AI 顶会论文

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arXiv

A Single Suffix to Break Them All: Basin-Aware Jailbreaks for Merged Model Families

Yu Zhe, Yixin Tan, Junhao Wei, WANG CHEN

Model merging enables combining multiple fine-tuned models without additional training, but its safety implications remain poorly understood. Prior work primarily attributes merging risks to unsafe constituent models, implicitly assuming that merging individually aligned models preserves safety. In contrast, we show that model merging reveals a previously overlooked jailbreak risk rooted in the pretrained foundation model, even when all constituent models are individually safety-aligned. Motivated by this observation, we study a new threat setting where an attacker constructs jailbreak prompts that generalize across merged models sharing the same pretrained backbone, without access to the exact merging coefficients or constituent checkpoints. To exploit this phenomenon, we propose \textbf{Basin-Aware Jailbreak (BAJ)}, which formulates jailbreak generation as a min--max optimization over the merging space to produce transferable adversarial suffixes across merged model families. Experiments across diverse backbones and merging settings show that BAJ achieves consistently high transfer success rates and remains effective under existing defenses.

arXiv

Zero-Shot Self-Orchestration with Ledger-Based Control for Improved LLM Coding Performance

Victor Gao, Vida Khosrowshahi, Ali Khosrowshahi, Xihao Sun, Juhyun Lee, Simon, Lee

Multi-agent large language model systems are widely reported to beat single-model baselines, but the evidence is mixed, and comparisons are usually confounded: pipelines change token budgets, tool calls, and prompts simultaneously, so an aggregate gain rarely reveals what actually helped. We investigate the effect of introducing the manager-worker scaffold over a shared filesystem workspace, with no training and no per-benchmark tuning, measured against the same model answering in a single pass. Across nine models -- five open-weight, spanning 9B to ~2.8T parameters, and four frontier closed models -- on the 100 latest hard LiveCodeBench problems, the scaffold's benefit is real but conditional: large and statistically significant for some (Qwen3.8-27B +23.4, GPT-5.6-Luna +10.6 and GPT-5.6-Terra +8.0, each over five paired passes; Kimi-K3 +30.4 and Minimax-M3 +11.0 over five paired passes with reasoning off, both at $p < 10^{-4}$, and +42 and +12 in a single pass at a 128k cap) and null or negative for others (Qwen3.6-35B -1 to -9 with reasoning off). With the manager, Opus-5 achieves the highest score in the study at 91% in one pass. Running a manager roughly triples the token bill, but it buys accuracy more cheaply than moving to a larger model does: GPT-5.6-Terra with a manager nearly matches Fable 5's single-call accuracy (85.0 against 87.4, $p = 0.59$) at a fifth of the price (\$11.71 against \$61.11 per 100-problem pass, $p < 10^{-4}$), and the Qwen-27B arm does it for \$51.75 on weights anyone can self-host. Our transcript analysis finds several mechanisms behind the gains, of which two recur: context management, in which short worker calls and shared notes organize state and reduce truncation, and problem decomposition. Improvements are modest for large models with reasoning enabled, but larger for some models with reasoning disabled and for smaller models with reasoning enabled.

arXiv

VISA: Agentic Self-Evolving Data Synthesis for Multimodal Instruction Following

Min Zeng, Guanxin Tan, Libin Cen, Yafei Wen, Rui Hu, Liuyang Bian, Xiaolong Chen, Xiaoxin Chen

Multimodal instruction-following models require training data that is accurate, diverse, verifiable, and challenging. Existing synthesis pipelines typically follow a one-pass generate-and-filter paradigm, discarding feedback from failed samples, verifier outcomes, and target-model errors. We present VISA (Visual Instruction Synthesis Agent), an agentic framework that reformulates multimodal instruction synthesis as a self-evolving loop. At each round, VISA analyzes an image to filter incompatible constraints and discover new verifiable ones, samples diversity- and difficulty-aware constraint sets from persistent memory, generates candidate instructions, and verifies the resulting samples with executable tools and structured large language model judges. Failed samples trigger diagnostic-guided recovery, while accepted samples are probed against the target model to estimate difficulty. The resulting verifier signals and target-model failure profiles are written back to memory, allowing subsequent rounds to adaptively expand the constraint space, reduce template repetition, and focus on unresolved model weaknesses. The same verifier contracts further provide reward signals for reinforcement learning without a separately trained reward model. Experiments on MM-IFEval show that VISA consistently improves multimodal instruction following over strong baselines, while preserving general multimodal capability across seven public benchmarks.

