ICLR 2026 Papers

The Wasserstein–Fisher–Rao (WFR) metric extends dynamic optimal transport (OT) by coupling displacement with change of mass, providing a principled geometry for modeling unbalanced snapshot dynamics. Existing WFR solvers, however, are often unstable, computationally expensive, and difficult to scale. Here we introduce **WFR Flow Matching (WFR-FM)**, a simulation-free training algorithm that unifies flow matching with dynamic unbalanced OT. Unlike classical flow matching which regresses only a transport vector field, WFR-FM simultaneously regresses a vector field for displacement and a scalar growth rate function for birth–death dynamics, yielding continuous flows under the WFR geometry. Theoretically, we show that minimizing the WFR-FM loss exactly recovers WFR geodesics. Empirically, WFR-FM yields more accurate and robust trajectory inference in single-cell biology, reconstructing consistent dynamics with proliferation and apoptosis, estimating time-varying growth fields, and applying to generative dynamics under imbalanced data. It outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in efficiency, stability, and reconstruction accuracy. Overall, WFR-FM establishes a unified and efficient paradigm for learning dynamical systems from unbalanced snapshots, where not only states but also mass evolve over time.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization is a defining hallmark of truly robust and reliable machine learning systems. Recently, it has been empirically observed that existing OOD generalization methods often underperform on real-world tabular data, where hidden confounding shifts drive distribution changes that boosting models handle more effectively. Part of boosting’s success is attributed to variance reduction, handling missing variables, feature selection, and connections to multicalibration. This paper uncovers a crucial reason behind its success in OOD generalization: boosting’s ability to infer stable environments robust to hidden confounding shifts and maximize predictive performance within those environments. This paper introduces an information-theoretic notion called $\alpha$-predictive sufficiency and formalizes its link to OOD generalization under hidden confounding. We show that boosting implicitly identifies suitable environments and produces an $\alpha$-predictive sufficient predictor. We validate our theoretical results through synthetic and real-world experiments and show that boosting achieves robust performance by identifying these environments and maximizing the association between predictions and true outcomes.

Learning with guidance has proven effective across a wide range of machine learning systems. Guidance may, for example, come from annotated datasets in supervised learning, pseudo-labels in semi-supervised learning, and expert demonstration policies in reinforcement learning. However, guidance signals can be noisy due to domain shifts and limited data availability and may not generalize well. Blindly trusting such signals when they are noisy, incomplete, or misaligned with the target domain can lead to degraded performance. To address these challenges, we propose Adaptive Conformal Guidance (AdaConG), a simple yet effective approach that dynamically modulates the influence of guidance signals based on their associated uncertainty, quantified via split conformal prediction (CP). By adaptively adjusting to guidance uncertainty, AdaConG enables models to reduce reliance on potentially misleading signals and enhance learning performance. We validate AdaConG across diverse tasks, including knowledge distillation, semi-supervised image classification, gridworld navigation, and autonomous driving. Experimental results demonstrate that AdaConG improves performance and robustness under imperfect guidance, e.g., in gridworld navigation, it accelerates convergence and achieves over $\times 6$ higher rewards than the best-performing baseline. These results highlight AdaConG as a broadly applicable solution for learning under uncertainty.

In many tabular regression tasks, the relationships between covariates and response can often be approximated as linear only within localized regions of the input space; a single global linear model therefore fails to capture these local relationships. Conventional Clusterwise Linear Regression (CLR) mitigates this issue by learning $K$ local regressors. However, existing algorithms either optimize latent binary indicators, (i) providing no explicit rule for assigning an $\textit{unseen}$ covariate vector to a cluster at test time, or rely on heuristic mixture of experts approaches, (ii) lacking convergence guarantees. To address these limitations, we propose $\textit{covariate-guided}$ CLR, an end-to-end framework that jointly learns an assignment function and $K$ linear regressors within a single gradient-based optimization loop. During training, a proxy network iteratively predicts coefficient vectors for inputs, and hard vector quantization assigns samples to their nearest codebook regressors. This alternating minimization procedure yields monotone descent of the empirical risk, converges under mild assumptions, and enjoys a PAC-style excess-risk bound. By treating the covariate data from all clusters as a single concatenated design matrix, we derive an $F$-test statistic from a nested linear model, quantitatively characterizing the effective model complexity. As $K$ varies, our method spans the spectrum from a single global linear model to instance-wise fits. Experimental results show that our method exactly reconstructs synthetic piecewise-linear surfaces, achieves accuracy comparable to strong black-box models on standard tabular benchmarks, and consistently outperforms existing CLR and mixture-of-experts approaches.

