ICLR 2024 Papers

International Conference on Learning Representations

Decision breakdown

2,260papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    863.8%
  • Spotlight
    36716.2%
  • Poster
    1,80780.0%

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Topic: Multimodal LLMs · 321 papers · Reset filters

Knowledge Fusion of Large Language Models

Fanqi Wan, Xinting Huang, Deng Cai, Xiaojun Quan, Wei Bi, Shuming Shi

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While training large language models (LLMs) from scratch can generate models with distinct functionalities and strengths, it comes at significant costs and may result in redundant capabilities. Alternatively, a cost-effective and compelling approach is to merge existing pre-trained LLMs into a more potent model. However, due to the varying architectures of these LLMs, directly blending their weights is impractical. In this paper, we introduce the notion of knowledge fusion for LLMs, aimed at combining the capabilities of existing LLMs and transferring them into a single LLM. By leveraging the generative distributions of source LLMs, we externalize their collective knowledge and unique strengths, thereby potentially elevating the capabilities of the target model beyond those of any individual source LLM. We validate our approach using three popular LLMs with different architectures—Llama-2, MPT, and OpenLLaMA—across various benchmarks and tasks. Our findings confirm that the fusion of LLMs can improve the performance of the target model across a range of capabilities such as reasoning, commonsense, and code generation. Our code, model weights, and data are public at \url{https://github.com/fanqiwan/FuseLLM}.

Poster
Look, Remember and Reason: Grounded Reasoning in Videos with Language Models

Apratim Bhattacharyya, Sunny Panchal, Reza Pourreza, Mingu Lee, Pulkit Madan, Roland Memisevic

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Multi-modal language models (LM) have recently shown promising performance in high-level reasoning tasks on videos. However, existing methods still fall short in tasks like causal or compositional spatiotemporal reasoning over actions, in which model predictions need to be grounded in fine-grained low-level details, such as object motions and object interactions. In this work, we propose training an LM end-to-end on low-level surrogate tasks, including object detection, re-identification, and tracking, to endow the model with the required low-level visual capabilities. We show that a two-stream video encoder with spatiotemporal attention is effective at capturing the required static and motion-based cues in the video. By leveraging the LM's ability to perform the low-level surrogate tasks, we can cast reasoning in videos as the three-step process of *Look, Remember, Reason*, wherein visual information is extracted using low-level visual skills step-by-step and then integrated to arrive at a final answer. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework on diverse visual reasoning tasks from the ACRE, CATER, Something-Else and STAR datasets. Our approach is trainable end-to-end and surpasses state-of-the-art task-specific methods across these tasks by a large margin.

Poster
Towards Foundation Models for Knowledge Graph Reasoning

Mikhail Galkin, Xinyu Yuan, Hesham Mostafa, Jian Tang, Zhaocheng Zhu

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Foundation models in language and vision have the ability to run inference on any textual and visual inputs thanks to the transferable representations such as a vocabulary of tokens in language. Knowledge graphs (KGs) have different entity and relation vocabularies that generally do not overlap. The key challenge of designing foundation models on KGs is to learn such transferable representations that enable inference on any graph with arbitrary entity and relation vocabularies. In this work, we make a step towards such foundation models and present ULTRA, an approach for learning universal and transferable graph representations. ULTRA builds relational representations as a function conditioned on their interactions. Such a conditioning strategy allows a pre-trained ULTRA model to inductively generalize to any unseen KG with any relation vocabulary and to be fine-tuned on any graph. Conducting link prediction experiments on 57 different KGs, we find that the zero-shot inductive inference performance of a single pre-trained ULTRA model on unseen graphs of various sizes is often on par or better than strong baselines trained on specific graphs. Fine-tuning further boosts the performance.

Poster
ContextRef: Evaluating Referenceless Metrics for Image Description Generation

Elisa Kreiss, Eric Zelikman, Christopher Potts, Nick Haber

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Referenceless metrics (e.g., CLIPScore) use pretrained vision--language models to assess image descriptions directly without costly ground-truth reference texts. Such methods can facilitate rapid progress, but only if they truly align with human preference judgments. In this paper, we introduce ContextRef, a benchmark for assessing referenceless metrics for such alignment. ContextRef has two components: human ratings along a variety of established quality dimensions, and ten diverse robustness checks designed to uncover fundamental weaknesses. A crucial aspect of ContextRef is that images and descriptions are presented in context, reflecting prior work showing that context is important for description quality. Using ContextRef, we assess a variety of pretrained models, scoring functions, and techniques for incorporating context. None of the methods is successful with ContextRef, but we show that careful fine-tuning yields substantial improvements. ContextRef remains a challenging benchmark though, in large part due to the challenge of context dependence.

