ICML 2024 Papers

We present Neural Quantile Estimation (NQE), a novel Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) method based on conditional quantile regression. NQE autoregressively learns individual one dimensional quantiles for each posterior dimension, conditioned on the data and previous posterior dimensions. Posterior samples are obtained by interpolating the predicted quantiles using monotonic cubic Hermite spline, with specific treatment for the tail behavior and multi-modal distributions. We introduce an alternative definition for the Bayesian credible region using the local Cumulative Density Function (CDF), offering substantially faster evaluation than the traditional Highest Posterior Density Region (HPDR). In case of limited simulation budget and/or known model misspecification, a post-processing calibration step can be integrated into NQE to ensure the unbiasedness of the posterior estimation with negligible additional computational cost. We demonstrate that NQE achieves state-of-the-art performance on a variety of benchmark problems.

We present a detailed study of $H$-consistency bounds for regression. We first present new theorems that generalize the tools previously given to establish $H$-consistency bounds. This generalization proves essential for analyzing $H$-consistency bounds specific to regression. Next, we prove a series of novel $H$-consistency bounds for surrogate loss functions of the squared loss, under the assumption of a symmetric distribution and a bounded hypothesis set. This includes positive results for the Huber loss, all $\ell_p$ losses, $p \geq 1$, the squared $\epsilon$-insensitive loss, as well as a negative result for the $\epsilon$-insensitive loss used in Support Vector Regression (SVR). We further leverage our analysis of $H$-consistency for regression and derive principled surrogate losses for adversarial regression (Section 5). This readily establishes novel algorithms for adversarial regression, for which we report favorable experimental results in Section 6.

Data augmentation (DA) methods tailored to specific domains generate synthetic samples by applying transformations that are appropriate for the characteristics of the underlying data domain, such as rotations on images and time warping on time series data. In contrast, *domain-independent* approaches, e.g. *mixup*, are applicable to various data modalities, and as such they are general and versatile. While regularizing classification tasks via DA is a well-explored research topic, the effect of DA on regression problems received less attention. To bridge this gap, we study the problem of domain-independent augmentation for regression, and we introduce *FOMA*: a new data-driven domain-independent data augmentation method. Essentially, our approach samples new examples from the tangent planes of the train distribution. Augmenting data in this way aligns with the network tendency towards capturing the dominant features of its input signals. We evaluate *FOMA* on in-distribution generalization and out-of-distribution robustness benchmarks, and we show that it improves the generalization of several neural architectures. We also find that strong baselines based on *mixup* are less effective in comparison to our approach. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/azencot-group/FOMA

This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce the notion of unreliability in regression, i.e., when the output of the regressor exceeds a specified discrepancy (or error). Then, using powerful tools for probabilistic modeling, we estimate the discrepancy density, and we measure its statistical diversity using our proposed metric for statistical dissimilarity. In turn, this allows us to derive a data-driven score that expresses the uncertainty of the regression outcome. We show empirical improvements in error detection for multiple regression tasks, consistently outperforming popular baseline approaches, and contributing to the broader field of uncertainty quantification and safe machine learning systems.

We study the trajectory of iterations and the convergence rates of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for two-component Mixed Linear Regression (2MLR). The fundamental goal of MLR is to learn the regression models from unlabeled observations. The EM algorithm finds extensive applications in solving the mixture of linear regressions. Recent results have established the super-linear convergence of EM for 2MLR in the noiseless and high SNR settings under some assumptions and its global convergence rate with random initialization has been affirmed. However, the exponent of convergence has not been theoretically estimated and the geometric properties of the trajectory of EM iterations are not well-understood. In this paper, first, using Bessel functions we provide explicit closed-form expressions for the EM updates under all SNR regimes. Then, in the noiseless setting, we completely characterize the behavior of EM iterations by deriving a recurrence relation at the population level and notably show that all the iterations lie on a certain cycloid. Based on this new trajectory-based analysis, we exhibit the theoretical estimate for the exponent of super-linear convergence and further improve the statistical error bound at the finite-sample level. Our analysis provides a new framework for studying the behavior of EM for Mixed Linear Regression.

