ICLR 2024 Papers

Known for their impressive performance in generative modeling, diffusion models are attractive candidates for density-based anomaly detection. This paper investigates different variations of diffusion modeling for unsupervised and semi-supervised anomaly detection. In particular, we find that Denoising Diffusion Probability Models (DDPM) are performant on anomaly detection benchmarks yet computationally expensive. By simplifying DDPM in application to anomaly detection, we are naturally led to an alternative approach called Diffusion Time Estimation (DTE). DTE estimates the distribution over diffusion time for a given input and uses the mode or mean of this distribution as the anomaly score. We derive an analytical form for this density and leverage a deep neural network to improve inference efficiency. Through empirical evaluations on the ADBench benchmark, we demonstrate that all diffusion-based anomaly detection methods perform competitively for both semi-supervised and unsupervised settings. Notably, DTE achieves orders of magnitude faster inference time than DDPM, while outperforming it on this benchmark. These results establish diffusion-based anomaly detection as a scalable alternative to traditional methods and recent deep-learning techniques for standard unsupervised and semi-supervised anomaly detection settings.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) are a state-of-the-art tool for supervised learning with irregularly sampled time series (Kidger 2020). However, no theoretical analysis of their performance has been provided yet, and it remains unclear in particular how the roughness of the sampling affects their predictions. By merging the rich theory of controlled differential equations (CDE) and Lipschitz-based measures of the complexity of deep neural nets, we take a first step towards the theoretical understanding of NCDE. Our first result is a sampling-dependant generalization bound for this class of predictors. In a second time, we leverage the continuity of the flow of CDEs to provide a detailed analysis of both the sampling-induced bias and the approximation bias. Regarding this last result, we show how classical approximation results on neural nets may transfer to NCDE. Our theoretical results are validated through a series of experiments.

In deep learning, test-time adaptation has gained attention as a method for model fine-tuning without the need for labeled data. A prime exemplification is the recently proposed test-time prompt tuning for large-scale vision-language models such as CLIP. Unfortunately, these prompts have been mainly developed to improve accuracy, overlooking the importance of calibration, which is a crucial aspect for quantifying prediction uncertainty. However, traditional calibration methods rely on substantial amounts of labeled data, making them impractical for test-time scenarios. To this end, this paper explores calibration during test-time prompt tuning by leveraging the inherent properties of CLIP. Through a series of observations, we find that the prompt choice significantly affects the calibration in CLIP, where the prompts leading to higher text feature dispersion result in better-calibrated predictions. Introducing the Average Text Feature Dispersion (ATFD), we establish its relationship with calibration error and present a novel method, Calibrated Test-time Prompt Tuning (C-TPT), for optimizing prompts during test-time with enhanced calibration. Through extensive experiments on different CLIP architectures and datasets, we show that C-TPT can effectively improve the calibration of test-time prompt tuning without needing labeled data. The code is publicly accessible at https://github.com/hee-suk-yoon/C-TPT.

The capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have sparked debate over whether such systems just learn an enormous collection of superficial statistics or a set of more coherent and grounded representations that reflect the real world. We find evidence for the latter by analyzing the learned representations of three spatial datasets (world, US, NYC places) and three temporal datasets (historical figures, artworks, news headlines) in the Llama-2 family of models. We discover that LLMs learn linear representations of space and time across multiple scales. These representations are robust to prompting variations and unified across different entity types (e.g. cities and landmarks). In addition, we identify individual "space neurons" and "time neurons" that reliably encode spatial and temporal coordinates. While further investigation is needed, our results suggest modern LLMs learn rich spatiotemporal representations of the real world and possess basic ingredients of a world model.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