Poster
The Effect of Intrinsic Dataset Properties on Generalization: Unraveling Learning Differences Between Natural and Medical Images

Nicholas Konz, Maciej A Mazurowski

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This paper investigates discrepancies in how neural networks learn from different imaging domains, which are commonly overlooked when adopting computer vision techniques from the domain of natural images to other specialized domains such as medical images. Recent works have found that the generalization error of a trained network typically increases with the intrinsic dimension ($d_{data}$) of its training set. Yet, the steepness of this relationship varies significantly between medical (radiological) and natural imaging domains, with no existing theoretical explanation. We address this gap in knowledge by establishing and empirically validating a generalization scaling law with respect to $d_{data}$, and propose that the substantial scaling discrepancy between the two considered domains may be at least partially attributed to the higher intrinsic ``label sharpness'' ($K_\mathcal{F}$) of medical imaging datasets, a metric which we propose. Next, we demonstrate an additional benefit of measuring the label sharpness of a training set: it is negatively correlated with the trained model's adversarial robustness, which notably leads to models for medical images having a substantially higher vulnerability to adversarial attack. Finally, we extend our $d_{data}$ formalism to the related metric of learned representation intrinsic dimension ($d_{repr}$), derive a generalization scaling law with respect to $d_{repr}$, and show that $d_{data}$ serves as an upper bound for $d_{repr}$. Our theoretical results are supported by thorough experiments with six models and eleven natural and medical imaging datasets over a range of training set sizes. Our findings offer insights into the influence of intrinsic dataset properties on generalization, representation learning, and robustness in deep neural networks. *Code link: https://github.com/mazurowski-lab/intrinsic-properties*

Poster
Efficient Modulation for Vision Networks

Xu Ma, Xiyang Dai, Jianwei Yang, Bin Xiao, Yinpeng Chen, Yun Fu, Lu Yuan

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In this work, we present efficient modulation, a novel design for efficient vision networks. We revisit the modulation mechanism, which operates input through convolutional context modeling and feature projection layers, and fuses features via element-wise multiplication and an MLP block. We demonstrate that the abstracted modulation mechanism is particularly well suited for efficient networks and further tailor the modulation design by proposing the efficient modulation (EfficientMod) block, which is considered the essential building block for our networks. Bene- fiting from the prominent representational ability of modulation mechanism and the efficiency of efficient modulation design, our network can accomplish better accuracy-efficiency trade-offs and set new state-of-the-art performance for efficient networks. When integrating EfficientMod block with the vanilla self-attention block, we obtain the hybrid architecture and further improve the performance without sacrificing the efficiency. We carry out comprehensive experiments to verify EfficientMod’s performance. With fewer parameters, our EfficientMod-s performs 0.6 top-1 accuracy better than the prior state-of-the-art approach EfficientFormerV2-s2 without any training tricks and is 25% faster on GPU. Additionally, our method presents a notable improvement in downstream tasks, outperforming EfficientFormerV2-s by 3.6 mIoU on the ADE20K benchmark. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/ma-xu/EfficientMod.

Poster
ECoFLaP: Efficient Coarse-to-Fine Layer-Wise Pruning for Vision-Language Models

Yi-Lin Sung, Jaehong Yoon, Mohit Bansal

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Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) can understand the world comprehensively by integrating rich information from different modalities, achieving remarkable performance improvements on various multimodal downstream tasks. However, deploying LVLMs is often problematic due to their massive computational/energy costs and carbon consumption, making it infeasible to adopt conventional iterative global pruning, which is costly due to computing the Hessian matrix of the entire large model for sparsification. Alternatively, several studies have recently proposed layer-wise pruning approaches to avoid the expensive computation of global pruning and efficiently compress model weights according to their importance within a layer. However, these methods often suffer from suboptimal model compression due to their lack of a global perspective. To address this limitation in recent efficient pruning methods for large models, we propose Efficient Coarse-to-Fine Layer-Wise Pruning (ECoFLaP), a two-stage coarse-to-fine weight pruning approach for LVLMs. We first determine the sparsity ratios of different layers or blocks by leveraging the global importance score, which is efficiently computed based on the zeroth-order approximation of the global model gradients. Then, the multimodal model performs layer-wise unstructured weight pruning. We validate our proposed method across various multi-modal and single-modal models and datasets, demonstrating significant performance improvements over prevalent pruning techniques in the high-sparsity regime.

