ICLR 2024 Papers

Excitatory point processes (i.e., event flows) occurring over dynamic graphs (i.e., evolving topologies) provide a fine-grained model to capture how discrete events may spread over time and space. How to effectively steer the event flows by modifying the dynamic graph structures presents an interesting problem, motivated by curbing the spread of infectious diseases through strategically locking down cities to mitigating traffic congestion via traffic light optimization. To address the intricacies of planning and overcome the high dimensionality inherent to such decision-making problems, we design an Amortized Network Interventions (ANI) framework, allowing for the pooling of optimal policies from history and other contexts while ensuring a permutation equivalent property. This property enables efficient knowledge transfer and sharing across diverse contexts. Each task is solved by an H-step lookahead model-based reinforcement learning, where neural ODEs are introduced to model the dynamics of the excitatory point processes. Instead of simulating rollouts from the dynamics model, we derive an analytical mean-field approximation for the event flows given the dynamics, making the online planning more efficiently solvable. We empirically illustrate that this ANI approach substantially enhances policy learning for unseen dynamics and exhibits promising outcomes in steering event flows through network intervention using synthetic and real COVID datasets.

Link prediction is a crucial task in dynamic graph learning. Recent advancements in continuous-time dynamic graph models, primarily by leveraging richer temporal details, have significantly improved link prediction performance. However, due to their complex modules, they still face several challenges, such as overfitting and optimization difficulties. More importantly, it is challenging for these methods to capture the 'shift' phenomenon, where node interaction patterns change over time. To address these issues, we propose a simple yet novel method called \textbf{Fre}quency \textbf{E}nhanced Continuous-Time \textbf{Dy}namic \textbf{G}raph ({\bf FreeDyG}) model for link prediction. Specifically, we propose a node interaction frequency encoding module that both explicitly captures the proportion of common neighbors and the frequency of the interaction of the node pair. Unlike previous works that primarily focus on the time domain, we delve into the frequency domain, allowing a deeper and more nuanced extraction of interaction patterns, revealing periodic and "shift" behaviors. Extensive experiments conducted on seven real-world continuous-time dynamic graph datasets validate the effectiveness of FreeDyG. The results consistently demonstrate that FreeDyG outperforms existing methods in both transductive and inductive settings. Our code is available at this repository: \href{https://github.com/Tianxzzz/FreeDyG}{https://github.com/Tianxzzz/FreeDyG}

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, where time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. Specifically, the microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales, respectively, and thereby complex variations are inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, our proposed TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.

We present **STanHop-Net** (**S**parse **Tan**dem **Hop**field **Net**work) for multivariate time series prediction with memory-enhanced capabilities. At the heart of our approach is **STanHop**, a novel Hopfield-based neural network block, which sparsely learns and stores both temporal and cross-series representations in a data-dependent fashion. In essence, STanHop sequentially learns temporal representation and cross-series representation using two tandem sparse Hopfield layers. Additionally, STanHop incorporates two external memory modules: **Plug-and-Play** and **Tune-and-Play** for train-less and task-aware memory enhancements, respectively. They allow StanHop-Net to swiftly respond to sudden events. Methodologically, we construct the STanHop-Net by stacking STanHop blocks in a hierarchical fashion, enabling multi-resolution feature extraction with resolution-specific sparsity. Theoretically, we introduce a unified construction (**Generalized Sparse Modern Hopfield Model**) for both dense and sparse modern Hopfield models and show that it endows a tighter memory retrieval error compared to the dense counterpart without sacrificing memory capacity. Empirically, we validate the efficacy of STanHop-Net on many settings: time series prediction, fast test-time adaptation, and strongly correlated time series prediction.

One limitation of existing Transformer-based models is that they cannot handle very long sequences as input since their self-attention operations exhibit quadratic time and space complexity. This problem becomes especially acute when Transformers are deployed on hardware platforms equipped only with CPUs. To address this issue, we propose a novel method for accelerating self-attention at inference time that works with pretrained Transformer models out-of-the-box without requiring retraining. We experiment using our method to accelerate various long-sequence Transformers, including a leading LLaMA 2-based LLM, on various benchmarks and demonstrate a greater speedup of $2.73\times$ - $7.63\times$ while retaining $98.6$% - $99.6$% of the accuracy of the original pretrained models. The code is available on our project website at https://yuzhenmao.github.io/IceFormer/.