arXiv

Unveiling Spectral Mechanisms in Training-Free LLM Text Detection

Haitong Luo, Xuying Meng, Weiyao Zhang, Wenji Zou, Shengfeng Lou, Xuefeng Jiang, Chungang Lin, Yujun Zhang

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) makes it increasingly difficult to distinguish human writing from machine-generated text. Training-free detection offers a scalable solution, yet common confidence-based metrics mainly measure average token probabilities and often miss the signal fluctuations that characterize human writing, which we call "generative vitality". Spectral analysis offers a way to capture this vitality, but its mechanism and practical boundaries remain underexplored. In this paper, we analyze spectral detection from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We connect spectral energy to variance in proxy log-probability trajectories and explain how broader human token choices create the fluctuations used by frequency-domain indicators. We further show that the strength of this signal depends on text length and sampling range: spectral evidence is clearest for long, continuous, constrained generation, while short, fragmented, mixed, and edited settings require complementary confidence and fluctuation views. These findings clarify when frequency-domain detection works and provide guidance for future multi-dimensional detector design.

arXiv

Learning New Facts with QLoRA: An Acquisition-Retention Frontier

Estelle Zheng, Sébastien Warichet, Emmanuel Helbert, Christophe Cerisara

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning is often assumed to preserve pretrained capabilities because it updates only a small number of parameters. We show that this assumption depends strongly on adapter capacity. We study factual acquisition in a controlled OpenStreetMap-derived benchmark where Qwen3-4B must acquire anonymized geographic associations while retaining unrelated capabilities. Comparing full fine-tuning (FFT) with quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) at ranks 8, 16, 32, and 64, we find that rank induces a clear acquisition--retention frontier. Low-rank QLoRA preserves out-of-domain (OOD) performance but acquires fewer facts, whereas higher ranks improve same-fact paraphrase generalization at an increasing cost in performance on unrelated benchmarks. FFT behaves as a conservative baseline: it retains general capabilities well, but does not reach the highest factual-acquisition regime. Distributional, weight-space, and spectral diagnostics mirror this behavioral trade-off, with higher-rank QLoRA moving farther from the pretrained model. A separate math adaptation experiment shows a weaker frontier, suggesting that the effect is most pronounced when adaptation must install new factual associations rather than reinforce skills already supported by pretraining. Code and data are available at https://github.com/zhngstl/new_facts_forgetting.

arXiv

A Token-Level Analysis of Sampled-Token Reverse-KL On-Policy Distillation

Bing Shao, Jiazheng Zhang, Long Ma, Yujiong Shen, Senjie Jin, Xin Guo, Yuming Yang, Mingxu Chai, Zhiheng Xi, Boyang Liu, Junlin Shang, Tao Gui, Qi Zhang, Xuanjing Huang

On-policy distillation (OPD) supervises a student on its own trajectories with token-level signals from a frozen teacher, yet how a sampled loss allocates updates across tokens remains poorly understood. We analyze the gradient of the per-token K2 estimator of reverse KL with respect to the student logits. The $\ell_1$ norm of this gradient factorizes into the absolute teacher--student log-probability gap and a student-side softmax factor that grows as the sampled token becomes less likely under the student. In our math-distillation runs, these per-token norms are highly non-uniform: low-student-probability tokens account for a disproportionate share of their sum and are also enriched in large teacher--student gaps. As a lightweight intervention suggested by this analysis, we study Surprise-aware Reweighting (SuRe), a detached, bounded weighting rule that further amplifies this existing allocation. Across two Qwen3 student scales, SuRe improves several math metrics over vanilla OPD and shows no clear degradation on the selected out-of-domain benchmarks. Our primary contribution is therefore a gradient-level characterization of reverse-KL OPD trained with the K2 estimator, with SuRe as one empirical instantiation.

arXiv

When Stale Constraints Go Unchecked: Budgeted Verification Failures in Inherited Agent Memory

