ICML 2024 Papers

A common issue in learning decision-making policies in data-rich settings is spurious correlations in the offline dataset, which can be caused by hidden confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) regression, which utilises a key uncounfounded variable called the instrument, is a standard technique for learning causal relationships between confounded action, outcome and context variables. Most recent IV regression algorithms use a two-stage approach, where a deep neural network (DNN) estimator learnt in the first stage is directly plugged into the second stage, in which another DNN is used to estimate the causal effect. Naively plugging the estimator can cause heavy bias in the second stage, especially when regularisation bias is present in the first stage estimator. We propose DML-IV, a non-linear IV regression method that reduces the bias in two-stage IV regressions and effectively learns high-performing policies. We derive a novel learning objective to reduce bias and design the DML-IV algorithm following the double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework. The learnt DML-IV estimator has strong convergence rate and $O(N^{-1/2})$ suboptimality guarantees that match those when the dataset is unconfounded. DML-IV outperforms state-of-the-art IV regression methods on IV regression benchmarks and learns high-performing policies in the presence of instruments.

Magnetic Resonance (MR) imaging, despite its proven diagnostic utility, remains an inaccessible imaging modality for disease surveillance at the population level. A major factor rendering MR inaccessible is lengthy scan times. An MR scanner collects measurements associated with the underlying anatomy in the Fourier space, also known as the k-space. Creating a high-fidelity image requires collecting large quantities of such measurements, increasing the scan time. Traditionally to accelerate an MR scan, image reconstruction from under-sampled k-space data is the method of choice. However, recent works show the feasibility of bypassing image reconstruction and directly learning to detect disease directly from a sparser learned subset of the k-space measurements. In this work, we propose Adaptive Sampling for MR (ASMR), a sampling method that learns an adaptive policy to sequentially select k-space samples to optimize for target disease detection. On 6 out of 8 pathology classification tasks spanning the Knee, Brain, and Prostate MR scans, ASMR reaches within 2% of the performance of a fully sampled classifier while using only 8% of the k-space, as well as outperforming prior state-of-the-art work in k-space sampling such as EMRT, LOUPE, and DPS.

Predictor-based methods have substantially enhanced Neural Architecture Search (NAS) optimization. The efficacy of these predictors is largely influenced by the method of encoding neural network architectures. While traditional encodings used an adjacency matrix describing the graph structure of a neural network, novel encodings embrace a variety of approaches from unsupervised pretraining of latent representations to vectors of zero-cost proxies. In this paper, we categorize and investigate neural encodings from three main types: structural, learned, and score-based. Furthermore, we extend these encodings and introduce *unified encodings*, that extend NAS predictors to multiple search spaces. Our analysis draws from experiments conducted on over 1.5 million neural network architectures on NAS spaces such as NASBench-101 (NB101), NB201, NB301, Network Design Spaces (NDS), and TransNASBench-101. Building on our study, we present our predictor **FLAN**: **Fl**ow **A**ttention for **N**AS. FLAN integrates critical insights on predictor design, transfer learning, and *unified encodings* to enable more than an order of magnitude cost reduction for training NAS accuracy predictors. Our implementation and encodings for all neural networks are open-sourced at https://github.com/abdelfattah-lab/flan_nas.

In traditional federated learning, a single global model cannot perform equally well for all clients. Therefore, the need to achieve the *client-level fairness* in federated system has been emphasized, which can be realized by modifying the static aggregation scheme for updating the global model to an adaptive one, in response to the local signals of the participating clients. Our work reveals that existing fairness-aware aggregation strategies can be unified into an online convex optimization framework, in other words, a central server's *sequential decision making* process. To enhance the decision making capability, we propose simple and intuitive improvements for suboptimal designs within existing methods, presenting $\texttt{AAggFF}$. Considering practical requirements, we further subdivide our method tailored for the *cross-device* and the *cross-silo* settings, respectively. Theoretical analyses guarantee sublinear regret upper bounds for both settings: $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T \log{K}})$ for the cross-device setting, and $\mathcal{O}(K \log{T})$ for the cross-silo setting, with $K$ clients and $T$ federation rounds. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the federated system equipped with $\texttt{AAggFF}$ achieves better degree of client-level fairness than existing methods in both practical settings.

