ICML 2024 Papers

Neural tangent kernels (NTKs) provide a theoretical regime to analyze the learning and generalization behavior of over-parametrized neural networks. For a supervised learning task, the association between the eigenvectors of the NTK and given data (a concept referred to as alignment in this paper) can govern the rate of convergence of gradient descent, as well as generalization to unseen data. Building upon this concept and leveraging the structure of NTKs for graph neural networks (GNNs), we theoretically investigate NTKs and alignment, where our analysis reveals that optimizing the alignment translates to optimizing the graph representation or the graph shift operator (GSO) in a GNN. Our results further establish theoretical guarantees on the optimality of the alignment for a two-layer GNN and these guarantees are characterized by the graph shift operator being a function of the cross-covariance between the input and the output data. The theoretical insights drawn from the analysis of NTKs are validated by our experiments focused on a multi-variate time series prediction task for a publicly available dataset. Specifically, they demonstrate that GNN-based learning models that operate on the cross-covariance matrix indeed outperform those that operate on the covariance matrix estimated from only the input data.

This paper studies the causal relations from subsampled time series, in which measurements are sparse and sampled at a coarser timescale than the causal timescale of the underlying system. In such data, because there are numerous missing time-slices (i.e., cross-sections at each time point) between two consecutive measurements, conventional causal discovery methods designed for standard time series data would produce significant errors. To learn causal relations from subsampled time series, a typical solution is to conduct different interventions and then make a comparison. However, full interventions are often expensive, unethical, or even infeasible, particularly in fields such as health and social science. In this paper, we first explore how readily available two-time-slices data can replace intervention data to improve causal ordering, and propose a novel Descendant Hierarchical Topology algorithm with Conditional Independence Test (DHT-CIT) to learn causal relations from subsampled time series using only two time-slices. Specifically, we develop a conditional independence criterion that can be applied iteratively to test each node from time series and identify all of its descendant nodes. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our DHT-CIT algorithm.

Hierarchical time series forecasting requires not only prediction accuracy but also coherency, i.e., forecasts add up appropriately across the hierarchy. Recent literature has shown that reconciliation via projection outperforms prior methods such as top-down or bottom-up approaches. Unlike existing work that pre-specifies a projection matrix (e.g., orthogonal), we study the problem of learning the optimal oblique projection from data for coherent forecasting of hierarchical time series. In addition to the unbiasedness-preserving property, oblique projection implicitly accounts for the hierarchy structure and assigns different weights to individual time series, providing significant adaptability over orthogonal projection which treats base forecast errors equally. We examine two broad classes of projections, namely Euclidean projection and general oblique projections. We propose to model the reconciliation step as a learnable, structured, projection layer in the neural forecaster architecture. The proposed approach allows for the efficient learning of the optimal projection in an end-to-end framework where both the neural forecaster and the projection layer are learned simultaneously. An empirical evaluation of real-world hierarchical time series datasets demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed method over existing state-of-the-art approaches.

This paper introduces SparseTSF, a novel, extremely lightweight model for Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), designed to address the challenges of modeling complex temporal dependencies over extended horizons with minimal computational resources. At the heart of SparseTSF lies the Cross-Period Sparse Forecasting technique, which simplifies the forecasting task by decoupling the periodicity and trend in time series data. This technique involves downsampling the original sequences to focus on cross-period trend prediction, effectively extracting periodic features while minimizing the model's complexity and parameter count. Based on this technique, the SparseTSF model uses fewer than *1k* parameters to achieve competitive or superior performance compared to state-of-the-art models. Furthermore, SparseTSF showcases remarkable generalization capabilities, making it well-suited for scenarios with limited computational resources, small samples, or low-quality data. The code is publicly available at this repository: https://github.com/lss-1138/SparseTSF.

Estimating mutual correlations between random variables or data streams is essential for intelligent behavior and decision-making. As a fundamental quantity for measuring statistical relationships, mutual information has been extensively studied and utilized for its generality and equitability. However, existing methods often lack the efficiency needed for real-time applications, such as test-time optimization of a neural network, or the differentiability required for end-to-end learning, like histograms. We introduce a neural network called InfoNet, which directly outputs mutual information estimations of data streams by leveraging the attention mechanism and the computational efficiency of deep learning infrastructures. By maximizing a dual formulation of mutual information through large-scale simulated training, our approach circumvents time-consuming test-time optimization and offers generalization ability. We evaluate the effectiveness and generalization of our proposed mutual information estimation scheme on various families of distributions and applications. Our results demonstrate that InfoNet and its training process provide a graceful efficiency-accuracy trade-off and order-preserving properties. We will make the code and models available as a comprehensive toolbox to facilitate studies in different fields requiring real-time mutual information estimation.

We study the classic problem of correlation clustering in dynamic vertex streams. In this setting, vertices are either added or randomly deleted over time, and each vertex pair is connected by a positive or negative edge. The objective is to continuously find a partition which minimizes the sum of positive edges crossing clusters and negative edges within clusters. We present an algorithm that maintains an $O(1)$-approximation with $O(\text{polylog} n)$ amortized update time. Prior to our work Behnezhad et al. in SODA 2023 achieved a $5$-approximation with $O(1)$ expected update time in edge streams which translates in vertex streams to an $O(D)$-update time where $D$ is the maximum possible degree. Finally we complement our theoretical analysis with experiments on real world data.

For Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF), recent deep learning applications show that univariate models frequently outperform multivariate ones. To address the deficiency in multivariate models, we introduce a method to Construct Auxiliary Time Series (CATS) that functions like a 2D temporal-contextual attention mechanism, which generates Auxiliary Time Series (ATS) from Original Time Series (OTS) to effectively represent and incorporate inter-series relationships for forecasting. Key principles of ATS—continuity, sparsity, and variability—are identified and implemented through different modules. Even with a basic 2-layer MLP as the core predictor, CATS achieves state-of-the-art, significantly reducing complexity and parameters compared to previous multivariate models, marking it as an efficient and transferable MTSF solution.