Kazuki Nakayashiki

Provenance links keep the evidence behind an inherited belief reachable; an agent with a verification budget must still choose which links to inspect. We study a consolidated memory that states a decision constraint and whose source record has since been superseded by a record that withdraws it: provenance is immutable, the current record has changed, and the memory is stale. In a controlled six-memory scenario with a budget of two records, sixteen language models rarely re-verified a constraint that read as settled: they inspected its provenance path in about one episode in five and, once the constraint had been superseded, produced stale-consistent decisions in 77.3%, 74.7% and 74.7% of episodes across a primary run, a replication and a held-out domain. Re-assigning one of the same two slots to the critical path removed most of them: +74.0, +72.7 and +61.3 points (positive in every model), +80.7 in a prospectively frozen interleaved replication with a repaired non-critical control, and +62.0 on a panel of 10 models from 9 organisations; a corrected re-run of the held-out scenario gave +73.3. The forced-critical policy uses experimenter knowledge of the critical path: it quantifies how much stale-decision risk the same budget can recover and is not a scheduler. Two further deposited experiments locate the failure and a remedy: in this store the constraint's path is selected in 17.0% of episodes at two slots and 88.7% at four of six (above uniform allocation), and at two slots a one-sentence, target-blind rule (prefer memories that state a limit on a candidate direction) moved the agent's own allocation onto the constraint's path and recovered the oracle contrast on decisions (+89.3 points) where that constraint limits the tempting action, while a content-free freshness cue did not materially redirect allocation and a content-matched control rule changed neither selection nor decisions.

arXiv

ClueWeaver: Reward-Guided Dual-Agent Evidence Reasoning for Compact LLMs on Literary Long Narratives

Jihao Zhu, Zhiwei Yang, Wenxiao Zhang, Junqian Zhao, Qi You, Fangqi Wang, Zheyuan Deng, Hanzhe Yang, Yu Liu, Jin B. Hong

Humanities and social science research requires close reading of long narrative materials such as novels, scripts, archives, and case reports, yet many users have limited access to costly proprietary long-context models. Compact, locally deployable language models are a practical alternative, but directly feeding them an entire long context remains costly, hard to inspect, and prone to missing sparse evidence. We present ClueWeaver, an evidence-aware dual-agent framework for long-narrative question answering with compact local models. A Finder identifies passages containing answer-critical clues through retrieval-guided segmentation, while an Interpreter derives the answer from the selected evidence, produces rationales with paragraph-ID citations, and applies an internal self-calibration pass for high-risk questions. Both agents are optimized with reward-guided reinforcement learning: Finder rewards emphasize evidence retention and faithful paragraph-ID references, and Interpreter rewards emphasize correctness, grounding, and concise explanations. This decomposition makes evidence selection and reasoning more inspectable than end-to-end prompting. Experiments across multiple long-context narrative question answering and claim verification settings show that ClueWeaver substantially improves local end-to-end language models while providing evidence coverage and paragraph-referenced reasoning traces. Code is available at https://github.com/Ameame1/ClueWeaver.

arXiv

DataKernelBench: Can LLMs Optimize Database Queries on GPUs?

Gokul Karthik Kumar, Yotam Perlitz, Corey Lammie, Andrea Giovannini, Katja Hose

GPUs increasingly accelerate database systems, but query-specific peak performance still often relies on hand-written kernels. Existing LLM kernel benchmarks focus on machine learning operators, leaving irregular, heterogeneous, data-movement-heavy database-style operators untested. We introduce DataKernelBench, which translates SQL into validated PyTorch TorchPlan programs and evaluates LLMs that optimize either the core tensor-bounded snippet or the full query in CUDA or Triton through execution-guided repair. Across ten proprietary and open-weight models on TPC-H SF10 with an H100 GPU, the strongest full-query CUDA configuration achieves $2.11\times$ speedup over the TorchPlan baseline at full pass rate. We find that higher-performing implementations commonly use kernel fusion and execution-strategy changes, stronger models benefit most from full-query specialization, and workload context matters more than hardware context. To handle data larger than GPU memory, we extend TorchPlan with Dask-cuDF for on-demand partition loading on TPC-H SF100 with four H100 GPUs, achieving $2.54\times$ speedup. Project page: https://kerneldf.github.io/datakernelbench

arXiv

Unsupervised Post-Training of Foundation Models: A Survey

Yijie Xu, Qianyi Cai, Huizai Yao, Yili Wang, Tianfu Wang, Cehao Yang, Xingbo Yao, Zhiyu Guo, Aiwei Liu, Xuming Hu, Weiyu Guo, Hui Xiong

