ICLR 2023 Papers

How to detect a small community in a large network is an interesting problem, including clique detection as a special case, where a naive degree-based $\chi^2$-test was shown to be powerful in the presence of an Erdös-Renyi (ER) background. Using Sinkhorn's theorem, we show that the signal captured by the $\chi^2$-test may be a modeling artifact, and it may disappear once we replace the Erdös-Renyi model by a broader network model. We show that the recent SgnQ test is more appropriate for such a setting. The test is optimal in detecting communities with sizes comparable to the whole network, but has never been studied for our setting, which is substantially different and more challenging. Using a degree-corrected block model (DCBM), we establish phase transitions of this testing problem concerning the size of the small community and the edge densities in small and large communities. When the size of the small community is larger than $\sqrt{n}$, the SgnQ test is optimal for it attains the computational lower bound (CLB), the information lower bound for methods allowing polynomial computation time. When the size of the small community is smaller than $\sqrt{n}$, we establish the parameter regime where the SgnQ test has full power and make some conjectures of the CLB. We also study the classical information lower bound (LB) and show that there is always a gap between the CLB and LB in our range of interest.

Outlier exposure (OE) is powerful in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, enhancing detection capability via model fine-tuning with surrogate OOD data. However, surrogate data typically deviate from test OOD data. Thus, the performance of OE when facing unseen OOD data, can be weaken. To address this issue, we propose a novel OE-based approach that makes the model perform well for unseen OOD situations, even for unseen OOD cases. It leads to a min-max learning scheme---searching to synthesize OOD data that leads to worst judgments and learning from such OOD data for the uniform performance in OOD detection. In our realization, these worst OOD data are synthesized by transforming original surrogate ones, where the associated transform functions are learned implicitly based on our novel insight that model perturbation leads to data transformation. Our methodology offers an efficient way of synthesizing OOD data, which can further benefit the detection model, besides the surrogate OOD data. We conduct extensive experiments under various OOD detection setups, demonstrating the effectiveness of our method against its advanced counterparts.

In this paper, we introduce the notion of replicable policies in the context of stochastic bandits, one of the canonical problems in interactive learning. A policy in the bandit environment is called replicable if it pulls, with high probability, the exact same sequence of arms in two different and independent executions (i.e., under independent reward realizations). We show that not only do replicable policies exist, but also they achieve almost the same optimal (non-replicable) regret bounds in terms of the time horizon. More specifically, in the stochastic multi-armed bandits setting, we develop a policy with an optimal problem-dependent regret bound whose dependence on the replicability parameter is also optimal. Similarly, for stochastic linear bandits (with finitely and infinitely many arms) we develop replicable policies that achieve the best-known problem-independent regret bounds with an optimal dependency on the replicability parameter. Our results show that even though randomization is crucial for the exploration-exploitation trade-off, an optimal balance can still be achieved while pulling the exact same arms in two different rounds of executions.

Time series classification is an important problem in the real world. Due to its non-stationary property that the distribution changes over time, it remains challenging to build models for generalization to unseen distributions. In this paper, we propose to view time series classification from the distribution perspective. We argue that the temporal complexity of a time series dataset could attribute to unknown latent distributions that need characterize. To this end, we propose DIVERSIFY for out-of-distribution (OOD) representation learning on dynamic distributions of times series. DIVERSIFY takes an iterative process: it first obtains the ‘worst-case’ latent distribution scenario via adversarial training, then reduces the gap between these latent distributions. We then show that such an algorithm is theoretically supported. Extensive experiments are conducted on seven datasets with different OOD settings across gesture recognition, speech commands recognition, wearable stress and affect detection, and sensor-based human activity recognition. Qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate that DIVERSIFY significantly outperforms other baselines and effectively characterizes the latent distributions. Code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/robustlearn.

Careful prompt design is critical to the use of large language models in zero-shot or few-shot learning. As a consequence, there is a growing interest in automated methods to design optimal prompts. In this work, we propose Test-time Prompt Editing using Reinforcement learning (TEMPERA). In contrast to prior prompt generation methods, TEMPERA can efficiently leverage prior knowledge, is adaptive to different queries and provides an interpretable prompt for every query. To achieve this, we design a novel action space that allows flexible editing of the initial prompts covering a wide set of commonly-used components like instructions, few-shot exemplars, and verbalizers. The proposed method achieves significant gains compared with recent SoTA approaches like prompt tuning, AutoPrompt, and RLPrompt, across a variety of tasks including sentiment analysis, topic classification, natural language inference, and reading comprehension. Our method achieves 5.33x on average improvement in sample efficiency when compared to the traditional fine-tuning methods.

