理论 · statistics

We consider the problem of privately estimating a parameter $\mathbb{E}[h(X_1,\dots,X_k)]$, where $X_1$, $X_2$, $\dots$, $X_k$ are i.i.d. data from some distribution and $h$ is a permutation-invariant function. Without privacy constraints, the standard estimators for this task are U-statistics, which commonly arise in a wide range of problems, including nonparametric signed rank tests, symmetry testing, uniformity testing, and subgraph counts in random networks, and are the unique minimum variance unbiased estimators under mild conditions. Despite the recent outpouring of interest in private mean estimation, privatizing U-statistics has received little attention. While existing private mean estimation algorithms can be applied in a black-box manner to obtain confidence intervals, we show that they can lead to suboptimal private error, e.g., constant-factor inflation in the leading term, or even $\Theta(1/n)$ rather than $O(1/n^2)$ in degenerate settings. To remedy this, we propose a new thresholding-based approach that reweights different subsets of the data using _local Hájek projections_. This leads to nearly optimal private error for non-degenerate U-statistics and a strong indication of near-optimality for degenerate U-statistics.

The saturation effects, which originally refer to the fact that kernel ridge regression (KRR) fails to achieve the information-theoretical lower bound when the regression function is over-smooth, have been observed for almost 20 years and were rigorously proved recently for kernel ridge regression and some other spectral algorithms over a fixed dimensional domain. The main focus of this paper is to explore the saturation effects for a large class of spectral algorithms (including the KRR, gradient descent, etc.) in large dimensional settings where $n \asymp d^{\gamma}$. More precisely, we first propose an improved minimax lower bound for the kernel regression problem in large dimensional settings and show that the gradient flow with early stopping strategy will result in an estimator achieving this lower bound (up to a logarithmic factor). Similar to the results in KRR, we can further determine the exact convergence rates (both upper and lower bounds) of a large class of (optimal tuned) spectral algorithms with different qualification $\tau$'s. In particular, we find that these exact rate curves (varying along $\gamma$) exhibit the periodic plateau behavior and the polynomial approximation barrier. Consequently, we can fully depict the saturation effects of the spectral algorithms and reveal a new phenomenon in large dimensional settings (i.e., the saturation effect occurs in large dimensional setting as long as the source condition $s>\tau$ while it occurs in fixed dimensional setting as long as $s>2\tau$).

Given the vast number of classifiers that have been (and continue to be) proposed, reliable methods for comparing them are becoming increasingly important. The desire for reliability is broken down into three main aspects: (1) Comparisons should allow for different quality metrics simultaneously. (2) Comparisons should take into account the statistical uncertainty induced by the choice of benchmark suite. (3) The robustness of the comparisons under small deviations in the underlying assumptions should be verifiable. To address (1), we propose to compare classifiers using a generalized stochastic dominance ordering (GSD) and present the GSD-front as an information-efficient alternative to the classical Pareto-front. For (2), we propose a consistent statistical estimator for the GSD-front and construct a statistical test for whether a (potentially new) classifier lies in the GSD-front of a set of state-of-the-art classifiers. For (3), we relax our proposed test using techniques from robust statistics and imprecise probabilities. We illustrate our concepts on the benchmark suite PMLB and on the platform OpenML.

The relationship between the number of training data points, the number of parameters, and the generalization capabilities of models has been widely studied. Previous work has shown that double descent can occur in the over-parameterized regime and that the standard bias-variance trade-off holds in the under-parameterized regime. These works provide multiple reasons for the existence of the peak. We postulate that the location of the peak depends on the technical properties of both the spectrum as well as the eigenvectors of the sample covariance. We present two simple examples that provably exhibit double descent in the under-parameterized regime and do not seem to occur for reasons provided in prior work.

We present sDBSCAN, a scalable density-based clustering algorithm in high dimensions with cosine distance. sDBSCAN leverages recent advancements in random projections given a significantly large number of random vectors to quickly identify core points and their neighborhoods, the primary hurdle of density-based clustering. Theoretically, sDBSCAN preserves the DBSCAN’s clustering structure under mild conditions with high probability. To facilitate sDBSCAN, we present sOPTICS, a scalable visual tool to guide the parameter setting of sDBSCAN. We also extend sDBSCAN and sOPTICS to L2, L1, χ2, and Jensen-Shannon distances via random kernel features. Empirically, sDBSCAN is significantly faster and provides higher accuracy than competitive DBSCAN variants on real-world million-point data sets. On these data sets, sDBSCAN and sOPTICS run in a few minutes, while the scikit-learn counterparts and other clustering competitors demand several hours or cannot run on our hardware due to memory constraints. Our code is available at https://github.com/NinhPham/sDbscan.

