ICLR 2025 Papers

We present unexpected findings from a large-scale benchmark study evaluating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation algorithms. By running 16 modern CATE models across 43,200 datasets, we find that: (a) 62\% of CATE estimates have a higher Mean Squared Error (MSE) than a trivial zero-effect predictor, rendering them ineffective; (b) in datasets with at least one useful CATE estimate, 80\% still have higher MSE than a constant-effect model; and (c) Orthogonality-based models outperform other models only 30\% of the time, despite widespread optimism about their performance. These findings expose significant limitations in current CATE models and suggest ample opportunities for further research. Our findings stem from a novel application of \textit{observational sampling}, originally developed to evaluate Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimates from observational methods with experiment data. To adapt observational sampling for CATE evaluation, we introduce a statistical parameter, $Q$, equal to MSE minus a constant and preserves the ranking of models by their MSE. We then derive a family of sample statistics, collectively called $\hat{Q}$, that can be computed from real-world data. We prove that $\hat{Q}$ is a consistent estimator of $Q$ under mild technical conditions. When used in observational sampling, $\hat{Q}$ is unbiased and asymptotically selects the model with the smallest MSE. To ensure the benchmark reflects real-world heterogeneity, we handpick datasets where outcomes come from field rather than simulation. By combining the new observational sampling method, new statistics, and real-world datasets, the benchmark provides a unique perspective on CATE estimator performance and uncover gaps in capturing real-world heterogeneity.

Understanding whether the data generative process follows causal or anticausal relations is important for many applications. Existing causal discovery methods struggle with high-dimensional perceptual data such as images. Moreover, they require well-labeled data, which may not be feasible due to measurement error. In this paper, we propose a robust method to detect whether the data generative process is causal or anticausal. To determine the causal or anticausal relation, we identify an asymmetric property: under the causal relation, the instance distribution does not contain information about the noisy class-posterior distribution. We also propose a practical method to verify this via a noise injection approach. Our method is robust to label errors and is designed to handle both large-scale and high-dimensional datasets effectively. Both theoretical analyses and empirical results on a variety of datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in determining the causal or anticausal direction of the data generative process.

We introduce methods for discovering and applying **sparse feature circuits**. These are causally implicated subnetworks of human-interpretable features for explaining language model behaviors. Circuits identified in prior work consist of polysemantic and difficult-to-interpret units like attention heads or neurons, rendering them unsuitable for many downstream applications. In contrast, sparse feature circuits enable detailed understanding of unanticipated mechanisms in neural networks. Because they are based on fine-grained units, sparse feature circuits are useful for downstream tasks: We introduce SHIFT, where we improve the generalization of a classifier by ablating features that a human judges to be task-irrelevant. Finally, we demonstrate an entirely unsupervised and scalable interpretability pipeline by discovering thousands of sparse feature circuits for automatically discovered model behaviors.