Anomaly detection in time-series has a wide range of practical applications. While numerous anomaly detection methods have been proposed in the literature, a recent survey concluded that no single method is the most accurate across various datasets. To make matters worse, anomaly labels are scarce and rarely available in practice. The practical problem of selecting the most accurate model for a given dataset without labels has received little attention in the literature. This paper answers this question \textit{i.e.} Given an unlabeled dataset and a set of candidate anomaly detectors, how can we select the most accurate model? To this end, we identify three classes of surrogate (unsupervised) metrics, namely, \textit{prediction error}, \textit{model centrality}, and \textit{performance on injected synthetic anomalies}, and show that some metrics are highly correlated with standard supervised anomaly detection performance metrics such as the $F_1$ score, but to varying degrees. We formulate metric combination with multiple imperfect surrogate metrics as a robust rank aggregation problem. We then provide theoretical justification behind the proposed approach. Large-scale experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed unsupervised approach is as effective as selecting the most accurate model based on partially labeled data.

A proper parametrization of state transition matrices of linear state-space models (SSMs) followed by standard nonlinearities enables them to efficiently learn representations from sequential data, establishing the state-of-the-art on an extensive series of long-range sequence modeling benchmarks. In this paper, we show that we can improve further when the structured SSM, such as S4, is given by a linear liquid time-constant (LTC) state-space model. LTC neural networks are causal continuous-time neural networks with an input-dependent state transition module, which makes them learn to adapt to incoming inputs at inference. We show that by using a diagonal plus low-rank decomposition of the state transition matrix introduced in S4, and a few simplifications, the LTC-based structured state-space model, dubbed Liquid-S4, improves generalization across sequence modeling tasks with long-term dependencies such as image, text, audio, and medical time-series, with an average performance of 87.32\% on the Long-Range Arena benchmark. On the full raw Speech Command recognition dataset, Liquid-S4 achieves 96.78\% accuracy with a 30\% reduction in parameter counts compared to S4. The additional gain in performance is the direct result of the Liquid-S4's kernel structure that takes into account the similarities of the input sequence samples during training and inference.

Fully test-time adaptation aims at adapting a pre-trained model to the test stream during real-time inference, which is urgently required when the test distribution differs from the training distribution. Several efforts have been devoted to improving adaptation performance. However, we find that two unfavorable defects are concealed in the prevalent adaptation methodologies like test-time batch normalization (BN) and self-learning. First, we reveal that the normalization statistics in test-time BN are completely affected by the currently received test samples, resulting in inaccurate estimates. Second, we show that during test-time adaptation, the parameter update is biased towards some dominant classes. In addition to the extensively studied test stream with independent and class-balanced samples, we further observe that the defects can be exacerbated in more complicated test environments, such as (time) dependent or class-imbalanced data. We observe that previous approaches work well in certain scenarios while show performance degradation in others due to their faults. In this paper, we provide a plug-in solution called DELTA for Degradation-freE fuLly Test-time Adaptation, which consists of two components: (i) Test-time Batch Renormalization (TBR), introduced to improve the estimated normalization statistics. (ii) Dynamic Online re-weighTing (DOT), designed to address the class bias within optimization. We investigate various test-time adaptation methods on three commonly used datasets with four scenarios, and a newly introduced real-world dataset. DELTA can help them deal with all scenarios simultaneously, leading to SOTA performance.

This work studies the threats of adversarial attack on multivariate probabilistic forecasting models and viable defense mechanisms. Our studies discover a new attack pattern that negatively impact the forecasting of a target time series via making strategic, sparse (imperceptible) modifications to the past observations of a small number of other time series. To mitigate the impact of such attack, we have developed two defense strategies. First, we extend a previously developed randomized smoothing technique in classification to multivariate forecasting scenarios. Second, we develop an adversarial training algorithm that learns to create adversarial examples and at the same time optimizes the forecasting model to improve its robustness against such adversarial simulation. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets confirm that our attack schemes are powerful and our defense algorithms are more effective compared with baseline defense mechanisms.

The mean-field Langevin dynamics is characterized by a stochastic differential equation that arises from (noisy) gradient descent on an infinite-width two-layer neural network, which can be viewed as an interacting particle system. In this work, we establish a quantitative weak propagation of chaos result for the system, with a finite-particle discretization error of $\mathcal{O}(1/N)$ \textit{uniformly over time}, where $N$ is the width of the neural network. This allows us to directly transfer the optimization guarantee for infinite-width networks to practical finite-width models without excessive overparameterization. On the technical side, our analysis differs from most existing studies on similar mean field dynamics in that we do not require the interaction between particles to be sufficiently weak to obtain a uniform propagation of chaos, because such assumptions may not be satisfied in neural network optimization. Instead, we make use of a logarithmic Sobolev-type condition which can be verified in appropriate regularized risk minimization settings.

