经济因果

As many practical fields transition to provide personalized decisions, data is increasingly relevant to support the evaluation of candidate plans and policies (e.g., guidelines for the treatment of disease, government directives, etc.). In the machine learning literature, significant efforts have been put into developing machinery to predict the effectiveness of policies efficiently. The challenge is that, in practice, the effectiveness of a candidate policy is not always identifiable, i.e., not uniquely estimable from the combination of the available data and assumptions about the domain at hand (e.g., encoded in a causal graph). In this paper, we develop graphical characterizations and estimation tools to bound the effect of policies given a causal graph and observational data collected in non-identifiable settings. Specifically, our contributions are two-fold: (1) we derive analytical bounds for general probabilistic and conditional policies that are tighter than existing results, (2) we develop an estimation framework to estimate bounds from finite samples, applicable in higher-dimensional spaces and continuously-valued data. We further show that the resulting estimators have favourable statistical properties such as fast convergence and robustness to model misspecification.

The ability to conduct interventions plays a pivotal role in learning causal relationships among variables, thus facilitating applications across diverse scientific disciplines such as genomics, economics, and machine learning. However, in many instances within these applications, the process of generating interventional data is subject to noise: rather than data being sampled directly from the intended interventional distribution, interventions often yield data sampled from a blend of both intended and unintended interventional distributions. We consider the fundamental challenge of disentangling mixed interventional and observational data within linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs) with Gaussian additive noise without the knowledge of the true causal graph. We demonstrate that conducting interventions, whether do or soft, yields distributions with sufficient diversity and properties conducive to efficiently recovering each component within the mixture. Furthermore, we establish that the sample complexity required to disentangle mixed data inversely correlates with the extent of change induced by an intervention in the equations governing the affected variable values. As a result, the causal graph can be identified up to its interventional Markov Equivalence Class, similar to scenarios where no noise influences the generation of interventional data. We further support our theoretical findings by conducting simulations wherein we perform causal discovery from such mixed data.

Causal discovery from observational data, especially for count data, is essential across scientific and industrial contexts, such as biology, economics, and network operation maintenance. For this task, most approaches model count data using Bayesian networks or ordinal relations. However, they overlook the inherent branching structures that are frequently encountered, e.g., a browsing event might trigger an adding cart or purchasing event. This can be modeled by a binomial thinning operator (for branching) and an additive independent Poisson distribution (for noising), known as Poisson Branching Structure Causal Model (PB-SCM). There is a provably sound cumulant-based causal discovery method that allows the identification of the causal structure under a branching structure. However, we show that there still remains a gap in that there exist causal directions that are identifiable while the algorithm fails to identify them. In this work, we address this gap by exploring the identifiability of PB-SCM using the Probability Generating Function (PGF). By developing a compact and exact closed-form solution for the PGF of PB-SCM, we demonstrate that each component in this closed-form solution uniquely encodes a specific local structure, enabling the identification of the local structures by testing their corresponding component appearances in the PGF. Building on this, we propose a practical algorithm for learning causal skeletons and identifying causal directions of PB-SCM using PGF. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through experiments on both synthetic and real datasets.

Artificial intelligence systems are trained combining various observational and experimental datasets from different source sites, and are increasingly used to reason about the effectiveness of candidate policies. One common assumption in this context is that the data in source and target sites (where the candidate policy is due to be deployed) come from the same distribution. This assumption is often violated in practice, causing challenges for generalization, transportability, or external validity. Despite recent advances for determining the identifiability of the effectiveness of policies in a target domain, there are still challenges for the accurate estimation of effects from finite samples. In this paper, we develop novel graphical criteria and estimators for evaluating the effectiveness of policies (e.g., conditional, stochastic) by combining data from multiple experimental studies. Asymptotic error analysis of our estimators provides fast convergence guarantee. We empirically verified the robustness of estimators through simulations.

This paper studies off-policy evaluation (OPE) in the presence of unmeasured confounders. Inspired by the two-way fixed effects regression model widely used in the panel data literature, we propose a two-way unmeasured confounding assumption to model the system dynamics in causal reinforcement learning and develop a two-way deconfounder algorithm that devises a neural tensor network to simultaneously learn both the unmeasured confounders and the system dynamics, based on which a model-based estimator can be constructed for consistent policy value estimation. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed estimator through theoretical results and numerical experiments.