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Investigating the marginal causal effect of an intervention on an outcome from complex data remains challenging due to the inflexibility of employed models and the lack of complexity in causal benchmark datasets, which often fail to reproduce intricate real-world data patterns. In this paper we introduce Frugal Flows, a likelihood-based machine learning model that uses normalising flows to flexibly learn the data-generating process, while also directly targeting the marginal causal quantities inferred from observational data. We provide a novel algorithm for fitting a model to observational data with a parametrically specified causal distribution, and propose that these models are exceptionally well suited for synthetic data generation to validate causal methods. Unlike existing data generation methods, Frugal Flows generate synthetic data that closely resembles the empirical dataset, while also automatically and exactly satisfying a user-defined average treatment effect. To our knowledge, Frugal Flows are the first generative model to both learn flexible data representations and also \textit{exactly} parameterise quantities such as the average treatment effect and the degree of unobserved confounding. We demonstrate the above with experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets.

Multi-label image recognition aims to predict all objects present in an input image. A common belief is that modeling the correlations between objects is beneficial for multi-label recognition. However, this belief has been recently challenged as label correlations may mislead the classifier in testing, due to the possible contextual bias in training. Accordingly, a few of recent works not only discarded label correlation modeling, but also advocated to remove contextual information for multi-label image recognition. This work explicitly explores label correlations for multi-label image recognition based on a principled causal intervention approach. With causal intervention, we pursue causal label correlations and suppress spurious label correlations, as the former tend to convey useful contextual cues while the later may mislead the classifier. Specifically, we decouple label-specific features with a Transformer decoder attached to the backbone network, and model the confounders which may give rise to spurious correlations by clustering spatial features of all training images. Based on label-specific features and confounders, we employ a cross-attention module to implement causal intervention, quantifying the causal correlations from all object categories to each predicted object category. Finally, we obtain image labels by combining the predictions from decoupled features and causal label correlations. Extensive experiments clearly validate the effectiveness of our approach for multi-label image recognition in both common and cross-dataset settings.

We study the differences arising from merging predictors in the causal and anticausal directions using the same data. In particular we study the asymmetries that arise in a simple model where we merge the predictors using one binary variable as target and two continuous variables as predictors. We use Causal Maximum Entropy (CMAXENT) as inductive bias to merge the predictors, however, we expect similar differences to hold also when we use other merging methods that take into account asymmetries between cause and effect. We show that if we observe all bivariate distributions, the CMAXENT solution reduces to a logistic regression in the causal direction and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) in the anticausal direction. Furthermore, we study how the decision boundaries of these two solutions differ whenever we observe only some of the bivariate distributions implications for Out-Of-Variable (OOV) generalisation.

Despite the multifaceted recent advances in interventional causal representation learning (CRL), they primarily focus on the stylized assumption of single-node interventions. This assumption is not valid in a wide range of applications, and generally, the subset of nodes intervened in an interventional environment is *fully unknown*. This paper focuses on interventional CRL under unknown multi-node (UMN) interventional environments and establishes the first identifiability results for *general* latent causal models (parametric or nonparametric) under stochastic interventions (soft or hard) and linear transformation from the latent to observed space. Specifically, it is established that given sufficiently diverse interventional environments, (i) identifiability *up to ancestors* is possible using only *soft* interventions, and (ii) *perfect* identifiability is possible using *hard* interventions. Remarkably, these guarantees match the best-known results for more restrictive single-node interventions. Furthermore, CRL algorithms are also provided that achieve the identifiability guarantees. A central step in designing these algorithms is establishing the relationships between UMN interventional CRL and score functions associated with the statistical models of different interventional environments. Establishing these relationships also serves as constructive proof of the identifiability guarantees.