We study sparse recovery when observations come from mixed-quality sources: a small collection of high-quality measurements with small noise variance and a larger collection of lower-quality measurements with higher variance. For this heterogeneous-noise setting, we establish sample-size conditions for information-theoretic and algorithmic recovery. On the information-theoretic side, we show that $(n_1, n_2)$ must satisfy a linear trade-off defining the _Price of Quality_: the number of low-quality samples needed to replace one high-quality sample. In the agnostic setting, where the decoder is completely agnostic to the quality of the data, it is uniformly bounded, and in particular one high-quality sample is never worth more than two low-quality samples. In the informed setting, where the decoder is informed of per-sample variances, the price of quality can grow arbitrarily large. On the algorithmic side, we analyze the LASSO in the agnostic setting and show that the recovery threshold matches the homogeneous-noise case and only depends on the average noise level, revealing a striking robustness of computational recovery to data heterogeneity. Together, these results give the first conditions for sparse recovery with mixed-quality data and expose a fundamental difference between how the information-theoretic and algorithmic thresholds adapt to changes in data quality.

Machine learning (ML)-based malware detection systems often fail to account for the dynamic nature of real-world training and test data distributions. In practice, these distributions evolve due to frequent changes in the Android ecosystem, adversarial development of new malware families, and the continuous emergence of both benign and malicious applications. Prior studies have shown that such concept drift—distributional shifts in benign and malicious samples, leads to significant degradation in detection performance over time. Despite the practical importance of this issue, existing datasets are often outdated and limited in temporal scope, diversity of malware families, and sample scale, making them insufficient for the systematic evaluation of concept drift in malware detection. To address this gap, we present LAMDA, the largest and most temporally diverse Android malware benchmark to date, designed specifically for concept drift analysis. LAMDA spans 12 years (2013–2025, excluding 2015), includes over 1 million samples (approximately 37\% labeled as malware), and covers 1,380 malware families and 150,000 singleton samples, reflecting the natural distribution and evolution of real-world Android applications. We empirically demonstrate LAMDA's utility by quantifying the performance degradation of standard ML models over time and analyzing feature stability across years. As the most comprehensive Android malware dataset to date, LAMDA enables in-depth research into temporal drift, generalization, explainability, and evolving detection challenges.

We study the problem of constructing $(1+\varepsilon)$-coresets for Euclidean $(k,z)$-clustering in the distributed setting, where $n$ data points are partitioned across $s$ sites. We focus on two prominent communication models: the coordinator model and the blackboard model. In the coordinator model, we design a protocol that achieves a $(1+\varepsilon)$-strong coreset with total communication complexity $\tilde{O}\left(sk + \frac{dk}{\min(\varepsilon^4,\varepsilon^{2+z})} + dk\log(n\Delta)\right)$ bits, improving upon prior work (Chen et al., NeurIPS 2016) by eliminating the need to communicate explicit point coordinates in-the-clear across all servers. In the blackboard model, we further reduce the communication complexity to $\tilde{O}\left(s\log(n\Delta) + dk\log(n\Delta) + \frac{dk}{\min(\varepsilon^4,\varepsilon^{2+z})}\right)$ bits, achieving better bounds than previous approaches while upgrading from constant-factor to $(1+\varepsilon)$-approximation guarantees. Our techniques combine new strategies for constant-factor approximation with efficient coreset constructions and compact encoding schemes, leading to optimal protocols that match both the communication costs of the best-known offline coreset constructions and existing lower bounds (Chen et al., NeurIPS 2016, Huang et. al., STOC 2024), up to polylogarithmic factors.

Simulation provides a cost-effective and flexible platform for data generation and policy learning to develop robotic systems. However, bridging the gap between simulation and real-world dynamics remains a significant challenge, especially in physical parameter identification. In this work, we introduce a real-to-sim-to-real engine that leverages the Gaussian Splat representations to build a differentiable engine, enabling object mass identification from real-world visual observations and robot control signals, while enabling grasping policy learning simultaneously. Through optimizing the mass of the manipulated object, our method automatically builds high-fidelity and physically plausible digital twins. Additionally, we propose a novel approach to train force-aware grasping policies from limited data by transferring feasible human demonstrations into simulated robot demonstrations. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that our engine achieves accurate and robust performance in mass identification across various object geometries and mass values. Those optimized mass values facilitate force-aware policy learning, achieving superior and high performance in object grasping, effectively reducing the sim-to-real gap. Our code is included in the Supplementary Material and will be open source to facilitate reproducibility. Anonymous project page is available at https://robot-drex-engine.github.io.

