ICLR 2024 Papers

International Conference on Learning Representations

Decision breakdown

2,260papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    863.8%
  • Spotlight
    36716.2%
  • Poster
    1,80780.0%

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Topic: Datasets and Benchmarks · 216 papers · Reset filters

MINT: Evaluating LLMs in Multi-turn Interaction with Tools and Language Feedback

Xingyao Wang, Zihan Wang, Jiateng Liu, Yangyi Chen, Lifan Yuan, Hao Peng, Heng Ji

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To solve complex tasks, large language models (LLMs) often require multiple rounds of interactions with the user, sometimes assisted by external tools. However, current evaluation protocols often emphasize benchmark performance with single-turn exchanges, neglecting the nuanced interactions among the user, LLMs, and external tools, while also underestimating the importance of natural language feedback from users. These oversights contribute to discrepancies between research benchmark evaluations and real-world use cases. We introduce MINT, a benchmark that evaluates LLMs' ability to solve tasks with multi-turn interactions by (1) using tools and (2) leveraging natural language feedback. To ensure reproducibility, we provide an evaluation framework where LLMs can access tools by executing Python code and receive users' natural language feedback simulated by GPT-4. We repurpose a diverse set of established evaluation datasets focusing on reasoning, coding, and decision-making and carefully curate them into a compact subset for efficient evaluation. Our analysis of 20 open- and closed-source LLMs offers intriguing findings. (a) LLMs generally benefit from tools and language feedback, with performance gains (absolute, same below) of 1--8% for each turn of tool use and 2--17% with natural language feedback. (b) Better single-turn performance does not guarantee better multi-turn performance. (c) Surprisingly, on the LLMs evaluated, supervised instruction-finetuning (SIFT) and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) generally hurt multi-turn capabilities. We expect MINT can help measure progress and incentivize research in improving LLMs' capabilities in multi-turn interactions, especially for open-source communities where multi-turn human evaluation can be less accessible compared to commercial LLMs with a larger user base.

Poster
MuSR: Testing the Limits of Chain-of-thought with Multistep Soft Reasoning

Zayne Rea Sprague, Xi Ye, Kaj Bostrom, Swarat Chaudhuri, Greg Durrett

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While large language models (LLMs) equipped with techniques like chain-of-thought prompting have demonstrated impressive capabilities, they still fall short in their ability to reason robustly in complex settings. However, evaluating LLM reasoning is challenging because system capabilities continue to grow while benchmark datasets for tasks like logical deduction have remained static. We introduce MuSR, a dataset for evaluating language models on multistep soft reasoning tasks specified in a natural language narrative. This dataset has two crucial features. First, it is created through a novel neurosymbolic synthetic-to-natural generation algorithm, enabling the construction of complex reasoning instances that challenge GPT-4 (e.g., murder mysteries roughly 1000 words in length) and which can be scaled further as more capable LLMs are released. Second, our data instances are free text narratives corresponding to real-world domains of reasoning; this makes it simultaneously much more challenging than other synthetically-crafted benchmarks while remaining realistic and tractable for human annotators to solve with high accuracy. We evaluate a range of LLMs and prompting techniques on this dataset and characterize the gaps that remain for techniques like chain-of-thought to perform robust reasoning.

Spotlight
Foundation Model-oriented Robustness: Robust Image Model Evaluation with Pretrained Models

Peiyan Zhang, Haoyang Liu, Chaozhuo Li, Xing Xie, Sunghun Kim, Haohan Wang

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Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable performance over finite datasets, yet whether the scores over the fixed benchmarks can sufficiently indicate the model’s performance in the real world is still in discussion. In reality, an ideal robust model will probably behave similarly to the oracle (e.g., the human users), thus a good evaluation protocol is probably to evaluate the models’ behaviors in comparison to the oracle. In this paper, we introduce a new robustness measurement that directly measures the image classification model’s performance compared with a surrogate oracle (i.e., a zoo of foundation models). Besides, we design a simple method that can accomplish the evaluation beyond the scope of the benchmarks. Our method extends the image datasets with new samples that are sufficiently perturbed to be distinct from the ones in the original sets, but are still bounded within the same image-label structure the original test image represents, constrained by a zoo of foundation models pretrained with a large amount of samples. As a result, our new method will offer us a new way to evaluate the models’ robustness performance, free of limitations of fixed benchmarks or constrained perturbations, although scoped by the power of the oracle. In addition to the evaluation results, we also leverage our generated data to understand the behaviors of the model and our new evaluation strategies.