Poster
Scaling Laws for Sparsely-Connected Foundation Models

Elias Frantar, Carlos Riquelme Ruiz, Neil Houlsby, Dan Alistarh, Utku Evci

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We explore the impact of parameter sparsity on the scaling behavior of Transformers trained on massive datasets (i.e., "foundation models"), in both vision and language domains. In this setting, we identify the first scaling law describing the relationship between weight sparsity, number of non-zero parameters, and amount of training data, which we validate empirically across model and data scales; on ViT/JFT-4B and T5/C4. These results allow us to characterize the "optimal sparsity", the sparsity level which yields the best performance for a given effective model size and training budget. For a fixed number of non-zero parameters, we identify that the optimal sparsity increases with the amount of data used for training. We also extend our study to different sparsity structures (such as the hardware-friendly n:m pattern) and strategies (such as starting from a pretrained dense model). Our findings shed light on the power and limitations of weight sparsity across various parameter and computational settings, offering both theoretical understanding and practical implications for leveraging sparsity towards computational efficiency improvements. We provide pruning and scaling law fitting code at: github.com/google-research/jaxpruner/tree/main/jaxpruner/projects/bigsparse.

Spotlight
EventRPG: Event Data Augmentation with Relevance Propagation Guidance

Mingyuan Sun, Donghao Zhang, Zongyuan Ge, WANG Jiaxu, Jia Li, Zheng Fang, Renjing Xu

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Event camera, a novel bio-inspired vision sensor, has drawn a lot of attention for its low latency, low power consumption, and high dynamic range. Currently, overfitting remains a critical problem in event-based classification tasks for Spiking Neural Network (SNN) due to its relatively weak spatial representation capability. Data augmentation is a simple but efficient method to alleviate overfitting and improve the generalization ability of neural networks, and saliency-based augmentation methods are proven to be effective in the image processing field. However, there is no approach available for extracting saliency maps from SNNs. Therefore, for the first time, we present Spiking Layer-Time-wise Relevance Propagation rule (SLTRP) and Spiking Layer-wise Relevance Propagation rule (SLRP) in order for SNN to generate stable and accurate CAMs and saliency maps. Based on this, we propose EventRPG, which leverages relevance propagation on the spiking neural network for more efficient augmentation. Our proposed method has been evaluated on several SNN structures, achieving state-of-the-art performance in object recognition tasks including N-Caltech101, CIFAR10-DVS, with accuracies of 85.62% and 85.55%, as well as action recognition task SL-Animals with an accuracy of 91.59%. Our code is available at https://github.com/myuansun/EventRPG.

Poster
Strategic Preys Make Acute Predators: Enhancing Camouflaged Object Detectors by Generating Camouflaged Objects

Chunming He, Kai Li, Yachao Zhang, Yulun Zhang, Chenyu You, Zhenhua Guo, Xiu Li, Martin Danelljan, Fisher Yu

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Camouflaged object detection (COD) is the challenging task of identifying camouflaged objects visually blended into surroundings. Albeit achieving remarkable success, existing COD detectors still struggle to obtain precise results in some challenging cases. To handle this problem, we draw inspiration from the prey-vs-predator game that leads preys to develop better camouflage and predators to acquire more acute vision systems and develop algorithms from both the prey side and the predator side. On the prey side, we propose an adversarial training framework, Camouflageator, which introduces an auxiliary generator to generate more camouflaged objects that are harder for a COD method to detect. Camouflageator trains the generator and detector in an adversarial way such that the enhanced auxiliary generator helps produce a stronger detector. On the predator side, we introduce a novel COD method, called Internal Coherence and Edge Guidance (ICEG), which introduces a camouflaged feature coherence module to excavate the internal coherence of camouflaged objects, striving to obtain more complete segmentation results. Additionally, ICEG proposes a novel edge-guided separated calibration module to remove false predictions to avoid obtaining ambiguous boundaries. Extensive experiments show that ICEG outperforms existing COD detectors and Camouflageator is flexible to improve various COD detectors, including ICEG, which brings state-of-the-art COD performance.

