.com/mr-eggplant/FOA.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM ($S^2$IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embedding space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, $S^2$IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed $S^2$IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

Fourier features based positional encoding (PE) is commonly used in machine learning tasks that involve learning high-frequency features from low-dimensional inputs, such as 3D view synthesis and time series regression with neural tangent kernels. Despite their effectiveness, existing PEs require manual, empirical adjustment of crucial hyperparameters, specifically the Fourier features, tailored to each unique task. Further, PEs face challenges in efficiently learning high-frequency functions, particularly in tasks with limited data. In this paper, we introduce sinusoidal PE (SPE), designed to efficiently learn adaptive frequency features closely aligned with the true underlying function. Our experiments demonstrate that SPE, without hyperparameter tuning, consistently achieves enhanced fidelity and faster training across various tasks, including 3D view synthesis, Text-to-Speech generation, and 1D regression. SPE is implemented as a direct replacement for existing PEs. Its plug-and-play nature lets numerous tasks easily adopt and benefit from SPE.

Diffusion models have exhibited remarkable advancements in generating high-quality data. However, a critical drawback is their computationally intensive inference process, which requires a large number of timesteps to generate a single sample. Existing methods address this challenge by decoupling the forward and reverse processes, and they rely on handcrafted rules for sampling acceleration, leading to the risk of discarding important steps. In this paper, we propose an Efficient Denoising Diffusion method via Probabilistic Masking (EDDPM) that can identify and skip the redundant steps during training. To determine whether a timestep should be skipped or not, we employ probabilistic reparameterization to continualize the binary determination mask. The mask distribution parameters are learned jointly with model weights. By incorporating a real-time sparse constraint, our method can effectively identify and eliminate unnecessary steps during the training iterations, thereby improving inference efficiency. Notably, as the model becomes fully trained, the random masks converge to a sparse and deterministic one, retaining only a small number of essential steps. Empirical results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed EDDPM over the state-of-the-art sampling acceleration methods across various domains. EDDPM can generate high-quality samples with only 20% of the steps for time series imputation and achieve 4.89 FID with 5 steps for CIFAR-10. Moreover, when starting from a pretrained model, our method efficiently identifies the most informative timesteps within a single epoch, which demonstrates the potential of EDDPM to be a practical tool to explore large diffusion models with limited resources.

We propose VecKM, a local point cloud geometry encoder that is descriptive and efficient to compute. VecKM leverages a unique approach by vectorizing a kernel mixture to represent the local point cloud. Such representation's descriptiveness is supported by two theorems that validate its ability to reconstruct and preserve the similarity of the local shape. Unlike existing encoders downsampling the local point cloud, VecKM constructs the local geometry encoding using all neighboring points, producing a more descriptive encoding. Moreover, VecKM is efficient to compute and scalable to large point cloud inputs: VecKM reduces the memory cost from $(n^2+nKd)$ to $(nd+np)$; and reduces the major runtime cost from computing $nK$ MLPs to $n$ MLPs, where $n$ is the size of the point cloud, $K$ is the neighborhood size, $d$ is the encoding dimension, and $p$ is a marginal factor. The efficiency is due to VecKM's unique factorizable property that eliminates the need of explicitly grouping points into neighbors. In the normal estimation task, VecKM demonstrates not only 100x faster inference speed but also highest accuracy and strongest robustness. In classification and segmentation tasks, integrating VecKM as a preprocessing module achieves consistently better performance than the PointNet, PointNet++, and point transformer baselines, and runs consistently faster by up to 10 times.

Relationships among time series can be exploited as inductive biases in learning effective forecasting models. In hierarchical time series, relationships among subsets of sequences induce hard constraints (hierarchical inductive biases) on the predicted values. In this paper, we propose a graph-based methodology to unify relational and hierarchical inductive biases in the context of deep learning for time series forecasting. In particular, we model both types of relationships as dependencies in a pyramidal graph structure, with each pyramidal layer corresponding to a level of the hierarchy. By exploiting modern - trainable - graph pooling operators we show that the hierarchical structure, if not available as a prior, can be learned directly from data, thus obtaining cluster assignments aligned with the forecasting objective. A differentiable reconciliation stage is incorporated into the processing architecture, allowing hierarchical constraints to act both as an architectural bias as well as a regularization element for predictions. Simulation results on representative datasets show that the proposed method compares favorably against the state of the art.

This paper presents a new conformal method for generating *simultaneous* forecasting bands guaranteed to cover the *entire path* of a new random trajectory with sufficiently high probability. Prompted by the need for dependable uncertainty estimates in motion planning applications where the behavior of diverse objects may be more or less unpredictable, we blend different techniques from online conformal prediction of single and multiple time series, as well as ideas for addressing heteroscedasticity in regression. This solution is both principled, providing precise finite-sample guarantees, and effective, often leading to more informative predictions than prior methods.

Transformer has shown promise in reinforcement learning to model time-varying features for obtaining generalized low-level robot policies on diverse robotics datasets in embodied learning. However, it still suffers from the issues of low data efficiency and high inference latency. In this paper, we propose to investigate the task from a new perspective of the frequency domain. We first observe that the energy density in the frequency domain of a robot's trajectory is mainly concentrated in the low-frequency part. Then, we present the Fourier Controller Network (FCNet), a new network that uses Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) to extract and encode time-varying features through frequency domain interpolation. In order to do real-time decision-making, we further adopt FFT and Sliding DFT methods in the model architecture to achieve parallel training and efficient recurrent inference. Extensive results in both simulated (e.g., D4RL) and real-world environments (e.g., robot locomotion) demonstrate FCNet's substantial efficiency and effectiveness over existing methods such as Transformer, e.g., FCNet outperforms Transformer on multi-environmental robotics datasets of all types of sizes (from 1.9M to 120M). The project page and code can be found https://thkkk.github.io/fcnet.