Poster
Pushing Boundaries: Mixup's Influence on Neural Collapse

Quinn LeBlanc Fisher, Haoming Meng, Vardan Papyan

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Mixup is a data augmentation strategy that employs convex combinations of training instances and their respective labels to improve the robustness and calibration of deep neural networks. Despite its widespread adoption, the nuanced mechanisms that underpin its success are not entirely understood. The observed phenomenon of Neural Collapse, where the last-layer activations and classifier of deep networks converge to a simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF), provides a compelling motivation to explore whether mixup induces alternative geometric configurations and whether those could explain its success. In this study, we delve into the last-layer activations of training data for deep networks subjected to mixup, aiming to uncover insights into its operational efficacy. Our investigation, spanning various architectures and dataset pairs, reveals that mixup's last-layer activations predominantly converge to a distinctive configuration different than one might expect. In this configuration, activations from mixed-up examples of identical classes align with the classifier, while those from different classes delineate channels along the decision boundary. These findings are unexpected, as mixed-up features are not simple convex combinations of feature class means (as one might get, for example, by training mixup with the mean squared error loss). By analyzing this distinctive geometric configuration, we elucidate the mechanisms by which mixup enhances model calibration. To further validate our empirical observations, we conduct a theoretical analysis under the assumption of an unconstrained features model, utilizing the mixup loss. Through this, we characterize and derive the optimal last-layer features under the assumption that the classifier forms a simplex ETF.

Poster
OpenWebMath: An Open Dataset of High-Quality Mathematical Web Text

Keiran Paster, Marco Dos Santos, Zhangir Azerbayev, Jimmy Ba

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There is growing evidence that pretraining on high quality, carefully thought-out tokens such as code or mathematics plays an important role in improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. For example, Minerva, a PaLM model finetuned on billions of tokens of mathematical documents from arXiv and the web, reported dramatically improved performance on problems that require quantitative reasoning. However, because all known open source web datasets employ preprocessing that does not faithfully preserve mathematical notation, the benefits of large scale training on quantitive web documents are unavailable to the research community. We introduce OpenWebMath, an open dataset inspired by these works containing 14.7B tokens of mathematical webpages from Common Crawl. We describe in detail our method for extracting text and LaTeX content and removing boilerplate from HTML documents, as well as our methods for quality filtering and deduplication. Additionally, we run small-scale experiments by training 1.4B language models on OpenWebMath, showing that models trained on 14.7B tokens of our dataset surpass the performance of models trained on over 20x the amount of general language data. We hope that our dataset, open-sourced and released on the Hugging Face Hub, will help spur advances in the reasoning abilities of large language models.

Poster
LitCab: Lightweight Language Model Calibration over Short- and Long-form Responses

Xin Liu, Muhammad Khalifa, Lu Wang

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A model is considered well-calibrated when its probability estimate aligns with the actual likelihood of the output being correct. Calibrating language models (LMs) is crucial, as it plays a vital role in detecting and mitigating hallucinations of LMs as well as building more trustworthy models. However, standard calibration techniques may not be suited for LM calibration. For instance, post-processing methods such as temperature scaling do not reorder the candidate generations. On the other hand, training-based methods require fine-tuning the entire model, which is impractical for LMs of large scale. We present LitCab, a lightweight calibration mechanism consisting of a single linear layer that takes the input text representation and predicts a bias term, which is then added to the LM output logits. LitCab improves model calibration by only adding < 2% of the original model parameters. For evaluation, we construct CaT, a benchmark consisting of eight text generation tasks, covering responses ranging from short phrases to paragraphs. We test LitCab with Llama2-7B, where it improves calibration across all tasks, reducing the average ECE score by as large as 30%. We further conduct a comprehensive evaluation with multiple popular open-sourced LMs from GPT and LLaMA families, yielding the following key findings: (i) Larger models within the same family exhibit better calibration on tasks with short generation tasks, but not necessarily for longer ones. (ii) GPT-family models show superior calibration compared to LLaMA, Llama2, and Vicuna models, despite having much fewer parameters. (iii) Fine-tuning pretrained model (e.g., LLaMA) with samples of limited purpose (e.g., conversations) may lead to worse calibration, highlighting the importance of fine-tuning setups for calibrating LMs.