Poster
InstructDET: Diversifying Referring Object Detection with Generalized Instructions

Ronghao Dang, Jiangyan Feng, Haodong Zhang, Chongjian GE, Lin Song, Lijun GONG, Chengju Liu, Qijun Chen, Feng Zhu, Rui Zhao, Yibing Song

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We propose InstructDET, a data-centric method for referring object detection (ROD) that localizes target objects based on user instructions. While deriving from referring expressions (REC), the instructions we leverage are greatly diversified to encompass common user intentions related to object detection. For one image, we produce tremendous instructions that refer to every single object and different combinations of multiple objects. Each instruction and its corresponding object bounding boxes (bbxs) constitute one training data pair. In order to encompass common detection expressions, we involve emerging vision-language model (VLM) and large language model (LLM) to generate instructions guided by text prompts and object bbxs, as the generalizations of foundation models are effective to produce human-like expressions (e.g., describing object property, category, and relationship). We name our constructed dataset as InDET. It contains images, bbxs and generalized instructions that are from foundation models. Our InDET is developed from existing REC datasets and object detection datasets, with the expanding potential that any image with object bbxs can be incorporated through using our InstructDET method. By using our InDET dataset, we show that a conventional ROD model surpasses existing methods on standard REC datasets and our InDET test set. Our data-centric method InstructDET, with automatic data expansion by leveraging foundation models, directs a promising field that ROD can be greatly diversified to execute common object detection instructions.

Poster
Kosmos-G: Generating Images in Context with Multimodal Large Language Models

Xichen Pan, Li Dong, Shaohan Huang, Zhiliang Peng, Wenhu Chen, Furu Wei

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Recent advancements in subject-driven image generation have made significant strides. However, current methods still fall short in diverse application scenarios, as they require test-time tuning and cannot accept interleaved multi-image and text input. These limitations keep them far from the ultimate goal of "image as a foreign language in image generation." This paper presents Kosmos-G, a model that leverages the advanced multimodal perception capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to tackle the aforementioned challenge. Our approach aligns the output space of MLLM with CLIP using the textual modality as an anchor and performs compositional instruction tuning on curated data. Kosmos-G demonstrates an impressive capability of zero-shot subject-driven generation with interleaved multi-image and text input. Notably, the score distillation instruction tuning requires no modifications to the image decoder. This allows for a seamless substitution of CLIP and effortless integration with a myriad of U-Net techniques ranging from fine-grained controls to personalized image decoder variants. We posit Kosmos-G as an initial attempt towards the goal of "image as a foreign language in image generation."

Poster
Bongard-OpenWorld: Few-Shot Reasoning for Free-form Visual Concepts in the Real World

Rujie Wu, Xiaojian Ma, Zhenliang Zhang, Wei Wang, Qing Li, Song-Chun Zhu, Yizhou Wang

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We introduce Bongard-OpenWorld, a new benchmark for evaluating real-world few-shot reasoning for machine vision. It originates from the classical Bongard Problems (BPs): Given two sets of images (positive and negative), the model needs to identify the set that query images belong to by inducing the visual concepts, which is exclusively depicted by images from the positive set. Our benchmark inherits the few-shot concept induction of the original BPs while adding the two novel layers of challenge: 1) open-world free-form concepts, as the visual concepts in Bongard-OpenWorld are unique compositions of terms from an open vocabulary, ranging from object categories to abstract visual attributes and commonsense factual knowledge; 2) real-world images, as opposed to the synthetic diagrams used by many counterparts. In our exploration, Bongard-OpenWorld already imposes a significant challenge to current few-shot reasoning algorithms. We further investigate to which extent the recently introduced Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs) can solve our task, by directly probing VLMs, and combining VLMs and LLMs in an interactive reasoning scheme. We even conceived a neuro-symbolic reasoning approach that reconciles LLMs & VLMs with logical reasoning to emulate the human problem-solving process for Bongard Problems. However, none of these approaches manage to close the human-machine gap, as the best learner achieves 64% accuracy while human participants easily reach 91%. We hope Bongard-OpenWorld can help us better understand the limitations of current visual intelligence and facilitate future research on visual agents with stronger few-shot visual reasoning capabilities.