The efficient and theoretically sound uncertainty quantification is crucial for building trust in deep learning models. This has spurred a growing interest in conformal prediction (CP), a powerful technique that provides a model-agnostic and distribution-free method for obtaining conformal prediction sets with theoretical guarantees. However, the vulnerabilities of such CP methods with regard to dedicated data poisoning attacks have not been studied previously. To bridge this gap, for the first time, we in this paper propose a new class of black-box data poisoning attacks against CP, where the adversary aims to cause the desired manipulations of some specific examples' prediction uncertainty results (instead of misclassifications). Additionally, we design novel optimization frameworks for our proposed attacks. Further, we conduct extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our attacks on various settings (e.g., the full and split CP settings). Notably, our extensive experiments show that our attacks are more effective in manipulating uncertainty results than traditional poisoning attacks that aim at inducing misclassifications, and existing defenses against conventional attacks are ineffective against our proposed attacks.

The use of machine learning models to predict clinical outcomes from (longitudinal) electronic health record (EHR) data is becoming increasingly popular due to advances in deep architectures, representation learning, and the growing availability of large EHR datasets. Existing models generally assume access to the same data sources during both training and inference stages. However, this assumption is often challenged by the fact that real-world clinical datasets originate from various data sources (with distinct sets of covariates), which though can be available for training (in a research or retrospective setting), are more realistically only partially available (a subset of such sets) for inference when deployed. So motivated, we introduce Contrastive Learning for clinical Outcome Prediction with Partial data Sources (CLOPPS), that trains encoders to capture information across different data sources and then leverages them to build classifiers restricting access to a single data source. This approach can be used with existing cross-sectional or longitudinal outcome classification models. We present experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrating that CLOPPS consistently outperforms strong baselines in several practical scenarios.

Understanding the generalization properties of heavy-tailed stochastic optimization algorithms has attracted increasing attention over the past years. While illuminating interesting aspects of stochastic optimizers by using heavy-tailed stochastic differential equations as proxies, prior works either provided expected generalization bounds, or introduced non-computable information theoretic terms. Addressing these drawbacks, in this work, we prove high-probability generalization bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs which do not contain any nontrivial information theoretic terms. To achieve this goal, we develop new proof techniques based on estimating the entropy flows associated with the so-called fractional Fokker-Planck equation (a partial differential equation that governs the evolution of the distribution of the corresponding heavy-tailed SDE). In addition to obtaining high-probability bounds, we show that our bounds have a better dependence on the dimension of parameters as compared to prior art. Our results further identify a phase transition phenomenon, which suggests that heavy tails can be either beneficial or harmful depending on the problem structure. We support our theory with experiments conducted in a variety of settings.

Assessing response quality to instructions in language models is vital but challenging due to the complexity of human language across different contexts. This complexity often results in ambiguous or inconsistent interpretations, making accurate assessment difficult. To address this issue, we propose a novel Uncertainty-aware Reward Model (URM) that introduces a robust uncertainty estimation for the quality of paired responses based on Bayesian approximation. Trained with preference datasets, our uncertainty-enabled proxy not only scores rewards for responses but also evaluates their inherent uncertainty. Empirical results demonstrate significant benefits of incorporating the proposed proxy into language model training. Our method boosts the instruction following capability of language models by refining data curation for training and improving policy optimization objectives, thereby surpassing existing methods by a large margin on benchmarks such as Vicuna and MT-bench. These findings highlight that our proposed approach substantially advances language model training and paves a new way of harnessing uncertainty within language models.