Foundation-model post-training usually relies on human labels, preference data, stronger teachers, or executable verifiers. We study Unsupervised Post-Training (UPT): update-bearing adaptation on unlabeled inputs whose learning signal is derived from same-lineage model artifacts rather than an external oracle. We catalog 80 strict UPT methods and organize them by the object that supplies the update signal: a prediction statistic, a sample relation, a self-generated target, or an internal evaluator. Beyond inventory, we show how the choice of internal signal and task structure determines whether post-training improves the model or recursively amplifies error. An orthogonal Input Visibility $\times$ Update Persistence view maps deployment regimes and defines a unified framework for UPT selection and evaluation.

arXiv

Retrieved But Not Reliable: A Survey on Attacks, and Defenses in Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Minh Tran, Cuong Dang, Tuc Nguyen, Khanh-Tung Tran, Minh Huynh Nguyen, Trinh Chau, Kien Le, Do Xuan Long, Jiahao Zhang, Fali Wang, Hoang D. Nguyen, Thanh Le, Suhang Wang

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) enhances large language models by grounding outputs in external knowledge, improving factuality and reducing hallucinations. At the same time, the retrieval-augmented pipeline introduces new robustness and security risks, including corpus poisoning, backdoor attacks, privacy leakage, and fairness violations. Despite rapid progress in this area, existing surveys remain limited in their treatment of attacker objectives, threat models, and stage-specific defenses across the full RAG pipeline. This survey presents a unified and pipeline-aware overview of RAG robustness. We formalize threat models over the corpus, retriever, and generator, and organize attacks into three main objectives: accuracy, privacy, and fairness. We further review defenses from a pipeline-aware perspective, covering the retrieval, rerank, generation, and traceback stages. In addition, we summarize robustness benchmarks and explainability methods for more deeply evaluating and explaining RAG robustness.

arXiv

RePolicy: Reinforcement Learning for Safety-Policy Invocation in Agent Safeguards

Houcheng Jiang, Boxuan Zhang, Qiyong Zhong, Junfeng Fang, Xiang Wang, Xiangnan He

Safeguarding language model agents requires assessing complete execution trajectories under context-dependent safety policies. Existing policy-aware safeguards mainly rely on prompting or supervised fine-tuning, limiting their ability to adapt to unseen trajectories and changing policy contexts. We propose RePolicy, an agent safeguard that learns safety-policy invocation through reinforcement learning. Given an agent trajectory and a dynamic policy library, RePolicy invokes the applicable policy and uses its content to produce a policy-grounded rationale and safety judgment. We construct PolicyTraj-20K to support supervised initialization, followed by GRPO with verifiable rewards and policy-context perturbation. Experiments across six agent safety benchmarks show that RePolicy achieves strong overall safety-detection performance and robust policy invocation under varying policy contexts.

arXiv

FireRedAudio: A General-Purpose Audio Language Model with Decoupled Continuous Representations for Understanding and Generation

Feiyu Shen, Fenglong Xie, Junjie Li, Kun Xie, Lei Xie, Xu Tang, Xuelong Geng, Yan Jia, Yao Hu, Yichen Han, Yichen Wu, Ziqi Dai, Junjie Chen, Kai Huang, Manzhen Wei, Yixuan Li

A unified audio model must recognize and understand linguistic, paralinguistic, and environmental information while supporting speech synthesis and editing. A key challenge is representation: understanding favors compact features suited to long-context modeling, whereas speech generation requires reconstructible features that preserve fine-grained acoustic detail. We introduce FireRedAudio, a general-purpose audio language model with a shared 9B-parameter LLM. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first publicly disclosed unified audio-language model to provide separate continuous input representations for understanding and generation within a single trainable autoregressive LLM. Audio to be recognized or analyzed is processed by a dedicated Audio Encoder, while speech inputs for generation use a RedAE-based pathway. The LLM directly generates text or conditions a flow-matching DiT to produce continuous acoustic latents. Through progressive multitask training, FireRedAudio supports ASR and audio understanding, with the latter extending to recordings of up to one hour, as well as zero-shot TTS, Instruct TTS, and semantic and acoustic speech editing. Its structured organization of long-form audio achieves second-level timestamp accuracy. Across comprehensive evaluations, FireRedAudio achieves competitive or leading performance in audio understanding and multilingual ASR, strong content accuracy and speaker preservation in zero-shot TTS, leading instruction following in Instruct TTS, and substantial improvements over Ming-UniAudio-Edit in both semantic and acoustic speech editing. These results demonstrate the viability of decoupled continuous input representations for unifying audio understanding and continuous-latent speech generation in a model of moderate scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/FireRedTeam/FireRedAudio.