Poster
Adaptive Window Pruning for Efficient Local Motion Deblurring

Haoying Li, Jixin Zhao, Shangchen Zhou, Huajun Feng, Chongyi Li, Chen Change Loy

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Local motion blur commonly occurs in real-world photography due to the mixing between moving objects and stationary backgrounds during exposure. Existing image deblurring methods predominantly focus on global deblurring, inadvertently affecting the sharpness of backgrounds in locally blurred images and wasting unnecessary computation on sharp pixels, especially for high-resolution images. This paper aims to adaptively and efficiently restore high-resolution locally blurred images. We propose a local motion deblurring vision Transformer (LMD-ViT) built on adaptive window pruning Transformer blocks (AdaWPT). To focus deblurring on local regions and reduce computation, AdaWPT prunes unnecessary windows, only allowing the active windows to be involved in the deblurring processes. The pruning operation relies on the blurriness confidence predicted by a confidence predictor that is trained end-to-end using a reconstruction loss with Gumbel-Softmax re-parameterization and a pruning loss guided by annotated blur masks. Our method removes local motion blur effectively without distorting sharp regions, demonstrated by its exceptional perceptual and quantitative improvements (+0.28dB) compared to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, our approach substantially reduces FLOPs by 66% and achieves more than a twofold increase in inference speed compared to Transformer-based deblurring methods. We will make our code and annotated blur masks publicly available.

Poster
Label-free Node Classification on Graphs with Large Language Models (LLMs)

Zhikai Chen, Haitao Mao, Hongzhi Wen, Haoyu Han, Wei Jin, Haiyang Zhang, Hui Liu, Jiliang Tang

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In recent years, there have been remarkable advancements in node classification achieved by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, they necessitate abundant high-quality labels to ensure promising performance. In contrast, Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit impressive zero-shot proficiency on text-attributed graphs. Yet, they face challenges in efficiently processing structural data and suffer from high inference costs. In light of these observations, this work introduces a label-free node classification on graphs with LLMs pipeline, LLM-GNN. It amalgamates the strengths of both GNNs and LLMs while mitigating their limitations. Specifically, LLMs are leveraged to annotate a small portion of nodes and then GNNs are trained on LLMs' annotations to make predictions for the remaining large portion of nodes. The implementation of LLM-GNN faces a unique challenge: how can we actively select nodes for LLMs to annotate and consequently enhance the GNN training? How can we leverage LLMs to obtain annotations of high quality, representativeness, and diversity, thereby enhancing GNN performance with less cost? To tackle this challenge, we develop an annotation quality heuristic and leverage the confidence scores derived from LLMs to advanced node selection. Comprehensive experimental results validate the effectiveness of LLM-GNN. In particular, LLM-GNN can achieve an accuracy of 74.9\% on a vast-scale dataset \products with a cost less than 1 dollar.

Poster
DFormer: Rethinking RGBD Representation Learning for Semantic Segmentation

Bowen Yin, Xuying Zhang, Zhong-Yu Li, Li Liu, Ming-Ming Cheng, Qibin Hou

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We present DFormer, a novel RGB-D pretraining framework to learn transferable representations for RGB-D segmentation tasks. DFormer has two new key innovations: 1) Unlike previous works that encode RGB-D information with RGB pretrained backbone, we pretrain the backbone using image-depth pairs from ImageNet-1K, and thus the DFormer is endowed with the capacity to encode RGB-D representations; 2) DFormer comprises a sequence of RGB-D blocks, which are tailored for encoding both RGB and depth information through a novel building block design. DFormer avoids the mismatched encoding of the 3D geometry relationships in depth maps by RGB pretrained backbones, which widely lies in existing methods but has not been resolved. We finetune the pretrained DFormer on two popular RGB-D tasks, i.e., RGB-D semantic segmentation and RGB-D salient object detection, with a lightweight decoder head. Experimental results show that our DFormer achieves new state-of-the-art performance on these two tasks with less than half of the computational cost of the current best methods on two RGB-D semantic segmentation datasets and five RGB-D salient object detection datasets. Code will be made publicly available.