Concept guidance has emerged as a cheap and simple way to control the behavior of language models by probing their hidden representations for concept vectors and using them to perturb activations at inference time. While the focus of previous work has largely been on *truthfulness*, in this paper we extend this framework to a richer set of concepts such as *appropriateness*, *humor*, *creativity* and *quality*, and explore to what degree current detection and guidance strategies work in these challenging settings. To facilitate evaluation, we develop a novel metric for concept guidance that takes into account both the success of concept elicitation as well as the potential degradation in fluency of the guided model. Our extensive experiments reveal that while some concepts such as *truthfulness* more easily allow for guidance with current techniques, novel concepts such as *appropriateness* or *humor* either remain difficult to elicit, need extensive tuning to work, or even experience confusion. Moreover, we find that probes with optimal detection accuracies do not necessarily make for the optimal guides, contradicting previous observations for *truthfulness*. Our work warrants a deeper investigation into the interplay between detectability, guidability, and the nature of the concept, and we hope that our rich experimental test-bed for guidance research inspires stronger follow-up approaches.

Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty, resulting from missing information in the model's training data. In large language models (LLMs) specifically, identifying sources of uncertainty is an important step toward improving reliability, trustworthiness, and interpretability, but remains an important open research question. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty decomposition framework for LLMs, called input clarification ensembling, which can be applied to any pre-trained LLM. Our approach generates a set of clarifications for the input, feeds them into an LLM, and ensembles the corresponding predictions. We show that, when aleatoric uncertainty arises from ambiguity or under-specification in LLM inputs, this approach makes it possible to factor an (un-clarified) LLM's predictions into separate aleatoric and epistemic terms, using a decomposition similar to the one employed by Bayesian neural networks. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that input clarification ensembling provides accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification on several language processing tasks. Code and data are available at https://github.com/UCSB-NLP-Chang/llm_uncertainty.

We study the behavior of optimal ridge regularization and optimal ridge risk for out-of-distribution prediction, where the test distribution deviates arbitrarily from the train distribution. We establish general conditions that determine the sign of the optimal regularization level under covariate and regression shifts. These conditions capture the alignment between the covariance and signal structures in the train and test data and reveal stark differences compared to the in-distribution setting. For example, a negative regularization level can be optimal under covariate shift or regression shift, even when the training features are isotropic or the design is underparameterized. Furthermore, we prove that the optimally tuned risk is monotonic in the data aspect ratio, even in the out-of-distribution setting and when optimizing over negative regularization levels. In general, our results do not make any modeling assumptions for the train or the test distributions, except for moment bounds, and allow for arbitrary shifts and the widest possible range of (negative) regularization levels.

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated, leading to large prediction sets in conformal prediction. To address this issue, we propose a novel algorithm named $\textit{Sorted Adaptive Prediction Sets}$ (SAPS), which discards all the probability values except for the maximum softmax probability. The key idea behind SAPS is to minimize the dependence of the non-conformity score on the probability values while retaining the uncertainty information. In this manner, SAPS can produce compact prediction sets and communicate instance-wise uncertainty. Extensive experiments validate that SAPS not only lessens the prediction sets but also broadly enhances the conditional coverage rate of prediction sets.

This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce the notion of unreliability in regression, i.e., when the output of the regressor exceeds a specified discrepancy (or error). Then, using powerful tools for probabilistic modeling, we estimate the discrepancy density, and we measure its statistical diversity using our proposed metric for statistical dissimilarity. In turn, this allows us to derive a data-driven score that expresses the uncertainty of the regression outcome. We show empirical improvements in error detection for multiple regression tasks, consistently outperforming popular baseline approaches, and contributing to the broader field of uncertainty quantification and safe machine learning systems.

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research has considered relaxations of full conditional guarantees, relying on some *predefined* uncertainty structures. Departing from this line of thinking, we propose Partition Learning Conformal Prediction (PLCP), a framework to improve conditional validity of prediction sets through *learning* uncertainty-guided features from the calibration data. We implement PLCP efficiently with alternating gradient descent, utilizing off-the-shelf machine learning models. We further analyze PLCP theoretically and provide conditional guarantees for infinite and finite sample sizes. Finally, our experimental results over four real-world and synthetic datasets show the superior performance of PLCP compared to state-of-the-art methods in terms of coverage and length in both classification and regression scenarios.