Poster
ContextRef: Evaluating Referenceless Metrics for Image Description Generation

Elisa Kreiss, Eric Zelikman, Christopher Potts, Nick Haber

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Referenceless metrics (e.g., CLIPScore) use pretrained vision--language models to assess image descriptions directly without costly ground-truth reference texts. Such methods can facilitate rapid progress, but only if they truly align with human preference judgments. In this paper, we introduce ContextRef, a benchmark for assessing referenceless metrics for such alignment. ContextRef has two components: human ratings along a variety of established quality dimensions, and ten diverse robustness checks designed to uncover fundamental weaknesses. A crucial aspect of ContextRef is that images and descriptions are presented in context, reflecting prior work showing that context is important for description quality. Using ContextRef, we assess a variety of pretrained models, scoring functions, and techniques for incorporating context. None of the methods is successful with ContextRef, but we show that careful fine-tuning yields substantial improvements. ContextRef remains a challenging benchmark though, in large part due to the challenge of context dependence.

Poster
The Effect of Intrinsic Dataset Properties on Generalization: Unraveling Learning Differences Between Natural and Medical Images

Nicholas Konz, Maciej A Mazurowski

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This paper investigates discrepancies in how neural networks learn from different imaging domains, which are commonly overlooked when adopting computer vision techniques from the domain of natural images to other specialized domains such as medical images. Recent works have found that the generalization error of a trained network typically increases with the intrinsic dimension ($d_{data}$) of its training set. Yet, the steepness of this relationship varies significantly between medical (radiological) and natural imaging domains, with no existing theoretical explanation. We address this gap in knowledge by establishing and empirically validating a generalization scaling law with respect to $d_{data}$, and propose that the substantial scaling discrepancy between the two considered domains may be at least partially attributed to the higher intrinsic ``label sharpness'' ($K_\mathcal{F}$) of medical imaging datasets, a metric which we propose. Next, we demonstrate an additional benefit of measuring the label sharpness of a training set: it is negatively correlated with the trained model's adversarial robustness, which notably leads to models for medical images having a substantially higher vulnerability to adversarial attack. Finally, we extend our $d_{data}$ formalism to the related metric of learned representation intrinsic dimension ($d_{repr}$), derive a generalization scaling law with respect to $d_{repr}$, and show that $d_{data}$ serves as an upper bound for $d_{repr}$. Our theoretical results are supported by thorough experiments with six models and eleven natural and medical imaging datasets over a range of training set sizes. Our findings offer insights into the influence of intrinsic dataset properties on generalization, representation learning, and robustness in deep neural networks. *Code link: https://github.com/mazurowski-lab/intrinsic-properties*

Poster
Dissecting Sample Hardness: A Fine-Grained Analysis of Hardness Characterization Methods for Data-Centric AI

Nabeel Seedat, Fergus Imrie, Mihaela van der Schaar

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Characterizing samples that are difficult to learn from is crucial to developing highly performant ML models. This has led to numerous Hardness Characterization Methods (HCMs) that aim to identify ''hard'' samples. However, there is a lack of consensus regarding the definition and evaluation of ''hardness''. Unfortunately, current HCMs have only been evaluated on specific types of hardness and often only qualitatively or with respect to downstream performance, overlooking the fundamental quantitative identification task. We address this gap by presenting a fine-grained taxonomy of hardness types. Additionally, we propose the Hardness Characterization Analysis Toolkit (H-CAT), which supports comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking of HCMs across the hardness taxonomy and can easily be extended to new HCMs, hardness types, and datasets. We use H-CAT to evaluate 13 different HCMs across 8 hardness types. This comprehensive evaluation encompassing over 14K setups uncovers strengths and weaknesses of different HCMs, leading to practical tips to guide HCM selection and future development. Our findings highlight the need for more comprehensive HCM evaluation, while we hope our hardness taxonomy and toolkit will advance the principled evaluation and uptake of data-centric AI methods.