Poster
Dual Associated Encoder for Face Restoration

YU-JU TSAI, Yu-Lun Liu, Lu Qi, Kelvin C.K. Chan, Ming-Hsuan Yang

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Restoring facial details from low-quality (LQ) images has remained challenging due to the nature of the problem caused by various degradations in the wild. The codebook prior has been proposed to address the ill-posed problems by leveraging an autoencoder and learned codebook of high-quality (HQ) features, achieving remarkable quality. However, existing approaches in this paradigm frequently depend on a single encoder pre-trained on HQ data for restoring HQ images, disregarding the domain gap and distinct feature representations between LQ and HQ images. As a result, encoding LQ inputs with the same encoder could be insufficient, resulting in imprecise feature representation and leading to suboptimal performance. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel dual-branch framework named $\textit{DAEFR}$. Our method introduces an auxiliary LQ branch that extracts domain-specific information from the LQ inputs. Additionally, we incorporate association training to promote effective synergy between the two branches, enhancing code prediction and restoration quality. We evaluate the effectiveness of DAEFR on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating its superior performance in restoring facial details. Project page: https://liagm.github.io/DAEFR/

Poster
Can LLMs Keep a Secret? Testing Privacy Implications of Language Models via Contextual Integrity Theory

Niloofar Mireshghallah, Hyunwoo Kim, Xuhui Zhou, Yulia Tsvetkov, Maarten Sap, Reza Shokri, Yejin Choi

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Existing efforts on quantifying privacy implications for large language models (LLMs) solely focus on measuring leakage of training data. In this work, we shed light on the often-overlooked interactive settings where an LLM receives information from multiple sources and generates an output to be shared with other entities, creating the potential of exposing sensitive input data in inappropriate contexts. In these scenarios, humans nat- urally uphold privacy by choosing whether or not to disclose information depending on the context. We ask the question “Can LLMs demonstrate an equivalent discernment and reasoning capability when considering privacy in context?” We propose CONFAIDE, a benchmark grounded in the theory of contextual integrity and designed to identify critical weaknesses in the privacy reasoning capabilities of instruction-tuned LLMs. CONFAIDE consists of four tiers, gradually increasing in complexity, with the final tier evaluating contextual privacy reasoning and theory of mind capabilities. Our experiments show that even commercial models such as GPT-4 and ChatGPT reveal private information in contexts that humans would not, 39% and 57% of the time, respectively, highlighting the urgent need for a new direction of privacy-preserving approaches as we demonstrate a larger underlying problem stemmed in the models’ lack of reasoning capabilities.

Spotlight
DyVal: Dynamic Evaluation of Large Language Models for Reasoning Tasks

Kaijie Zhu, Jiaao Chen, Jindong Wang, Neil Zhenqiang Gong, Diyi Yang, Xing Xie

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Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance in various evaluation benchmarks. However, concerns are raised about potential data contamination in their considerable volume of training corpus. Moreover, the static nature and fixed complexity of current benchmarks may inadequately gauge the advancing capabilities of LLMs. In this paper, we introduce DyVal, a general and flexible protocol for dynamic evaluation of LLMs. Based on our framework, we build graph-informed DyVal by leveraging the structural advantage of directed acyclic graphs to dynamically generate evaluation samples with controllable complexities. DyVal generates challenging evaluation sets on reasoning tasks including mathematics, logical reasoning, and algorithm problems. We evaluate various LLMs ranging from Flan-T5-large to GPT-3.5-Turbo and GPT-4. Experiments show that LLMs perform worse in DyVal-generated evaluation samples with different complexities, highlighting the significance of dynamic evaluation. We also analyze the failure cases and results of different prompting methods. Moreover, DyVal-generated samples are not only evaluation sets, but also helpful data for fine-tuning to improve the performance of LLMs on existing benchmarks. We hope that DyVal can shed light on future evaluation research of LLMs. Code is available at: https://github.com/microsoft/promptbench.

Spotlight
Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs

Miao Xiong, Zhiyuan Hu, Xinyang Lu, Yifei Li, Jie Fu, Junxian He, Bryan Hooi

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Empowering large language models (LLMs) to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for reliable and trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on *white-box access* to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of *black-box* approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: *prompting* strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, *sampling* methods for generating multiple responses, and *aggregation* techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks—confidence calibration and failure prediction—across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be *overconfident*, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve, yet still far from ideal performance. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/MiaoXiong2320/llm-uncertainty.

Poster