The premise of semi-supervised learning (SSL) is that combining labeled and unlabeled data yields significantly more accurate models. Despite empirical successes, the theoretical understanding of SSL is still far from complete. In this work, we study SSL for high dimensional sparse Gaussian classification. To construct an accurate classifier a key task is feature selection, detecting the few variables that separate the two classes. For this SSL setting, we analyze information theoretic lower bounds for accurate feature selection as well as computational lower bounds, assuming the low-degree likelihood hardness conjecture. Our key contribution is the identification of a regime in the problem parameters (dimension, sparsity, number of labeled and unlabeled samples) where SSL is guaranteed to be advantageous for classification. Specifically, there is a regime where it is possible to construct in polynomial time an accurate SSL classifier. However, any computationally efficient supervised or unsupervised learning schemes, that separately use only the labeled or unlabeled data would fail. Our work highlights the provable benefits of combining labeled and unlabeled data for classification and feature selection in high dimensions. We present simulations that complement our theoretical analysis.

We consider the problem of estimating a structured multivariate density, subject to Markov conditions implied by an undirected graph. In the worst case, without Markovian assumptions, this problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Our main result shows how the curse of dimensionality can be avoided or greatly alleviated under the Markov property, and applies to arbitrary graphs. While existing results along these lines focus on sparsity or manifold assumptions, we introduce a new graphical quantity called ``graph resilience'' and show that it dictates the optimal sample complexity. Surprisingly, although one might expect the sample complexity of this problem to scale with local graph parameters such as the degree, this turns out not to be the case. Through explicit examples, we compute uniform deviation bounds and illustrate how the curse of dimensionality in density estimation can thus be circumvented. Notable examples where the rate improves substantially include sequential, hierarchical, and spatial data.

While several recent matrix completion methods are developed to deal with non-uniform observation probabilities across matrix entries, very few allow the missingness to depend on the mostly unobserved matrix measurements, which is generally ill-posed. We aim to tackle a subclass of these ill-posed settings, characterized by a flexible separable observation probability assumption that can depend on the matrix measurements. We propose a regularized pairwise pseudo-likelihood approach for matrix completion and prove that the proposed estimator can asymptotically recover the low-rank parameter matrix up to an identifiable equivalence class of a constant shift and scaling, at a near-optimal asymptotic convergence rate of the standard well-posed (non-informative missing) setting, while effectively mitigating the impact of informative missingness. The efficacy of our method is validated via numerical experiments, positioning it as a robust tool for matrix completion to mitigate data bias.

Despite the remarkable empirical performance of Transformers, their theoretical understanding remains elusive. Here, we consider a deep multi-head self-attention network, that is closely related to Transformers yet analytically tractable. We develop a statistical mechanics theory of Bayesian learning in this model, deriving exact equations for the network's predictor statistics under the finite-width thermodynamic limit, i.e., $N,P\rightarrow\infty$, $P/N=\mathcal{O}(1)$, where $N$ is the network width and $P$ is the number of training examples. Our theory shows that the predictor statistics are expressed as a sum of independent kernels, each one pairing different "attention paths", defined as information pathways through different attention heads across layers. The kernels are weighted according to a "task-relevant kernel combination" mechanism that aligns the total kernel with the task labels. As a consequence, this interplay between attention paths enhances generalization performance. Experiments confirm our findings on both synthetic and real-world sequence classification tasks. Finally, our theory explicitly relates the kernel combination mechanism to properties of the learned weights, allowing for a qualitative transfer of its insights to models trained via gradient descent. As an illustration, we demonstrate an efficient size reduction of the network, by pruning those attention heads that are deemed less relevant by our theory.

We study the problem of estimating the means of well-separated mixtures when an adversary may add arbitrary outliers. While strong guarantees are available when the outlier fraction is significantly smaller than the minimum mixing weight, much less is known when outliers may crowd out low-weight clusters – a setting we refer to as list-decodable mixture learning (LD-ML). In this case, adversarial outliers can simulate additional spurious mixture components. Hence, if all means of the mixture must be recovered up to a small error in the output list, the list size needs to be larger than the number of (true) components. We propose an algorithm that obtains order-optimal error guarantees for each mixture mean with a minimal list-size overhead, significantly improving upon list-decodable mean estimation, the only existing method that is applicable for LD-ML. Although improvements are observed even when the mixture is non-separated, our algorithm achieves particularly strong guarantees when the mixture is separated: it can leverage the mixture structure to partially cluster the samples before carefully iterating a base learner for list-decodable mean estimation at different scales.