Poster
Epitopological learning and Cannistraci-Hebb network shape intelligence brain-inspired theory for ultra-sparse advantage in deep learning

Yingtao Zhang, Jialin Zhao, Wenjing Wu, Alessandro Muscoloni, Carlo Vittorio Cannistraci

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Sparse training (ST) aims to ameliorate deep learning by replacing fully connected artificial neural networks (ANNs) with sparse or ultra-sparse ones, such as brain networks are, therefore it might benefit to borrow brain-inspired learning paradigms from complex network intelligence theory. Here, we launch the ultra-sparse advantage challenge, whose goal is to offer evidence on the extent to which ultra-sparse (around 1\% connection retained) topologies can achieve any leaning advantage against fully connected. Epitopological learning is a field of network science and complex network intelligence that studies how to implement learning on complex networks by changing the shape of their connectivity structure (epitopological plasticity). One way to implement Epitopological (epi- means new) Learning is via link prediction: predicting the likelihood of non-observed links to appear in the network. Cannistraci-Hebb learning theory inspired the CH3-L3 network automata rule for link prediction which is effective for general-purpose link prediction. Here, starting from CH3-L3 we propose Epitopological Sparse Meta-deep Learning (ESML) to apply Epitopological Learning to sparse training. In empirical experiments, we find that ESML learns ANNs with ultra-sparse hyperbolic (epi-)topology in which emerges a community layer organization that is meta-deep (meaning that each layer also has an internal depth due to power-law node hierarchy). Furthermore, we discover that ESML can in many cases automatically sparse the neurons during training (arriving even to 30\% neurons left in hidden layers), this process of node dynamic removal is called percolation. Starting from this network science evidence, we design Cannistraci-Hebb training (CHT), a 4-step training methodology that puts ESML at its heart. We conduct experiments on 7 datasets and 5 network structures comparing CHT to dynamic sparse training SOTA algorithms and the fully connected counterparts. The results indicate that, with a mere 1\% of links retained during training, CHT surpasses fully connected networks on VGG16, GoogLeNet, ResNet50, and ResNet152. This key finding is an evidence for ultra-sparse advantage and signs a milestone in deep learning. CHT acts akin to a gradient-free oracle that adopts CH3-L3-based epitopological learning to guide the placement of new links in the ultra-sparse network topology to facilitate sparse-weight gradient learning, and this in turn reduces the convergence time of ultra-sparse training. Finally, CHT offers the first examples of parsimony dynamic sparse training because, in many datasets, it can retain network performance by percolating and significantly reducing the node network size. Our code is available at: https://github.com/biomedical-cybernetics/Cannistraci-Hebb-training

Poster
CausalTime: Realistically Generated Time-series for Benchmarking of Causal Discovery

Yuxiao Cheng, Ziqian Wang, Tingxiong Xiao, Qin Zhong, Jinli Suo, Kunlun He

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Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

Poster
Rethinking Backdoor Attacks on Dataset Distillation: A Kernel Method Perspective

Ming-Yu Chung, Sheng-Yen Chou, Chia-Mu Yu, Pin-Yu Chen, Sy-Yen Kuo, Tsung-Yi Ho

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Dataset distillation offers a potential means to enhance data efficiency in deep learning. Recent studies have shown its ability to counteract backdoor risks present in original training samples. In this study, we delve into the theoretical aspects of backdoor attacks and dataset distillation based on kernel methods. We introduce two new theory-driven trigger pattern generation methods specialized for dataset distillation. Following a comprehensive set of analyses and experiments, we show that our optimization-based trigger design framework informs effective backdoor attacks on dataset distillation. Notably, datasets poisoned by our designed trigger prove resilient against conventional backdoor attack detection and mitigation methods. Our empirical results validate that the triggers developed using our approaches are proficient at executing resilient backdoor attacks.