Steering vectors (SVs) are a new approach to efficiently adjust language model behaviour at inference time by intervening on intermediate model activations. They have shown promise in terms of improving both capabilities and model alignment. However, the reliability and generalisation properties of this approach are unknown. In this work, we rigorously investigate these properties, and show that steering vectors have substantial limitations both in- and out-of-distribution. In-distribution, steerability is highly variable across different inputs. Depending on the concept, spurious biases can substantially contribute to how effective steering is for each input, presenting a challenge for the widespread use of steering vectors. Out-of-distribution, while steering vectors often generalise well, for several concepts they are brittle to reasonable changes in the prompt, resulting in them failing to generalise well. Overall, our findings show that while steering can work well in the right circumstances, there remain many technical difficulties of applying steering vectors to guide models' behaviour at scale.

Considering various data modalities, such as images, videos, and text, humans perform causal reasoning using high-level causal variables, as opposed to operating at the low, pixel level from which the data comes. In practice, most causal reasoning methods assume that the data is described as granular as the underlying causal generative factors, which is often violated in various AI tasks. This mismatch translates into a lack of guarantees in various tasks such as generative modeling, decision-making, fairness, and generalizability, to cite a few. In this paper, we acknowledge this issue and study the problem of causal disentangled representation learning from a combination of data gathered from various heterogeneous domains and assumptions in the form of a latent causal graph. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed work is the first to consider i) non-Markovian causal settings, where there may be unobserved confounding, ii) arbitrary distributions that arise from multiple domains, and iii) a relaxed version of disentanglement. Specifically, we introduce graphical criteria that allow for disentanglement under various conditions. Building on these results, we develop an algorithm that returns a causal disentanglement map, highlighting which latent variables can be disentangled given the combination of data and assumptions. The theory is corroborated by experiments.

To build intelligent machine learning systems, modern representation learning attempts to recover latent generative factors from data, such as in causal representation learning. A key question in this growing field is to provide rigorous conditions under which latent factors can be identified and thus, potentially learned. Motivated by extensive empirical literature on linear representations and concept learning, we propose to relax causal notions with a geometric notion of concepts. We formally define a notion of concepts and show rigorously that they can be provably recovered from diverse data. Instead of imposing assumptions on the "true" generative latent space, we assume that concepts can be represented linearly in this latent space. The tradeoff is that instead of identifying the "true" generative factors, we identify a subset of desired human-interpretable concepts that are relevant for a given application. Experiments on synthetic data, multimodal CLIP models and large language models supplement our results and show the utility of our approach. In this way, we provide a foundation for moving from causal representations to interpretable, concept-based representations by bringing together ideas from these two neighboring disciplines.

With increasing privacy concerns in artificial intelligence, regulations have mandated the right to be forgotten, granting individuals the right to withdraw their data from models. Machine unlearning has emerged as a potential solution to enable selective forgetting in models, particularly in recommender systems where historical data contains sensitive user information. Despite recent advances in recommendation unlearning, evaluating unlearning methods comprehensively remains challenging due to the absence of a unified evaluation framework and overlooked aspects of deeper influence, e.g., fairness. To address these gaps, we propose CURE4Rec, the first comprehensive benchmark for recommendation unlearning evaluation. CURE4Rec covers four aspects, i.e., unlearning Completeness, recommendation Utility, unleaRning efficiency, and recommendation fairnEss, under three data selection strategies, i.e., core data, edge data, and random data. Specifically, we consider the deeper influence of unlearning on recommendation fairness and robustness towards data with varying impact levels. We construct multiple datasets with CURE4Rec evaluation and conduct extensive experiments on existing recommendation unlearning methods. Our code is released at https://github.com/xiye7lai/CURE4Rec.