Given the query, key and value matrices $Q, K, V\in \mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$, the attention matrix is defined as $\mathrm{Att}(Q, K, V)=D^{-1}AV$ where $A=\exp(QK^\top/\sqrt{d})$ with $\exp(\cdot)$ applied entrywise, $D=\mathrm{diag}(A{\bf 1}_n)$. The attention matrix is the backbone of modern transformers and large language models, but explicitly forming the softmax matrix $D^{-1}A$ incurs $\Omega(n^2)$, motivating numerous approximation schemes that reduce runtime to $\widetilde O(nd)$ via sparsity or low-rank factorization. We propose a quantum data structure that approximates any row of $\mathrm{Att}(Q, K, V)$ using only row queries to $Q, K, V$. Our algorithm preprocesses these matrices in $\widetilde{O}\left( \epsilon^{-1} n^{0.5} \left( s_\lambda^{2.5} + s_\lambda^{1.5} d + \alpha^{0.5} d \right) \right)$ time, where $\epsilon$ is the target accuracy, $s_\lambda$ is the $\lambda$-statistical dimension of the exponential kernel defined by $Q$ and $K$, and $\alpha$ measures the row distortion of $V$ that is at most $d/{\rm srank}(V)$, the stable rank of $V$. Each row query can be answered in $\widetilde{O}(s_\lambda^2 + s_\lambda d)$ time. To our knowledge, this is the first quantum data structure that approximates rows of the attention matrix in sublinear time with respect to $n$. Our approach relies on a quantum Nystr{\"o}m approximation of the exponential kernel, quantum multivariate mean estimation for computing $D$, and quantum leverage score sampling for the multiplication with $V$.

Learning a human-like driving policy from large-scale driving demonstrations is promising, but the uncertainty and non-deterministic nature of planning make it challenging. Existing learning-based planning methods follow a deterministic paradigm to directly regress the action, failing to cope with the uncertainty problem. In this work, we propose a probabilistic planning model for end-to-end autonomous driving, termed VADv2. We resort to a probabilistic field function to model the mapping from the action space to the probabilistic distribution. Since the planning action space is a high-dimensional continuous spatiotemporal space and hard to tackle, we first discretize the planning action space to a large planning vocabulary and then tokenize the planning vocabulary into planning tokens. Planning tokens interact with scene tokens and output the probabilistic distribution of action. Mass driving demonstrations are leveraged to supervise the distribution. VADv2 achieves state-of-the-art closed-loop performance on the CARLA Town05 benchmark, significantly outperforming all existing methods. We also provide comprehensive evaluations on the NAVSIM dataset and a large-scale 3DGS-based benchmark, demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world applications. Code will be released to facilitate future research.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in time-varying settings is particularly challenging, as the probability of observing certain treatment sequences decreases exponentially with longer prediction horizons. Thus, the observed data contain little support for many plausible treatment sequences, which creates severe overlap problems. Existing meta-learners for the time-varying setting typically assume adequate treatment overlap, and thus suffer from exploding estimation variance when the overlap is low. To address this problem, we introduce a novel overlap-weighted orthogonal WO meta-learner for estimating HTEs that targets regions in the observed data with high probability of receiving the interventional treatment sequences. This offers a fully data-driven approach through which our WO-learner can counteract instabilities as in existing meta-learners and thus obtain more reliable HTE estimates. Methodologically, we develop a novel Neyman-orthogonal population risk function that minimizes the overlap-weighted oracle risk. We show that our WO-learner has the favorable property of Neyman-orthogonality, meaning that it is robust against misspecification in the nuisance functions. Further, our WO-learner is fully model-agnostic and can be applied to any machine learning model. Through extensive experiments with both transformer and LSTM backbones, we demonstrate the benefits of our novel WO-learner.

We introduce spatially informed variational autoencoders (SI-VAE) as self-supervised deep-learning models that use stochastic point processes to predict spatial organization patterns from images. Existing approaches to learning visual representations based on variational autoencoders (VAE) struggle to capture spatial correlations between objects or events, focusing instead on pixel intensities. We address this limitation by incorporating a point-process likelihood, derived from the Papangelou conditional intensity, as a self-supervision target. This results in a hybrid model that learns statistically interpretable representations of spatial localization patterns and enables zero-shot conditional simulation directly from images. Experiments with synthetic images show that SI-VAE improve the classification accuracy of attractive, repulsive, and uncorrelated point patterns from 48% (VAE) to over 80% in the worst case and 90% in the best case, while generalizing to unseen data. We apply SI-VAE to a real-world microscopy data set, demonstrating its use for studying the spatial organization of proteins in human cells and for using the representations in downstream statistical analysis.