Poster
Asymptotically Free Sketched Ridge Ensembles: Risks, Cross-Validation, and Tuning

Pratik Patil, Daniel LeJeune

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We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

Spotlight
InstructDET: Diversifying Referring Object Detection with Generalized Instructions

Ronghao Dang, Jiangyan Feng, Haodong Zhang, Chongjian GE, Lin Song, Lijun GONG, Chengju Liu, Qijun Chen, Feng Zhu, Rui Zhao, Yibing Song

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We propose InstructDET, a data-centric method for referring object detection (ROD) that localizes target objects based on user instructions. While deriving from referring expressions (REC), the instructions we leverage are greatly diversified to encompass common user intentions related to object detection. For one image, we produce tremendous instructions that refer to every single object and different combinations of multiple objects. Each instruction and its corresponding object bounding boxes (bbxs) constitute one training data pair. In order to encompass common detection expressions, we involve emerging vision-language model (VLM) and large language model (LLM) to generate instructions guided by text prompts and object bbxs, as the generalizations of foundation models are effective to produce human-like expressions (e.g., describing object property, category, and relationship). We name our constructed dataset as InDET. It contains images, bbxs and generalized instructions that are from foundation models. Our InDET is developed from existing REC datasets and object detection datasets, with the expanding potential that any image with object bbxs can be incorporated through using our InstructDET method. By using our InDET dataset, we show that a conventional ROD model surpasses existing methods on standard REC datasets and our InDET test set. Our data-centric method InstructDET, with automatic data expansion by leveraging foundation models, directs a promising field that ROD can be greatly diversified to execute common object detection instructions.

Poster
VQGraph: Rethinking Graph Representation Space for Bridging GNNs and MLPs

Ling Yang, Ye Tian, Minkai Xu, Zhongyi Liu, Shenda Hong, Wei Qu, Wentao Zhang, Bin Cui, Muhan Zhang, Jure Leskovec

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GNN-to-MLP distillation aims to utilize knowledge distillation (KD) to learn computationally-efficient multi-layer perceptron (student MLP) on graph data by mimicking the output representations of teacher GNN. Existing methods mainly make the MLP to mimic the GNN predictions over a few class labels. However, the class space may not be expressive enough for covering numerous diverse local graph structures, thus limiting the performance of knowledge transfer from GNN to MLP. To address this issue, we propose to learn a new powerful graph representation space by directly labeling nodes' diverse local structures for GNN-to-MLP distillation. Specifically, we propose a variant of VQ-VAE to learn a structure-aware tokenizer on graph data that can encode each node's local substructure as a discrete code. The discrete codes constitute a codebook as a new graph representation space that is able to identify different local graph structures of nodes with the corresponding code indices. Then, based on the learned codebook, we propose a new distillation target, namely soft code assignments, to directly transfer the structural knowledge of each node from GNN to MLP. The resulting framework VQGraph achieves new state-of-the-art performance on GNN-to-MLP distillation in both transductive and inductive settings across seven graph datasets. We show that VQGraph with better performance infers faster than GNNs by 828×, and also achieves accuracy improvement over GNNs and stand-alone MLPs by 3.90% and 28.05% on average, respectively. Our code is available at https://github.com/YangLing0818/VQGraph

Poster
Self-Supervised Dataset Distillation for Transfer Learning

Dong Bok Lee, Seanie Lee, Joonho Ko, Kenji Kawaguchi, Juho Lee, Sung Ju Hwang

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Dataset distillation aims to optimize a small set so that a model trained on the set achieves performance similar to that of a model trained on the full dataset. While many supervised methods have achieved remarkable success in distilling a large dataset into a small set of representative samples, however, they are not designed to produce a distilled dataset that can be effectively used to facilitate self-supervised pre-training. To this end, we propose a novel problem of distilling an unlabeled dataset into a set of small synthetic samples for efficient self-supervised learning (SSL). We first prove that a gradient of synthetic samples with respect to a SSL objective in naive bilevel optimization is \textit{biased} due to the randomness originating from data augmentations or masking for inner optimization. To address this issue, we propose to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) between a model's representations of the synthetic examples and their corresponding learnable target feature representations for the inner objective, which does not introduce any randomness. Our primary motivation is that the model obtained by the proposed inner optimization can mimic the \textit{self-supervised target model}. To achieve this, we also introduce the MSE between representations of the inner model and the self-supervised target model on the original full dataset for outer optimization. We empirically validate the effectiveness of our method on transfer learning. Our code is available at https://github.com/db-Lee/selfsup_dd