Stateful policies play an important role in reinforcement learning, such as handling partially observable environments, enhancing robustness, or imposing an inductive bias directly into the policy structure. The conventional method for training stateful policies is Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT), which comes with significant drawbacks, such as slow training due to sequential gradient propagation and the occurrence of vanishing or exploding gradients. The gradient is often truncated to address these issues, resulting in a biased policy update. We present a novel approach for training stateful policies by decomposing the latter into a stochastic internal state kernel and a stateless policy, jointly optimized by following the stateful policy gradient. We introduce different versions of the stateful policy gradient theorem, enabling us to easily instantiate stateful variants of popular reinforcement learning and imitation learning algorithms. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical analysis of our new gradient estimator and compare it with BPTT. We evaluate our approach on complex continuous control tasks, e.g. humanoid locomotion, and demonstrate that our gradient estimator scales effectively with task complexity while offering a faster and simpler alternative to BPTT.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) presents a promising approach for learning reinforced policies from offline datasets without the need for costly or unsafe interactions with the environment. However, datasets collected by humans in real-world environments are often noisy and may even be maliciously corrupted, which can significantly degrade the performance of offline RL. In this work, we first investigate the performance of current offline RL algorithms under comprehensive data corruption, including states, actions, rewards, and dynamics. Our extensive experiments reveal that implicit Q-learning (IQL) demonstrates remarkable resilience to data corruption among various offline RL algorithms. Furthermore, we conduct both empirical and theoretical analyses to understand IQL's robust performance, identifying its supervised policy learning scheme as the key factor. Despite its relative robustness, IQL still suffers from heavy-tail targets of Q functions under dynamics corruption. To tackle this challenge, we draw inspiration from robust statistics to employ the Huber loss to handle the heavy-tailedness and utilize quantile estimators to balance penalization for corrupted data and learning stability. By incorporating these simple yet effective modifications into IQL, we propose a more robust offline RL approach named Robust IQL (RIQL). Extensive experiments demonstrate that RIQL exhibits highly robust performance when subjected to diverse data corruption scenarios.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) are becoming the leading paradigm for generative models. It has recently shown breakthroughs in audio synthesis, time series imputation and forecasting. In this paper, we propose Diffusion-TS, a novel diffusion-based framework that generates multivariate time series samples of high quality by using an encoder-decoder transformer with disentangled temporal representations, in which the decomposition technique guides Diffusion-TS to capture the semantic meaning of time series while transformers mine detailed sequential information from the noisy model input. Different from existing diffusion-based approaches, we train the model to directly reconstruct the sample instead of the noise in each diffusion step, combining a Fourier-based loss term. Diffusion-TS is expected to generate time series satisfying both interpretablity and realness. In addition, it is shown that the proposed Diffusion-TS can be easily extended to conditional generation tasks, such as forecasting and imputation, without any model changes. This also motivates us to further explore the performance of Diffusion-TS under irregular settings. Finally, through qualitative and quantitative experiments, results show that Diffusion-TS achieves the state-of-the-art results on various realistic analyses of time series.

Irregular sampling intervals and missing values in real-world time series data present challenges for conventional methods that assume consistent intervals and complete data. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) offer an alternative approach, utilizing neural networks combined with ODE solvers to learn continuous latent representations through parameterized vector fields. Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (Neural SDEs) extend Neural ODEs by incorporating a diffusion term, although this addition is not trivial, particularly when addressing irregular intervals and missing values. Consequently, careful design of drift and diffusion functions is crucial for maintaining stability and enhancing performance, while incautious choices can result in adverse properties such as the absence of strong solutions, stochastic destabilization, or unstable Euler discretizations, significantly affecting Neural SDEs' performance. In this study, we propose three stable classes of Neural SDEs: Langevin-type SDE, Linear Noise SDE, and Geometric SDE. Then, we rigorously demonstrate their robustness in maintaining excellent performance under distribution shift, while effectively preventing overfitting. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets for interpolation, forecasting, and classification tasks, and analyze the robustness of our methods with 30 public datasets under different missing rates. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in handling real-world irregular time series data.