Sequential Recommendation (SR) task involves predicting the next item a user is likely to interact with, given their past interactions. The SR models examine the sequence of a user's actions to discern more complex behavioral patterns and temporal dynamics. Recent research demonstrates the great impact of LLMs on sequential recommendation systems, either viewing sequential recommendation as language modeling or serving as the backbone for user representation. Although these methods deliver outstanding performance, there is scant evidence of the necessity of a large language model and how large the language model is needed, especially in the sequential recommendation scene. Meanwhile, due to the huge size of LLMs, it is inefficient and impractical to apply a LLM-based model in real-world platforms that often need to process billions of traffic logs daily. In this paper, we explore the influence of LLMs' depth by conducting extensive experiments on large-scale industry datasets. Surprisingly, our motivational experiments reveal that most intermediate layers of LLMs are redundant, indicating that pruning the remaining layers can still maintain strong performance. Motivated by this insight, we empower small language models for SR, namely SLMRec, which adopt a simple yet effective knowledge distillation method. Moreover, SLMRec is orthogonal to other post-training efficiency techniques, such as quantization and pruning, so that they can be leveraged in combination. Comprehensive experimental results illustrate that the proposed SLMRec model attains the best performance using only 13\% of the parameters found in LLM-based recommendation models while simultaneously achieving up to 6.6x and 8.0x speedups in training and inference time costs, respectively. Besides, we provide a theoretical justification for why small language models can perform comparably to large language models in SR.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based generative recommendation has achieved notable success, yet its practical deployment is costly particularly due to excessive inference latency caused by autoregressive decoding. For lossless LLM decoding acceleration, Speculative Decoding (SD) has emerged as a promising solution. However, applying SD to generative recommendation presents unique challenges due to the requirement of generating top-K items (i.e., K distinct token sequences) as a recommendation list by beam search. This leads to more stringent verification in SD, where all the top-K sequences from the target LLM must be successfully drafted by the draft model at each decoding step. To alleviate this, we consider 1) boosting top-K sequence alignment between the draft model and the target LLM, and 2) relaxing the verification strategy to reduce trivial LLM calls. To this end, we propose an alignment framework named AtSpeed, which presents the AtSpeed-S optimization objective for top-K alignment under the strict top-K verification. Moreover, we introduce a relaxed sampling verification strategy that allows high-probability non-top-K drafted sequences to be accepted, significantly reducing LLM calls. Correspondingly, we propose AtSpeed-R for top-K alignment under this relaxed sampling verification. Empirical results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that AtSpeed significantly accelerates LLM-based generative recommendation, e.g., near 2x speedup under strict top-K verification and up to 2.5x speedup under relaxed sampling verification. The codes and datasets are available at~\url{https://github.com/Linxyhaha/AtSpeed}.

Practical and ethical constraints often require the use of observational data for causal inference, particularly in medicine and social sciences. Yet, observational datasets are prone to confounding, potentially compromising the validity of causal conclusions. While it is possible to correct for biases if the underlying causal graph is known, this is rarely a feasible ask in practical scenarios. A common strategy is to adjust for all available covariates, yet this approach can yield biased treatment effect estimates, especially when post-treatment or unobserved variables are present. We propose RAMEN, an algorithm that produces unbiased treatment effect estimates by leveraging the heterogeneity of multiple data sources without the need to know or learn the underlying causal graph. Notably, RAMEN achieves *doubly robust identification*: it can identify the treatment effect whenever the causal parents of the treatment or those of the outcome are observed, and the node whose parents are observed satisfies an invariance assumption. Empirical evaluations across synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets show that our approach significantly outperforms existing methods.

Real-time monitoring in modern medical research introduces functional longitudinal data, characterized by continuous-time measurements of outcomes, treatments, and confounders. This complexity leads to uncountably infinite treatment-confounder feedbacks, which traditional causal inference methodologies cannot handle. Inspired by the coarsened data framework, we adopt stochastic process theory, measure theory, and net convergence to propose a nonparametric causal identification framework. This framework generalizes classical g-computation, inverse probability weighting, and doubly robust formulas, accommodating time-varying outcomes subject to mortality and censoring for functional longitudinal data. We examine our framework through Monte Carlo simulations. Our approach addresses significant gaps in current methodologies, providing a solution for functional longitudinal data and paving the way for future estimation work in this domain.

Mechanistic interpretability has made great strides in identifying neural network features (e.g., directions in hidden activation space) that mediate concepts (e.g., *the birth year of a Nobel laureate*) and enable predictable manipulation. Distributed alignment search (DAS) leverages supervision from counterfactual data to learn concept features within hidden states, but DAS assumes we can afford to conduct a brute force search over potential feature locations. To address this, we present HyperDAS, a transformer-based hypernetwork architecture that (1) automatically locates the token-positions of the residual stream that a concept is realized in and (2) learns features of those residual stream vectors for the concept. In experiments with Llama3-8B, HyperDAS achieves state-of-the-art performance on the RAVEL benchmark for disentangling concepts in hidden states. In addition, we review the design decisions we made to mitigate the concern that HyperDAS (like all powerful interpretabilty methods) might inject new information into the target model rather than faithfully interpreting it.

