处理效应

The weighted controlled direct effect (WCDE) generalizes the standard controlled direct effect (CDE) by averaging over the mediator distribution, providing a robust estimate when treatment effects vary across mediator levels. This makes the WCDE especially relevant in fairness analysis, where it isolates the direct effect of an exposure on an outcome, independent of mediating pathways. In this work, we first establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the unique identifiability of the WCDE, clarifying when it diverges from the CDE. Next, we derive the efficient influence function for the WCDE and consider the class of regular and asymptotically linear estimators. We characterize the optimal covariate adjustment set that minimizes asymptotic variance, demonstrating how mediator-confounder interactions introduce distinct requirements compared to average treatment effect estimation. Our results offer a principled framework for efficient estimation of direct effects in complex causal systems, with practical applications in fairness and mediation analysis.

Existing early and late fusion frameworks in multimodal learning are confronted with the fundamental challenge of modality imbalance, wherein disparities in representational capacities induce inter-modal competition during training. Current research methodologies primarily rely on modality-level contribution assessments to measure gaps in representational capabilities and enhance poorly learned modalities, overlooking the dynamic variations of modality contributions across individual samples. To address this, we propose a Causal-aware Modality valuation approach for Balanced multimodal learning (CMoB). We define a benefit function based on Shannon's theory of informational uncertainty to evaluate the changes in the importance of samples across different stages of multimodal training. Inspired by human cognitive science, we propose a causal-aware modality contribution quantification method from a causal perspective to capture fine-grained changes in modality contribution degrees within samples. In the iterative training of multimodal learning, we develop targeted modal enhancement strategies that dynamically select and optimize modalities based on real-time evaluation of their contribution variations across training samples. Our method enhances the discriminative ability of key modalities and the learning capacity of weak modalities while achieving fine-grained balance in multimodal learning. Extensive experiments on benchmark multimodal datasets and multimodal frameworks demonstrate the superiority of our CMoB approach for balanced multimodal learning.

The optimal transport (OT) map is a geometry-driven transformation between high-dimensional probability distributions which underpins a wide range of tasks in statistics, applied probability, and machine learning. However, existing statistical theory for OT map estimation is quite restricted, hinging on Brenier's theorem (quadratic cost, absolutely continuous source) to guarantee existence and uniqueness of a deterministic OT map, on which various additional regularity assumptions are imposed to obtain quantitative error bounds. In many real‐world problems these conditions fail or cannot be certified, in which case optimal transportation is possible only via stochastic maps that can split mass. To broaden the scope of map estimation theory to such settings, this work introduces a novel metric for evaluating the transportation quality of stochastic maps. Under this metric, we develop computationally efficient map estimators with near-optimal finite-sample risk bounds, subject to easy-to-verify minimal assumptions. Our analysis further accommodates common forms of adversarial sample contamination, yielding estimators with robust estimation guarantees. Empirical experiments are provided which validate our theory and demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework in settings where existing theory fails. These contributions constitute the first general-purpose theory for map estimation, compatible with a wide spectrum of real-world applications where optimal transport may be intrinsically stochastic.

Recent 6D pose estimation methods demonstrate notable performance but still face some practical limitations. For instance, many of them rely heavily on sensor depth, which may fail with challenging surface conditions, such as transparent or highly reflective materials. In the meantime, RGB-based solutions provide less robust matching performance in low-light and texture-less scenes due to the lack of geometry information. Motivated by these, we propose **SingRef6D**, a lightweight pipeline requiring only a **single RGB** image as a reference, eliminating the need for costly depth sensors, multi-view image acquisition, or training view synthesis models and neural fields. This enables SingRef6D to remain robust and capable even under resource-limited settings where depth or dense templates are unavailable. Our framework incorporates two key innovations. First, we propose a token-scaler-based fine-tuning mechanism with a novel optimization loss on top of Depth-Anything v2 to enhance its ability to predict accurate depth, even for challenging surfaces. Our results show a 14.41% improvement (in $\delta_{1.05}$) on REAL275 depth prediction compared to Depth-Anything v2 (with fine-tuned head). Second, benefiting from depth availability, we introduce a depth-aware matching process that effectively integrates spatial relationships within LoFTR, enabling our system to handle matching for challenging materials and lighting conditions. Evaluations of pose estimation on the REAL275, ClearPose, and Toyota-Light datasets show that our approach surpasses state-of-the-art methods, achieving a 6.1% improvement in average recall.