Machine learning (ML) approaches have been successfully applied to accelerating exact combinatorial optimization (CO) solvers. However, many of them fail to explain what patterns they have learned that accelerate the CO algorithms due to the black-box nature of ML models like neural networks, and thus they prevent researchers from further understanding the tasks they are interested in. To tackle this problem, we propose the *first* graph-based algorithm discovery framework---namely, graph symbolic discovery for exact combinatorial optimization solver (GS4CO)---that learns interpretable branching policies directly from the *general* bipartite graph representation of CO problems. Specifically, we design a unified representation for symbolic policies with graph inputs, and then we employ a Transformer with multiple tree-structural encodings to generate symbolic trees end-to-end, which effectively reduces the cumulative error from iteratively distilling graph neural networks. Experiments show that GS4CO learned interpretable and lightweight policies outperform all the baselines on CPU machines, including both the human-designed and the learning-based. GS4CO shows an encouraging step towards general algorithm discovery on modern CO solvers.

It is by now well-established that modern over-parameterized models seem to elude the bias-variance tradeoff and generalize well despite overfitting noise. Many recent works attempt to analyze this phenomenon in the relatively tractable setting of kernel regression. However, as we argue in detail, most past works on this topic either make unrealistic assumptions, or focus on a narrow problem setup. This work aims to provide a unified theory to upper bound the excess risk of kernel regression for nearly all common and realistic settings. When applied to common kernels, our results imply benign overfitting in high input dimensions, nearly tempered overfitting in fixed dimensions, and explicit convergence rates for regularized regression. As a by-product, we obtain time-dependent bounds for neural networks trained in the kernel regime. Our results rely on new relative perturbation bounds for the eigenvalues of kernel matrices, which may be of independent interest. These reveal a self-regularization phenomenon, whereby a heavy tail in the eigendecomposition of the kernel implicitly leads to good generalization.

Understanding the generalization properties of large-scale models necessitates incorporating realistic data assumptions into the analysis. Therefore, we consider Principal Component Regression (PCR)---combining principal component analysis and linear regression---on data from a low-dimensional manifold. We present an analysis of PCR when the data is sampled from a spiked covariance model, obtaining fundamental asymptotic guarantees for the generalization risk of this model. Our analysis is based on random matrix theory and allows us to provide guarantees for high-dimensional data. We additionally present an analysis of the distribution shift between training and test data. The results allow us to disentangle the effects of (1) the number of parameters, (2) the data-generating model and, (3) model misspecification on the generalization risk. The use of PCR effectively regularizes the model and prevents the interpolation peak of the double descent. Our theoretical findings are empirically validated in simulation, demonstrating their practical relevance.

Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting. Models equipped with this capacity output an interval of values in which the ground truth target will fall with some prespecified probability. This is an essential requirement in many real-world applications where simple point predictions' inability to convey the magnitude and frequency of errors renders them insufficient for high-stakes decisions. Quantile regression is a leading approach for obtaining such intervals via the empirical estimation of quantiles in the (non-parametric) distribution of outputs. This method is simple, computationally inexpensive, interpretable, assumption-free, and effective. However, it does require that the specific quantiles being learned are chosen a priori. This results in (a) intervals that are arbitrarily symmetric around the median which is sub-optimal for realistic skewed distributions, or (b) learning an excessive number of intervals. In this work, we propose Relaxed Quantile Regression (RQR), a direct alternative to quantile regression based interval construction that removes this arbitrary constraint whilst maintaining its strengths. We demonstrate that this added flexibility results in intervals with an improvement in desirable qualities (e.g. mean width) whilst retaining the essential coverage guarantees of quantile regression.