Poster
VertiBench: Advancing Feature Distribution Diversity in Vertical Federated Learning Benchmarks

Zhaomin Wu, Junyi Hou, Bingsheng He

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Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) is a crucial paradigm for training machine learning models on feature-partitioned, distributed data. However, due to privacy restrictions, few public real-world VFL datasets exist for algorithm evaluation, and these represent a limited array of feature distributions. Existing benchmarks often resort to synthetic datasets, derived from arbitrary feature splits from a global set, which only capture a subset of feature distributions, leading to inadequate algorithm performance assessment. This paper addresses these shortcomings by introducing two key factors affecting VFL performance - feature importance and feature correlation - and proposing associated evaluation metrics and dataset splitting methods. Additionally, we introduce a real VFL dataset to address the deficit in image-image VFL scenarios. Our comprehensive evaluation of cutting-edge VFL algorithms provides valuable insights for future research in the field.

Poster
DyVal: Dynamic Evaluation of Large Language Models for Reasoning Tasks

Kaijie Zhu, Jiaao Chen, Jindong Wang, Neil Zhenqiang Gong, Diyi Yang, Xing Xie

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Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance in various evaluation benchmarks. However, concerns are raised about potential data contamination in their considerable volume of training corpus. Moreover, the static nature and fixed complexity of current benchmarks may inadequately gauge the advancing capabilities of LLMs. In this paper, we introduce DyVal, a general and flexible protocol for dynamic evaluation of LLMs. Based on our framework, we build graph-informed DyVal by leveraging the structural advantage of directed acyclic graphs to dynamically generate evaluation samples with controllable complexities. DyVal generates challenging evaluation sets on reasoning tasks including mathematics, logical reasoning, and algorithm problems. We evaluate various LLMs ranging from Flan-T5-large to GPT-3.5-Turbo and GPT-4. Experiments show that LLMs perform worse in DyVal-generated evaluation samples with different complexities, highlighting the significance of dynamic evaluation. We also analyze the failure cases and results of different prompting methods. Moreover, DyVal-generated samples are not only evaluation sets, but also helpful data for fine-tuning to improve the performance of LLMs on existing benchmarks. We hope that DyVal can shed light on future evaluation research of LLMs. Code is available at: https://github.com/microsoft/promptbench.

Spotlight
Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs

Miao Xiong, Zhiyuan Hu, Xinyang Lu, Yifei Li, Jie Fu, Junxian He, Bryan Hooi

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Empowering large language models (LLMs) to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for reliable and trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on *white-box access* to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of *black-box* approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: *prompting* strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, *sampling* methods for generating multiple responses, and *aggregation* techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks—confidence calibration and failure prediction—across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be *overconfident*, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve, yet still far from ideal performance. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/MiaoXiong2320/llm-uncertainty.

Poster
Attention Satisfies: A Constraint-Satisfaction Lens on Factual Errors of Language Models

Mert Yuksekgonul, Varun Chandrasekaran, Erik Jones, Suriya Gunasekar, Ranjita Naik, Hamid Palangi, Ece Kamar, Besmira Nushi

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We investigate the internal behavior of Transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs) when they generate factually incorrect text. We propose modeling factual queries as constraint satisfaction problems and use this framework to investigate how the LLM interacts internally with factual constraints. We find a strong positive relationship between the LLM's attention to constraint tokens and the factual accuracy of generations. We curate a suite of 10 datasets containing over 40,000 prompts to study the task of predicting factual errors with the Llama-2 family across all scales (7B, 13B, 70B). We propose SAT Probe, a method probing attention patterns, that can predict factual errors and fine-grained constraint satisfaction, and allow early error identification. The approach and findings take another step towards using the mechanistic understanding of LLMs to enhance their reliability.

Poster