Continuous-time (CT) modeling has proven to provide improved sample efficiency and interpretability in learning the dynamical behavior of physical systems compared to discrete-time (DT) models. However, even with numerous recent developments, the CT nonlinear state-space (NL-SS) model identification problem remains to be solved in full, considering common experimental aspects such as the presence of external inputs, measurement noise, latent states, and general robustness. This paper presents a novel estimation method that addresses all these aspects and that can obtain state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks with compact fully connected neural networks capturing the CT dynamics. The proposed estimation method called the subspace encoder approach (SUBNET) ascertains these results by efficiently approximating the complete simulation loss by evaluating short simulations on subsections of the data, by using an encoder function to estimate the initial state for each subsection and a novel state-derivative normalization to ensure stability and good numerical conditioning of the training process. We prove that the use of subsections increases cost function smoothness together with the necessary requirements for the existence of the encoder function and we show that the proposed state-derivative normalization is essential for reliable estimation of CT NL-SS models.

It is well known that the finite step-size ($h$) in Gradient descent (GD) implicitly regularizes solutions to flatter minimas. A natural question to ask is \textit{Does the momentum parameter $\beta$ (say) play a role in implicit regularization in Heavy-ball (H.B) momentum accelerated gradient descent (GD+M)?}. To answer this question, first, we show that the trajectory traced by discrete H.B momentum update (GD+M) is $O(h^2)$ close to a continuous trajectory induced by a modified loss, which consists of an original loss and an implicit regularizer. This implicit regularizer for (GD+M) is indeed stronger than that of (GD) by factor of $(\frac{1+\beta}{1-\beta})$, thus explaining why (GD+M) shows better generalization performance and higher test accuracy than (GD). Furthermore, we extend our analysis to stochastic version of gradient descent with momentum (SGD+M) and propose a deterministic continuous trajectory that is $O(h^2)$ close to the discrete update of (SGD+M) in a strong approximation sense. We explore the implicit regularization in (SGD+M) and (GD+M) through a series of experiments validating our theory.

Causal discovery from time-series data has been a central task in machine learning. Recently, Granger causality inference is gaining momentum due to its good explainability and high compatibility with emerging deep neural networks. However, most existing methods assume structured input data and degenerate greatly when encountering data with randomly missing entries or non-uniform sampling frequencies, which hampers their applications in real scenarios. To address this issue, here we present CUTS, a neural Granger causal discovery algorithm to jointly impute unobserved data points and build causal graphs, via plugging in two mutually boosting modules in an iterative framework: (i) Latent data prediction stage: designs a Delayed Supervision Graph Neural Network (DSGNN) to hallucinate and register unstructured data which might be of high dimension and with complex distribution; (ii) Causal graph fitting stage: builds a causal adjacency matrix with imputed data under sparse penalty. Experiments show that CUTS effectively infers causal graphs from irregular time-series data, with significantly superior performance to existing methods. Our approach constitutes a promising step towards applying causal discovery to real applications with non-ideal observations.

This paper addresses learning end-to-end models for time series data that include a temporal alignment step via dynamic time warping (DTW). Existing approaches to differentiable DTW either differentiate through a fixed warping path or apply a differentiable relaxation to the min operator found in the recursive steps used to solve the DTW problem. We instead propose a DTW layer based around bi-level optimisation and deep declarative networks, which we name DecDTW. By formulating DTW as a continuous, inequality constrained optimisation problem, we can compute gradients for the solution of the optimal alignment (with respect to the underlying time series) using implicit differentiation. An interesting byproduct of this formulation is that DecDTW outputs the optimal warping path between two time series as opposed to a soft approximation, recoverable from Soft-DTW. We show that this property is particularly useful for applications where downstream loss functions are defined on the optimal alignment path itself. This naturally occurs, for instance, when learning to improve the accuracy of predicted alignments against ground truth alignments. We evaluate DecDTW on two such applications, namely the audio-to-score alignment task in music information retrieval and the visual place recognition task in robotics, demonstrating state-of-the-art results in both.