This paper describes a differentially private post-processing algorithm for learning fair regressors satisfying statistical parity, addressing privacy concerns of machine learning models trained on sensitive data, as well as fairness concerns of their potential to propagate historical biases. Our algorithm can be applied to post-process any given regressor to improve fairness by remapping its outputs. It consists of three steps: first, the output distributions are estimated privately via histogram density estimation and the Laplace mechanism, then their Wasserstein barycenter is computed, and the optimal transports to the barycenter are used for post-processing to satisfy fairness. We analyze the sample complexity of our algorithm and provide fairness guarantee, revealing a trade-off between the statistical bias and variance induced from the choice of the number of bins in the histogram, in which using less bins always favors fairness at the expense of error.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a powerful technique for discovering the underlying mathematical expressions from observed data. Inspired by the success of deep learning, recent deep generative SR methods have shown promising results. However, these methods face difficulties in processing high-dimensional problems and learning constants due to the large search space, and they don't scale well to unseen problems. In this work, we propose DySymNet, a novel neural-guided **Dy**namic **Sym**bolic **Net**work for SR. Instead of searching for expressions within a large search space, we explore symbolic networks with various structures, guided by reinforcement learning, and optimize them to identify expressions that better-fitting the data. Based on extensive numerical experiments on low-dimensional public standard benchmarks and the well-known SRBench with more variables, DySymNet shows clear superiority over several representative baseline models. Open source code is available at https://github.com/AILWQ/DySymNet.

Most works studying representation learning focus only on classification and neglect regression. Yet, the learning objectives and, therefore, the representation topologies of the two tasks are fundamentally different: classification targets class separation, leading to disconnected representations, whereas regression requires ordinality with respect to the target, leading to continuous representations. We thus wonder how the effectiveness of a regression representation is influenced by its topology, with evaluation based on the Information Bottleneck (IB) principle. The IB principle is an important framework that provides principles for learning effective representations. We establish two connections between it and the topology of regression representations. The first connection reveals that a lower intrinsic dimension of the feature space implies a reduced complexity of the representation $Z$. This complexity can be quantified as the conditional entropy of $Z$ on the target $Y$, and serves as an upper bound on the generalization error. The second connection suggests a feature space that is topologically similar to the target space will better align with the IB principle. Based on these two connections, we introduce PH-Reg, a regularizer specific to regression that matches the intrinsic dimension and topology of the feature space with the target space. Experiments on synthetic and real-world regression tasks demonstrate the benefits of PH-Reg. Code: https://github.com/needylove/PH-Reg.

Our goal is to $\textit{efficiently}$ discover a compact set of temporal logic rules to explain irregular events of interest. We introduce a neural-symbolic rule induction framework within the temporal point process model. The negative log-likelihood is the loss that guides the learning, where the explanatory logic rules and their weights are learned end-to-end in a $\textit{differentiable}$ way. Specifically, predicates and logic rules are represented as $\textit{vector embeddings}$, where the predicate embeddings are fixed and the rule embeddings are trained via gradient descent to obtain the most appropriate compositional representations of the predicate embeddings. To make the rule learning process more efficient and flexible, we adopt a $\textit{sequential covering algorithm}$, which progressively adds rules to the model and removes the event sequences that have been explained until all event sequences have been covered. All the found rules will be fed back to the models for a final rule embedding and weight refinement. Our approach showcases notable efficiency and accuracy across synthetic and real datasets, surpassing state-of-the-art baselines by a wide margin in terms of efficiency.

Designing deep neural network classifiers that perform robustly on distributions differing from the available training data is an active area of machine learning research. However, out-of-distribution generalization for regression---the analogous problem for modeling continuous targets---remains relatively unexplored. To tackle this problem, we return to first principles and analyze how the closed-form solution for Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is sensitive to covariate shift. We characterize the out-of-distribution risk of the OLS model in terms of the eigenspectrum decomposition of the source and target data. We then use this insight to propose a method called Spectral Adapted Regressor (SpAR) for adapting the weights of the last layer of a pre-trained neural regression model to perform better on input data originating from a different distribution. We demonstrate how this lightweight spectral adaptation procedure can improve out-of-distribution performance for synthetic and real-world datasets.