To use artificial intelligence and machine learning models wisely we must understand how they interact with the world, including how they depend causally on data inputs. In this work we develop Causal Dependence Plots (CDPs) to visualize how a model's predicted outcome depends on changes in a given predictor *along with consequent causal changes in other predictor variables*. Crucially, this differs from standard methods based on independence or holding other predictors constant, such as regression coefficients or Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs). Our explanatory framework generalizes PDPs, including them as a special case, as well as a variety of other interpretive plots that show, for example, the total, direct, and indirect effects of causal mediation. We demonstrate with simulations and real data experiments how CDPs can be combined in a modular way with methods for causal learning or sensitivity analysis. Since people often think causally about input-output dependence, CDPs can be powerful tools in the xAI or interpretable machine learning toolkit and contribute to applications like scientific machine learning and algorithmic fairness.

We define maximum entropy goal-directedness (MEG), a formal measure of goal- directedness in causal models and Markov decision processes, and give algorithms for computing it. Measuring goal-directedness is important, as it is a critical element of many concerns about harm from AI. It is also of philosophical interest, as goal-directedness is a key aspect of agency. MEG is based on an adaptation of the maximum causal entropy framework used in inverse reinforcement learning. It can measure goal-directedness with respect to a known utility function, a hypothesis class of utility functions, or a set of random variables. We prove that MEG satisfies several desiderata and demonstrate our algorithms with small-scale experiments.

In modern telecommunication networks, faults manifest as alarms, generating thousands of events daily. Network operators need an efficient method to identify the root causes of these alarms to mitigate potential losses. This task is challenging due to the increasing scale of telecommunication networks and the interconnected nature of devices, where one fault can trigger a cascade of alarms across multiple devices within a topological network. Recent years have seen a growing focus on causal approaches to addressing this problem, emphasizing the importance of learning a Granger causal graph from topological event sequences. Such causal graphs delineate the relations among alarms and can significantly aid engineers in identifying and rectifying faults. However, existing methods either ignore the topological relationships among devices or suffer from relatively low scalability and efficiency, failing to deliver high-quality responses in a timely manner. To this end, this paper proposes $S^2GCSL$, a simple yet scalable Granger causal structural learning approach for topological event sequences. $S^2GCSL$ utilizes a linear kernel to model activation interactions among various event types within a topological network, and employs gradient descent to efficiently optimize the likelihood function. Notably, it can seamlessly incorporate expert knowledge as constraints within the optimization process, which enhances the interpretability of the outcomes. Extensive experimental results on both large-scale synthetic and real-world problems verify the scalability and efficacy of $S^2GCSL$.

The s-ID problem seeks to compute a causal effect in a specific sub-population from the observational data pertaining to the same sub population (Abouei et al., 2023). This problem has been addressed when all the variables in the system are observable. In this paper, we consider an extension of the s-ID problem that allows for the presence of latent variables. To tackle the challenges induced by the presence of latent variables in a sub-population, we first extend the classical relevant graphical definitions, such as c-components and Hedges, initially defined for the so-called ID problem (Pearl, 1995; Tian & Pearl, 2002), to their new counterparts. Subsequently, we propose a sound algorithm for the s-ID problem with latent variables.

Knowing the effect of an intervention is critical for human decision-making, but current approaches for causal effect estimation rely on manual data collection and structuring, regardless of the causal assumptions. This increases both the cost and time-to-completion for studies. We show how large, diverse observational text data can be mined with large language models (LLMs) to produce inexpensive causal effect estimates under appropriate causal assumptions. We introduce _NATURAL_, a novel family of causal effect estimators built with LLMs that operate over datasets of unstructured text. Our estimators use LLM conditional distributions (over variables of interest, given the text data) to assist in the computation of classical estimators of causal effect. We overcome a number of technical challenges to realize this idea, such as automating data curation and using LLMs to impute missing information. We prepare six (two synthetic and four real) observational datasets, paired with corresponding ground truth in the form of randomized trials, which we used to systematically evaluate each step of our pipeline. NATURAL estimators demonstrate remarkable performance, yielding causal effect estimates that fall within 3 percentage points of their ground truth counterparts, including on real-world Phase 3/4 clinical trials. Our results suggest that unstructured text data is a rich source of causal effect information, and NATURAL is a first step towards an automated pipeline to tap this resource.