Learning disentangled representations for time series is a promising path to facilitate reliable generalization to in- and out-of distribution (OOD), offering benefits like feature derivation and improved interpretability and fairness, thereby enhancing downstream tasks. We focus on disentangled representation learning for home appliance electricity usage, enabling users to understand and optimize their consumption for a reduced carbon footprint. Our approach frames the problem as disentangling each attribute's role in total consumption. Unlike existing methods assuming attribute independence which leads to non-identiability, we acknowledge real-world time series attribute correlations, learned up to a smooth bijection using contrastive learning and a single autoencoder. To address this, we propose a Disentanglement under Independence-Of-Support via Contrastive Learning (DIOSC), facilitating representation generalization across diverse correlated scenarios. Our method utilizes innovative \textit{l}-variational inference layers with self-attention, effectively addressing temporal dependencies across bottom-up and top-down networks. We find that DIOSC can enhance the task of representation of time series electricity consumption. We introduce TDS (Time Disentangling Score) to gauge disentanglement quality. TDS reliably reflects disentanglement performance, making it a valuable metric for evaluating time series representations disentanglement. Code available at https://institut-polytechnique-de-paris.github.io/time-disentanglement-lib.

Graph transformers (GTs) have emerged as a promising architecture that is theoretically more expressive than message-passing graph neural networks (GNNs). However, typical GT models have at least quadratic complexity and thus cannot scale to large graphs. While there are several linear GTs recently proposed, they still lag behind GNN counterparts on several popular graph datasets, which poses a critical concern on their practical expressivity. To balance the trade-off between expressivity and scalability of GTs, we propose Polynormer, a polynomial-expressive GT model with linear complexity. Polynormer is built upon a novel base model that learns a high-degree polynomial on input features. To enable the base model permutation equivariant, we integrate it with graph topology and node features separately, resulting in local and global equivariant attention models. Consequently, Polynormer adopts a linear local-to-global attention scheme to learn high-degree equivariant polynomials whose coefficients are controlled by attention scores. Polynormer has been evaluated on $13$ homophilic and heterophilic datasets, including large graphs with millions of nodes. Our extensive experiment results show that Polynormer outperforms state-of-the-art GNN and GT baselines on most datasets, even without the use of nonlinear activation functions. Source code of Polynormer is freely available at: [github.com/cornell-zhang/Polynormer](https://github.com/cornell-zhang/Polynormer).

Graph Anomaly Detection (GAD) has surfaced as a significant field of research, predominantly due to its substantial influence in production environments. Although existing approaches for node anomaly detection have shown effectiveness, they have yet to fully address two major challenges: operating in settings with limited supervision and managing class imbalance effectively. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel model, ConsisGAD, which is tailored for GAD in scenarios characterized by limited supervision and is anchored in the principles of consistency training. Under limited supervision, ConsisGAD effectively leverages the abundance of unlabeled data for consistency training by incorporating a novel learnable data augmentation mechanism, thereby introducing controlled noise into the dataset. Moreover, ConsisGAD takes advantage of the variance in homophily distribution between normal and anomalous nodes to craft a simplified GNN backbone, enhancing its capability to distinguish effectively between these two classes. Comprehensive experiments on several benchmark datasets validate the superior performance of ConsisGAD in comparison to state-of-the-art baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xtra-Computing/ConsisGAD.

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to the these issues, they are (surprisingly) less considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KoVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leveraging spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stability of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KoVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KoVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KoVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate the empirical ground truth distribution.

Convolutional neural network (CNN)-based and Transformer-based methods have recently made significant strides in time series forecasting, which excel at modeling local temporal variations or capturing long-term dependencies. However, real-world time series usually contain intricate temporal patterns, thus making it challenging for existing methods that mainly focus on temporal variations modeling from the 1D time series directly. Based on the intrinsic periodicity of time series, we propose a novel Periodicity Decoupling Framework (PDF) to capture 2D temporal variations of decoupled series for long-term series forecasting. Our PDF mainly consists of three components: multi-periodic decoupling block (MDB), dual variations modeling block (DVMB), and variations aggregation block (VAB). Unlike the previous methods that model 1D temporal variations, our PDF mainly models 2D temporal variations, decoupled from 1D time series by MDB. After that, DVMB attempts to further capture short-term and long-term variations, followed by VAB to make final predictions. Extensive experimental results across seven real-world long-term time series datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method over other state-of-the-art methods, in terms of both forecasting performance and computational efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/Hank0626/PDF.