arXiv

The Limits of Automatic Evaluation of Creativity in Large Language Models

Alessandro Tutone, Giorgio Franceschelli, Mirco Musolesi

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of generating text that challenges human performance in domains requiring creativity, yet evaluating creativity in LLM-generated content remains a significant challenge. Here, we investigate whether current automatic evaluation methods can reliably capture human judgments of creativity. We collect human evaluations of human- and AI-generated short stories from the WritingPrompts dataset across 11 dimensions of creativity, and compare these judgments with automated objective metrics and LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations. Our experiments reveal substantial misalignment between automatic evaluations and human assessments. In particular, LLM-based judges exhibit a systematic preference for AI-generated stories, consistently favoring their stylistic characteristics over the unpredictability and other qualities of human-authored texts. Furthermore, correlation analyses show that widely used automatic metrics exhibit near-zero alignment with human judgments across both human- and AI-generated stories, suggesting that they fail to capture important dimensions of creativity. These findings highlight fundamental limitations in current approaches to the automatic evaluation of creative text and underscore the difficulty of reducing the multidimensional and subjective nature of creativity to computational metrics.

arXiv

Language Chain in Alignment: Cross-lingual Ranking Preference Optimization

Seungyoon Lee, Minhyuk Kim, Jungseob Lee, Heuiseok Lim

The alignment of Large Language Models heavily relies on English-centric high-quality preference data, which often leads to suboptimal performance in other languages. In this paper, we propose Cross-lingual Ranking Preference Optimization~(CRPO), a novel framework that leverages robust preference knowledge from English to facilitate preference alignment in the target language. We design a hierarchical structure within parallel preference pairs across the target language and English to jointly optimize intra- and inter-lingual preferences, thereby enhancing language adaptation and output quality. Building on the LambdaLoss framework, CRPO goes beyond the binary comparison based optimization by providing a relative ranking signal across multiple candidate responses. Our experiments across five languages with varying resource scales demonstrate that CRPO consistently outperforms standard approaches in both instruction-following and knowledge utilization capability. Notably, the robust performance gains observed across various weighting schemes further validate the empirical effectiveness of our hierarchical design in a multilingual setup. Furthermore, our findings highlight that CRPO significantly improves both reward margins and the log-probability of desirable responses, contributing to a more stable preference manifold for cross-lingual alignment. Our code is available at https://github.com/dltmddbs100/CRPO.

arXiv

Buried in Textual Debt: Context Pruning with Visual Evidence Preservation for MLLM Agents

Yuchen Huang, Sijia Li, Jun Zhang, Yi R. Fung

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are increasingly deployed as multi-step agents, where explicit reasoning supports task decomposition and tool coordination but also accumulates self-generated text. Over long trajectories, this text can dominate the context and suppress visual evidence, creating textual debt. We observe that reasoning becomes redundant once task-relevant visual evidence is grounded, while stale hypotheses can misguide later inference when grounding remains uncertain. Pruning must therefore remove redundant text without discarding visual evidence. We propose SPARE, a Kullback-Leibler (KL)-guided framework for pruning accumulated reasoning in multimodal tool-use agents. SPARE uses a compact task-state summary as privileged diagnostic context. For each candidate segment, it replays the same model under the original and summary-conditioned contexts. Reverse-KL divergence from on-policy self-distillation (OPSD) then tests whether the summary sufficiently covers the segment without disrupting future reasoning. We further fine-tune the summarizer with supervised fine-tuning (SFT), enabling more compact summaries, broader coverage, and more aggressive pruning. Across multi-step visual tool-use benchmarks, SPARE achieves the highest average accuracy among pruning methods while removing 37.89-64.58\% of reasoning tokens. This favorable accuracy-context trade-off shows that reducing textual dominance restores reliance on visual evidence and mitigates over-conditioning on self-generated language.

arXiv

ExecRubrics: Executable Tool-Augmented Rubrics for Verifiable and Efficient Long-Form Evaluation