In most practical applications such as recommendation systems, display advertising, and so forth, the collected data often contains missing values and those missing values are generally missing-not-at-random, which deteriorates the prediction performance of models. Some existing estimators and regularizers attempt to achieve unbiased estimation to improve the predictive performance. However, variances and generalization bound of these methods are generally unbounded when the propensity scores tend to zero, compromising their stability and robustness. In this paper, we first theoretically reveal that limitations of regularization techniques. Besides, we further illustrate that, for more general estimators, unbiasedness will inevitably lead to unbounded variance. These general laws inspire us that the estimator designs is not merely about eliminating bias, reducing variance, or simply achieve a bias-variance trade-off. Instead, it involves a quantitative joint optimization of bias and variance. Then, we develop a systematic fine-grained dynamic learning framework to jointly optimize bias and variance, which adaptively selects an appropriate estimator for each user-item pair according to the predefined objective function. With this operation, the generalization bounds and variances of models are reduced and bounded with theoretical guarantees. Extensive experiments are conducted to verify the theoretical results and the effectiveness of the proposed dynamic learning framework.

An important line of research in the field of explainability is to extract a small subset of crucial rationales from the full input. The most widely used criterion for rationale extraction is the maximum mutual information (MMI) criterion. However, in certain datasets, there are spurious features non-causally correlated with the label and also get high mutual information, complicating the loss landscape of MMI. Although some penalty-based methods have been developed to penalize the spurious features (e.g., invariance penalty, intervention penalty, etc) to help MMI work better, these are merely remedial measures. In the optimization objectives of these methods, spurious features are still distinguished from plain noise, which hinders the discovery of causal rationales. This paper aims to develop a new criterion that treats spurious features as plain noise, allowing the model to work on datasets rich in spurious features as if it were working on clean datasets, thereby making rationale extraction easier. We theoretically observe that removing either plain noise or spurious features from the input does not alter the conditional distribution of the remaining components relative to the task label. However, significant changes in the conditional distribution occur only when causal features are eliminated. Based on this discovery, the paper proposes a criterion for \textbf{M}aximizing the \textbf{R}emaining \textbf{D}iscrepancy (MRD). Experiments on six widely used datasets show that our MRD criterion improves rationale quality (measured by the overlap with human-annotated rationales) by up to $10.4\%$ as compared to several recent competitive MMI variants. Code: \url{https://github.com/jugechengzi/Rationalization-MRD}.

We study causal representation learning, the task of recovering high-level latent variables and their causal relationships in the form of a causal graph from low-level observed data (such as text and images), assuming access to observations generated from multiple environments. Prior results on the identifiability of causal representations typically assume access to single-node interventions which is rather unrealistic in practice, since the latent variables are unknown in the first place. In this work, we consider the task of learning causal representation learning with data collected from general environments. We show that even when the causal model and the mixing function are both linear, there exists a surrounded-node ambiguity (SNA) [Varici et al. 2023] which is basically unavoidable in our setting. On the other hand, in the same linear case, we show that identification up to SNA is possible under mild conditions, and propose an algorithm, LiNGCReL which provably achieves such identifiability guarantee. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic data and demonstrate the effectiveness of LiNGCReL in the finite-sample regime.