Estimating treatment effects is crucial for personalized decision-making in medicine, but this task faces unique challenges in clinical practice. At training time, models for estimating treatment effects are typically trained on well-structured medical datasets that contain detailed patient information. However, at inference time, predictions are often made using textual descriptions (e.g., descriptions with self-reported symptoms), which are incomplete representations of the original patient information. In this work, we make three contributions. (1) We show that the discrepancy between the data available during training time and inference time can lead to biased estimates of treatment effects. We formalize this issue as an \emph{inference time text confounding} problem, where confounders are fully observed during training time but only partially available through text at inference time. (2) To address this problem, we propose a novel framework for estimating treatment effects that explicitly accounts for inference time text confounding. Our framework leverages large language models (LLMs) together with a custom doubly robust learner to mitigate biases caused by the inference time text confounding. (3) Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in real-world applications.

Understanding the internal mechanisms of transformer-based language models remains challenging. Mechanistic interpretability based on circuit discovery aims to reverse engineer neural networks by analyzing their internal processes at the level of computational subgraphs. In this paper, we revisit existing gradient-based circuit identification methods and find that their performance is either affected by the zero-gradient problem or saturation effects, where edge attribution scores become insensitive to input changes, resulting in noisy and unreliable attribution evaluations for circuit components. To address the saturation effect, we propose Edge Attribution Patching with GradPath (EAP-GP), EAP-GP introduces an integration path, starting from the input and adaptively following the direction of the difference between the gradients of corrupted and clean inputs to avoid the saturated region. This approach enhances attribution reliability and improves the faithfulness of circuit identification. We evaluate EAP-GP on 6 datasets using GPT-2 Small, GPT-2 Medium, and GPT-2 XL. Experimental results demonstrate that EAP-GP outperforms existing methods in circuit faithfulness, achieving improvements up to 17.7\%. Comparisons with manually annotated ground-truth circuits demonstrate that EAP-GP achieves precision and recall comparable to or better than previous approaches, highlighting its effectiveness in identifying accurate circuits.

We consider inferring the causal effect of a treatment (intervention) on an outcome of interest in situations where there is potentially an unobserved confounder influencing both the treatment and the outcome. This is achievable by assuming access to two separate sets of control (proxy) measurements associated with treatment and outcomes, which are used to estimate treatment effects through a function termed the *causal bridge* (CB). We present a new theoretical perspective, associated assumptions for when estimating treatment effects with the CB is feasible, and a bound on the average error of the treatment effect when the CB assumptions are violated. From this new perspective, we then demonstrate how coupling the CB with an autoencoder architecture allows for the sharing of statistical strength between observed quantities (proxies, treatment, and outcomes), thus improving the quality of the CB estimates. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach relative to state-of-the-art methodology for causal inference with proxy measurements.

Truncation by death, a prevalent challenge in critical care, renders traditional dynamic treatment regime (DTR) evaluation inapplicable due to ill-defined potential outcomes. We introduce a principal stratification-based method, focusing on the always-survivor value function. We derive a semiparametrically efficient, multiply robust estimator for multi-stage DTRs, demonstrating its robustness and efficiency. Empirical validation and an application to electronic health records showcase its utility for personalized treatment optimization.

Graph attention has demonstrated superior performance in graph learning tasks. However, learning from global interactions can be challenging due to the large number of nodes. In this paper, we discover a new phenomenon termed over-aggregating. Over-aggregating arises when a large volume of messages is aggregated into a single node with less discrimination, leading to the dilution of the key messages and potential information loss. To address this, we propose Wideformer, a plug-and-play method for graph attention. Wideformer divides the aggregation of all nodes into parallel processes and guides the model to focus on specific subsets of these processes. The division can limit the input volume per aggregation, avoiding message dilution and reducing information loss. The guiding step sorts and weights the aggregation outputs, prioritizing the informative messages. Evaluations show that Wideformer can effectively mitigate over-aggregating. As a result, the backbone methods can focus on the informative messages, achieving superior performance compared to baseline methods.

