On the Limitations of the Elo, Real-World Games are Transitive, not Additive

摘要

The Elo score has been extensively used to rank players by their skill or strength in competitive games such as chess, go, or StarCraft II. The Elo score implicitly assumes games have a strong additive—hence transitive—component. In this paper, we investigate the challenge of identifying transitive components in games. As a starting point, we show that the Elo score provably fails to extract the transitive component of some elementary transitive games. Based on this observation, we propose an alternative ranking system which properly extracts the transitive components in these games. Finally, we conduct an in-depth empirical validation on real-world game payoff matrices: it shows significant prediction performance improvements compared to the Elo score.