Accurately predicting conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is crucial in personalized medicine and digital platform analytics. Since the treatments of interest often cannot be directly randomized, observational data is leveraged to learn CATEs, but this approach can incur significant bias from unobserved confounding. One strategy to overcome these limitations is to leverage instrumental variables (IVs) as latent quasi-experiments, such as randomized intent-to-treat assignments or randomized product recommendations. This approach, on the other hand, can suffer from low compliance, i.e., IV weakness. Some subgroups may even exhibit zero compliance, meaning we cannot instrument for their CATEs at all. In this paper, we develop a novel approach to combine IV and observational data to enable reliable CATE estimation in the presence of unobserved confounding in the observational data and low compliance in the IV data, including no compliance for some subgroups. We propose a two-stage framework that first learns \textit{biased} CATEs from the observational data, and then applies a compliance-weighted correction using IV data, effectively leveraging IV strength variability across covariates. We characterize the convergence rates of our method and validate its effectiveness through a simulation study. Additionally, we demonstrate its utility with real data by analyzing the heterogeneous effects of 401(k) plan participation on wealth.

Learning the unknown causal parameters of a linear structural causal model is a fundamental task in causal analysis. The task, known as the problem of identification, asks to estimate the parameters of the model from a combination of assumptions on the graphical structure of the model and observational data, represented as a non-causal covariance matrix. In this paper, we give a new sound and complete algorithm for generic identification which runs in polynomial space. By a standard simulation result, namely $\mathsf{PSPACE} \subseteq \mathsf{EXP}$, this algorithm has exponential running time which vastly improves the state-of-the-art double exponential time method using a Gröbner basis approach. The paper also presents evidence that parameter identification is computationally hard in general. In particular, we prove, that the task asking whether, for a given feasible correlation matrix, there are exactly one or two or more parameter sets explaining the observed matrix, is hard for $\forall \mathbb{R}$, the co-class of the existential theory of the reals. In particular, this problem is $\mathsf{coNP}$-hard. To our best knowledge, this is the first hardness result for some notion of identifiability.

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing long-term predictions. Distinguishing itself from existing models like Causal Transformer, our approach highlights the efficacy of employing RNNs for long-term forecasting, complemented by Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) and Information Maximization (InfoMax). Emphasizing efficiency, we avoid the need for computationally expensive transformers. Leveraging CPC, our method captures long-term dependencies within time-varying confounders. Notably, recent models have disregarded the importance of invertible representation, compromising identification assumptions. To remedy this, we employ the InfoMax principle, maximizing a lower bound of mutual information between sequence data and its representation. Our method achieves state-of-the-art counterfactual estimation results using both synthetic and real-world data, marking the pioneering incorporation of Contrastive Predictive Encoding in causal inference.

As society increasingly relies on AI-based tools for decision-making in socially sensitive domains, investigating fairness and equity of such automated systems has become a critical field of inquiry. Most of the literature in fair machine learning focuses on defining and achieving fairness criteria in the context of prediction, while not explicitly focusing on how these predictions may be used later on in the pipeline. For instance, if commonly used criteria, such as independence or sufficiency, are satisfied for a prediction score $S$ used for binary classification, they need not be satisfied after an application of a simple thresholding operation on $S$ (as commonly used in practice). In this paper, we take an important step to address this issue in numerous statistical and causal notions of fairness. We introduce the notion of a margin complement, which measures how much a prediction score $S$ changes due to a thresholding operation. We then demonstrate that the marginal difference in the optimal 0/1 predictor $\widehat Y$ between groups, written $P(\hat y \mid x_1) - P(\hat y \mid x_0)$, can be causally decomposed into the influences of $X$ on the $L_2$-optimal prediction score $S$ and the influences of $X$ on the margin complement $M$, along different causal pathways (direct, indirect, spurious). We then show that under suitable causal assumptions, the influences of $X$ on the prediction score $S$ are equal to the influences of $X$ on the true outcome $Y$. This yields a new decomposition of the disparity in the predictor $\widehat Y$ that allows us to disentangle causal differences inherited from the true outcome $Y$ that exists in the real world vs. those coming from the optimization procedure itself. This observation highlights the need for more regulatory oversight due to the potential for bias amplification, and to address this issue we introduce new notions of weak and strong business necessity, together with an algorithm for assessing whether these notions are satisfied. We apply our method to three real-world datasets and derive new insights on bias amplification in prediction and decision-making.