We investigate the accuracy of prediction in deterministic learning dynamics of zero-sum games with random initializations, specifically focusing on observer uncertainty and its relationship to the evolution of covariances. Zero-sum games are a prominent field of interest in machine learning due to their various applications. Concurrently, the accuracy of prediction in dynamical systems from mechanics has long been a classic subject of investigation since the discovery of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. This principle employs covariance and standard deviation of particle states to measure prediction accuracy. In this study, we bring these two approaches together to analyze the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm in two-player zero-sum games. We provide growth rates of covariance information for continuous-time FTRL, as well as its two canonical discretization methods (Euler and Symplectic). A Heisenberg-type inequality is established for FTRL. Our analysis and experiments also show that employing Symplectic discretization enhances the accuracy of prediction in learning dynamics.

The performance of learning models often deteriorates when deployed in out-of-sample environments. To ensure reliable deployment, we propose a stability evaluation criterion based on distributional perturbations. Conceptually, our stability evaluation criterion is defined as the minimal perturbation required on our observed dataset to induce a prescribed deterioration in risk evaluation. In this paper, we utilize the optimal transport (OT) discrepancy with moment constraints on the (sample, density) space to quantify this perturbation. Therefore, our stability evaluation criterion can address both data corruptions and sub-population shifts—the two most common types of distribution shifts in real-world scenarios. To further realize practical benefits, we present a series of tractable convex formulations and computational methods tailored to different classes of loss functions. The key technical tool to achieve this is the strong duality theorem provided in this paper. Empirically, we validate the practical utility of our stability evaluation criterion across a host of real-world applications. These empirical studies showcase the criterion's ability not only to compare the stability of different learning models and features but also to provide valuable guidelines and strategies to further improve models.

Algorithmic predictions are emerging as a promising solution concept for efficiently allocating societal resources. Fueling their use is an underlying assumption that such systems are necessary to identify individuals for interventions. We propose a principled framework for assessing this assumption: Using a simple mathematical model, we evaluate the efficacy of prediction-based allocations in settings where individuals belong to larger units such as hospitals, neighborhoods, or schools. We find that prediction-based allocations outperform baseline methods using aggregate unit-level statistics only when between-unit inequality is low and the intervention budget is high. Our results hold for a wide range of settings for the price of prediction, treatment effect heterogeneity, and unit-level statistics' learnability. Combined, we highlight the potential limits to improving the efficacy of interventions through prediction.

Deep neural networks are over-parameterized and easily overfit to and memorize the datasets that they train on. In the extreme case, it has been shown that networks can memorize a randomly labeled dataset. In this paper, we propose using the curvature of the loss function around each training sample, averaged over training epochs, as a measure of memorization of a sample. We show that this curvature metric effectively captures memorization statistics, both qualitatively and quantitatively in popular image datasets. We provide quantitative validation of the proposed metric against memorization scores released by Feldman & Zhang (2020). Further, experiments on mislabeled data detection show that corrupted samples are learned with high curvature and using curvature for identifying mislabelled examples outperforms existing approaches. Qualitatively, we find that high curvature samples correspond to long-tailed, mislabeled, or conflicting instances, indicating a likelihood of memorization. Notably, this analysis helps us find, to the best of our knowledge, a novel failure mode on the CIFAR100 and ImageNet datasets: that of duplicated images with differing labels.

In addressing the challenge of Crystal Structure Prediction (CSP), symmetry-aware deep learning models, particularly diffusion models, have been extensively studied, which treat CSP as a conditional generation task. However, ensuring permutation, rotation, and periodic translation equivariance during diffusion process remains incompletely addressed. In this work, we propose EquiCSP, a novel equivariant diffusion-based generative model. We not only address the overlooked issue of lattice permutation equivariance in existing models, but also develop a unique noising algorithm that rigorously maintains periodic translation equivariance throughout both training and inference processes. Our experiments indicate that EquiCSP significantly surpasses existing models in terms of generating accurate structures and demonstrates faster convergence during the training process.