It is challenging to scale time series forecasting models such that they forecast accurately for multiple distinct domains and datasets, all with potentially different underlying collection procedures (e.g., sample resolution), patterns (e.g., periodicity), and prediction requirements (e.g., reconstruction vs. forecasting). We call this general task universal forecasting. Existing methods usually assume that input data is regularly sampled, and they forecast to pre-determined horizons, resulting in failure to generalise outside of the scope of their training. We propose the DAM -- a neural model that takes randomly sampled histories and outputs an adjustable basis composition as a continuous function of time for forecasting to non-fixed horizons. It involves three key components: (1) a flexible approach for using randomly sampled histories from a long-tail distribution, that enables an efficient global perspective of the underlying temporal dynamics while retaining focus on the recent history; (2) a transformer backbone that is trained on these actively sampled histories to produce, as representational output, (3) the basis coefficients of a continuous function of time. We show that a single univariate DAM, trained on 25 time series datasets, either outperformed or closely matched existing SoTA models at multivariate long-term forecasting across 18 datasets, including 8 held-out for zero-shot transfer, even though these models were trained to specialise for each dataset-horizon combination. This single DAM excels at zero-shot transfer and very-long-term forecasting, performs well at imputation, is interpretable via basis function composition and attention, can be tuned for different inference-cost requirements, is robust to missing and irregularly sampled data by design.

The success of self-supervised contrastive learning hinges on identifying positive data pairs, such that when they are pushed together in embedding space, the space encodes useful information for subsequent downstream tasks. Constructing positive pairs is non-trivial as the pairing must be similar enough to reflect a shared semantic meaning, but different enough to capture within-class variation. Classical approaches in vision use augmentations to exploit well-established invariances to construct positive pairs, but invariances in the time-series domain are much less obvious. In our work, we propose a novel method of using a learned measure for identifying positive pairs. Our Retrieval-Based Reconstruction (REBAR) measure measures the similarity between two sequences as the reconstruction error that results from reconstructing one sequence with retrieved information from the other. Then, if the two sequences have high REBAR similarity, we label them as a positive pair. Through validation experiments, we show that the REBAR error is a predictor of mutual class membership. Once integrated into a contrastive learning framework, our REBAR method learns an embedding that achieves state-of-the-art performance on downstream tasks across various modalities.

Multivariate time series present challenges to standard machine learning techniques, as they are often unlabeled, high dimensional, noisy, and contain missing data. To address this, we propose T-Rep, a self-supervised method to learn time series representations at a timestep granularity. T-Rep learns vector embeddings of time alongside its feature extractor, to extract temporal features such as trend, periodicity, or distribution shifts from the signal. These time-embeddings are leveraged in pretext tasks, to incorporate smooth and fine-grained temporal dependencies in the representations, as well as reinforce robustness to missing data. We evaluate T-Rep on downstream classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection tasks. It is compared to existing self-supervised algorithms for time series, which it outperforms in all three tasks. We test T-Rep in missing data regimes, where it proves more resilient than its counterparts. Finally, we provide latent space visualisation experiments, highlighting the interpretability of the learned representations.

Data contamination, i.e., the presence of test data from downstream tasks in the training data of large language models (LLMs), is a potential major issue in measuring LLMs' real effectiveness on other tasks. We propose a straightforward yet effective method for identifying data contamination within LLMs. At its core, our approach starts by identifying potential contamination at the instance level; using this information, our approach then assesses wider contamination at the partition level. To estimate contamination of individual instances, we employ "guided instruction:" a prompt consisting of the dataset name, partition type, and the random-length initial segment of a reference instance, asking the LLM to complete it. An instance is flagged as contaminated if the LLM's output either exactly or nearly matches the latter segment of the reference. To understand if an entire partition is contaminated, we propose two ideas. The first idea marks a dataset partition as contaminated if the average overlap score with the reference instances (as measured by ROUGE-L or BLEURT) is statistically significantly better with the completions from guided instruction compared to a "general instruction" that does not include the dataset and partition name. The second idea marks a dataset partition as contaminated if a classifier based on GPT-4 with few-shot in-context learning prompt marks multiple generated completions as exact/near-exact matches of the corresponding reference instances. Our best method achieves an accuracy between 92% and 100% in detecting if an LLM is contaminated with seven datasets, containing train and test/validation partitions, when contrasted with manual evaluation by human experts. Further, our findings indicate that GPT-4 is contaminated with AG News, WNLI, and XSum datasets.

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves $2 \times$ median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about $20\times$ more sample efficient than the successor representation and $1500 \times$ more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.