Reasoning-focused LLMs sometimes alter their behavior when they detect that they are being evaluated—which can lead them to optimize for test-passing performance or to comply more readily with harmful prompts if real-world consequences appear absent. We present the first quantitative study of how such “test awareness” impacts model behavior, particularly its performance on safety-related tasks. We introduce a white-box probing framework that (i) linearly identifies awareness-related activations and (ii) steers models toward or away from test awareness while monitoring downstream performance. We apply our method to different state-of-the-art open-weight reasoning LLMs across both realistic and hypothetical tasks (denoting tests or simulations). Our results demonstrate that test awareness significantly impacts safety alignment (such as compliance with harmful requests and conforming to stereotypes) with effects varying in both magnitude and direction across models. By providing control over this latent effect, our work aims to provide a stress-test mechanism and increase trust in how we perform safety evaluations.

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing methods for covariate selection often assume the absence of latent variables and rely on learning the global causal structure among variables. However, identifying the global structure can be unnecessary and inefficient, especially when our primary interest lies in estimating the effect of a treatment variable on an outcome variable. To address this limitation, we propose a novel local learning approach for covariate selection in nonparametric causal effect estimation, which accounts for the presence of latent variables. Our approach leverages testable independence and dependence relationships among observed variables to identify a valid adjustment set for a target causal relationship, ensuring both soundness and completeness under standard assumptions. We validate the effectiveness of our algorithm through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data.

Randomized controlled trials often suffer from interference, a violation of the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA), where a unit's outcome is influenced by its neighbors' treatment assignments. This interference biases naive estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE). A popular method to achieve unbiasedness pairs the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the ATE with a known exposure mapping, a function that identifies units in a given randomization unaffected by interference. For example, an exposure mapping may stipulate that a unit experiences no further interference if at least an $h$-fraction of its neighbors share its treatment status. However, selecting this threshold $h$ is challenging, requiring domain expertise; in its absence, fixed thresholds such as $h = 1$ are often used. In this work, we propose a data-adaptive method to select the $h$-fractional threshold that minimizes the mean-squared-error (MSE) of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. Our approach estimates the bias and variance of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator paired with candidate thresholds by leveraging a first-order approximation, specifically, linear regression of potential outcomes on exposures. We present simulations illustrating that our method improves upon non-adaptive threshold choices, and an adapted Lepski's method. We further illustrate the performance of our estimator by running experiments with synthetic outcomes on a real village network dataset, and on a publicly-available Amazon product similarity graph. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our method remains robust to deviations from the linear potential outcomes model.

Randomized experiments are the preferred approach for evaluating the effects of interventions, but they are costly and often yield estimates with substantial uncertainty. On the other hand, in silico experiments leveraging foundation models offer a cost-effective alternative that can potentially attain higher statistical precision. However, the benefits of in silico experiments come with a significant risk: statistical inferences are not valid if the models fail to accurately predict experimental responses to interventions. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that integrates the predictions from multiple foundation models with experimental data while preserving valid statistical inference. Our estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, with asymptotic variance no larger than the standard estimator based on experimental data alone. Importantly, these statistical properties hold even when model predictions are arbitrarily biased. Empirical results across several randomized experiments show that our estimator offers substantial precision gains, equivalent to a reduction of up to 20\% in the sample size needed to match the same precision as the standard estimator based on experimental data alone.

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE in a setting where only a treatment group and an unlabeled group—consisting of units whose treatment status is unknown—are observed. This scenario constitutes a variant of learning from positive and unlabeled data (PU learning) and can be viewed as a special case of ATE estimation with missing data. For this setting, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bounds, which characterize the lowest achievable asymptotic variance for regular estimators. We then construct semiparametric efficient ATE estimators that attain these bounds. Our results contribute to the literature on causal inference with missing data and weakly supervised learning.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that *amortizes* this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out of the box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model requires no further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN/).

