ICML 2023 Papers

Despite the widespread use of graph neural networks (GNNs) we lack methods to reliably quantify their uncertainty. We propose a conformal procedure to equip GNNs with prediction sets that come with distribution-free guarantees -- the output set contains the true label with arbitrarily high probability. Our post-processing procedure can wrap around any (pretrained) GNN, and unlike existing methods, results in meaningful sets even when the model provides only the top class. The key idea is to diffuse the node-wise conformity scores to incorporate neighborhood information. By leveraging the network homophily we construct sets with comparable or better efficiency (average size) and significantly improved singleton hit ratio (correct sets of size one). In addition to an extensive empirical evaluation, we investigate the theoretical conditions under which smoothing provably improves efficiency.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.

We approach the problem of improving robustness of deep learning algorithms in the presence of label noise. Building upon existing label correction and co-teaching methods, we propose a novel training procedure to mitigate the memorization of noisy labels, called CrossSplit, which uses a pair of neural networks trained on two disjoint parts of the labeled dataset. CrossSplit combines two main ingredients: (i) Cross-split label correction. The idea is that, since the model trained on one part of the data cannot memorize example-label pairs from the other part, the training labels presented to each network can be smoothly adjusted by using the predictions of its peer network; (ii) Cross-split semi-supervised training. A network trained on one part of the data also uses the unlabeled inputs of the other part. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet and mini-WebVision datasets demonstrate that our method can outperform the current state-of-the-art in a wide range of noise ratios. The project page is at https://rlawlgul.github.io/.

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper, we propose TimeDiff, a non-autoregressive diffusion model that achieves high-quality time series prediction with the introduction of two novel conditioning mechanisms: future mixup and autoregressive initialization. Similar to teacher forcing, future mixup allows parts of the ground-truth future predictions for conditioning, while autoregressive initialization helps better initialize the model with basic time series patterns such as short-term trends. Extensive experiments are performed on nine real-world datasets. Results show that TimeDiff consistently outperforms existing time series diffusion models, and also achieves the best overall performance across a variety of the existing strong baselines (including transformers and FiLM).

This paper studies the multi-agent performative prediction (Multi-PP) games over multiplex networks. We consider a distributed learning setting where agents partially cooperate on an agent network, while during learning, the data samples drawn depend on the prediction models of the agent itself and neighboring agents on a population network. The dynamics of Multi-PP games is hence affected by the interplay between both networks. This paper concentrates on this Multi-PP game with the following contributions. Firstly, we analyze sufficient conditions for the existence of the performative stable equilibrium (PSE) and Nash equilibrium (NE) of the Multi-PP games. Secondly, we analyze the changes to the equilibrium induced by perturbed data distributions, and derive the closed-form solutions where the network topologies are explicit. Our results connect the existence of PSE/NE with strengths of agents' cooperation, and the changes of equilibrium solutions across agents with their node centrality, etc. Lastly, we show that a stochastic gradient descent (SGD) based distributed learning procedure finds the PSE under the said sufficient condition. Numerical illustrations on the network effects in Multi-PP games corroborate our findings.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Aligning language models with preferences can be posed as approximating a target distribution representing some desired behavior. Existing approaches differ both in the functional form of the target distribution and the algorithm used to approximate it. For instance, Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) corresponds to minimizing a reverse KL from an implicit target distribution arising from a KL penalty in the objective. On the other hand, Generative Distributional Control (GDC) has an explicit target distribution and minimizes a forward KL from it using the Distributional Policy Gradient (DPG) algorithm. In this paper, we propose a new approach, $f$-DPG, which allows the use of any $f$-divergence to approximate any target distribution that can be evaluated. $f$-DPG unifies both frameworks (RLHF, GDC) and the approximation methods (DPG, RL with KL penalties). We show the practical benefits of various choices of divergence objectives and demonstrate that there is no universally optimal objective but that different divergences present different alignment and diversity trade-offs. We show that Jensen-Shannon divergence strikes a good balance between these objectives, and frequently outperforms forward KL divergence by a wide margin, leading to significant improvements over prior work. These distinguishing characteristics between divergences persist as the model size increases, highlighting the importance of selecting appropriate divergence objectives.