As AI systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes applications, ensuring their interpretability is essential. Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) aims to reverse-engineer neural networks by extracting human-understandable algorithms embedded within their structures to explain their behavior. This work systematically examines a fundamental question: for a fixed behavior to explain, and under the criteria that MI sets for itself, are we guaranteed a unique explanation? Drawing an analogy with the concept of identifiability in statistics, which ensures the uniqueness of parameters inferred from data under specific modeling assumptions, we speak about the identifiability of explanations produced by MI. We identify two broad strategies to produce MI explanations: (i) "where-then-what", which first identifies a subset of the network (a circuit) that replicates the model's behavior before deriving its interpretation, and (ii) "what-then-where", which begins with candidate explanatory algorithms and searches in the activation subspaces of the neural model where the candidate algorithm may be implemented, relying on notions of causal alignment between the states of the candidate algorithm and the neural network. We systematically test the identifiability of both strategies using simple tasks (learning Boolean functions) and multi-layer perceptrons small enough to allow a complete enumeration of candidate explanations. Our experiments reveal overwhelming evidence of non-identifiability in all cases: multiple circuits can replicate model behavior, multiple interpretations can exist for a circuit, several algorithms can be causally aligned with the neural network, and a single algorithm can be causally aligned with different subspaces of the network. We discuss whether the unicity intuition is necessary. One could adopt a pragmatic stance, requiring explanations only to meet predictive and/or manipulability standards. However, if unicity is considered essential, e.g., to provide a sense of understanding, we also discuss less permissive criteria. Finally, we also refer to the inner interpretability framework that demands explanations to be validated by multiple complementary criteria. This work aims to contribute constructively to the ongoing effort to formalize what we expect from explanations in AI.

Predicting the impact of genomic and drug perturbations in cellular function is crucial for understanding gene functions and drug effects, ultimately leading to improved therapies. To this end, Causal Representation Learning (CRL) constitutes one of the most promising approaches, as it aims to identify the latent factors that causally govern biological systems, thus facilitating the prediction of the effect of unseen perturbations. Yet, current CRL methods fail in reconciling their principled latent representations with known biological processes, leading to models that are not interpretable. To address this major issue, in this work we present SENA-discrepancy-VAE, a model based on the recently proposed CRL method discrepancy-VAE, that produces representations where each latent factor can be interpreted as the (linear) combination of the activity of a (learned) set of biological processes. To this extent, we present an encoder, SENA-$\delta$, that efficiently compute and map biological processes' activity levels to the latent causal factors. We show that SENA-discrepancy-VAE achieves predictive performances on unseen combinations of interventions that are comparable with its original, non-interpretable counterpart, while inferring causal latent factors that are biologically meaningful.

Temporally causal representation learning aims to identify the latent causal process from time series observations, but most methods require the assumption that the latent causal processes do not have instantaneous relations. Although some recent methods achieve identifiability in the instantaneous causality case, they require either interventions on the latent variables or grouping of the observations, which are in general difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose an \textbf{ID}entification framework for instantane\textbf{O}us \textbf{L}atent dynamics (\textbf{IDOL}) by imposing a sparse influence constraint that the latent causal processes have sparse time-delayed and instantaneous relations. Specifically, we establish identifiability results of the latent causal process based on sufficient variability and the sparse influence constraint by employing contextual information of time series data. Based on these theories, we incorporate a temporally variational inference architecture to estimate the latent variables and a gradient-based sparsity regularization to identify the latent causal process. Experimental results on simulation datasets illustrate that our method can identify the latent causal process. Furthermore, evaluations on multiple human motion forecasting benchmarks with instantaneous dependencies indicate the effectiveness of our method in real-world settings.