Hypothesis selection, also known as density estimation, is a fundamental problem in statistics and learning theory. Suppose we are given a sample set from an unknown distribution $P$ and a finite class of candidate distributions (called hypotheses) $\mathcal{H} \coloneqq \{H_1, H_2, \ldots, H_n\}$. The aim is to design an algorithm that selects a distribution $\hat H$ in $\mathcal{H}$ that best fits the data. The algorithm's accuracy is measured based on the distance between $\hat{H}$ and $P$ compared to the distance of the closest distribution in $\mathcal{H}$ to $P$ (denoted by $OPT$). Concretely, we aim for $\|\hat{H} - P\|_{TV}$ to be at most $ \alpha \cdot OPT + \epsilon$ for some small $\epsilon$ and $\alpha$. While it is possible to decrease the value of $\epsilon$ as the number of samples increases, $\alpha$ is an inherent characteristic of the algorithm. In fact, one cannot hope to achieve $\alpha < 3$ even when there are only two candidate hypotheses, unless the number of samples is proportional to the domain size of $P$ [Bousquet, Kane, Moran '19]. Finding the best $\alpha$ has been one of the main focuses of studies of the problem since early work of [Devroye, Lugosi '01]. Prior to our work, no algorithm was known that achieves $\alpha = 3$ in near-linear time. We provide the first algorithm that operates in almost linear time ($\tilde{O}(n/\epsilon^3)$ time) and achieves $\alpha = 3$. This result improves upon a long list of results in hypothesis selection. Previously known algorithms either had worse time complexity, a larger factor $\alpha$, or extra assumptions about the problem setting. In addition to this algorithm, we provide another (almost) linear-time algorithm with better dependency on the additive accuracy parameter $\epsilon$, albeit with a slightly worse accuracy parameter, $\alpha = 4$.

The performance of Transfer Learning (TL) significantly depends on effective pretraining, which not only requires extensive amounts of data but also substantial computational resources. As a result, in practice, it is challenging to successfully perform TL at the level of individual model developers. Federated Learning (FL) addresses these challenges by enabling collaboration among individual clients through an indirect expansion of the available dataset, distribution of the computation burden across different entities, and privacy-preserving communication mechanisms. Despite several attempts to devise effective transferable FL approaches, several important issues remain unsolved. First, existing methods in this setting primarily focus on optimizing transferability within their local client domains, thereby ignoring transferability over the global learning domain. Second, most approaches focus on analyzing indirect transferability metrics, which does not allow for accurate assessment of the final target loss and extent of transferability. To address these issues, we introduce two important FL features into the model. The first boosts transferability via an exchange protocol between the clients and the server that includes information about cross-client Jacobian (gradient) norms. The second feature promotes an increase of the average of the Jacobians of the clients at the server side, which is subsequently used as a local regularizer that reduces the cross-client Jacobian variance. A rigorous analysis of our transferable federated algorithm, termed FedGTST (Federated Global Transferability via Statistics Tuning), reveals that increasing the averaged Jacobian norm across clients and reducing its variance ensures tight control of the target loss. This insight leads to the first known upper bound on the target loss of transferable federated learning in terms of the source loss and source-target domain discrepancy. Extensive experimental results on datasets including MNIST → MNIST-M and CIFAR10 → SVHN suggest that FedGTST significantly outperforms other relevant baselines, such as FedSR. For example, on the second source-target dataset pair, we improve the accuracy of FedSR by 9.8% and that of FedIIR by 7.6% when the backbone used is LeNet.

Many practical problems involve estimating low dimensional statistical quantities with high-dimensional models and datasets. Several approaches address these estimation tasks based on the theory of influence functions, such as debiased/double ML or targeted minimum loss estimation. We introduce \textit{Monte Carlo Efficient Influence Functions} (MC-EIF), a fully automated technique for approximating efficient influence functions that integrates seamlessly with existing differentiable probabilistic programming systems. MC-EIF automates efficient statistical estimation for a broad class of models and functionals that previously required rigorous custom analysis. We prove that MC-EIF is consistent, and that estimators using MC-EIF achieve optimal $\sqrt{N}$ convergence rates. We show empirically that estimators using MC-EIF are at parity with estimators using analytic EIFs. Finally, we present a novel capstone example using MC-EIF for optimal portfolio selection.

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a single hidden layer neural network, with a quadratic activation function after the first layer, and random weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the input dimension and the network width are proportionally large. Recent work [Cui et al., 2023] established that linear regression provides Bayes-optimal test error to learn such a function when the number of available samples is only linear in the dimension. That work stressed the open challenge of theoretically analyzing the optimal test error in the more interesting regime where the number of samples is quadratic in the dimension. In this paper, we solve this challenge for quadratic activations and derive a closed-form expression for the Bayes-optimal test error. We also provide an algorithm, that we call GAMP-RIE, which combines approximate message passing with rotationally invariant matrix denoising, and that asymptotically achieves the optimal performance. Technically, our result is enabled by establishing a link with recent works on optimal denoising of extensive-rank matrices and on the ellipsoid fitting problem. We further show empirically that, in the absence of noise, randomly-initialized gradient descent seems to sample the space of weights, leading to zero training loss, and averaging over initialization leads to a test error equal to the Bayes-optimal one.