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged—rather than directly assigned—via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric efficiency theory, we derive the efficiency bound for ATE estimation under arbitrary, history-dependent instrument-assignment policies, and show it is minimized by a variance-aware allocation rule that balances outcome noise and compliance variability. Leveraging this insight, we introduce AMRIV—an **A**daptive, **M**ultiply-**R**obust estimator for **I**nstrumental-**V**ariable settings with variance-optimal assignment. AMRIV pairs (i) an online policy that adaptively approximates the optimal allocation with (ii) a sequential, influence-function–based estimator that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound while retaining multiply-robust consistency. We establish asymptotic normality, explicit convergence rates, and anytime-valid asymptotic confidence sequences that enable sequential inference. Finally, we demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our approach through empirical studies, showing that adaptive instrument assignment, when combined with the AMRIV estimator, yields improved efficiency and robustness compared to existing baselines.

In recommendation systems, implicit feedback data can be automatically recorded and is more common than explicit feedback data. However, implicit feedback poses two challenges for relevance prediction, namely (a) positive-unlabeled (PU): negative feedback does not necessarily imply low relevance and (b) missing not at random (MNAR): items that are popular or frequently recommended tend to receive more clicks than other items, even if the user does not have a significant interest in them. Existing methods either overlook the MNAR issue or fail to account for the inherent mechanism of the PU issue. As a result, they may lead to inaccurate relevance predictions or inflated biases and variances. In this paper, we formulate the implicit feedback problem as a counterfactual estimation problem with missing treatment variables. Prediction of the relevance in implicit feedback is equivalent to answering the counterfactual question that ``whether a user would click a specific item if exposed to it?". To solve the counterfactual question, we propose the Counterfactual Implicit Feedback (Counter-IF) prediction approach that divides the user-item pairs into four disjoint groups, namely definitely positive (DP), highly exposed (HE), highly unexposed (HU), and unknown (UN) groups. Specifically, Counter-IF first performs missing treatment imputation with different confidence levels from raw implicit feedback, then estimates the counterfactual outcomes via causal representation learning that combines pointwise loss and pairwise loss based on the user-item pairs stratification. Theoretically the generalization bound of the learned model is derived. Extensive experiments are conducted on publicly available datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code is available at https://github.com/zhouchuanCN/NeurIPS25-Counter-IF.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often exhibit limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to small sample sizes. In recent years, the combination of external controls has gained increasing attention as a means of improving the efficiency of RCTs. However, external controls are not always comparable to RCTs, and direct borrowing without careful evaluation can introduce substantial bias and reduce the efficiency of treatment effect estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel influence-based adaptive sample borrowing approach that effectively quantifies the "comparability'' of each sample in the external controls using influence function theory. Given a selected set of borrowed external controls, we further derive a semiparametric efficient estimator under an exchangeability assumption. Recognizing that the exchangeability assumption may not hold for all possible borrowing sets, we conduct a detailed analysis of the asymptotic bias and variance of the proposed estimator under violations of exchangeability. Building on this bias-variance trade-off, we further develop a data-driven approach to select the optimal subset of external controls for borrowing. Extensive simulations and real-world applications demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly enhances treatment effect estimation efficiency in RCTs, outperforming existing approaches.

Causal effect estimation is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground-truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-the-art predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic causal data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments in synthetic and semi-synthetic settings, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph.

Causal inference is essential for developing and evaluating medical interventions, yet real-world medical datasets are often difficult to access due to regulatory barriers. This makes synthetic data a potentially valuable asset that enables these medical analyses, along with the development of new inference methods themselves. Generative models can produce synthetic data that closely approximate real data distributions, yet existing methods do not consider the unique challenges that downstream causal inference tasks, and specifically those focused on treatments, pose. We establish a set of desiderata that synthetic data containing treatments should satisfy to maximise downstream utility: preservation of (i) the covariate distribution, (ii) the treatment assignment mechanism, and (iii) the outcome generation mechanism. Based on these desiderata, we propose a set of evaluation metrics to assess such synthetic data. Finally, we present STEAM: a novel method for generating Synthetic data for Treatment Effect Analysis in Medicine that mimics the data-generating process of data containing treatments and optimises for our desiderata. We empirically demonstrate that STEAM achieves state-of-the-art performance across our metrics as compared to existing generative models, particularly as the complexity of the true data-generating process increases.