Under mild conditions on the network initialization we derive a power series expansion for the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) of arbitrarily deep feedforward networks in the infinite width limit. We provide expressions for the coefficients of this power series which depend on both the Hermite coefficients of the activation function as well as the depth of the network. We observe faster decay of the Hermite coefficients leads to faster decay in the NTK coefficients and explore the role of depth. Using this series, first we relate the effective rank of the NTK to the effective rank of the input-data Gram. Second, for data drawn uniformly on the sphere we study the eigenvalues of the NTK, analyzing the impact of the choice of activation function. Finally, for generic data and activation functions with sufficiently fast Hermite coefficient decay, we derive an asymptotic upper bound on the spectrum of the NTK.

Temporal networks model a variety of important phenomena involving timed interactions between entities. Existing methods for machine learning on temporal networks generally exhibit at least one of two limitations. First, many methods assume time to be discretized, so if the time data is continuous, the user must determine the discretization and discard precise time information. Second, edge representations can only be calculated indirectly from the nodes, which may be suboptimal for tasks like edge classification. We present a simple method that avoids both shortcomings: construct the line graph of the network, which includes a node for each interaction, and weigh the edges of this graph based on the difference in time between interactions. From this derived graph, edge representations for the original network can be computed with efficient classical methods. The simplicity of this approach facilitates explicit theoretical analysis: we can constructively show the effectiveness of our method's representations for a natural synthetic model of temporal networks. Empirical results on real-world networks demonstrate our method's efficacy and efficiency on both link classification and prediction.

A temporal point process (TPP) is a stochastic process where its realization is a sequence of discrete events in time. Recent work in TPPs model the process using a neural network in a supervised learning framework, where a training set is a collection of all the sequences. In this work, we propose to train TPPs in a meta learning framework, where each sequence is treated as a different task, via a novel framing of TPPs as neural processes (NPs). We introduce context sets to model TPPs as an instantiation of NPs. Motivated by attentive NP, we also introduce local history matching to help learn more informative features. We demonstrate the potential of the proposed method on popular public benchmark datasets and tasks, and compare with state-of-the-art TPP methods.

Moir$\acute{e}$ patterns appear frequently when taking photos of digital screens, drastically degrading the image quality. Despite the advance of CNNs in image demoir$\acute{e}$ing, existing networks are with heavy design, causing massive computation burden for mobile devices. In this paper, we launch the first study on accelerating demoir$\acute{e}$ing networks and propose a dynamic demoir$\acute{e}$ing acceleration method (DDA) towards a real-time deployment on mobile devices. Our stimulus stems from a simple-yet-universal fact that moir${\'e}$ patterns often unbalancedly distribute across an image. Consequently, excessive computation is wasted upon non-moir$\acute{e}$ areas. Therefore, we reallocate computation costs in proportion to the complexity of image patches. In order to achieve this aim, we measure the complexity of an image patch by a novel moir$\acute{e}$ prior that considers both colorfulness and frequency information of moir$\acute{e}$ patterns. Then, we restore higher-complex image patches using larger networks and the lower-complex ones are assigned with smaller networks to relieve the computation burden. At last, we train all networks in a parameter-shared supernet paradigm to avoid additional parameter burden. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks demonstrate the efficacy of our DDA. In addition, the acceleration evaluated on the VIVO X80 Pro smartphone equipped with the chip of Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 also shows that our method can drastically reduce the inference time, leading to a real-time image demoir$\acute{e}$ing on mobile devices. Source codes and models are released at https://github.com/zyxxmu/DDA.

Conditional neural processes (CNPs; Garnelo et al., 2018a) are attractive meta-learning models which produce well-calibrated predictions and are trainable via a simple maximum likelihood procedure. Although CNPs have many advantages, they are unable to model dependencies in their predictions. Various works propose solutions to this, but these come at the cost of either requiring approximate inference or being limited to Gaussian predictions. In this work, we instead propose to change how CNPs are deployed at test time, without any modifications to the model or training procedure. Instead of making predictions independently for every target point, we autoregressively define a joint predictive distribution using the chain rule of probability, taking inspiration from the neural autoregressive density estimator (NADE) literature. We show that this simple procedure allows factorised Gaussian CNPs to model highly dependent, non-Gaussian predictive distributions. Perhaps surprisingly, in an extensive range of tasks with synthetic and real data, we show that CNPs in autoregressive (AR) mode not only significantly outperform non-AR CNPs, but are also competitive with more sophisticated models that are significantly more computationally expensive and challenging to train. This performance is remarkable given that AR CNPs are not trained to model joint dependencies. Our work provides an example of how ideas from neural distribution estimation can benefit neural processes, and motivates research into the AR deployment of other neural process models.