Many well-known and effective anomaly detection methods assume that a reasonable decision boundary has a hypersphere shape, which however is difficult to obtain in practice and is not sufficiently compact, especially when the data are in high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, we first propose a novel deep anomaly detection model that improves the original hypersphere learning through an orthogonal projection layer, which ensures that the training data distribution is consistent with the hypersphere hypothesis, thereby increasing the true positive rate and decreasing the false negative rate. Moreover, we propose a bi-hypersphere compression method to obtain a hyperspherical shell that yields a more compact decision region than a hyperball, which is demonstrated theoretically and numerically. The proposed methods are not confined to common datasets such as image and tabular data, but are also extended to a more challenging but promising scenario, graph-level anomaly detection, which learns graph representation with maximum mutual information between the substructure and global structure features while exploring orthogonal single- or bi-hypersphere anomaly decision boundaries. The numerical and visualization results on benchmark datasets demonstrate the superiority of our methods in comparison to many baselines and state-of-the-art methods.

Analyzing multivariate time series is important in many domains. However, it has been difficult to learn robust and generalizable representations within multivariate datasets due to complex inter-channel relationships and dynamic shifts. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for learning spatiotemporal structure and using it to improve the application of transformers to timeseries datasets. Our framework learns a set of group tokens, and builds an instance-specific group embedding (GE) layer that assigns input tokens to a small number of group tokens to incorporate structure into learning. We then introduce a novel architecture, Group-Aware transFormer (GAFormer), which incorporates both spatial and temporal group embeddings to achieve state-of-the-art performance on a number of time-series classification and regression tasks. In evaluations on a number of diverse timeseries datasets, we show that GE on its own can provide a nice enhancement to a number of backbones, and that by coupling spatial and temporal group embeddings, the GAFormer can outperform the existing baselines. Finally, we show how our approach discerns latent structures in data even without information about the spatial ordering of channels, and yields a more interpretable decomposition of spatial and temporal structure underlying complex multivariate datasets.

Of all the vector fields surrounding the minima of recurrent learning setups, the gradient field with its exploding and vanishing updates appears a poor choice for optimization, offering little beyond efficient computability. We seek to improve this suboptimal practice in the context of physics simulations, where backpropagating feedback through many unrolled time steps is considered crucial to acquiring temporally coherent behavior. The alternative vector field we propose follows from two principles: physics simulators, unlike neural networks, have a balanced gradient flow and certain modifications to the backpropagation pass leave the positions of the original minima unchanged. As any modification of backpropagation decouples forward and backward pass, the rotation-free character of the gradient field is lost. Therefore, we discuss the negative implications of using such a rotational vector field for optimization and how to counteract them. Our final procedure is easily implementable via a sequence of gradient stopping and component-wise comparison operations, which do not negatively affect scalability. Our experiments on three control problems show that especially as we increase the complexity of each task, the unbalanced updates from the gradient can no longer provide the precise control signals necessary while our method still solves the tasks. Our code can be found at https://github.com/tum-pbs/StableBPTT.

Recent research in decoding methods for Natural Language Generation (NLG) tasks has shown that MAP decoding is not optimal, because model probabilities do not always align with human preferences. Stronger decoding methods, including Quality Estimation (QE) reranking and Minimum Bayes' Risk (MBR) decoding, have since been proposed to mitigate the model-perplexity-vs-quality mismatch. While these decoding methods achieve state-of-the-art performance, they are prohibitively expensive to compute. In this work, we propose MBR finetuning and QE finetuning, which distill the quality gains from these decoding methods at training time, while using an efficient decoding algorithm at inference time. Using the canonical NLG task of Neural Machine Translation (NMT), we show that even with self-training, these finetuning methods significantly outperform the base model. Moreover, when using an external LLM as a teacher model, these finetuning methods outperform finetuning on human-generated references. These findings suggest new ways to leverage monolingual data to achieve improvements in model quality that are on par with, or even exceed, improvements from human-curated data, while maintaining maximum efficiency during decoding.