Reinforcement learning with multiple, potentially conflicting objectives is pervasive in real-world applications, while this problem remains theoretically under-explored. This paper tackles the multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) problem and introduces an innovative actor-critic algorithm named MOAC which finds a policy by iteratively making trade-offs among conflicting reward signals. Notably, we provide the first analysis of finite-time Pareto-stationary convergence and corresponding sample complexity in both discounted and average reward settings. Our approach has two salient features: (a) MOAC mitigates the cumulative estimation bias resulting from finding an optimal common gradient descent direction out of stochastic samples. This enables provable convergence rate and sample complexity guarantees independent of the number of objectives; (b) With proper momentum coefficient, MOAC initializes the weights of individual policy gradients using samples from the environment, instead of manual initialization. This enhances the practicality and robustness of our algorithm. Finally, experiments conducted on a real-world dataset validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Efficiently and effectively estimating counterfactuals over time is crucial for optimizing treatment strategies. We present the Adversarial Counterfactual Temporal Inference Network (ACTIN), a novel framework with dual modules to enhance counterfactual estimation. The balancing module employs a distribution-based adversarial method to learn balanced representations, extending beyond the limitations of current classification-based methods to mitigate confounding bias across various treatment types. The integrating module adopts a novel Temporal Integration Predicting (TIP) strategy, which has a wider receptive field of treatments and balanced representations from the beginning to the current time for a more profound level of analysis. TIP goes beyond the established Direct Predicting (DP) strategy, which only relies on current treatments and representations, by empowering the integrating module to effectively capture long-range dependencies and temporal treatment interactions. ACTIN exceeds the confines of specific base models, and when implemented with simple base models, consistently delivers state-of-the-art performance and efficiency across both synthetic and real-world datasets.

The vector field of a controlled differential equation (CDE) describes the relationship between a *control* path and the evolution of a *solution* path. Neural CDEs (NCDEs) treat time series data as observations from a control path, parameterise a CDE's vector field using a neural network, and use the solution path as a continuously evolving hidden state. As their formulation makes them robust to irregular sampling rates, NCDEs are a powerful approach for modelling real-world data. Building on neural rough differential equations (NRDEs), we introduce Log-NCDEs, a novel, effective, and efficient method for training NCDEs. The core component of Log-NCDEs is the Log-ODE method, a tool from the study of rough paths for approximating a CDE's solution. Log-NCDEs are shown to outperform NCDEs, NRDEs, the linear recurrent unit, S5, and MAMBA on a range of multivariate time series datasets with up to $50{,}000$ observations.

In the emergency department (ED), patients undergo triage and multiple laboratory tests before diagnosis. This time-consuming process causes ED crowding which impacts patient mortality, medical errors, staff burnout, etc. This work proposes (time) *cost-effective diagnostic assistance* that leverages artificial intelligence systems to help ED clinicians make efficient and accurate diagnoses. In collaboration with ED clinicians, we use public patient data to curate MIMIC-ED-Assist, a benchmark for AI systems to suggest laboratory tests that minimize wait time while accurately predicting critical outcomes such as death. With MIMIC-ED-Assist, we develop ED-Copilot which sequentially suggests patient-specific laboratory tests and makes diagnostic predictions. ED-Copilot employs a pre-trained bio-medical language model to encode patient information and uses reinforcement learning to minimize ED wait time and maximize prediction accuracy. On MIMIC-ED-Assist, ED-Copilot improves prediction accuracy over baselines while halving average wait time from four hours to two hours. ED-Copilot can also effectively personalize treatment recommendations based on patient severity, further highlighting its potential as a diagnostic assistant. Since MIMIC-ED-Assist is a retrospective benchmark, ED-Copilot is restricted to recommend only observed tests. We show ED-Copilot achieves competitive performance without this restriction as the maximum allowed time increases. Our code is available at https://github.com/cxcscmu/ED-Copilot.

Computational screening of naturally occurring proteins has the potential to identify efficient catalysts among the hundreds of millions of sequences that remain uncharacterized. Current experimental methods remain time, cost and labor intensive, limiting the number of enzymes they can reasonably screen. In this work, we propose a computational framework for in-silico enzyme screening. Through a contrastive objective, we train CLIPZyme to encode and align representations of enzyme structures and reaction pairs. With no standard computational baseline, we compare CLIPZyme to existing EC (enzyme commission) predictors applied to virtual enzyme screening and show improved performance in scenarios where limited information on the reaction is available (BEDROC$_{85}$ of 44.69%). Additionally, we evaluate combining EC predictors with CLIPZyme and show its generalization capacity on both unseen reactions and protein clusters.

Early time classification algorithms aim to label a stream of features without processing the full input stream, while maintaining accuracy comparable to that achieved by applying the classifier to the entire input. In this paper, we introduce a statistical framework that can be applied to any sequential classifier, formulating a calibrated stopping rule. This data-driven rule attains finite-sample, distribution-free control of the accuracy gap between full and early-time classification. We start by presenting a novel method that builds on the Learn-then-Test calibration framework to control this gap marginally, on average over i.i.d. instances. As this algorithm tends to yield an excessively high accuracy gap for early halt times, our main contribution is the proposal of a framework that controls a stronger notion of error, where the accuracy gap is controlled conditionally on the accumulated halt times. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability, and usefulness of our method. We show that our proposed early stopping mechanism reduces up to 94% of timesteps used for classification while achieving rigorous accuracy gap control.