Automated decision support systems promise to help human experts solve multiclass classification tasks more efficiently and accurately. However, existing systems typically require experts to understand when to cede agency to the system or when to exercise their own agency. Otherwise, the experts may be better off solving the classification tasks on their own. In this work, we develop an automated decision support system that, by design, does not require experts to understand when to trust the system to improve performance. Rather than providing (single) label predictions and letting experts decide when to trust these predictions, our system provides sets of label predictions constructed using conformal prediction---prediction sets---and forcefully asks experts to predict labels from these sets. By using conformal prediction, our system can precisely trade-off the probability that the true label is not in the prediction set, which determines how frequently our system will mislead the experts, and the size of the prediction set, which determines the difficulty of the classification task the experts need to solve using our system. In addition, we develop an efficient and near-optimal search method to find the conformal predictor under which the experts benefit the most from using our system. Simulation experiments using synthetic and real expert predictions demonstrate that our system may help experts make more accurate predictions and is robust to the accuracy of the classifier the conformal predictor relies on.

We study the domain adaptation problem with label shift in this work. Under the label shift context, the marginal distribution of the label varies across the training and testing datasets, while the conditional distribution of features given the label is the same. Traditional label shift adaptation methods either suffer from large estimation errors or require cumbersome post-prediction calibrations. To address these issues, we first propose a moment-matching framework for adapting the label shift based on the geometry of the influence function. Under such a framework, we propose a novel method named $\underline{\mathrm{E}}$fficient $\underline{\mathrm{L}}$abel $\underline{\mathrm{S}}$hift $\underline{\mathrm{A}}$daptation (ELSA), in which the adaptation weights can be estimated by solving linear systems. Theoretically, the ELSA estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent ($n$ is the sample size of the source data) and asymptotically normal. Empirically, we show that ELSA can achieve state-of-the-art estimation performances without post-prediction calibrations, thus, gaining computational efficiency.

In this work, we investigate the online learning problem of revenue maximization in ad auctions, where the seller needs to learn the click-through rates (CTRs) of each ad candidate and charge the price of the winner through a pay-per-click manner. We focus on two models of the advertisers' strategic behaviors. First, we assume that the advertiser is completely myopic; i.e. in each round, they aim to maximize their utility only for the current round. In this setting, we develop an online mechanism based on upper-confidence bounds that achieves a tight $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret in the worst-case and negative regret when the values are static across all the auctions and there is a gap between the highest expected value (i.e. value multiplied by their CTR) and second highest expected value ad. Next, we assume that the advertiser is non-myopic and cares about their long term utility. This setting is much more complex since an advertiser is incentivized to influence the mechanism by bidding strategically in earlier rounds. In this setting, we provide an algorithm to achieve negative regret for the static valuation setting (with a positive gap), which is in sharp contrast with the prior work that shows $O(T^{2/3})$ regret when the valuation is generated by adversary.

Activity and property prediction models are the central workhorses in drug discovery and materials sciences, but currently, they have to be trained or fine-tuned for new tasks. Without training or fine-tuning, scientific language models could be used for such low-data tasks through their announced zero- and few-shot capabilities. However, their predictive quality at activity prediction is lacking. In this work, we envision a novel type of activity prediction model that is able to adapt to new prediction tasks at inference time, via understanding textual information describing the task. To this end, we propose a new architecture with separate modules for chemical and natural language inputs, and a contrastive pretraining objective on data from large biochemical databases. In extensive experiments, we show that our method CLAMP yields improved predictive performance on few-shot learning benchmarks and zero-shot problems in drug discovery. We attribute the advances of our method to the modularized architecture and to our pre-training objective.

When physical sensors are involved, such as image sensors, the uncertainty over the input data is often a major component of the output uncertainty of machine learning models. In this work, we address the problem of input uncertainty propagation through trained neural networks. We do not rely on a Gaussian distribution assumption of the output or of any intermediate layer. We propagate instead a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) that offers much more flexibility, using the Split&Merge algorithm. This paper's main contribution is the computation of a Wasserstein criterion to control the Gaussian splitting procedure for which theoretical guarantees of convergence on the output distribution estimates are derived. The methodology is tested against a wide range of datasets and networks. It shows robustness, and genericity and offers highly accurate output probability density function estimation while maintaining a reasonable computational cost compared with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) approach.