Representation learning is all about discovering the hidden modular attributes that generate the data faithfully. We explore the potential of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DM) in unsupervised learning of the modular attributes. We build a theoretical framework that connects the diffusion time-steps and the hidden attributes, which serves as an effective inductive bias for unsupervised learning. Specifically, the forward diffusion process incrementally adds Gaussian noise to samples at each time-step, which essentially collapses different samples into similar ones by losing attributes, e.g., fine-grained attributes such as texture are lost with less noise added (i.e., early time-steps), while coarse-grained ones such as shape are lost by adding more noise (i.e., late time-steps). To disentangle the modular attributes, at each time-step t, we learn a t-specific feature to compensate for the newly lost attribute, and the set of all {1,...,t}-specific features, corresponding to the cumulative set of lost attributes, are trained to make up for the reconstruction error of a pre-trained DM at time-step t. On CelebA, FFHQ, and Bedroom datasets, the learned feature significantly improves attribute classification and enables faithful counterfactual generation, e.g., interpolating only one specified attribute between two images, validating the disentanglement quality. Codes are in https://github.com/yue-zhongqi/diti.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain, achieving performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks. Notably, FITS accomplishes this with a svelte profile of just about $10k$ parameters, making it ideally suited for edge devices and paving the way for a wide range of applications. The code is available for review at: \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FITS}.

Distribution shifts over time are common in real-world machine-learning applications. This scenario is formulated as Evolving Domain Generalization (EDG), where models aim to generalize well to unseen target domains in a time-varying system by learning and leveraging the underlying evolving pattern of the distribution shifts across domains. However, existing methods encounter challenges due to the limited number of timestamps (every domain corresponds to a timestamp) in EDG datasets, leading to difficulties in capturing evolving dynamics and risking overfitting to the sparse timestamps, which hampers their generalization and adaptability to new tasks. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach SDE-EDG that collects the Infinitely Fined-Grid Evolving Trajectory (IFGET) of the data distribution with continuous-interpolated samples to bridge temporal gaps (intervals between two successive timestamps). Furthermore, by leveraging the inherent capacity of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to capture continuous trajectories, we propose their use to align SDE-modeled trajectories with IFGET across domains, thus enabling the capture of evolving distribution trends. We evaluate our approach on several benchmark datasets and demonstrate that it can achieve superior performance compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

With the continuous advancement of neural network methodologies, time series prediction has attracted substantial interest over the past decades. Nonetheless, the interpretability of neural networks is insufficient and the utilization of deep learning techniques for prediction necessitates significant computational expenditures, rendering its application arduous in numerous scenarios. In order to tackle this challenge, an interpretable sparse system identification method which does not require a time-consuming training through back-propagation is proposed in this study. This method integrates advantages from both knowledge-based and data-driven approaches, and constructs dictionary functions by leveraging Fourier basis and taking into account both the long-term trends and the short-term fluctuations behind data. By using the $l_1$ norm for sparse optimization, prediction results can be gained with an explicit sparse expression function and an extremely high accuracy. The performance evaluation of the proposed method is conducted on comprehensive benchmark datasets, including ETT, Exchange, and ILI. Results reveal that our proposed method attains a significant overall improvement of more than 20\% in accordance with the most recent state-of-the-art deep learning methodologies. Additionally, our method demonstrates the efficient training capability on only CPUs. Therefore, this study may shed some light onto the realm of time series reconstruction and prediction.