Kaustubh D. Dhole, Charles L. A. Clarke, Eugene Y. Agichtein

Rubrics aim to make language-model evaluation transparent by decomposing response quality into interpretable criteria. However, natural-language rubrics are often ambiguous, require LLM judges, and typically assume criteria aggregated through linear weighted sums, limiting their ability to capture dependencies, alternatives, penalties, and override conditions. We propose ExecRubrics, a framework for representing rubrics as compact executable programs. ExecRubrics encodes evaluation logic as verifiable Python scoring functions, giving natural-language rubric intent an operational semantics: a fixed decision procedure that can be inspected, executed, and edited. On three long-form response benchmarks -- HealthBench, HelpSteer, and ArgQuality -- we show that ExecRubrics can recover substantial preference signal without an LLM judge at evaluation time. On ArgQuality and HelpSteer, the strongest executable variants are within 1.1 and 4 percentage points, respectively, of the direct GPT-5.5 agentic baseline. Executable rubrics are also considerably faster, achieving a 192x average speedup. We show that incorporating external logic and resources from text processing libraries such as NLTK and spaCy can further improve preference accuracy. Our results suggest a novel way of approaching automated evaluation, by offering a faster, more explainable, and less ambiguous alternative to black-box rubric evals, particularly in high-stakes domains such as healthcare and banking where precision and auditability are critical.

arXiv

Aligned Alone, Misaligned Together: Forecasting Adversarial Capture in LLM Agent Populations

Isotta Magistrali, Chen Shani

The unit of AI safety evaluation is still the individual model, yet language-model agents are increasingly deployed in interacting populations that read and write one another's decisions. This raises a question no single-agent audit can answer: an agent that is well-calibrated on its own may still be pulled toward a different decision by the agents around it. We study this on a security-triage task, where populations of language-model monitors decide whether to escalate or dismiss alerts, and into which we can inject a committed minority that always pushes one way. We find that two alerts a single agent judges almost identically on its own can drive collective behavior far apart, so auditing any one member need not reveal what the population will do. Yet that collective behavior can be predicted in advance. From a population's benign, adversary-free operation alone, we calibrate a response function that forecasts, before any attack is run, how far a committed minority will later move it. We then ask what shifts the outcome and find that letting agents see each other's reasoning neutralizes a weak attack, while only delaying it against a strong one, turning the question from whether the population converges on the adversaries' choice into when. Finally, we exclude the hypothesis of capture being an irreversible trap: once the committed agents are removed, the population drifts back toward where it began, so capture is a temporary state. Alignment in isolation is not alignment in a population, yet what a population will do under attack can be read in advance, from how it behaves before any adversary arrives.

arXiv

Non-binary bottom-up constituency parsing without arity actions

Jungyeul Park, Eunkyul Leah Jo, Zihao Huang

Non-binary bottom-up constituency parsing commonly uses arity-specific reductions such as \(\textsc{Reduce-}X\#k\), which jointly specify the mother label and number of children. We show that arity need not be a primitive transition parameter. The proposed parser predicts the mother label separately and identifies the ordered child sequence from a delimiter-bounded stack configuration. In every well-formed reducible configuration, the active delimiter, label marker, and intervening completed items uniquely determine the reduction domain and hence its arity. This factorization removes label--arity-specific reduction actions while preserving direct construction of the original non-binary trees. Controlled experiments on PTB and CTB show that the delimiter-guided parser closely tracks an arity-specific baseline while using a substantially smaller action inventory. Its predicted trees retain the gold branching profile without systematic collapse at higher arities. The smaller inventory is obtained at the cost of longer derivations and boundary-sensitive errors involving delimiter insertion, preservation, and consumption.

arXiv

The Score Granularity Gap in Black-Box LLM Classification: A Comparative Study of Confidence Constructions

Ao Sun, Tian Sun, Jiaxing Geng

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as black-box classifiers in pipelines that automate confident decisions and route uncertain ones to human review. Such selective prediction needs a confidence score that an operator can threshold at a chosen risk level. Prior work asks whether LLM confidence is well calibrated or well ranked; we ask a complementary, deployment-oriented question that has been largely overlooked: at what resolution can the score be thresholded? We call the answer the score granularity gap. Through a controlled comparison of seven ways to build a confidence score, from a single verbalized number, to token probabilities, to querying the model many times and combining the answers, across 25 model-dataset pairs (9 LLMs, 3 benchmarks), we find that single-shot verbalized confidence, once correctly converted to a class probability, ranks cases surprisingly well, yet takes only a handful of distinct values. It therefore offers an operator only a few coarse thresholds, no matter how well it ranks. We show which constructions widen this gap, at what inference cost, and with what effect on ranking, notably that multi-query aggregation helps weak models but can degrade already-strong ones. We translate these trade-offs into concrete deployment guidance.

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