We study property prediction for crystal materials. A crystal structure consists of a minimal unit cell that is repeated infinitely in 3D space. How to accurately represent such repetitive structures in machine learning models remains unresolved. Current methods construct graphs by establishing edges only between nearby nodes, thereby failing to faithfully capture infinite repeating patterns and distant interatomic interactions. In this work, we propose several innovations to overcome these limitations. First, we propose to model physics-principled interatomic potentials directly instead of only using distances as in many existing methods. These potentials include the Coulomb potential, London dispersion potential, and Pauli repulsion potential. Second, we model the complete set of potentials among all atoms, instead of only between nearby atoms as in existing methods. This is enabled by our approximations of infinite potential summations with provable error bounds. We further develop efficient algorithms to compute the approximations. Finally, we propose to incorporate our computations of complete interatomic potentials into message passing neural networks for representation learning. We perform experiments on the JARVIS and Materials Project benchmarks for evaluation. Results show that the use of interatomic potentials and complete interatomic potentials leads to consistent performance improvements with reasonable computational costs. Our code is publicly available as part of the AIRS library (https://github.com/divelab/AIRS).

Recent studies have shown that paddings in convolutional neural networks encode absolute position information which can negatively affect the model performance for certain tasks. However, existing metrics for quantifying the strength of positional information remain unreliable and frequently lead to erroneous results. To address this issue, we propose novel metrics for measuring and visualizing the encoded positional information. We formally define the encoded information as Position-information Pattern from Padding (PPP) and conduct a series of experiments to study its properties as well as its formation. The proposed metrics measure the presence of positional information more reliably than the existing metrics based on PosENet and tests in F-Conv. We also demonstrate that for any extant (and proposed) padding schemes, PPP is primarily a learning artifact and is less dependent on the characteristics of the underlying padding schemes.

In the presence of noisy labels, designing robust loss functions is critical for securing the generalization performance of deep neural networks. Cross Entropy (CE) loss has been shown to be not robust to noisy labels due to its unboundedness. To alleviate this issue, existing works typically design specialized robust losses with the symmetric condition, which usually lead to the underfitting issue. In this paper, our key idea is to induce a loss bound at the logit level, thus universally enhancing the noise robustness of existing losses. Specifically, we propose logit clipping (LogitClip), which clamps the norm of the logit vector to ensure that it is upper bounded by a constant. In this manner, CE loss equipped with our LogitClip method is effectively bounded, mitigating the overfitting to examples with noisy labels. Moreover, we present theoretical analyses to certify the noise-tolerant ability of LogitClip. Extensive experiments show that LogitClip not only significantly improves the noise robustness of CE loss, but also broadly enhances the generalization performance of popular robust losses.

Given a pre-trained in-distribution (ID) model, the inference-time out-of-distribution (OOD) detection aims to recognize OOD data during the inference stage. However, some representative methods share an unproven assumption that the probability that OOD data belong to every ID class should be the same, i.e., these OOD-to-ID probabilities actually form a uniform distribution. In this paper, we show that this assumption makes the above methods incapable when the ID model is trained with class-imbalanced data.Fortunately, by analyzing the causal relations between ID/OOD classes and features, we identify several common scenarios where the OOD-to-ID probabilities should be the ID-class-prior distribution and propose two strategies to modify existing inference-time detection methods: 1) replace the uniform distribution with the ID-class-prior distribution if they explicitly use the uniform distribution; 2) otherwise, reweight their scores according to the similarity between the ID-class-prior distribution and the softmax outputs of the pre-trained model. Extensive experiments show that both strategies can improve the OOD detection performance when the ID model is pre-trained with imbalanced data, reflecting the importance of ID-class prior in OOD detection.

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of the feature learning process in deep classifiers. Recent research has identified a training phenomenon called Neural Collapse (NC), in which the top-layer feature embeddings of samples from the same class tend to concentrate around their means, and the top layer's weights align with those features. Our study aims to investigate if these properties extend to intermediate layers. We empirically study the evolution of the covariance and mean of representations across different layers and show that as we move deeper into a trained neural network, the within-class covariance decreases relative to the between-class covariance. Additionally, we find that in the top layers, where the between-class covariance is dominant, the subspace spanned by the class means aligns with the subspace spanned by the most significant singular vector components of the weight matrix in the corresponding layer. Finally, we discuss the relationship between NC and Associative Memories (Willshaw et. al. 1969).

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

In this paper, we study the problem of inference in high-order structured prediction tasks. In the context of Markov random fields, the goal of a high-order inference task is to maximize a score function on the space of labels, and the score function can be decomposed into sum of unary and high-order potentials. We apply a generative model approach to study the problem of high-order inference, and provide a two-stage convex optimization algorithm for exact label recovery. We also provide a new class of hypergraph structural properties related to hyperedge expansion that drives the success in general high-order inference problems. Finally, we connect the performance of our algorithm and the hyperedge expansion property using a novel hypergraph Cheeger-type inequality.