Neuro-symbolic learning (NSL) models complex symbolic rule patterns into latent variable distributions by neural networks, which reduces rule search space and generates unseen rules to improve downstream task performance. Centralized NSL learning involves directly acquiring data from downstream tasks, which is not feasible for federated learning (FL). To address this limitation, we shift the focus from such a one-to-one interactive neuro-symbolic paradigm to one-to-many Federated Neuro-Symbolic Learning framework (FedNSL) with latent variables as the FL communication medium. Built on the basis of our novel reformulation of the NSL theory, FedNSL is capable of identifying and addressing rule distribution heterogeneity through a simple and effective Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence constraint on rule distribution applicable under the FL setting. It further theoretically adjusts variational expectation maximization (V-EM) to reduce the rule search space across domains. This is the first incorporation of distribution-coupled bilevel optimization into FL. Extensive experiments based on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate significant advantages of FedNSL compared to five state-of-the-art methods. It outperforms the best baseline by 17% and 29% in terms of unbalanced average training accuracy and unseen average testing accuracy, respectively.

We derive new bounds for the condition number of kernel matrices, which we then use to enhance existing non-asymptotic test error bounds for kernel ridgeless regression in the over-parameterized regime for a fixed input dimension. For kernels with polynomial spectral decay, we recover the bound from previous work; for exponential decay, our bound is non-trivial and novel. Our conclusion is two-fold: (i) kernel regressors whose eigenspectrum decays polynomially must generalize well, even in the presence of noisy labeled training data; these models exhibit so-called tempered overfitting; (ii) if the eigenspectrum of any kernel ridge regressor decays exponentially, then it generalizes poorly, i.e., it exhibits catastrophic overfitting. This adds to the available characterization of kernel ridge regressors exhibiting benign overfitting as the extremal case where the eigenspectrum of the kernel decays sub-polynomially. Our analysis combines new random matrix theory (RMT) techniques with recent tools in the kernel ridge regression (KRR) literature.

We develop algorithms for online linear regression which achieve optimal static and dynamic regret guarantees *even in the complete absence of prior knowledge*. We present a novel analysis showing that a discounted variant of the Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth forecaster achieves dynamic regret of the form $R_{T}(\vec{u})\le O\Big(d\log(T)\vee \sqrt{dP_{T}^{\gamma}(\vec{u})T}\Big)$, where $P_{T}^{\gamma}(\vec{u})$ is a measure of variability of the comparator sequence, and show that the discount factor achieving this result can be learned on-the-fly. We show that this result is optimal by providing a matching lower bound. We also extend our results to *strongly-adaptive* guarantees which hold over every sub-interval $[a,b]\subseteq[1,T]$ simultaneously.

We obtain the first positive results for bounded sample compression in the agnostic regression setting with the $\ell_p$ loss, where $p\in [1,\infty]$. We construct a generic approximate sample compression scheme for real-valued function classes exhibiting exponential size in the fat-shattering dimension but independent of the sample size. Notably, for linear regression, an approximate compression of size linear in the dimension is constructed. Moreover, for $\ell_1$ and $\ell_\infty$ losses, we can even exhibit an efficient exact sample compression scheme of size linear in the dimension. We further show that for every other $\ell_p$ loss, $p\in (1,\infty)$, there does not exist an exact agnostic compression scheme of bounded size. This refines and generalizes a negative result of David, Moran, and Yehudayoff (2016) for the $\ell_2$ loss. We close by posing general open questions: for agnostic regression with $\ell_1$ loss, does every function class admit an exact compression scheme of polynomial size in the pseudo-dimension? For the $\ell_2$ loss, does every function class admit an approximate compression scheme of polynomial size in the fat-shattering dimension? These questions generalize Warmuth's classic sample compression conjecture for realizable-case classification (Warmuth, 2003).

Instrumental variable (IV) regression can be approached through its formulation in terms of conditional moment restrictions (CMR). Building on variants of the generalized method of moments, most CMR estimators are implicitly based on approximating the population data distribution via reweightings of the empirical sample. While for large sample sizes, in the independent identically distributed (IID) setting, reweightings can provide sufficient flexibility, they might fail to capture the relevant information in presence of corrupted data or data prone to adversarial attacks. To address these shortcomings, we propose the Sinkhorn Method of Moments, an optimal transport-based IV estimator that takes into account the geometry of the data manifold through data-derivative information. We provide a simple plug-and-play implementation of our method that performs on par with related estimators in standard settings but improves robustness against data corruption and adversarial attacks.