反事实解释

Graphical models have been widely used as parsimonious encoders of assumptions of the underlying causal system and provide a basis for causal inferences. Models encoding stronger constraints tend to require higher expressive power, which are also harder, and sometimes impossible to empirically falsify. In this paper, we introduce two new collections of distributions that include counterfactual quan- tities which are experimentally accessible under counterfactual randomizations. Correspondingly, we define two new classes of graphical models for encoding empirically testable constraints in these distributions. We further present a sound and complete calculus, based on counterfactual calculus, which licenses inferences in these two new models with rules that are within the empirically falsifiable bound- ary. Finally, we formulate a hierarchy over several graphical models based on the constraints they encode and study the fundamental trade-off between the expressive power and empirical falsifiability of different models across the hierarchy.

This paper proposes a new algorithm for learning gradient boosted decision trees while ensuring the existence of recourse actions. Algorithmic recourse aims to provide a recourse action for altering the undesired prediction result given by a model. While existing studies often focus on extracting valid and executable actions from a given learned model, such reasonable actions do not always exist for models optimized solely for predictive accuracy. To address this issue, recent studies proposed a framework for learning a model while guaranteeing the existence of reasonable actions with high probability. However, these methods can not be applied to gradient boosted decision trees, which are renowned as one of the most popular models for tabular datasets. We propose an efficient gradient boosting algorithm that takes recourse guarantee into account, while maintaining the same time complexity as the standard ones. We also propose a post-processing method for refining a learned model under the constraint of a recourse guarantee and provide a PAC-style analysis of the refined model. Experimental results demonstrated that our method successfully provided reasonable actions to more instances than the baselines without significantly degrading accuracy and computational efficiency.

Counterfactual explanations provide individuals with cost-optimal recommendations to achieve their desired outcomes. However, when a significant number of individuals seek similar state modifications, this individual-centric approach can inadvertently create competition and introduce unforeseen costs. Additionally, disregarding the underlying data distribution may lead to recommendations that individuals perceive as unusual or impractical. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework that extends standard counterfactual explanations by incorporating a population dynamics model. This framework penalizes deviations from equilibrium after individuals follow the recommendations, effectively mitigating externalities caused by correlated changes across the population. By balancing individual modification costs with their impact on others, our method ensures a more equitable and efficient outcome. We show how this approach reframes the counterfactual explanation problem from an individual-centric task to a collective optimization problem. Augmenting our theoretical insights, we design and implement scalable algorithms for computing collective counterfactuals, showcasing their effectiveness and advantages over existing recourse methods, particularly in aligning with collective objectives.

A central challenge in organ transplantation is the extremely low acceptance rate of donor organ offers—typically in the single digits—leading to high discard rates and suboptimal use of available grafts. Current acceptance models embedded in allocation systems are non-causal, trained on observational data, and fail to generalize to policy-relevant counterfactuals. This limits their reliability for both policy evaluation and simulator-based optimization. In this work, we reframe organ offer acceptance as a counterfactual prediction problem and propose a method to learn from routinely recorded—but often overlooked—refusal explanations. These refusal reasons act as direction-only counterfactual signals: for example, a refusal reason such as "old donor age" implies acceptance might have occurred had the donor been younger. We formalize this setting and introduce ClexNet, a novel causal model that learns policy-invariant representations via balanced training and an explanation-guided augmentation loss. On both synthetic and semi-synthetic data, ClexNet outperforms existing acceptance models in predictive performance, generalization, and calibration, offering a robust drop-in improvement for simulators and allocation policy evaluation. Beyond transplantation, our approach provides a general method for incorporating human direction-only explanations as a form of model supervision, improving performance in settings where only observational data is available.

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the existing explainable methods, counterfactual explanations offer interpretability by identifying minimal changes to inputs that would alter a model’s prediction, thus providing deeper insights. However, current counterfactual generation methods suffer from critical limitations, including gradient vanishing, discontinuous latent spaces, and an overreliance on the alignment between learned and true decision boundaries. To overcome these limitations, we propose LeapFactual, a novel counterfactual explanation algorithm based on conditional flow matching. LeapFactual generates reliable and informative counterfactuals, even when true and learned decision boundaries diverge. LeapFactual is not limited to models with differentiable loss functions. It can even handle human-in-the-loop systems, expanding the scope of counterfactual explanations to domains that require the participation of human annotators, such as citizen science. We provide extensive experiments on benchmark and real-world datasets highlighting that LeapFactual generates accurate and in-distribution counterfactual explanations that offer actionable insights. We observe, for instance, that our reliable counterfactual samples with labels aligning to ground truth can be beneficially used as new training data to enhance the model. The proposed method is diversely applicable and enhances scientific knowledge discovery as well as non-expert interpretability.

Knowledge distillation is a promising approach to transfer capabilities from complex teacher models to smaller, resource-efficient student models that can be deployed easily, particularly in task-aware scenarios. However, existing methods of task-aware distillation typically require substantial quantities of data which may be unavailable or expensive to obtain in many practical scenarios. In this paper, we address this challenge by introducing a novel strategy called **Co**unterfactual-explanation-infused **D**istillation CoD for *few-shot task-aware knowledge distillation by systematically infusing counterfactual explanations*. Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) refer to inputs that can flip the output prediction of the teacher model with minimum perturbation. Our strategy CoD leverages these CFEs to precisely map the teacher's decision boundary with significantly fewer samples. We provide theoretical guarantees for motivating the role of CFEs in distillation, from both statistical and geometric perspectives. We mathematically show that CFEs can improve parameter estimation by providing more informative examples near the teacher’s decision boundary. We also derive geometric insights on how CFEs effectively act as knowledge probes, helping the students mimic the teacher's decision boundaries more effectively than standard data. We perform experiments across various datasets and LLMs to show that CoD outperforms standard distillation approaches in few-shot regimes (as low as 8 - 512 samples). Notably, CoD only uses half of the original samples used by the baselines, paired with their corresponding CFEs and still improves performance.

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and management science. Previous methods rely on a known structural causal model (SCM) or assume the homogeneity of the exogenous variable and strict monotonicity between the outcome and exogenous variable. In this paper, we propose a principled approach for identifying and estimating the counterfactual outcome. We first introduce a simple and intuitive rank preservation assumption to identify the counterfactual outcome without relying on a known structural causal model. Building on this, we propose a novel ideal loss for theoretically unbiased learning of the counterfactual outcome and further develop a kernel-based estimator for its empirical estimation. Our theoretical analysis shows that the rank preservation assumption is not stronger than the homogeneity and strict monotonicity assumptions, and shows that the proposed ideal loss is convex, and the proposed estimator is unbiased. Extensive semi-synthetic and real-world experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.